Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

And now for the rather wild, far-fetched theory that's occurred to me: Suppose the wolves decided to sacrifice Eomer. Suppose they killed Spawn for this reason. Suppose one or more wolves then comes out with an all-out attack on Eomer and even votes for him.

Likely? Maybe not. Beyond the realm of possibility? Certainly not. But it is enough to prevent me from dropping all suspicion of the Eomer voters. Formendacil is a proven innocent. But in my opinion, it's still possible that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, or Mormegil could be a wolf.

I agree and that is why I haven't written off SpM and Nilp. However for the time being I will keep them off because I know that I am innocent and think it's not likely that they pulled this ruse. I believe that Eomer believed that he could pull it off and almost he did. I must toot my own horn here. I was the only one, I feel, that kept suspicion on him.

[Glirdan]

I'm just coming in to say hi and bye. I've been called off out of town again for a major competition and will not be back for three days. I'm sorry I could not be of more help to you all. I will try and be post up to my usual standards this weekend. Forgive me!!!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Where is everybody? It's too quiet for me.

I am still here as my dignitarial duties (ie work) may keep me from being here tomorrow as much as I would like.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Of course, it could be an elaborate ruse designed to get us to think exactly that. But somehow it doesn't strike me that way. If Eomer intended to try to divert out suspicion from Tar, why would he wait until the last minute like that?

I have been doing some further thinking about that interplay between Celuien and Eomer at the sharp end of yesterday. It may well have been genuine on both their parts (although genuine is perhaps not the right word for Eomer's part in it). But an Eomer-Wolf is a tricksy beast, so it's quite possible that there is more to it than that. One possibility is that they were both play acting, in an effort to establish the seeming innocence of a Wolfish Celuien. However, that would have required a degree of co-ordination on both their parts which I think would probably have been difficult for them to achieve at that time. The other possibility is the one that you have suggested, Aiwendil. That Eomer, concluding that his number was most likely up, acted the way that he did to disassociate himself from a Wolfish tar-ancalime, with the aim of giving her a better chance of surviving today. Possibly, he waited until the last minute because he thought that the votes could save him yet, without need to resort to such a desperate ploy. Or perhaps I am just reading too much into it.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But in my opinion, it's still possible that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, or Mormegil could be a wolf.

I am not a Wolf. Of course, I don't expect you to take my word for it, so you will have to make up your own mind. It's possible that either Nilp or morm (or possibly both) are, and that they decided to sacrifice Eomer. But I think it unlikely that they would have voted for him so early, without seeing if there was a chance he might be spared the noose. And morm makes a fair point. It was him who really kept the spotlight on Eomer. If morm is a Wolf, it would have to have been a wholly premeditated sacrifice. Still, I wouldn't put it past him.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I would like to try a detailed analysis of all non-Eomer voters.

Well, for my part, I thought it worth taking a closer look at Farael's contributions yesterday.

He was the first to arrive, following the discovery of spawn's body, and immediately raised the question of whether it might be a set up.

Originally Posted by Farael @ #331

Hmm, this death makes Eomer look pretty bad... almost too bad to be real, don'tcha think?

I am sure that the point will have occured to most if not all of us, but that seems a pretty strong way of putting it.

After suspicions of Eomer are voiced by most of those present and morm questions whether he is prepared to write off Eomer as innocent, he replies:

Originally Posted by Farael @ #342

No, I think it's either a very bold move or a very smart one.

Which looks to me rather like he is trying to hedge his bets. He then attempts to tie Eomer in with his long-standing case against Aiwendil, although I don't really follow what he is trying to say here. Immediately after that (#343), he defends his plan to lynch littlemanpoet by essentially saying that, had lmp been a Wolf, it would strongly have implicated Aiwendil but that, lmp's innocence notwithstanding, he still suspected Aiwendil. He says much the same thing in #347. I really don't get the reasoning behind this at all.

In #352, he claims that he has been voicing suspicions of Eomer, although it looks to me more like he was trying to play it safe and see how the village's opinion of Eomer developed. Not surprisingly, he seizes upon Aiwendil's thoughts on Eomer as a further basis upon which to accuse Aiwendil. Aiwendil had wondered whether a Wolfish Eomer bold enough to have killed spawn would have played it so safe in terms of accusation. Although we now know that Eomer is a Wolf, that seemed to me a reasonable point at the time. Farael makes the point that it is in the nature of a Wolf to be appear one way yet act another. Again, a reasonable point, although I hardly think that Aiwendil's comments implicate him to quite the degree that Farael makes out. Still, Farael has been single-minded in his pursuit of Aiwendil since Day 1.

But what I find most interesting is his post #382. By this stage, Eomer was on three votes and Boro on one. He starts off by saying that he doesn't want to join the Eomer bandwaggon. Then he says (quite bizarrely, in my view) that he is not nearly so suspicious of Aiwendil as he has made out and goes on to explain further his reasoning behind the lmp/Aiwendil thing. I still don't understand it. But it is what he says next that I find most curious:

Originally Posted by Farael @ #382

Now, I still think Eomer is set between a rock and a hard place... I want to announce to 'the public' that I mean to vote for him. If I vote for anyone else (likely Aiwendil for concistency's sake) it's just because Eomer is already convicted and I want to get fewer names for the wolves to hide on. Of course you could think I am a wolf bailing out on what could be see as bandwaggoning... well, if you think so then lynch me and remember my words above after that.

Now that we have that cleared up, I'd say that right now my true suspect is Eomer (sorry buddy, but you really are in bad shape right now and while you could think that it's what the wolves want us to think, I fear that we might be over-analysing things).

So, now that Eomer is looking a prime candidate for lynching, Farael names him as his "true suspect". He signals that he is going to vote for Eomer, but says that he might vote for someone else if Eomer is already condemned "to get fewer names for the Wolves to hide on". I don't get that at all. If Eomer was already condemned, then a vote for another villager would surely only help the other Wolves to hide. It looks to me like Farael was trying to make himself look good in case Eomer was lynched and found to be a Wolf, yet at the same time preemptively giving himself some cover in case he decided that his vote might look better if it was placed elsewhere. If Eomer was your "true suspect", Farael, why didn't you vote for him here? Instead, you failed to turn up to vote at all. I accept your reason for that, but it doesn't explain why you did not vote earlier. Did you in fact think that your vote might be needed to save Eomer?

As far as I can see, the only thing that speaks in Farael's favour is that Eomer attacked him on a number of occasions, most notably on Day 2 (#178), but also subsequently I think. However, Farael has so far never been under serious suspicion and has received only one vote to date (a "random" vote from Nilp on Day 1). So it is quite possible that these were "safe" accusations by Eomer, designed to put some distance between them in the event that one of them was lynched.

Would a Wolfish Farael have acted the way he has, with his single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil, his plan to lynch lmp, his (to put it kindly) rather difficult to follow reasoning, and his (to my mind) rather bizarre behavior yesterday? Quite possibly in my view. It has succeeded in sparing him from much suspicion so far, precisely because it looks too bold for a Wolf. And, in some cases, it has only served to confuse and, in the case of the "lynch lmp" plan, help divert the village down the wrong path.

In any event, having taken a much closer look at him, his behaviour looks distinctly Wolfish to me.

I hope to get a chance to look more closely at some of the other non-Eomer voters too, although they may have to wait until tomorrow, assuming that my duties allow me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Farael

I reckon that barring a majour breackthrough I will be lynched sooner or later and I want to avoid you guys wasting time looking at me. This will most likely all make me look even more suspicious, but maybe after I'm dead it will help.

I wonder why you want to avoid us "wasting our time" looking at you? And yes, you are looking even more suspicious. To me at least.

Originally Posted by Farael

Now we will all agree that he has been very careful and 'rational'... now, I ask if anyone's great grand father has played with Aiwendil's great grand father... does he always play this way or is he playing the way he thinks we'd expect an innocent to act?

In my limited ancestral ( ) experience, yes it is his usual style. That said, I would expect a Wolfish Aiwendil to play in his "usual" style. I haven't discounted Aiwendil as a possible Wolf, but I don't think it likely that the two of you are Wolves (all credit to you if you are ) and, right now, you are looking a lot more suspicious to me than him.

Originally Posted by Farael

Glirdan has been having RL issues and I believe him. If he had an important role, I would like to venture that he'd be here more often.

I am concerned that may be a dangerous assumption to make. Still, if he is a Wolf, and ends up beng the last one alive, it is quite possible that his absence from much of our debate will lead him to slip up.

[Aiwendil]

Mormegil wrote:

I must toot my own horn here. I was the only one, I feel, that kept suspicion on him.

Yes, and for what it's worth, I give you credit for that. Nonetheless, I don't know that you're innocent. And a bold, completely pre-meditated sacrifice is just the sort of thing I could see you and Eomer pulling off together.

If I had to guess, I'd say Morm's innocent. But I can't put the thought of some elaborate ruse out of my mind. Maybe it's just that the mere thought of a wolvish trio that included both Eomer and Morm sends shivers down my spine . . .

Farael wrote:

Now we will all agree that he has been very careful and 'rational'... now, I ask if anyone's great grand father has played with Aiwendil's great grand father... does he always play this way or is he playing the way he thinks we'd expect an innocent to act?

I think that Mormegil and Saucepan may have heard a few stories about an ancestor of mine, and I'm sure they'll both confirm that he was careful and rational.

Yet (and this is where I cringe) he closes his post saying that maybe the wolves area Eomer, Tar and me.

Now, maybe I just got to him and he wants me dead but.... he mentioned nothing about me in the whole post, he talked about Morm instead!! And yet, he does not mention him for his 'triumvirate of wolves"

Since the logic behind my argument there was more complex than a simple "X is a wolf!" I don't expect you to be interested in it. But, for what it's worth, what I said was that if Eomer turned out to be innocent, I would suspect Morm. But I didn't think that Eomer was innocent, so I didn't think that Morm was a wolf.

SPM wrote:

That Eomer, concluding that his number was most likely up, acted the way that he did to disassociate himself from a Wolfish tar-ancalime, with the aim of giving her a better chance of surviving today. Possibly, he waited until the last minute because he thought that the votes could save him yet, without need to resort to such a desperate ploy.

But if Tar were also a wolf, then it seems to me that Eomer wouldn't be particularly interested in saving himself by having her lynched. In other words, if they're both wolves, then they would have known that one of them was doomed no matter what.

Then he says (quite bizarrely, in my view) that he is not nearly so suspicious of Aiwendil as he has made out

I found this strange as well. Wasn't it Farael himself who said that wolves would "appear one way and act another"?

I hope to get a chance at some point to analyse the posts of some of those who did not vote for Eomer, but I have some business away from the village to attend to. Nonetheless, I think I will get some time for it about five or six hours before NIGHTfall.

Edit: crossed with SPM's second post

[Celuien]

...most of the following written before the opening of this DAY...

Hurray! We've taken out a wolf! Thank you to everyone whose eyes were clearer than my own yesterday. I had the ++EOMER vote written with the tagline "for Gifted-impersonation" based on the evasive hints he was trying to distract the village with. And was ready to submit it until the false-Guardian declaration. With no time to discuss the issue, I panicked over the possibility of lynching a Gifted and switched to Tar-A. Fortunately, enough of you were more insightful and had already voted for the tricksy villian that my error didn't make a difference.

I'm pretty sure the following are innocent based on record against Wereomer:
Morm
Nilp - first to vote Eomer.
SPM

Tar-a is most likely innocent since Wereomer tried so hard to use her as the diversion to save his furry neck.

And if I dare say it, I think the last minute business between Eomer and myself yesterday exonerates me. As a wolf, I would never have made such a visible move when it was likely that he would be revealed as lupine. I only voted the way I did on the chance that the last 'I am your Guardian' statement was true.

Now, in light of Eomer's guilt, who is looking the furriest today? In no particular order:

1. Aiwendil, who led off the shift toward tar-a.

Now, I don't want to follow Farael's specious reasoning about lynching someone for "information", but I do think that if tar turns out to be a wolf, then Eomer is probably a wolf too. That vote for Eomer on DAY 1, passed off as a random vote with no evidence, looks very much like a wolvish trick to me. And, much as I hate to mention "past lives", I've, uh . . . heard that an ancestor of Form did much the same thing to an ancestor of Spawn in a village my great-great-grandfolks lived in.

On the other hand, if tar and/or Eomer are innocent, I will certainly be taking a closer look at Mormegil.

Sets tar-a's guilt as a condition for Eomer's guilt. I think she's probably innocent. If we had lynched her yesterday and then followed this line of reasoning, Eomer would have been off the hook. At the same time, Aiwendil has been logical. He could be another tricksy wolf, but he could also be trying to reason things carefully and be afraid of makng dramatic statements as a result.

...here begins new material. By bad luck, my schedule for overnight shifts happens to conincide with DAYs here. So I'm still at work and so don't have much time to continue analysis right now. Have to be brief, but will expand after I get off tomorrow...

2. Farael - he's confusing me. Major points against him already outlined.

3. Kath - again, already pointed out as another early tar-a voter.

[Farael]

Alright, let's get this over with, I said I don't want to distract the village and I'm obviously doing so. Maybe tomorrow won't be like that. I tell you, I am innocent and I have given Aiwendil the perfect cover... that's ok, it's a learning experience but I see that I am detracting too much from you guys looking at the guilty ones.

I will probably not be around after tonight (real time) before the deadline and given that any fingers I point will only make that person look innocent I Say

++Farael

I know this will get me lynched and THAT is the idea. My goal is not to survive until the end, but to help the villagers win... and have fun. So far, it's been a fun ride... that was the point of my bonehead attack on Aiwendil, just having fun until I had something firmer to go on... and hopefully I would get on a wolve's nerves and have him(or her) make a mistake. Sadly, now it seems that whoever I accuse will either make him look innocent or me look even more guilty for straying from Aiwendil.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Since the logic behind my argument there was more complex than a simple "X is a wolf!" I don't expect you to be interested in it.

You seem quite upset there buddy... sorry if I got in your nerves too much, I was just having fun... this is a game and I felt I was taking it far too seriously so I just let loose and crazy a little. If I bothered for real in any way, I do apologise, I never meant to have fun by ruining the game for you. (and this comment is completely 'offtopic'... I would PM you about it but I can't because we are still alive so I write it here)

Yet, I still do honestly think that there are some 'issues' with him:

-See defense of Eomer, and the fact that both him and Kath voted for someone other than Eomer two nights in a rowh, both times when Eomer was one of the principal suspects.
-He is definetly playing a safe game and it seems it is his usual MO, yet he has never really voiced out suspicions... heck, if he were innocent, why is he not REALLY going after my neck? I must look like THE wolf to him after four days of being on his trail... and if I'm not mistaken, our ancestors have lived together in a wolf-infected village, so it's not quite like has any reasons to think that I'm always that limited in my pursuit of a suspect.

Now, I'm being honest whether you like it or not... I know that unless I change my style GREATLY I will be lynched sooner or later, and so I rather be lynched sooner because I would not want my death to give the wolves a greater advantage than what it would do right now. There is still some 'breathing space' and so if we are going to lynch an innocent, it better be tonight.

I thought I'd be able to slowly step backfrom my insane pursuit of Aiwendil without looking suspicious, but it seems that it only made me more suspicious as others think that I was going with the mob.

Yet I tell you, I AM innocent and if you are going to suspect me, lynch me today. If not, take my word for it.

Edit: I added the "before the deadline" when it says that I won't be around after tonight

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But if Tar were also a wolf, then it seems to me that Eomer wouldn't be particularly interested in saving himself by having her lynched. In other words, if they're both wolves, then they would have known that one of them was doomed no matter what.

You misunderstand me. I was speculating that Eomer had resolved himself to his fate and thought that, by encouraging Celuien to vote for tar, it would make a Wolfish tar look better today. At that point, it looked almost certain that he would be lynched no matter what. Eomer was on five votes and tar on three. All three remaining votes would have had to have gone to tar for her to be lynched in Eomer's place and, given the timing, it looked unlikely that Farael and Glirdan would appear.

Rather elaborate, I know. And it assumes that neither Farael nor Glirdan are Wolves. I am inclined to the view that Farael is a more likely Wolf than tar-ancalime, but I will try to take a closer look at tar tomorrow.

[The Saucepan Man]

Cross-posted with Farael's suicide vote, the possible implications of which I will have to consider further tomorrow, as now I must go.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: No, you have neither bothered me nor offended me nor ruined the game for me. You have, I admit, bewildered me. But I don't mind being bewildered now and then.

Nonetheless, I don't see how your self-vote is helpful. We want to lynch wolves. If you're innocent, lynching you won't help.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Nonetheless, I don't see how your self-vote is helpful. We want to lynch wolves. If you're innocent, lynching you won't help.

Well, I won't have time to go through any information after this post until after the deadline so I can't really vote for anyone else and expect it to be worthwile... and I'm not sure I can help the village unless I convince everyone of my innocence. There is only one way to do that and is to stop playing games and put everyone to the task of either believing me (and thus not voting for me) or not and lynch me... then they'll see I'm innocent, but I'll be dead. Still, if I'm lynched it means that enough people think me guilty to make my best efforts futile. They won't trust them until it's possibly too late.

There are many possible ways in which either my life or my death might help us find a wolf... but I won't get into them for the obvious reasons (namely, just to make sure I don't help the wolves see a way they could mess up)