WWJ IV: Let the insanity ensue

[Elu Ancalime]

Hmm...well, I think I kinda have an idea of whats going on....in context, anyway...
So it sounds like Nogrod and Roa have been going back in forth exchanging theories...and Mith and Valier have been more solid (which is more tha I can say about my self, I regret to admit), and it looks like Mith will have something on Jenny soon. Firefoot seems to be normal-rational, patient.

I can formulate my own suspicoins of what is going on right now, but they are not concrete and I need to read over again, just to clarify what's been said and the 'feelings' i guess.

So, um, would anybody like to make a quick summary of whats happened so far today? (since we have......2/3 hours depending on Kitanna's timeframe, and I want to put in a reasonable vote; its dangerously risky now.) My vote is (equally important with the other villagers) crucial today, and I dont want to be a random/gut feeling/flimsy accusation/wrong comprehension. Thank you....
________
Extreme q

[Firefoot]

This would have taken much less time if I had not been called away from my computer... urgh...

Jenny:

Post 5
Randomly accuses Sleepy, Elu, and Roa. To foster discussion?

Post 10
Randomly accuses Eonwe. Asks Mithalwen for a biscuit (still don’t know how much there is to this).

Post 12
Suggests lynching the last person to contribute to the discussion.

Post 16
An analysis apparently based largely on occupation. Lommy, Sleepy, Roa, Nogrod, Elu and Folwren are suspicious, Gandalf, Wilwa, and Valier are in between, me, Jenny, and Mithalwen are innocent in this list.

Post 26
She advises spreading out the vote, making sure we understand our information, and looking closely at anyone who talks a lot. She comments about my contradictiveness, a point that she has “stolen” from Mithalwen, who she seems to mention a lot. A wolf using an innocent? I don’t think it is a wolf relying too much on a fellow wolf anymore, as I am thinking Mithalwen is innocent.

Post 30
She seems to go back on some of her statements in the previous post, revising them a little bit to make them seem more acceptable to people. This quote is rather… interesting: “I mean, really, if I were a wolf, it seems obvious that it would be stupid to be quite so vociferous. It certainly seems to bring suspicion immediately on my head, which is not at all my intention, as I am innocent.” Well, a wolf wouldn’t want to bring suspicion on themselves either. In fact, this quote seems to suggest strongly to me that perhaps she is a wolf saying how she could be doing things differently. Perhaps strategy A seemed not to be working?

Post 36
Advises Sleepy to be more careful in ascribing quotes to the wrong people. Defends herself to Folwren. Generally, she seems pretty defensive – because she has something to hide?

Post 40
Gratitude to Folwren for elaborating.

Post 44
Advises Sleepy not to give up as if he would be innocent then lynching him would not be in the best interest of the village. If she is a wolf, this would be a good thing to say to make her look innocent, but since this is her first game… it seems to speak in her favor.

Post 47
Apologizes for mixing up Lommy’s gender

Post 51
States voting thus far. Repetition of how good Mithalwen’s muffins are. (Is it just me who finds this really odd?)

Post 61
Request for clarification on some people’s points.

Post 66
Votes Wilwa to save herself and for her quietness. Fair enough, I suppose.

Post 70 & 72
Both one-liners about the status of the voting.

Post 98
An explanation of her absence and the previous day’s vote. Seems pretty fair to me.

Hm... I'm still not really sure. Some things seem to point to her guilt, others to her innocence. She's not nearly as suspicious as some others.

Okay, I'm going to start on Nogrod but it will take a while... he's posted a lot. So you may get it in halves depending on how long it takes.

Valier - I still do not see why Mithalwen is suspicious to you. All you said about Mith in that post was this:

Like I said yesterday there are key players and YES I did say they are normally loud innocents and YES I still voted for Mith. As for my vote for her it was because I really was confused and voted for someone who I really felt at the time could be a wolf.

That tells me nothing about why.

[Firefoot]

Actually, I take back what I said about trying to do one of those analyses about Nogrod right now. I want to have time to do it right, and he currently has 42 posts - many of them long. I would like to take a closer look but I think it will wait until tomorrow. If I die tonight... well, you know where I was headed. Someone else will have to look it all up.

I think a reread of both Nogrod's and Roa's recent posts will serve me better right now. Going into it I am still feeling that Roa is innocent but I will try to read objectively. I'll let you know what I find.

[Nogrod]

Just to inform you all of my doubts so far. Read and think. I myself will be sticking to Roa for a vote tonight.

Roa is a werewolf. My open accusations against her weren’t any fool-proof to begin with, but she meddled everything herself by defending very poorly, making mistakes in almost every post and slipping all the time. Of her guilt I’m positive. Believe me.

My suspicions against Firefoot

1) At early on the game, she was propably even too eager to be at good terms with Folwren – who she had had to know to be a good player (and if she were a wolf, also innocent). And she managed the first day, and liked to point out her being along the same lines with Folwren. After Folwren was killed, she would be seen as her friend, not as her killer.
2) Lining up heavily with Roa, who is a wolf. Just check the posts of this morning and day. She may say, that it would be stupid for wolves to help one another. But it would be very cunning to just actually do it, and then claim innocense on the basis that it would be stupid to act like that, especially when they would really gain on that co-operation! And it’s not a small gain they would reach with this co-op., for these wolves know the situation. And I do fear, that most of us villagers don’t see it!!! With active posting, it is 4 villagers against 3 wolves now. And if Jenny stays away because of the RL, it could be 3-3! They can afford even to reveal themselves, if just today’s vote will lynch an innocent! After next night, the situation would be 3-2 (Jenny being counted again), for the wolves + two sleeping villagers, which both would be needed actively coming in the next day. That I think we can all doubt. The wolves know this. (Anyone believing that Gandalf will really read all that has happened after his last visit, and then be defending the village with a grand effort?)
3) Being as clever and great player as she is, I just can’t believe her not seeing the downfall of Roa during the day. Roa clearly made mistakes the whole day, and kind of underlined my open accusations. If Firefoot would be an ordo, she would have changed her mind to clear facts opening before her eyes. There seems to be other motives behind...
4) Take Firefoot’s message #201 and read it carefully, in the light of the overall situation. Quite wolfish to me. Even pre-seeing my point on 3.

Anyhow: I don’t exactly know, that Firefoot is a wolf. There is a chance, that she is well meaning villager, but one that has consistently been able to ignore the right hints, and has had a totally misinformed interpretation of the overall situation. But I would still stress the case 3 above.

My suspicions against Mithalwen

1) At the early stages some gut-based uncomfortabliness, not more. Not much to go after anyhow. Although I wondered for a second or two last night whether I should vote for her before she voted anyone. Wasn’t so sure about the sanity of such a “random-action”, and we played as we played.
2) Being at Firefoot’s list of probably innocent people brought her to my mind again (see up: Firefoot, case 2).
3) Her clear abstinence today – that was broken only after I made a slight provocation against her to see, whether she would react or not.
4) The rest you can read from the evening’s posts.

I’m very anxious about Mith. There is something, but I’m not sure.

My suspicions against Valier

1) Read the posts of Roa and Firefoot and Mith. You can interpret this unanimity either way. Maybe they have good grounds to suspect her, maybe they show a sign of wolves bandwagoning... You must read it yourselves.
2) A bit weird behaviour, sure. Generates suspicion, but nothing of more value up to this point.

I don’t know about her.

[Valier]

You could be right Nogrod about Firefoot, But I think she could be the lead wolf for reasons I stated before. You want us to trust you that Roa is a wolf, I agree with alot of your points but I don't know if I feel "safe" going with you on that. I will probably vote for Firefoot unless something more substantial comes up before the vote deadline.


P.S I wonder how many no votes we will have today.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Valier

I will probably vote for Firefoot unless something more substantial comes up before the vote deadline.

I do share your concern about Firefoot, but I am not so certain about her guilt as to vote her on the knowledge I have right now.

Read the discussion between me and Roa from earlier and think again, who's the obvious one.

We have time to look at Firefoot tomorrow - if I'm still alive by then. (Most probably not. But read my earlier messages the better then.)

[Firefoot]

I'm not done with my reading yet so I'm not going to comment on that. Nogrod... you're suspicions of me seem rather far-fetched to me. I honestly don't see what's wolvish about my post 201. Another thing... I've never played werewolf with Folwren before - ever. I've never even read along with any games she's played in - a similar statement that I can make about most of the players in this game. Mithalwen is the only one I know for sure that I have played with. I had pretty open opinions coming into this game. When I had to be absent for most the discussion on Day 1, I was able to look at that as a whole, and Folwren's arguments made a lot of sense to me. You can say that I'm just saying that but it's true.

I'm not lining up with Roa. She has seemed to be making more sense to me than you. I have agreed to go back and read both of your arguments objectively, and you call that post wolvish.

Your suspicions against Mithalwen seem extremely flimsy to me as well.

[Mithalwen]

Well Nogrod, we can't all be wolves so you have to be wrong about at least one of us.... and if abstinence means I didn't say how high when you asked me to jump without looking, well so be it.

[Mithalwen]

Firefoot has evaluated Jenny, but can we really just ignore Eonwe and Gandalf?

There is a possibility that we are all innocents picking on each other..... unlikely since Jenny seems more hapless beginner than hapless wolf..... but theoretically possible.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Firefoot has evaluated Jenny, but can we really just ignore Eonwe and Gandalf?

There is a possibility that we are all innocents picking on each other..... unlikely since Jenny seems more hapless beginner than hapless wolf..... but theoretically possible.

Before you ask, why I say you seem to be ever more suspicious, let me answer with this quote.

Time is drawing near, and you want to start idle speculations from days ago. Do you come up with a real accusation against those silent ones.

Remember: we can't afford guessing this day!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Well Nogrod, we can't all be wolves so you have to be wrong about at least one of us.... and if abstinence means I didn't say how high when you asked me to jump without looking, well so be it.

Surely. I said, I am positive about Roa. Heavily suspicious about Firefoot and having concern & doubts about you and Valier. There is room for mistakes. I have admitted that there already. Even my maths are not so bad as to take four as three...

[Mithalwen]

Obviously not an accountant ...there is only one accountancy joke...

Q What is 2+2?

A What do you want it to be?

[Nogrod]

Firefoot.

Whatever you are saying, you are still defending both Roa and Mith. Added to that Mith's ever increasing suspiciousness, is telling me quite enough.

And don't try that "it would be stupid to guard one another as wolves". The wolves really can afford it now. Especially as there seems to be no traces of Jenny, Eonwe or Gandalf to participate. It's your field now. And one can see it from your boldness.

[Firefoot]

Okay, call me inept but I honestly do not see Roa as terribly suspicious. The biggest impression that I have gotten from reading the conversation as a whole is that Nogrod seems determined to paint Roa as a wolf. I still am not sure whether Nogrod is innocent or guilty. Certainly I won't be voting for him toDay, but I will be looking into it. If the villagers didn't have so much to lose right now, I would say that we could learn a lot by his death whether he was innocent or guilty. Okay, more if he was guilty.

Sorry I have to cut it a little short, but I have to go in about 20 minutes. Unless I am persuaded otherwise by then, my vote will probably go to Valier.

[Eonwe]

Do we seriously only have one vote?

I'm back, and not altogether happy. Ranger and Hunter killed. 6-3, as the score stands. But we are not altogether without hope: the seer has a couple konwn innocents (four, I believe). It could be time for you to do a bit of serious thinking. We do have a bit of time, though we'd best get cracking...

I haven't read the half of it, and as I only have ten minutes, I will not be able to.

Impressions

Nogrod is playing in a very aggressive manner. He is either in very close alliance with another loud villager (wolf), or is putting the village's good before his own in a very courageous manner.

Jenny is still not cleared by me. Though she doesn't seem to have made an appearance yet.

Firefoot has put up a good showing for herself. There should be allot to sift through tomarrow.

I'm really sorry, but I can't really do or say anything, as I have no idea what is going on.

Other than that, I'm not too surpised at Sleepy's or Folwren's deaths.

God save our seer.

EDIT: Well that is nice of you Kitanna. I was going to vote Jenny, but will hold off on that for now, until I can collect my thoughts...