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#1 |
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Wight
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Nwy, land of the llamas
Posts: 109
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Poor Cailin, she saved the seer another night, and did her job. It really is too bad that she had to give herself away.
Looking through the voting pattern, it seems like everyone's either too quiet, like me, or voting for known innocents as of now. It is unnerving that Naria has yet to vote for a known innocent. Reading through the lists, I had never noticed how very little I'd been speaking. I knew it had been too few, but not as little as it is. And even more than this I didn't realise how few alot of us were speaking. Maybe we need to start voting for those being quiet, to see if people are trying to hide behind silence. Looking at posts compared to those alive. Well I can't figure out strikethrough, so I'll underline dead people. The Saucepan Man 32 the guy who be short 25 Cailín 24 Garin 22 mormegil 21 Glirdan 20 malkatoj 14 dancing spawn of ungoliant 13 Nilpaurion Felagund 11 Kath 9 Valier 8 Gil-Galad 7 Aiwendil 6 Formendacil 6 Shelob 6 WaynetheGoblin 5 Naria 5 Márcolië Lamen 4 AbercrombieOfRohan 4 From the bottom in those alive. Marcolie: me. I had an excuse for the first day, but thats all. I know I'd not be able to convince people of my innocence, so I'm not going to unless necessary, instead spend the same time looking at others. Naria. Looking at Naria I'm very suspicous because it seems like ther's not reason to. It would be such a strong position,and such an easy position to hide in. She's seemed to not go out of her way to do anything, which seems like something a wolf would have done this game, because its not necessary. Form To me it still seems like Form's the cobbler. She declares that's the one thing she's not, but is it not a cobbler who would try to confuse? I'd let Form live, at least for now, but not trust anything said...if there's anything we can analyse. Gil-Galad is a very odd player, and it seems like we can't figure out any of Gil's actions, yet this is normal. I'm not as nervous about Gil as Naria, or even Form because it seems like Gil we can understand, to some degree. This probably isn't a good thing to work off of, but the truth. Kath I'd be nervous of being a wolf, because i've always known of her intelligence. I'm not going to accuse her for anything when she can't be here to defend herself. Seems too unfair. Looking through the numbers, I'd expect, one wolf in that list. I don't think that all of them could get away being quiet, because people will be smart and not always be killing off the loud ones. One quiet wolf and two loud ones makes sense to me, but I'm not sure what the third one would be. I would beleive strongly though that there is one quiet wolf, and one loud one. If I had to guess wolves now from this I'd guess. quiet: Naria mainly for lack of voting for a known innocent loud: Garin mainly for repeated breaking of ties 'causing known innocents deaths. other: I'm not sure... It makes sense to me for Naria and Garin to be working together, at opposite ends of the spetrum, and then someone else in between.
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Here there be turtle-dragons
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#2 | |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Sadly most of my day will be spent interviewing potential apprentice-smiths (AKA I'm conducting job interviews all day) so I may not be able to make it back to vote, let alone catch up on the reading. While I am understanding of the suspicion on Naria I think I will stick to my guns with Formendacil for a couple of reasons. His answer is not satisfactory, in my mind and we need to spread the voting out between 4 or so candidates. Gil is tempting as well for multiple reasons, not least of which is his unhelpfulness but nay I will not vote him yet as he's likely innocent. Therefore: ++Formendacil
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#3 |
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Wight
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Nwy, land of the llamas
Posts: 109
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votes thus far
Kath -> mormegil Nilp -> Gil Glirdan -> Gil morm->Form we probably want to vote for one more person, and then see if we can between 4 people get a wolf to finally come out of voting. I'd say we should vote for Naria but I'm not ready to cast a vote yet. Though I'm debating to so that I we would have four people voted for, already, its not worth it.
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Here there be turtle-dragons
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#4 |
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Mischievous Candle
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As promised, I did some research of the quieter ones, and came up with analysis of Naria and malkatoj (although the latter has been pretty vocal).
Day 1: Naria weeps the loss of Meneltarmacil and says that the Day 1 is rather random, and that's about all we get out of her. She promises to make a post later with a vote, though. Indeed, at the end of the Day we get 21 words forming an apology for lateness and a vote for Nilp (and it's a reasoned vote, too: "Too crazzzy!!"). Day 2: *silence* Day 3: Naria says she had a perfectly good excuse for not posting. Fair enough. She also says that she was fairly quiet in her last game, three posts a day at tops (I'm not sure why she's telling this... does it mean that once you are a silent villager, you'll always be a silent villager?) "I will not analyse anyone for there is enough people doing a good enough job already." ~Naria Apparently it wasn't good enough since we haven't caught a wolf yet. In any case, that's a really weird thing to say. Did she know that we were way off of the real culprits and she thought she'd sit back watching us 'barking up the wrong tree' as we were already doing it so well? Why does she refuse to share her thoughts? "I will however post a personal thought about each player later on." ~Naria I'm still waiting for that post to come. Naria thinks the idea of a double lynching sounds wolvish. She says that if a double lynching happens, then it happens but it shouldn't be planned. I disagree with this. I think accidental double lynchings don't really serve the purpose. A wolf can hide behind an "accident" and if we decrease our numbers twice the amount as usually in one Day, it should be discussed together. Naria explains why she's quiet. She says she trusts her gut feelings since she's not good at reading between the lines. Her post #206, doesn't look that suspicious to me although I'm not sure when she said that "I do think that he [Formendacil] is acting Cobblerish and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this." She has just said that she wants to keep her own mind about voting, but the she wishes to get some support. I don't know... All in all Naria seems quite suspicious to me now and I'd really like her to post more her thoughts even if they are gut feelings. *** Day 1: Malkatoj is eager to get rid of Wayne and Gil. "I think our best bet today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence." ~malkatoj The next thing she says is that she's almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, though. Later she votes for Wayne for the reasons she explained earlier. Day 2: "I'm also inclined to think, like Wayne and Gil, it's just Garin being Garin--in the last game he acted in this manner as well." ~malkatoj She suggests the good old 'wolves are in the bandwagon' theory although points out Shelob's safe vote (why only Shelob?). She says she meant Kath with her vote for Aiwendil and although some people would seem to think her as innocent after this, I'm not so sure. Day 3: Malkatoj is irritated because Wayne is still alive (although she has said all the time that he's probably innocent). She says that Sauce started both Shelob and Abercrombie bandwagons. "Even if you don't vote for him [Sauce], don't vote with him--innocent or no, it's dangerous to let one person have so much power over us." ~malkatoj Wow. That's quite a statement: Do not listen to The Saucepan Man. Nice piece of propaganda there. Malkatoj wants both Sauce and Wayne dead, but is uncertain, what to do. Asks a public opinion of double lynching and says she'd like to have it. She votes for Sauce "for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row". Now, both ladies are looking rather suspicious to me and so do their votes. It's probably a safest vote ever to cast it for someone who already has votes, but who's not going to get lynched that Day. On Day 1, malkatoj voted for Wayne giving him a third vote when Valier already had three and Abercrombie had 5. Naria, for one, gave Nilp a third vote just at the end of the Day. I think I will probably vote for either of them toDay.
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Fenris Wolf
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#5 |
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Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
Posts: 331
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I'm glad to see the Downs is no longer a porn link. I have previously fretted about posting at work and yesterday I thought I was doomed when it appeared the subject matter had changed from middle earth to doggy-style.
Back into character: I regret not posting last night, I truly appreciate all that have looked at the silent ones, I also agree that one of them should die. It is, however, interesting that Márcolië Lamen has attempted to recover from her silence and finally started to participate. Her points about Naria, sort of make sense but It really could apply to all of the silent ones. It is obviously an attempt to save herself. It is my initial desire to dismiss what she says since she has missed a vote or two. However, I thought I would vote for Gil following yesterday's debacle. I don't know.. points about Malkatoj make sense. I wasn't able to get to our village last night and now I am preoccupied with truffle hunting, it is much like digging for gold... very random, and tiresome. My posts will be few but I will vote and put myself on the record unlike others.
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I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" |
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#6 | |
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Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
Posts: 331
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I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" Last edited by Garin; 02-10-2006 at 10:57 AM. |
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#7 |
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Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
Posts: 331
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In fact, I found the post to be wolvish enough and I have too much work to do that I will vote now:
++Márcolië Lamen
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I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" |
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#8 | ||
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Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Professional obligations discharged, I am back.
Reviewing today's discussions, I thought that I ought to answer this because it is an interesting point: Quote:
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++NARIA Basically for the reasons that I stated earlier. Nothing that I have seen so far alters my view on her. She has been laying low and placing "safe" votes, a sensible tactic for a Wolf in light of the way the voting has gone so far. Also, a few of the things said today (particularly by spawn) have reinforced my suspicions. Her lack of presence today might be viewed as overly risky behaviour for a Wolf, but (if she is a Wolf) it seems to have worked for her so far. Of course, now that I have voted for her, she will probably turn out to be innocent - given my track record so far. ![]() Edit: Cross-posted with Garin.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#9 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I'm here!! Luck just isn't on my side. I was on earlier and was doing up my post when the power went out. We had a wicked snow storm earlier this morning and it knocked some lines down.
I really do hope that nothing else happens. I would like to participate more. Well here's my gut feelings: Morm--unsure of right now Garin-- not too many thoughts right now just that he seems to be quite agreeable this game, maybe a new way of playing? Nilp--starting to make sense. kinda Spawn--unsure of right now SPM--hard to read, just like his posts. Can't put my finger on Malka--haven't put too much thought into her yet, which is probably not a good thing Gil--has made me uneasy since the quick vote after Wayne Glirdan--confused about, something isn't sitting right Marcolie--unsure of right now Form--have stated my thoughts of him Kath--same as Malka TGWBS--leary of |
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#10 |
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Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
Posts: 331
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Real quick, re: Mormegil, I like him but don't trust him, as much as it pains me. (I had a little time to read his posts, and had an uncomfortable feeling.)
I have, however, already, posted a vote. I still think Marc is simply reacting to a call for the deaths to the silent and trying to avoid a lynch. I have voted and feel secure in my vote.
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I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" |
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#11 | |||||||||||
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Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
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First off, I will probably be voting mormegil. But first, I want to deliver the promised analyses and see if anything sways my mind. Indeed, Naria's silence, along with many others, has not left the back of mind for some time. Nor has Gil's vote for wayne. But a personal analysis is always the best analysis, and I want to find out exactly why these people are being killed today.
All this is coming. Firstly, I wish to post my suspicions of mormegil and lay them open to the entire village. This post constitutes my first attack on morm. Here follow the main points: Quote:
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I pointed out that Cailin's comment that allegedly influenced the lynching of Shelob... Quote:
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He votes for Cailin when she has said explicitly that she will not be able to return, and so cannot form a defence. Quote:
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In conclusion, I quote myself: Quote:
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#12 | ||||||
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Mischievous Candle
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Anyway, if we are trying to rid ourselves of the silent ones, why to kill someone who has just started talking?
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Fenris Wolf
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#13 | ||
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Dead Serious
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Anyway, it's resolved, so on to the serious matters at hand, in which I shall probably and purposefully irritate some the great minds of the 'Downs. Quote:
Yes, don't trust anything I say. But really, don't trust anything that ANYBODY says. No seer has come forward to reveal us any known innocents, so NOBODY is in the clear, meaning that EVERYBODY is suspect, and their words should be taken with great caution, and their statements should only be believed when verifiable. Trust no one! On other matters, I'm disappointed by Morm's vote for me, but hardly surprised at all. Certainly, I'm not insulted. After all, since I'm no good at reading the fine print on pages of Werewolf, I am a very poor in-depth analysier of posts, hence I tend to base my playing on what FEELS right, and on what I've experienced of other players in the past. And, since I'm playing quite differently than Morm is normally used to, I would be a hypocrite indeed if I didn't find him justified in voting for me. Still disappointed though... And, speaking of Morm, I find today's higher levels of Morm suspicion to be most interesting. I'm going to toss in my thoughts on the matter... Quite frankly, Morm SEEMS normal to me on face value. However, there are definitely differences in his normal mode of playing, differences that I find significant. First of all, Morm is not as verbose as normal. This isn't necessarily incriminating, but it is interesting. Perhaps he's busier than he used to be. I know I am. Perhaps, however, he's a Werewolf trying for a lower profile than he usually has. Secondly, I'm waiting for him to come up with some big, everybody-analyse-the-next-person-on-the-list sort of thing, or maybe him to put forward a list of generally known innocents, and try to orchestrate a fixed lynch. Maybe he's learning from experience, or maybe he's taken my past berations to heart, or maybe he doesn't have time... or maybe he's a Werewolf... but this seems very un-Mormish to me. Well, that's enough for now. I'll be back later to vote. Or not.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#14 | |
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Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
Posts: 331
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Quote:
__________________
I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" |
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#15 |
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Mischievous Candle
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I have to vote now. Hmph.
The votes thus far are: Kath -> mormegil Nilp -> Gil Glirdan -> Gil mormegil -> Formendacil Garin -> Márcolië Sauce -> Naria Naria -> Formendacil Score: Formendacil-2, Gil-2, Márcolië-1, mormegil-1, Naria-1 If morm is a wolf, why didn't he put Gil clearly on the lead to save himself? Or maybe he has his comrades waiting if he needs to be saved because it could have looked overly defensive to vote for Gil in his position. What should I do then? Make a tie, perhaps, for tradition's sake? TGWBS presents a sound case, but I feel hesitant to vote for morm because I haven't analysed his posts myself yet. Although maybe that's just why I should vote for him, really. ![]() Ah, well. ++malkatoj May we have some luck at last. edit: Cross-posted with TGWBS and Garin, if someone's interested to know.
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Fenris Wolf
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#16 | |||
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Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
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Morm
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#17 |
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Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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I'm sorry, but I have to say this. To date, I have trusted you and seen the sense in much of what you have been saying, TGWBS. I saw the sense in your case against mormegil yesterday, even though I did not agree with it. It was clearly and logically stated. Yet your case against morm today seems to have transformed into something of a single-minded persecution of him, and it unnerves me.
I felt much the same way as mormegil yesterday about Cailin. That is why I voted for her, although I am not sure that I expressed my reasons with any more precision than morm did. I reached that view entirely independently, before I had seen what mormegil had to say about her (on Day 3 at least). Admittedly, his opinion on her seemed to validate my own, but we all draw comfort from the fact that others are thinking along the same lines as we are, do we not? I am not saying that morm is innocent. But I do have the sense that he, like me, is one who has been trying his best to find a Wolf but making wrong choices at every turn. And that he has had less time than he is accustomed to to do so. I appreciate that, if morm is lynched and turns out to be a Wolf, these words may well condemn me. But I am prepared to take that risk, for I have a feeling that he is innocent.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#18 | |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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*sigh*
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__________________
“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#19 | |||
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Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
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That said, while I do suspect Naria, Marco and Formen, the focus of my day remains morm. Quote:
As to how that affects my beliefs... well, put simply, I saw no reason to suspect Cailin, and it surprises me that you, SpM, did. I don't think you are a wolf - much the opposite infact - but that seems odd. Perhaps I simply missed something with regards to her. But I still think morm is guilty. Quote:
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#20 | |
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Wight
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I'd like to thank SpM for defending Morm. He (Mormegil) really doesn't seem wolfish, and I don't quite understand why you all think he does. If anyone would like to try to convince me of his wolfishness, feel free to try in the hour we have left. Also, SpM, that post lowered you on my 'suspicious' list, simply because I believe Morm to be innocent. Thought I'd let you know.
On the other hand--Naria. Oh, Naria. You were completely under my radar until this list: Quote:
TGWBS: I hate to repeat SpM, but that post accusing (continuing to accuse) Morm seems completely unreasonable, jumpy and randomly accusatory? So, my list right now: INNOCENT Malkatoj PROBABLY INNOCENT Saucepan Man Mormegil Formendacil Nilpaurion UNKNOWN (or just under my radar, which is almost more suspicious) Glirdan Garin Kath Marcolie Gil-Galad WOLFISH Dancing Spawn Naria TGWBS With less than an hour left, I cast my vote for today for ++NARIA Edit-note: Cross posted with Morm, SpM and TGWBS
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Now, mostly dead is slightly alive. Now, all dead...well, with all dead, there's usually only one thing that you can do--Go through his clothes and look for loose change. Last edited by malkatoj; 02-10-2006 at 03:14 PM. |
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