Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But, being able to know where lmp is coming from I'm inclined to believe he is telling the truth.

Your understanding does you credit. But I have a feeling that you are having a Woolly Wolfskin pulled over your eyes. Call me a cynic, but lmp's lament just seems far too self-serving and convenient to me, at a time when he looked likely to come under suspicion. And I was struck by his wallowing (whether in self-pity or remorse) when, if he is innocent, his time here would be better served actually trying to find a Wolf. Sorry, but I just don't buy it.

I realise that, in my analysis of lmp's vote for Lhuna, I did not take account of the fact that Kath could yet have voted. however, it would have made no difference. Lhuna's fate was sealed by the time lmp voted for her.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Aiwendil: Farael has made some intriguing posts and I keep on coming back to the same thing I've noticed and others have noticed...Aiwendil's been cleverly getting us to look at lmp, without making a full commitment saying he's a wolf.

Yes, I thought so too. So I took the liberty of looking back over Aiwendil's contributions over Days 1 and 2. And I can really see nothing in them to concern me. He has seemed sensible and willing to help find these fiends throughout. Which might, I suppose, be regarded as suspicous in itself. But I don't think that it's nearly enough to go on. There are others looking far more suspicious at the moment, to my mind. Farael's case, as far as I can see, boils down to an observation that Aiwendil has continually put forward ideas (whether strategies or suspects) and then backed off from them. I don't think that this fully characterises Aiwendil's contribution but, to the extent that there is any merit in it, I think that is Aiwendil's way - a tendency to over-analyse and see both sides of an argument. I can sympathise because I sometimes have the same problem. As for his supposed "flip-flopping" on lmp, given that I think that lmp is a Wolf I don't see any force in this at all. If they are fellow Wolves, Aiwendil has not exactly been doing his companion many favours.

And while Farael's posts may be intriguing as far as Aiwendil is concerned, they have not exactly been helpful in many other respects. He has focussed almost entirely on one villager. There are (currently) 13 other villagers, and three Wolves on the loose. It seems to me that he would better serve the village by looking for all of them, not just the one that he thinks he has found.

Indeed, the more I think about it, the more I think that it would be a fairly sensible Wolfish tactic to concentrate on one target, for that way he does not risk incriminating his Wolfish colleagues and avoids incriminating himself when innocents are lynched. His single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil has enabled him to avoid much suspicion to date and seemingly rather given him a cloak of innocence. Of course, he will look bad if Aiwendil is lynched and found to be innocent, but perhaps it is intended that he will then serve as a sacrifice to cover his fellows.

Now, I need to take a look at Eomer. I am not going to be around much tomorrow, so I want to collect my thoughts tonight as much as I can.