Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Farael]

Originally Posted by SPM

Indeed, the more I think about it, the more I think that it would be a fairly sensible Wolfish tactic to concentrate on one target, for that way he does not risk incriminating his Wolfish colleagues and avoids incriminating himself when innocents are lynched. His single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil has enabled him to avoid much suspicion to date and seemingly rather given him a cloak of innocence. Of course, he will look bad if Aiwendil is lynched and found to be innocent, but perhaps it is intended that he will then serve as a sacrifice to cover his fellows.

Alright, I'll come clean now... no, I'm not a wolf by a long shot, but on Day 1 I was just having fun. I chose the villager who looked most suspicious to my eyes and made a case against him. The problem is, as I went through my 'case' I started finding some things that made me feel uneasy. On Day 2, I was rather convinced that there's something fishy with Aiwendil, but toDay I have a different idea.

I have exposed my doubts on the Aiwendil-LMP situation. Aiwendil is quick to raise some suspicions and even quicker to exonerate him... which has me thinking is likely a well thought-out wolfish plan. What I find most intriguing is that he actually has some suspects (other than LMP) from which he demands answers... and yet any comments from LMP seem to erase his thoughts. Of course, we could be dealing with a very empathic innocent villager, but I think I have a plan to put forward

It is still early and we are many innocents. Now is the time to take on risks, because the more we wait, the more difficult and costly it will be should we make a mistake. Now, I assume we all agree that LMP's behaviour has been far from easy to gauge. He will continue to be a distraction as days go on. I will leave it to others who have been paying closer attention to LMP to dig up information against him, if they feel like it, as I don't have time to do it myself right now. But given that my suspicions of Aiwendil are based mostly on his 'relationship' with LMP, today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.

Yet I'm not saying let's condemn LMP just yet, I would appreciate it if someone (other than me) analised his behaviour. I dont have time to do it right now and I doubit I will have time tomorrow

I realize you could think this as a response on those criticizing me for going after Aiwendil only but.... if you think about it, this would be an excelent way of digging up even more information about Aiwendil

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.

If it's information on Aiwendil you want, then it's Aiwendil you should vote for. It's an unfortunate fact of the game that the only accurate information comes from death.

But the second half of your statement is, while a little cold-blooded, intriguing. Get rid of those people who are muddying things. Back on Day 1 lmp told me that too much clarity could only help the wolves to hide. I couldn't disagree with this more. I think that smokescreens and side arguments are perfect wolf hiding places. You're absolutely right that if we're going to take any risks (i.e. lynch someone we're not sure is a wolf), it's got to be today. I think the only defensible reason for doing something like this is to eliminate someone who's not contributing, who's generating confusion, or who seems to be obscuring things deliberately. Someone who's making it more difficult to find the wolves. The test wouldn't be "wolvish/non-wolvish;" it would be "useful/non-useful." I'm not sure I like this idea (is it yours or mine at this point?) enough to run with it all Day, still less if I like it enough to try to organize a lynching around it, but I'd like to put it out there:

Is there anyone whose absence would make our job easier, regardless of whether or not they turn out to be innocent?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Farael

It is still early and we are many innocents. Now is the time to take on risks, because the more we wait, the more difficult and costly it will be should we make a mistake. Now, I assume we all agree that LMP's behaviour has been far from easy to gauge. He will continue to be a distraction as days go on. I will leave it to others who have been paying closer attention to LMP to dig up information against him, if they feel like it, as I don't have time to do it myself right now. But given that my suspicions of Aiwendil are based mostly on his 'relationship' with LMP, today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

LMP, you are smart... I'll concede that. What ever happens, you have earned my respect. Still, I think your death will benefit us all more than your life. I apologise if you are an Ordo and I might be in trouble if you happen to be the Hunter, but I still think you have got to go.

tar-ancalime,
You started from my idea and moved a little in your own direction. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I don't think we should make it a policy to go after the useless folk, specially because as I argued before, wolves would just have to appear useful and they'd save their foul skins. Yet this time I think that LMP's death would be more useful than his life. If anything, he is mudding up the water, while it's almost heart-breaking to see him post the way he has, and almost giving up his own life for the sake of the village... I don't buy it. He might be a villager resigned to his fate(Eru knows it has happened to.... my soul in other incarnations) but his behaviour is very troublesome. From what I hear, he has the potential to be a very good contributor to the village and so far, he has only created controversy. I'm sorry LMP, but your death will clear the waters some

And Tar-ancalime, I can't get Aiwendil lynched today, I haven't gained enough support... that's why I'm trying other tactics. Sort of like politics if you think about it. I can't get away with what I want so I'll compromise, support other ideologies if in turn it will help me gain support for mine. And if we find LMP to be one of those fiends, who will look at me in the eye and say Aiwendil is not?

[The Saucepan Man]

I thought that dancing spawn had made some fine points about Eomer, and I was right. I addressed Eomer's votes above. Here's what else struck me on looking through his contributions.

Originally Posted by Eomer@#42

I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations.

I'm not sure that I like the suggestion that Wolves will act in a particular way, as it risks narrowing the scope of our search for them too much. I think it was Anguirel who said that the Wolves will play to their strengths and act accordingly, and I rather agree with our poor deceased banker. Having said, that, Eomer did not offer any big ideas, convoluted strategies or hardline accusations himself on Day 1, so (as dancing spawn pointed out) he fits his own pattern. A bluff?

Originally Posted by Eomer@#55

I suppose that at least one and probably more are going to be extremely 'friendly', if you understand me

The same point applies, I think.

Originally Posted by Eomer@#72

Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them?

I don't think I ever responded to this. Well, since you ask, it's possible, given that they have both voted for you on alternate days but I don't see anything stronger than that. I'm still viewing tar as an unlikely Wolf because of Holby's Day 1 vote and dancing spawn has done nothing to arouse my suspicion.

But why did you address that question specifically to me? Spawn noted that it seemed odd, and I am inclined to agree.

Originally Posted by Eomer@#72

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

Eomer does not seem too keen on making accusations. Merely raising suspicions, without really pressing them home. He does the same thing with Formendacil in #78: "It could be nothing, but ...", and again on Day 2, when he calls Form "tricksy" then appears to back off and then reconsiders (#171).

To be fair, he does accuse Farael (#178). And, while I agree with what he says, Farael was a fairly safe target, having largely been deemed innocent for his attack on Aiwendil.

When spawn makes her case (#190), Eomer responds rather defensively (#193), pointing out the ways in which he claims to have helped the village. In fact, he has offered very little in the way of substance so far. He also tries to defuse her argument by drawing a difference between "suspicion" and "accusation", and later claims that he has suspected people (#200). Actually, Eomer, I would say that you have raised suspicions without really driving them home.

All in all, Eomer is certainly beginning to look suspicious in my mind. And now tar-ancalime is seeing collusion between spawn and Eomer. Hmm, I'll have to think about that. But tomorrow. Right now, I'm whacked.

PS I agree, Farael, that lynching lmp could be quite revealing. Quite possibly about Aiwendil, but also about mormegil, Boro (who has backed off from him today - I'm not discounting that possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote), and now quite possibly you too. I have already gone back over his posts myself and he looks pretty suspicious to me, but I don't have any time now to do a full analysis. I might have a chance tomorrow, but I can't promise anything. Or perhaps, given that I might otherwise be accused of trying to "influence" the village ( ), people should look back themselves and make up their own minds.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by lmp

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

Hmm, another thing to consider. Could be a bluff ...?

[Boromir88]

Aiwendil, I think we always have to consider why someone like Sauce is still alive. The way I've always seen things (and debate with me if you like) why would the wolves kill someone who can be a big influence over the village if that person hasn't caught on to a wolf? Understand what I'm saying?

There's no reason for the wolves to kill someone like Sauce if he hasn't lynched a wolf yet. Once a wolf goes down then I would expect Sauce (or someone like him) to be a prime wolf kill at night. But, there's no reason for the wolves to kill an influential player, that knows innocents will be willing to trust his judgement if he/she hasn't found a wolf.

Of course someone like Sauce who can be so influential (whether he intends to be or not) makes a scary wolf player.

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

If you're not opposed would you be in favor of sacrificing yourself for the benefit of the village? If it comes down to it.

One thing I will make clear though, before I depart again...Let's not turn this day into a lmp bandwagon voting (I'm speaking to you innocents out there). It tells us nothing if we have lmp accumulating a wide majority of the votes. By jumping onto the lmp train will only help the wolves and gives us no insight into today's voting.

[Garin]

Sauce said: Actually, I rather think that I am ever destined to be an ordinary villager

I agree. What I was trying to say say is that at one point you have to be wolf instead of the perrenial ordo. Statistically it must happen sometime soon.

I'm inclined to always think you are an ordinary villager, but that could be a dangerous assumption.

[Garin]

Aiwendil: Garin looks to me like a wolf trying to play it safe by going after a single victim.

It looks like Garin is just being consistent. I don't take my votes lightly and at least I haven't killed an innocent, unlike others.
If Boro ends up being innocent you are allowed to condemn me.
Our dearly departed Anguirel suspected Boro on both days and only voted for Lhuna because Boro hadn't a chance of being lynched that day.
You reasoning is very specious.
If I was a wolf I wouldn't vote so early against someone who seems to have turned his gaze onto someone else and thusly raise his ire.

Edit: I'm starting to regret I already voted, by the way. I just need to help someone move to a new apartment real-time tomorrow so I am not sure If I could get back at a later date. This might be the last you hear from me although I hope to put up a substantial post before then ... no promises. Moving is a very unpredictable thing. I know this is a strange edit but I might need to triple post if I can find the strength to stay up a little longer.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

I have exposed my doubts on the Aiwendil-LMP situation. Aiwendil is quick to raise some suspicions and even quicker to exonerate him... which has me thinking is likely a well thought-out wolfish plan.

"Exonerate"? You continue to (wilfully?) misconstrue me. Yesterday, my top suspects were Garin and Formendacil. As I mentioned several times, I also suspected LMP and, to some extent, Tar; I simply didn't think them as likely to be wolves as the former two. At that point, the only thing that looked particularly suspicious about LMP to me was his vote for Boromir.

Matters are a bit different toDAY. For again on DAY 2 LMP had a sudden change of heart near the end of the DAY - and one that brought him more into line with public opinion. Perhaps he's simply being suggestible. But LMP is clever, and I doubt that he would be so easily swayed.

So toDAY, LMP is certainly one of my top suspects. I think that lynching him toDAY might not be a bad idea at all. (I suppose now you'll accuse me of flip-flopping . . .)

Call me stubborn if you must, but Garin also still looks distinctly wolvish to me. He's voted for Boromir twice now, but with little apparent reason. The only clear charge against Boromir that I can gather from Garin's posts is that Boromir defended himself when Anguirel attacked him. Garin looks to me like a wolf trying to play it safe by going after a single victim.

. . . which brings me to Farael. SPM has made a good point about him - namely, that what he's doing looks like an excellent tactic for a wolf. Pick a single target and go after him relentlessly. It would have several advantages for a wolf: 1. it's unexpected; 2. it will probably be deemed "bold" and perhaps "over-bold" (but is it really?); 3. the wolf thereby avoids getting engaged in any discussion outside his specific, chosen topic. Of course, Farael has backed off a bit toDAY and is now discussing other villagers. A "flip flop"? I would certainly be well within my rights to make the same charge against him that he made against me. But of course I don't think it's unreasonable to change your mind from time to time. I'll be interested to watch Farael now, though, and see how he fares when he's not just attacking me.

My other suspect from yesterday was Formendacil. He still looks suspicious to me. He's been fairly quiet, which may mean he's trying to "fly under the radar". I do understand and sympathize, though, that he's not feeling well. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment.

The Saucepan Man wrote:

Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me. But I could ask the same question about a number of other villagers - including you, Master Cook.

All right, point taken. Nonetheless, I have come under suspicion. Unless I'm much mistaken, you have not. The closest I can find is LMP's statement early on that he found something "off" with you. Much as LMP is looking lupine to me right now, I can't help but think that maybe he was right. Actually, there are two fairly curious things to note here. One is the fact that the wolves haven't killed you yet, despite the fact that you've been under no suspicion - which, I'll grant, may not be all that strange. It is only DAY 3, after all. What worries me more is the fact itself that you haven't come under any real suspicion. Are we all simply so accustomed to SPM being innocent that we cannot conceive the possibility that he's a wolf? I'm not saying that SPM is a chief suspect at the moment, but I do think that he's been granted "innocent" status - if only de facto - far too easily.

As for everyone else - I'm afraid I've spent far too much time examining the few that I suspect and far too little looking at everyone else. In particular, I want to go back and take a closer look at Spawn, Eomer, and Kath - about whom others have made some interesting points.

To summarize, then, I'd say that my top suspects at this point are:
LMP
Garin

And my not-so-top suspects (but suspects nonetheless) are:
Formendacil
Farael
SPM

Edit: crossed with Boromir