Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by morm

Plus as I've said ever since day 1 she didn't sit right with me

And that is what your entire argument against Cailin comes down to! Through the last two days, all you can state is a bad feeling, and dress it up with minor attacks that could be applied to anybody!

She's had a fairly innocuous track record on voting and what she says is moderately insightful but noncommittal.

As compared to the immense commitment and insight offered by posts from Gil, wayne, Naria and marco?

Nothing would please me greater than you coming up with an actual accusation based on some sort of logic, allowing me to believe in your innocence, morm. But until then - well, you're as plain a wolf as I've ever seen.

[Garin]

Unfortunately, I have a meeting in half an hour and I am torn in my voting. I want it to resonate but I am not convinced in either direction. I will avoid the whole coin tossing routine because it nearly got me lynched.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Garin

Unfortunately, I have a meeting in half an hour and I am torn in my voting. I want it to resonate but I am not convinced in either direction. I will avoid the whole coin tossing routine because it nearly got me lynched.

I would recommend not being late but also voting. The lack of voting will increase suspicion of you and not provide the village with help. I care not which way you vote though as I stated I feel Cailin is guilty, I think that everybody should vote every time.

[Garin]

I wouldn't mine if Wayne were to die, but I have to back away from my sudden sympathy for her and go for for the most wolvish. I still remember her reaction to Valier's death and how she presumed it made her innocent. It seemed like a calculated wolf bluff. Methinks Valier followed her to a certain doom.
These are unretractable, right?
I tend to be sympathetic at the last moment and I wish her the best.

++Cailin

[Cailín]

I feared it would come down to this. I did not want the wolves to be able to get rid of me during Day time. So enough. I cannot be saved anymore, I fear, but tell me what to do, please. Should I make it a double lynch?

I am the Ranger. And a failure, too, but the Ranger no less.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I feared it would come down to this. I did not want the wolves to be able to get rid of me during Day time. So enough. I cannot be saved anymore, I fear, but tell me what to do, please. Should I make it a double lynch?

I am the Ranger. And a failure, too, but the Ranger no less.

Ranger?

Well that's no good... Can't go killing the Ranger.

Regretably, that means voting off Wayne. And while I hardly think Wayne a Gifted, he's- in all probability- an Ordinary Villager, and killing those off is never good, if you can help it.

But we can't help it...

++ WayneTheGoblin.

By the way, if this is a desperate move on your part, Cailin, to save your Wolfish skin for yet another night, I shall be very affronted. Just so you know.

[malkatoj]

So current votes:

SPM: 2
-Glirdan
-Malka

Wayne: 6
-Wayne
-Gil-Galad
-Spawn
-Formendacil
-Cailin
-Marcolie

Cailin: 4
-Mormegil
-Nilp
-SpM
-Garin

Formendacil: 1
-Naria

Mormegil: 2
-TGWBS
-Kath



*edited to include the last two votes*

[Márcolië Lamen]

Wow

I disearve to be killed for lack of helping this village
however, I'll try to do my part still.

And I'll vote now for

++Waynethegoblin

in order to have the possibility to kill a wolf instead of the ranger.

Cailin probably won't survive the night, but we still shouldn't kill off known innocents.


I need to risk Cailin being a wolf trying to hide behind that mask in order to try to not kill off the known innocents.



edit: cross posted with Cailin though it doesn't matter

[Kath]

On the subject of non-voters I agree we need some system that discourages this. I don’t feel that double lynches are the way to go, but perhaps being bumped off by the mod if you have no reason might be. It’s probably too late to implement that though.

Cailin suspects Garin on account of his being constantly mentioned by Valier who was killed during the Night. Now, if we think that Valier was killed because she was thought to be the Seer then I’m not sure we can then suspect Garin, as it would be a brave wolf that killed someone who had been pointing fingers at him all day. Now it looks like she is accusing spawn and SpM (which is I believe how some people read that) but she is in fact just warning them of their ability to sway votes. This is a fair point as those who speak a lot are of course going to have more of an influence over the village than those who don’t, but it doesn’t mean they’re wolves. Thinks morm, Garin and spawn are wolves. I am inclined to agree about morm, but am less sure about Garin, and very unsure about spawn. Odd little list there. Thinks Glirdan innocent.

Formendacil turns up to insult the village and then flounces off. People have been accusing him of Cobbleresque behaviour and I must say that posts like that do make me wonder. Answers those who have been suspicious of him with flippant remarks and says he is too lazy to bother keeping up with the game but claims that were he a wolf he would bother. Warns against SpM, though reasoning is based only on the past. Disregards Naria’s vote and reiterates his warning about SpM. Not much reasoning but claims SpM could be the Cobbler.

Glirdan attacks SpM, though from what I can see he has no real reasons. The fact that SpM accused him through the Day but did not vote for him is odd, but he was not the first to vote for Shelob, so half the argument is missing. In answer to TGWBS he claims that his vote for SpM was to prevent both bandwagonning and double lynching (had he voted Valier), though it has been proved that the latter would not have occurred from his vote. He defends his vote by saying he suspected SpM all day anyway. After TGWBS catches him out, he claims that he has now noticed this and had previously miscounted the votes, now the two posts were 10 minutes apart so it is possible he went back and checked, but it could just be a shoddy defence. Tries to analyse Wayne’s vote and I agree with the idea that he could be trying to pull a Nilp, and thinks Gil is just voting for the sake of voting, which again I think is fair. Doesn’t agree with TGWBS that Nilp should be considered innocent but other than that thinks both he and Cailin are not suspicious. Not keen on Naria because she does no analysis or malka because she suspects one person but voted for another. Thinks morm has everything absolutely right, which from the bit he analysed means suspecting him is the right thing to do! Says nothing SpM has posted seems odd, but still doesn’t trust him – no reasoning here. Votes SpM because he was the first to vote for Shelob and Crombie (is that right) and has been too defensive.

TGWBS really isn’t happy about these voters who won’t affect anything, though admits that he voted for Shelob due to this and was proved wrong. He defends Nilp, and fairly I feel. Doesn’t suspect anyone who has voted for 2 innocents twice already, feeling that they’re just hapless innocents who don’t know any better, and agrees with Cailin about suspecting Garin. Is mostly suspicious of those who have remained quiet. Calls Glirdan out on his statement that a vote for Valier would have caused a double lynch. Would like to vote Glirdan, Wayne or Gil, due to lack of reasoning and insanity. Points out that those attacking Cailin know she can’t defend herself for a long time. Thinks Gil is trying to push suspicion off himself onto Wayne because the latter is quiet. Doesn’t suspect SpM. While analysing Cailin, can only find evidence that points to morm being suspicious due to his reactions and not explaining his reasoning for his constantly attacking Cailin. Votes morm, and from the analysis he did I can see why. The lack of explanations and almost vendetta like behaviour has me bothered. Attacks morm again for lack of logic and reason, and again I agree.

Wayne appears, apologises and votes for himself.

Gil appears 2 minutes later and votes for Wayne because he has no time. Says he thinks Wayne is a wolf and is trying to bluff us all.

Garin begins by refusing to defend himself against Cailin because she is mean. I’m not sure that is exactly fair, all she did was show that Valier had accused him in her posts. Says he voted for Shelob to save his own skin and agrees that the non-voters should be got rid of. What he says is perfectly understandable, it’s the way he says it that gets people on the defensive. Doesn’t like the idea of a double lynch and isn’t convinced that malka is innocent. Is happy to let Wayne die because he didn’t vote yesterDay and because he gives no reason for his vote. Decides to ignore Cailin’s aggressiveness (which I have yet to see) and says he will vote either Wayne or Gil because he won’t vote in retaliation. Refuses to vote SpM, wants to kill those who aren’t participating. If anyone’s aggressive I’d say it’s this guy right here! Thinks Form and Nilp innocent. Agrees with spawn that the Wayne-Gil thing seemed almost prearranged. Claims Cailin is very angry though I’ve not seen that.

Malka ensures she knows who’s dead Ah! It was malka that accused SpM of starting bandwagons, so my earlier comment about that being impossible is now directed at her. Wants people not to vote with SpM so he cannot control us, but does not think he’s a wolf. Well, ok, leaders aren’t always good, but as he says himself, we do need talkative people! No, we don’t have to trust them, but at least they’re saying enough that we can make something out of their words. And people have their own minds, whether they vote for someone another has already voted for is their own decision. Is quite keen on the idea of getting rid of Wayne and SpM via a double lynch, though she wants the whole village to agree to this first, which would be a good way of covering her tracks if this were done and both were innocent. Wants to get rid of Wayne but instead votes SpM ‘for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row’. Now either she has not understood the basic concepts of bandwagonning or this is one bizarre vote.

Morm sees Glirdan as very suspicious because of his argument for voting SpM instead of Valier, which I agree is pretty dodgy. Thinks Form is behaving oddly, again I agree. Wants to kill Wayne to remove the confusion he causes and while I think this may be an idea, making it into a double lynch I do not like. Double lynches are just too dangerous. Is then bothered by TGWBS’s requests for him to shed light on some of his previous comments, and seems overly annoyed about it. If the request was repeated then it was because TGWBS had received no answer, and so needed to ask again. However, he does answer, saying he found Cailin suspicious because she spoke a lot but added little, but then says she isn’t doing that anymore so his suspicion has abated. Then says he will continue to watch Cailin, but now seems to have no reason for doing so. Wants to keep malka under observation, in case her vote for Aiwendil was more than an accident, which I feel is a good idea, as while it could be an innocent mistake, it could be a bluff, though it is unlikely. Doesn’t understand the suspicion of SpM, and so looks at Glirdan and malka as suspicious as they have not really explained their votes. Thinks Cailin is trying to influence the village gently so as not to be seen doing it, now since she hasn’t made all that many posts at this point I’m not sure that’s fair. Votes Cailin based on his earlier reasoning. Since I found that flawed I don’t really think this a good vote. Thinks TGWBS innocent but misguided and stand by his accusation of Cailin because she is non-committal. I find this odd as I think she’s been pretty stable in her suspicions.

Naria explains her absence which she had previously warned about. Says she won’t analyse people since others do that but will post her thoughts. I would ask Naria that you do post your analyses, as those from others may be biased. Doesn’t like the double lynch idea. Thinks Form is suspicious and acting Cobblerish. Votes Form. She never did come post her thoughts about people, she may have forgotten but I find this odd.

Saucepan Man finds Valier’s death odd, and concludes that the wolves must have thought she was the Seer as there seemed no other reason. Therefore she must have accused a wolf, and this would point to Garin and also Wayne. Wonders if it was for a frame-up, but thinks this too much of an effort, and I agree, especially with it being so early on. Has a little rant to get things out of his system and that’s all good. I know I complain about loudmouths but that’s only because people don’t tend to look at them as being suspicious, and in this game that certainly isn’t the case! Is angry with Form for insulting the village, especially since he has offered few contributions of his own and those he does look decidedly suspicious. I must say I agree with this, Form is behaving very oddly. Defends not voting for Glirdan saying he didn’t want it to be a reactionary vote and that he found Shelob more suspicious, fair enough. Another one who is shocked at the voting turnout yesterDay, it was abysmal. Questions Glirdan’s having changed his mind over who to vote for and doesn’t think his answers to TGWBS’s questions really work, and again I agree. Also thinks Garin has been behaving rather arrogantly, but does defend him a little against Cailin, since he is obviously not going to do it himself. Feels that malka is innocent because she admitted her mistake rather than trying to cover it up. I’m not so sure about that. It sounds right though, I think I’m just getting paranoid! Would vote Wayne or Gil because they’re not helping but agrees that there is nothing concrete on them. Still thinks malka innocent. Disputes Glirdan’s logic, fairly I feel, as his logic does look flawed. Doesn’t think morm suspicious. Looks at TGWBS and Cailin because they brought up the suspicion against him, and is more worried about the latter because he thinks she may be subtly influencing the village. Thinks Nilp innocent but Form suspicious, I’m agreed on both points. Thinks spawn is talking sense and I agree but for that bit of confusion I mentioned. Narrows his options down to Cailin and Wayne, thinking that a wolf Wayne might try a Nilp to stay alive, but thinks it unlikely that both would be wolves so wouldn’t double lynch the two. Explains the development of his suspicion of Cailin, and fairly I feel, except that I don’t agree that she is trying to influence the village and so can’t accept that. Still unsure about Wayne. Also still unsure about Glirdan but thinks sticking to one person is the sign of an innocent rather than a wolf. Votes Cailin because he suspects her most. I respect the vote, as I understand how he got there with his reasoning, but as I don’t agree with the reasoning I can’t agree with the vote.

Marcolie apologises for her absence and claims ignorance for her lack of a vote.

Nilp thinks SpM and spawn are innocent, though perhaps not for good reasons. Thinks the wolves are killing the quiet ones so we will lynch the loudmouths for them, and if we continue in this vein that might just come true! Thinks those wanting SpM dead may be wolves, and so is looking at Glirdan, malka and Form. Thinks Cailin may indeed be influencing people subtly. Votes Cailin because he suspects her and because she already has a vote so it will be of the most use, though I’m unsure about that second point being a particularly valid argument.

Spawn warns against trying to escape responsibility for your vote and says those who vote SpM because of swaying will look bad to her. I agree, people have their own minds and can choose whether or not to be swayed by another’s arguments. Finds Glirdan and Cailin suspicious as they hung back on both days to observe the voting. Isn’t keen on the double lynch unless it rids us of two useless innocents, in which case perhaps Wayne and Gil? I wasn’t clear on that. Votes Wayne to make a tie. Odd but she says she wants to see where the voting goes.

Well, that got long! My apologies but I needed to really get a feel for what was going on today. Now, having looked through all the posts and putting my own viewpoint on things others have said my suspects have boiled down to:

Morm
Garin
Wayne

And I will vote
++MORMEGIL

Because I find his lack of reason and logic when he continually demands that from the very person he is voting for a bit hypocritical. Also other reasons that I have mentioned through this post but won’t reiterate because this is already so long I fear you’ll have fallen asleep long before this point!

Btw, didn't bold because this already took me an hour and I don't have time!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailin

But - is being non-commitical (just because you are honestly clueless) really worse than to keep acting on instinct when that will lead the village to its doom?

No it is not, but I don not believe that I am clueless. I am not act on instinct alone. I have attempted to give my reasons as to why I suspect you and as you say I won't believe you, it seems that you and TGWBS won't believe me.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

As compared to the immense commitment and insight offered by posts from Gil, wayne, Naria and marco?

Ah, but there is one major difference, Cailin is being vocal. Now read more so you know what I mean. A moderately vocal person is less noticeable than a loud or silent person. We all comment on the silent and louds but rarely do we say 'oh look so and so is being neither loud nor quiet...they must be mother bear. No, furthermore it's a large group of people. Now the difference between Cailin and say Kath is the manner of their posts. Cailin is giving the pretense of being helpful and yet not committing to anything. Kath may not be the best example but you get my meaning....perhaps I could contrast her to you, although you are becoming one of us loud mouths (welcome to our fraternity ) But the difference is that at least you are stating something and sticking your neck out to be seen. Cailin has yet to do that and fits perfectly into what I expect to see in wolves.