Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Well, it's looking rather dismal for those Kuruharans who are waiting for back-to-back Village Victories.

Well, I wouldn't be too downhearted. The Wolf:villager ratio will favour us for a few days yet and, cold though it may seem, our chances of finding the remaining Wolves increase as the village population dwindles.

Yesterday's voting record is as follows:

1. Nilpaurion for Eomer (Eomer-1)
2. Tar-ancalime for Boromir88 (Eomer-1; Boromir88-1)
3. Mormegil for Eomer (Eomer-2; Boromir88-1)
4. The Saucepan Man for Eomer of the Rohirrim (Eomer-3; Boromir88-1)
5. Kath for tar-ancalime (Eomer-3; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-1)
6. Eomer of the Rohirrim for tar-ancalime (Eomer-3; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-2)
7. Aiwendil for tar-ancalime (Eomer-3; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-3)
8. Boromir88 for Eomer (Eomer-4; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-3)
9. Formendacil for Eomer (Eomer-5; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-3)
10. Celuien for tar-ancalime (Eomer-5; Boromir88-1, tar-ancalime-4)

Did not vote: Farael, Glirdan

How useful yesterday's votes are depends, to a degree, on whether tar-ancalime is a Wolf since, if she is, then, depending when (and if) he or she voted, the remaining Wolf may have had little to choose between the two main candidates for lynching. I still believe it quite possible that tar is a Wolf, but I am by no means certain of it. Her vote does look bad but it may well be that the Wolves killed Boro (and so struck lucky again) to make it look that way. And Eomer's plea to Celuien to vote for tar, following his false declaration as the Ranger, speaks in favour of both tar and Celuien.

Nilp and mormegil look pretty good to me for their early votes for Eomer. I am not discounting the possibility of a Wolf-on-Wolf vote there, but it looks unnecessarily risky to me.

I think that we can firmly conclude now that Formendacil is indeed an innocent Fool. I agree that a solid contribution from him today would be most welcome.

It is difficult to draw much of a conclusion from the votes of Aiwendil and Kath without knowing whether tar is a Wolf. Aiwendil did say earlier in the day that he was more inclined to view Eomer as innocent than tar and I wonder whether a Wolf would have been so bold as to speak up for a fellow Wolf in such a precarious position as Eomer was. Kath's quietness continues to concern me. I'm sorry Kath, but you are giving us so little to go on, it is natural to suspect you. And, when I looked back over the past few days, I noticed that you have been around some of the time without actually saying very much.

Farael is still making me very nervous. He started off yesterday rather ambiguous about Eomer, having first noted that spawn's death made him look almost too suspicious. Later, he made a great play of saying that Eomer was his true suspect, but only after Eomer had already received three votes. He then failed to turn up to vote. I know that he has explained on the village notice board why he didn't vote but I still don't like it, as we have no way of knowing for sure which way he would have voted, had he been here.

As for Glirdan, well I know that he has good reason for his absence, But, again, it means that there is very little by which we can judge him.

[The Saucepan Man]

For what it's worth, morm, there is a similar pattern in Kath's votes on Days 3 and 4. On Day 3, she put Garin one vote ahead of Eomer. And on Day 4, she was the first to vote for tar, when Eomer was on three votes and with (potentially) seven votes to come.

And you left Farael out of your list of non-Eomer voters.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

For what it's worth, morm, there is a similar pattern in Kath's votes on Days 3 and 4. On Day 3, she put Garin one vote ahead of Eomer. And on Day 4, she was the first to vote for tar, when Eomer was on three votes and with (potentially) seven votes to come.

And you left Farael out of your list of non-Eomer voters.

Oops, I was in haste and must have forgotten.

I would like to try a detailed analysis of all non-Eomer voters. I truly believe that all our wolves will be in that group. Also I believe that one by one they (the wolves) will kill the Eomer voters.

Where is everybody? It's too quiet for me.

[Aiwendil]

The Saucepan Man wrote:

And Eomer's plea to Celuien to vote for tar, following his false declaration as the Ranger, speaks in favour of both tar and Celuien.

You know, this is a good point. It doesn't seem particularly likely that Eomer would try to save himself by getting another wolf lynched. If Tar were a wolf, why would Eomer even bother with the whole Ranger impersonation?

Of course, it could be an elaborate ruse designed to get us to think exactly that. But somehow it doesn't strike me that way. If Eomer intended to try to divert out suspicion from Tar, why would he wait until the last minute like that?

This makes me think that I may have been wrong about Tar. Looks like I have some re-considering to do.

Mormegil wrote:

I would like to try a detailed analysis of all non-Eomer voters. I truly believe that all our wolves will be in that group.

This makes sense to me, and I agree that detailed analyses are probably in order.

And now for the rather wild, far-fetched theory that's occurred to me: Suppose the wolves decided to sacrifice Eomer. Suppose they killed Spawn for this reason. Suppose one or more wolves then comes out with an all-out attack on Eomer and even votes for him.

Likely? Maybe not. Beyond the realm of possibility? Certainly not. But it is enough to prevent me from dropping all suspicion of the Eomer voters. Formendacil is a proven innocent. But in my opinion, it's still possible that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, or Mormegil could be a wolf.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

And now for the rather wild, far-fetched theory that's occurred to me: Suppose the wolves decided to sacrifice Eomer. Suppose they killed Spawn for this reason. Suppose one or more wolves then comes out with an all-out attack on Eomer and even votes for him.

Likely? Maybe not. Beyond the realm of possibility? Certainly not. But it is enough to prevent me from dropping all suspicion of the Eomer voters. Formendacil is a proven innocent. But in my opinion, it's still possible that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, or Mormegil could be a wolf.

I agree and that is why I haven't written off SpM and Nilp. However for the time being I will keep them off because I know that I am innocent and think it's not likely that they pulled this ruse. I believe that Eomer believed that he could pull it off and almost he did. I must toot my own horn here. I was the only one, I feel, that kept suspicion on him.

[Glirdan]

I'm just coming in to say hi and bye. I've been called off out of town again for a major competition and will not be back for three days. I'm sorry I could not be of more help to you all. I will try and be post up to my usual standards this weekend. Forgive me!!!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Where is everybody? It's too quiet for me.

I am still here as my dignitarial duties (ie work) may keep me from being here tomorrow as much as I would like.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Of course, it could be an elaborate ruse designed to get us to think exactly that. But somehow it doesn't strike me that way. If Eomer intended to try to divert out suspicion from Tar, why would he wait until the last minute like that?

I have been doing some further thinking about that interplay between Celuien and Eomer at the sharp end of yesterday. It may well have been genuine on both their parts (although genuine is perhaps not the right word for Eomer's part in it). But an Eomer-Wolf is a tricksy beast, so it's quite possible that there is more to it than that. One possibility is that they were both play acting, in an effort to establish the seeming innocence of a Wolfish Celuien. However, that would have required a degree of co-ordination on both their parts which I think would probably have been difficult for them to achieve at that time. The other possibility is the one that you have suggested, Aiwendil. That Eomer, concluding that his number was most likely up, acted the way that he did to disassociate himself from a Wolfish tar-ancalime, with the aim of giving her a better chance of surviving today. Possibly, he waited until the last minute because he thought that the votes could save him yet, without need to resort to such a desperate ploy. Or perhaps I am just reading too much into it.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But in my opinion, it's still possible that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, or Mormegil could be a wolf.

I am not a Wolf. Of course, I don't expect you to take my word for it, so you will have to make up your own mind. It's possible that either Nilp or morm (or possibly both) are, and that they decided to sacrifice Eomer. But I think it unlikely that they would have voted for him so early, without seeing if there was a chance he might be spared the noose. And morm makes a fair point. It was him who really kept the spotlight on Eomer. If morm is a Wolf, it would have to have been a wholly premeditated sacrifice. Still, I wouldn't put it past him.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I would like to try a detailed analysis of all non-Eomer voters.

Well, for my part, I thought it worth taking a closer look at Farael's contributions yesterday.

He was the first to arrive, following the discovery of spawn's body, and immediately raised the question of whether it might be a set up.

Originally Posted by Farael @ #331

Hmm, this death makes Eomer look pretty bad... almost too bad to be real, don'tcha think?

I am sure that the point will have occured to most if not all of us, but that seems a pretty strong way of putting it.

After suspicions of Eomer are voiced by most of those present and morm questions whether he is prepared to write off Eomer as innocent, he replies:

Originally Posted by Farael @ #342

No, I think it's either a very bold move or a very smart one.

Which looks to me rather like he is trying to hedge his bets. He then attempts to tie Eomer in with his long-standing case against Aiwendil, although I don't really follow what he is trying to say here. Immediately after that (#343), he defends his plan to lynch littlemanpoet by essentially saying that, had lmp been a Wolf, it would strongly have implicated Aiwendil but that, lmp's innocence notwithstanding, he still suspected Aiwendil. He says much the same thing in #347. I really don't get the reasoning behind this at all.

In #352, he claims that he has been voicing suspicions of Eomer, although it looks to me more like he was trying to play it safe and see how the village's opinion of Eomer developed. Not surprisingly, he seizes upon Aiwendil's thoughts on Eomer as a further basis upon which to accuse Aiwendil. Aiwendil had wondered whether a Wolfish Eomer bold enough to have killed spawn would have played it so safe in terms of accusation. Although we now know that Eomer is a Wolf, that seemed to me a reasonable point at the time. Farael makes the point that it is in the nature of a Wolf to be appear one way yet act another. Again, a reasonable point, although I hardly think that Aiwendil's comments implicate him to quite the degree that Farael makes out. Still, Farael has been single-minded in his pursuit of Aiwendil since Day 1.

But what I find most interesting is his post #382. By this stage, Eomer was on three votes and Boro on one. He starts off by saying that he doesn't want to join the Eomer bandwaggon. Then he says (quite bizarrely, in my view) that he is not nearly so suspicious of Aiwendil as he has made out and goes on to explain further his reasoning behind the lmp/Aiwendil thing. I still don't understand it. But it is what he says next that I find most curious:

Originally Posted by Farael @ #382

Now, I still think Eomer is set between a rock and a hard place... I want to announce to 'the public' that I mean to vote for him. If I vote for anyone else (likely Aiwendil for concistency's sake) it's just because Eomer is already convicted and I want to get fewer names for the wolves to hide on. Of course you could think I am a wolf bailing out on what could be see as bandwaggoning... well, if you think so then lynch me and remember my words above after that.

Now that we have that cleared up, I'd say that right now my true suspect is Eomer (sorry buddy, but you really are in bad shape right now and while you could think that it's what the wolves want us to think, I fear that we might be over-analysing things).

So, now that Eomer is looking a prime candidate for lynching, Farael names him as his "true suspect". He signals that he is going to vote for Eomer, but says that he might vote for someone else if Eomer is already condemned "to get fewer names for the Wolves to hide on". I don't get that at all. If Eomer was already condemned, then a vote for another villager would surely only help the other Wolves to hide. It looks to me like Farael was trying to make himself look good in case Eomer was lynched and found to be a Wolf, yet at the same time preemptively giving himself some cover in case he decided that his vote might look better if it was placed elsewhere. If Eomer was your "true suspect", Farael, why didn't you vote for him here? Instead, you failed to turn up to vote at all. I accept your reason for that, but it doesn't explain why you did not vote earlier. Did you in fact think that your vote might be needed to save Eomer?

As far as I can see, the only thing that speaks in Farael's favour is that Eomer attacked him on a number of occasions, most notably on Day 2 (#178), but also subsequently I think. However, Farael has so far never been under serious suspicion and has received only one vote to date (a "random" vote from Nilp on Day 1). So it is quite possible that these were "safe" accusations by Eomer, designed to put some distance between them in the event that one of them was lynched.

Would a Wolfish Farael have acted the way he has, with his single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil, his plan to lynch lmp, his (to put it kindly) rather difficult to follow reasoning, and his (to my mind) rather bizarre behavior yesterday? Quite possibly in my view. It has succeeded in sparing him from much suspicion so far, precisely because it looks too bold for a Wolf. And, in some cases, it has only served to confuse and, in the case of the "lynch lmp" plan, help divert the village down the wrong path.

In any event, having taken a much closer look at him, his behaviour looks distinctly Wolfish to me.

I hope to get a chance to look more closely at some of the other non-Eomer voters too, although they may have to wait until tomorrow, assuming that my duties allow me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Farael

I reckon that barring a majour breackthrough I will be lynched sooner or later and I want to avoid you guys wasting time looking at me. This will most likely all make me look even more suspicious, but maybe after I'm dead it will help.

I wonder why you want to avoid us "wasting our time" looking at you? And yes, you are looking even more suspicious. To me at least.

Originally Posted by Farael

Now we will all agree that he has been very careful and 'rational'... now, I ask if anyone's great grand father has played with Aiwendil's great grand father... does he always play this way or is he playing the way he thinks we'd expect an innocent to act?

In my limited ancestral ( ) experience, yes it is his usual style. That said, I would expect a Wolfish Aiwendil to play in his "usual" style. I haven't discounted Aiwendil as a possible Wolf, but I don't think it likely that the two of you are Wolves (all credit to you if you are ) and, right now, you are looking a lot more suspicious to me than him.

Originally Posted by Farael

Glirdan has been having RL issues and I believe him. If he had an important role, I would like to venture that he'd be here more often.

I am concerned that may be a dangerous assumption to make. Still, if he is a Wolf, and ends up beng the last one alive, it is quite possible that his absence from much of our debate will lead him to slip up.

[Aiwendil]

Mormegil wrote:

I must toot my own horn here. I was the only one, I feel, that kept suspicion on him.

Yes, and for what it's worth, I give you credit for that. Nonetheless, I don't know that you're innocent. And a bold, completely pre-meditated sacrifice is just the sort of thing I could see you and Eomer pulling off together.

If I had to guess, I'd say Morm's innocent. But I can't put the thought of some elaborate ruse out of my mind. Maybe it's just that the mere thought of a wolvish trio that included both Eomer and Morm sends shivers down my spine . . .

Farael wrote:

Now we will all agree that he has been very careful and 'rational'... now, I ask if anyone's great grand father has played with Aiwendil's great grand father... does he always play this way or is he playing the way he thinks we'd expect an innocent to act?

I think that Mormegil and Saucepan may have heard a few stories about an ancestor of mine, and I'm sure they'll both confirm that he was careful and rational.

Yet (and this is where I cringe) he closes his post saying that maybe the wolves area Eomer, Tar and me.

Now, maybe I just got to him and he wants me dead but.... he mentioned nothing about me in the whole post, he talked about Morm instead!! And yet, he does not mention him for his 'triumvirate of wolves"

Since the logic behind my argument there was more complex than a simple "X is a wolf!" I don't expect you to be interested in it. But, for what it's worth, what I said was that if Eomer turned out to be innocent, I would suspect Morm. But I didn't think that Eomer was innocent, so I didn't think that Morm was a wolf.

SPM wrote:

That Eomer, concluding that his number was most likely up, acted the way that he did to disassociate himself from a Wolfish tar-ancalime, with the aim of giving her a better chance of surviving today. Possibly, he waited until the last minute because he thought that the votes could save him yet, without need to resort to such a desperate ploy.

But if Tar were also a wolf, then it seems to me that Eomer wouldn't be particularly interested in saving himself by having her lynched. In other words, if they're both wolves, then they would have known that one of them was doomed no matter what.

Then he says (quite bizarrely, in my view) that he is not nearly so suspicious of Aiwendil as he has made out

I found this strange as well. Wasn't it Farael himself who said that wolves would "appear one way and act another"?

I hope to get a chance at some point to analyse the posts of some of those who did not vote for Eomer, but I have some business away from the village to attend to. Nonetheless, I think I will get some time for it about five or six hours before NIGHTfall.

Edit: crossed with SPM's second post

[Farael]

As I said in the notice board, it was an accident I did not vote. (I'm sorry friends and fiends but I meant to come back close to the deadline yet I got confused with my last WW game and missed it)

In one of my posts I said I meant to vote for Eomer but that I would not do so if a bandwagon was forming, just to avoid giving more 'room' for the wolves to hide in. I reckon that barring a majour breackthrough I will be lynched sooner or later and I want to avoid you guys wasting time looking at me. This will most likely all make me look even more suspicious, but maybe after I'm dead it will help. Or maybe I'll survive.

Now, while Aiwendil (again) sounds reasonable when he says others looked more suspicious than Eomer and thus he voted for others, what about his weak defense of the wolf?

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But the thing that really has me leaning toward Eomer's innocence is actually the same thing that caused Spawn to suspect him. We all know that Eomer would be a bold wolf - so bold that there's a real possibility that he would, indeed, have killed Spawn. But if he's such a bold wolf, why would he more or less "play it safe" in terms of accusations? It strikes me that if Eomer were a wolf, he wouldn't be afraid to take a risk and accuse someone. His "playing it safe" - i.e., perhaps, playing it rationally - looks more like something he'd do if innocent.

Now, I might just be reading too much into his post again, but this time I'm being totally serious with my accusation. Aiwendil thinks that an innocent will look very rational and careful in his accusations, as Eomer was acting. Even if the wolves did not agree to do so, Aiwendil thinks that it's the way an innocent will act. Now we will all agree that he has been very careful and 'rational'... now, I ask if anyone's great grand father has played with Aiwendil's great grand father... does he always play this way or is he playing the way he thinks we'd expect an innocent to act?

Post 372: thinks that if Eomer is a wolf, so will Tar... therefore voting for either of them will not make a difference (so far so good, that's somewhat consistent with what he said before). He offers that if either of them are wolves then we should lynch the other today. He then says that Morm might be the other wolf. And thus, he says that if we don't lynch Eomer and Tar in quick succession, we should go after Morm. Yet (and this is where I cringe) he closes his post saying that maybe the wolves area Eomer, Tar and me.

Now, maybe I just got to him and he wants me dead but.... he mentioned nothing about me in the whole post, he talked about Morm instead!! And yet, he does not mention him for his 'triumvirate of wolves"

Now, let's see...

Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime

Let's take out myself because I know I'm innocent along the other two that Eomer accused yesterDay as he knew he was going to die and was probably going against the easier targets hoping for a lucky break. I've been under a bit of heat lately and both Celuien and Nilp have been pretty absent, which is never a good thing for an innocent villager to be. We also take out Formen, for obvious reasons. I'm willing to let Morm and SPM off the hook for now, given that they gave Eomer his second and third votes early on the day, which put him up front as the most likely lynchee. Glirdan has been having RL issues and I believe him. If he had an important role, I would like to venture that he'd be here more often. Eomer voted for Tar-Ancalime and it seemed he might have gotten away with it. Iit does not sound like a wolf trying to save a friend by making him look innocent, but rather a wolf trying to save his furry skin, so I will get Tar-a out of the equation. FInally, Kath and Aiwendil voted for Tar before Celuien got tricked into doing so, therefore we get

Aiwendil
Kath

Now, they are not the 'ideal' suspects.... Aiwendil has managed to look mostly innocent, perhaps even because of my attacks and Kath has been a non-factor... while I'd be willing to sympathise with Kath, I remember a story my Grandma told me about a wolf called Malkatoj who used that tactic to put a blindfold over the village's eyes. And it worked.

I say we rid ourselves of Aiwendil first, at least then I won't be a distraction anymore, both because I will no longer have him to go after, and also because I will most likely be lynched the day after if he turns out to be innocent =P

But seriously, those two either explain why they were playing into Eomer's hand or I say we use the rocks on them!

Edit: Cross-posted with many people.