Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Aiwendil]

Gramercy! We've lost the Seer already!?

Well, we're dealing either with a pack of brilliantly perceptive wolves or a pack of bloody lucky ones. I must say I neither expected poor Holbytlass to be lynched nor had any idea she might be the Seer.

This makes much of the Day 1 discussion (centering around the roles of the two Seers) seem completely wasted. And up to a few minutes ago I thought it had been unusually productive.

Well, we must move on. Anguirel is right, meseems, that the False Seer is now completely useless and should probably come forward.

The Day 1 voting record needs to be looked at carefully. There are some things about it that bother me. First of all, there's the fact that Gil-Galad was lynched. I can, to an extent, understand why somebody might vote for him; but I think there were others who looked far more suspicious.

Of more concern to me, though, are the votes against Boromir. I'm afraid I don't understand the basis for the suspicion of him at all. I agree with what Anguirel said yesterday about his posts seeming more helpful than they actually were. But to me, that seems to be a far cry from substantial evidence. I don't consider Ang's vote particularly suspicious, since (it being Day 1) there was little to go on, and we were endeavouring the spread the votes around. But I'm worried by the way Formendacil, Garin, and LMP seem to have latched on to that and made a nearly succesful effort to get Boromir lynched. In the event, they failed - but they did force Boromir to vote for Gil, thereby ensuring Gil's death.

I said yesterday that LMP struck me as the most genuinely helpful villager. When I look back at his posts, they still look that way to me. But I have a hard time reconciling that with his vote for Boromir, and his apparent sudden, fervent conviction that Boromir should be lynched. Still, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, on the basis of his general helpfulness yesterDAY.

That leaves me with Formendacil and Garin; both look fairly suspicious to me right now. Perhaps they'd care to explain their votes?

The other person I'll be watching carefully today is Tar-Ancalime. YesterDAY, she was my top suspect. While I admit that the DAY 1 evidence was slim, I still can't help but feel that she has been "testing" various approaches (moratorium on Seer talk, suspicion of Spawn) and then very quickly backing off when they come under fire. Her vote for Eomer looks like a typical, random DAY 1 vote - but it also looks like a fairly safe vote for a Wolf.

YesterDAY, I also suspected Glirdan, largely because he looked like a Wolf playing a fairly safe game. While I have no reason to change that opinion, and therefore I still consider him a possible suspect, the other people I have mentioned now look more Wolvish to me, overall.

So the people I intend to look at especially closely toDAY are Form, Garin, and Tar.

Edit: Crossed with Mormegil and Glirdan.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But I'm worried by the way Formendacil, Garin, and LMP seem to have latched on to that and made a nearly succesful effort to get Boromir lynched. In the event, they failed - but they did force Boromir to vote for Gil, thereby ensuring Gil's death.

Latched onto it?

My dear Aiwendil, I do not deny that the fact that Anguirel had just voted for Boromir played a part in my choice to vote for him. As a matter of fact, it played a very major role in things. It was my intention to even the number of candidates up for lynching who were tied. At that point, I believe that Gil and one other villager (not sure who) were at two votes each- but I'm not positive on that count. It was my intention, therefore, to add another candidate to the leading number of ballots, going along with the school of thought that suggests that spreading the votes around makes for better next-day analysis.

And yes, it was a bit of a "safe" vote in that respect- but I remind you that Day 1s are typically devoid of logical reasons for voting, and since no one in the village had made an obvious slip like saying "I am a Werewolf", if I wished to have my vote to serve a purpose it made more sense to level the voting field a little than to try and find someone suspicious.

And, for what it's worth, I did find Boromir to be slightly out of character... but that could be an absence of time as much as anything else.

Now, on the subject of the dead seer, we are really in a fix here, since the Seer would only have had one dream before her death that we can find clues to- if she even left any! From my own stint as Seer, I know it's possible that she didn't even leave any at all.

And, even if we DO find this one innocent/guilty villager, that's not a lot of help...

[Garin]

This is a hard pill to swallow. This cannot be a coincidence, we have some cunning wolves in our midst. Either that or they are extremely lucky. Nonetheless, this was their victory and I mourn the dead seer.

Oh, Gil too...

That being said...

I had no intention of joining any bandwagon yesterday. I just couldn't get back into the village until late. We had 3 main contenders in the vote and I chose one. I didn't bury my vote early on or make a safe vote for someone who hadn't a chance of being lynched. I chose, using what meager evidence was presented, the most suspicious candidate. I didn't think Gil was a wolf, but I wanted to kill Gil because he is Gil. Not a good enough reason. The only reason I then wanted to vote for Lhuna was to even up the votes and force those telling "late wolf votes."

Which, brings us to Boromir...

His frantic last minute posts and his vote brings back memories from a past life.
Does no one else find those posts distressing?

I will attempt to address them in detail when I leave the bakery today.