Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by lmp

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

Hmm, another thing to consider. Could be a bluff ...?

[Boromir88]

Aiwendil, I think we always have to consider why someone like Sauce is still alive. The way I've always seen things (and debate with me if you like) why would the wolves kill someone who can be a big influence over the village if that person hasn't caught on to a wolf? Understand what I'm saying?

There's no reason for the wolves to kill someone like Sauce if he hasn't lynched a wolf yet. Once a wolf goes down then I would expect Sauce (or someone like him) to be a prime wolf kill at night. But, there's no reason for the wolves to kill an influential player, that knows innocents will be willing to trust his judgement if he/she hasn't found a wolf.

Of course someone like Sauce who can be so influential (whether he intends to be or not) makes a scary wolf player.

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

If you're not opposed would you be in favor of sacrificing yourself for the benefit of the village? If it comes down to it.

One thing I will make clear though, before I depart again...Let's not turn this day into a lmp bandwagon voting (I'm speaking to you innocents out there). It tells us nothing if we have lmp accumulating a wide majority of the votes. By jumping onto the lmp train will only help the wolves and gives us no insight into today's voting.

[Garin]

Sauce said: Actually, I rather think that I am ever destined to be an ordinary villager

I agree. What I was trying to say say is that at one point you have to be wolf instead of the perrenial ordo. Statistically it must happen sometime soon.

I'm inclined to always think you are an ordinary villager, but that could be a dangerous assumption.

[Garin]

Aiwendil: Garin looks to me like a wolf trying to play it safe by going after a single victim.

It looks like Garin is just being consistent. I don't take my votes lightly and at least I haven't killed an innocent, unlike others.
If Boro ends up being innocent you are allowed to condemn me.
Our dearly departed Anguirel suspected Boro on both days and only voted for Lhuna because Boro hadn't a chance of being lynched that day.
You reasoning is very specious.
If I was a wolf I wouldn't vote so early against someone who seems to have turned his gaze onto someone else and thusly raise his ire.

Edit: I'm starting to regret I already voted, by the way. I just need to help someone move to a new apartment real-time tomorrow so I am not sure If I could get back at a later date. This might be the last you hear from me although I hope to put up a substantial post before then ... no promises. Moving is a very unpredictable thing. I know this is a strange edit but I might need to triple post if I can find the strength to stay up a little longer.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

I have exposed my doubts on the Aiwendil-LMP situation. Aiwendil is quick to raise some suspicions and even quicker to exonerate him... which has me thinking is likely a well thought-out wolfish plan.

"Exonerate"? You continue to (wilfully?) misconstrue me. Yesterday, my top suspects were Garin and Formendacil. As I mentioned several times, I also suspected LMP and, to some extent, Tar; I simply didn't think them as likely to be wolves as the former two. At that point, the only thing that looked particularly suspicious about LMP to me was his vote for Boromir.

Matters are a bit different toDAY. For again on DAY 2 LMP had a sudden change of heart near the end of the DAY - and one that brought him more into line with public opinion. Perhaps he's simply being suggestible. But LMP is clever, and I doubt that he would be so easily swayed.

So toDAY, LMP is certainly one of my top suspects. I think that lynching him toDAY might not be a bad idea at all. (I suppose now you'll accuse me of flip-flopping . . .)

Call me stubborn if you must, but Garin also still looks distinctly wolvish to me. He's voted for Boromir twice now, but with little apparent reason. The only clear charge against Boromir that I can gather from Garin's posts is that Boromir defended himself when Anguirel attacked him. Garin looks to me like a wolf trying to play it safe by going after a single victim.

. . . which brings me to Farael. SPM has made a good point about him - namely, that what he's doing looks like an excellent tactic for a wolf. Pick a single target and go after him relentlessly. It would have several advantages for a wolf: 1. it's unexpected; 2. it will probably be deemed "bold" and perhaps "over-bold" (but is it really?); 3. the wolf thereby avoids getting engaged in any discussion outside his specific, chosen topic. Of course, Farael has backed off a bit toDAY and is now discussing other villagers. A "flip flop"? I would certainly be well within my rights to make the same charge against him that he made against me. But of course I don't think it's unreasonable to change your mind from time to time. I'll be interested to watch Farael now, though, and see how he fares when he's not just attacking me.

My other suspect from yesterday was Formendacil. He still looks suspicious to me. He's been fairly quiet, which may mean he's trying to "fly under the radar". I do understand and sympathize, though, that he's not feeling well. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment.

The Saucepan Man wrote:

Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me. But I could ask the same question about a number of other villagers - including you, Master Cook.

All right, point taken. Nonetheless, I have come under suspicion. Unless I'm much mistaken, you have not. The closest I can find is LMP's statement early on that he found something "off" with you. Much as LMP is looking lupine to me right now, I can't help but think that maybe he was right. Actually, there are two fairly curious things to note here. One is the fact that the wolves haven't killed you yet, despite the fact that you've been under no suspicion - which, I'll grant, may not be all that strange. It is only DAY 3, after all. What worries me more is the fact itself that you haven't come under any real suspicion. Are we all simply so accustomed to SPM being innocent that we cannot conceive the possibility that he's a wolf? I'm not saying that SPM is a chief suspect at the moment, but I do think that he's been granted "innocent" status - if only de facto - far too easily.

As for everyone else - I'm afraid I've spent far too much time examining the few that I suspect and far too little looking at everyone else. In particular, I want to go back and take a closer look at Spawn, Eomer, and Kath - about whom others have made some interesting points.

To summarize, then, I'd say that my top suspects at this point are:
LMP
Garin

And my not-so-top suspects (but suspects nonetheless) are:
Formendacil
Farael
SPM

Edit: crossed with Boromir