Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Aiwendil]

Well, things are looking fairly bleak.

Still, we've a chance. We still have Formendacil, our precious Fool, and a known innocent can be quite a valuable thing at this point in the game.

I'm still willing to consider Nilpaurion and SpM likely innocent, given their votes for Eomer.

Celuien I still think is likely innocent given Eomer's apparent deception of her late on DAY 4.

That leaves me with Farael and Glirdan. I wouldn't be surprised if these were our two wolves.

Formendacil wrote:

I'm really tempted to say Aiwendil. The other wolf I'm not so sure, but I really want to say Aiwendil.

May I ask why, particularly? Not that I don't mind being wrongly lynched now and then, but at this point killing an innocent would practically doom the village.

I do understand, though, how my misguided defence of Eomer could be misconstrued as a wolvish tactic. On that point I can say little more than that I was wrong, though by DAY 4 I had come to think Eomer likely to be a wolf.

I do rather hope that the village is not as quiet as yesterDAY, though I have a suspicion it will be . . .

[Celuien]

I'm terribly sorry about yesterday - I intended to come back, talk some more, and vote yesterday, but I missed getting back to the village (read - my Internet access) in time.

It seems that few of us remain among the living. Of those of us left, I know I'm ordinary. We know Formendacil is innocent. I too have a hunch that SpM and Nilp are innocent. Leaving:

Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan

I'm just about certain that two of those are the remaining wolves. Of those three, I'm least suspicious of Aiwendil. Unless I can be convinced otherwise, my vote will go to either Farael or Glirdy today.

More later...

[The Saucepan Man]

This is not good. Not in the least. If we make a mistake today, then tomorrow we will be down to three innocent villagers and two Wolves and staring death right in its big, toothy maw.

That means that we have some serious thinking to do, and fast. So it would be helpful if everyone could participate as fully as they are able. No excuses. No long periods of silence. No self-votes. Just full and frank discussion. Yesterday, it seemed at times that there were only three of us in this village, and one of them is now dead. That cannot happen again, or we might as well give up now. It is only by sharing all of our thoughts and opinions that we will have any hope of distinguishing those who are genuine in what they say from those who are dissembling.

Right. Lecture over. Let's get back to work. Here's yesterday's voting record:

1. Farael for Farael (Farael-1)
2. Tar-ancalime for Glirdan (Farael-1, Glirdan-1)
3. Nilp for tar-ancalime (Farael-1, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-1)
4. Aiwendil for Farael (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-1)
5. The Saucepan Man for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-2)
6. Formendacil for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-3)
7. Kath for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-4)
8. Mormegil for Farael (Farael-3, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-4)

Did not vote: Celuien, Glirdan

Of those still with us and not proven innocent, the only ones to vote for tar-ancalime were Nilp and me. Since I am innocent and I am still inclined to think that Nilp is (although that's a working assumption, not a belief), it would appear that no Wolves voted for her. That would make sense to me as village opinion was clearly turning against her as the day progressed and it would have been dangerous for a Wolf to be caught there.

Farael voted for himself so, if it was a Wolfish tactic, it paid off. As matters stand, I think that it probably was. And if Farael is a Wolf, then I strongly doubt that Aiwendil is. Quite apart from Farael's campaign against him, I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for a fellow Wolf who had voted for himself to save himself. But Aiwendil is most certainly not off the hook at this stage.

That leaves the two non-voters. Both, I think, have provided reasons for their no-votes. But that does not mean that they are not Wolves. In fact, I think it highly likely that at least one of them is a Wolf, most likely Glirdan. Although I am beginning to wonder whether that exchange between Eomer and Celuien at the end of Day 4 may have been play-acting after all.

I am therefore fairly confident that our remaining two Wolves are to be found in the following group:

Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Celuien

And right now, Farael and Glirdan are looking the most likely candidates to me.

[Celuien]

Playing the numbers game...

It looks like everyone is agreeing that the last two wolves are to be found in the group of Farael, Aiwendil, Glirdan or me.

Farael and Aiwendil are tied to each other through their early sparring, by virtue of which I think it's unlikely that they are both wolves. But, if that short list is correct, it's a 100% chance that one of them is lupine (since I know that I'm not).

Now, of the two, Aiwendil looks the less suspicious to me. He's been analytical. Right now, the main point against him is defense of Wereomer. A charge of which I am also guilty. Having fallen victim to Wereomer's tricks, I can easily see where others could have been fooled. Though I can also see Nilp's point. Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us.

Speaking of Farael, he also looks even odder after his self-vote, particularly in light of elempi's self-vote. Once it was used by a known innocent, a wolvish Farael might have used it as cover, thinking that by doing the same thing as a known innocent, he would also appear genuine by association.

What to do today? I'm pretty confident of that short list's being correct, based on discussion given over the past couple of days. Given the Aiwendil/Farael uncertainty, Glirdan might be the best choice for today, since I'm not totally sure of which is the wolf.

Unless SpM or Nilp have tricked me. In which case you deserve to win.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us. (nice froggie )

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.

One of the Werewolves is not under much suspicion. Another finger at Aiwendil.

Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY. He might show a bit of fang.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Someone bothered to sniff out the last true Gifteds.

Well of course they did. That is surely something that preoccupies Wolves greatly while Gifteds remain in the village. Which is a point worth looking into. Did the Wolves manage to spot them or were they just lucky, as it now looks like they were with Holby?

I have seen nothing which may have suggested that Boro was the Ranger. But I did notice this comment from morm on Day 4 when I reviewed the events thus far yesterday:

Originally Posted by mormegil @ #388

Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them.

I did not want to risk blowing his cover, so I did not say anything about it at the time, but it looked like a possible Hunter hint to me. And now that we know that he was the Hunter, I am certain that is what it was.

Which is useful to know as it seems to me that, if the Wolves spotted it too and concluded that morm might be the Hunter, then they would have been unlikely to go after him if they thought that there was a risk of him taking one of them with him.

So, who were possible morm targets going into last night?

Looking back, he was quite suspicious of Aiwendil and, although his suspicions lessened as the day progressed, he remained concerned about him. He also had doubts about Farael and ended up voting for him, although it looks like that was partly because of the state of voting at that stage. He expressed some mild suspicion of Celuien, but I can't see that he had any strong suspicions of Glirdan. It looks like he suspected Kath (and therefore hunted her last night) because of her late vote for tar-ancalime, which he said he was not sure what to make of.

So, assuming that the Wolves did think mormegil to be the Hunter, Glirdan and Celuien, if Wolves, were the least likely to risk death themselves by targeting him, while Farael and Aiwendil, if Wolves, would have been taking a risk by attacking him. That does not mean that Glirdan and Celuien are the Wolves or that Farael and Aiwendil are innocent, but it's more evidence to consider.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.

I see that we are thinking along the same lines, Nilp. Although the Wolves would have been taking quite a risk in killing morm if one or both of them were under suspicion from him. I think that last comment from morm was the only time he expressed any strong suspicion of Kath.

It is possible, I suppose, that the Wolves did not pick up on the indications that morm was the Hunter, but I think it unlikely given that they would surely have been on the lookout for that sort of thing.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

One of the Werewolves is not under much suspicion. Another finger at Aiwendil.

Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY. He might show a bit of fang.

I will. Maybe I find it hard to suspect him because he said that I was probably innocent yesterday.

More on Farael:

There is this post from Wereomer, already quoted in part by our departed Hunter:

Farael
Celuien
Nilpaurion


Two wolves in there, and my bets are Farael and Nilpaurion.

I explained before how weird I thought Farael's case against Aiwendil, and the reaction from the village, was. Comes out, all guns blazing, with little evidence (as I see it) for an attack on Aiwendil. Celuien and Nilpaurion (as well as Lhunardawen, to be fair) both shrug him off as likely to be innocent. I think this may well have been the wolf-agenda for the first night. Farael decided he would pick a target and the others (or one of the others) would back him up. The village was distracted with other stuff (like the Seer talk) and would probably just take the other wolf's word for it. And that other wolf is either Celuien or Nilpaurion.

My money's on Nilp, simply because of that weirdness he pulled earlier on—that 'I feel stupid' post. That's not helping anyone. It's designed to be vague and to confuse us, and since he's under barely any suspicion (SPM trusts him because of that anagram, which I think is a very dangerous move to make) he could get away with this because the village would probably say 'Oh Nilp! and nothing more.

Like morm, I wouldn't be surprised if he really did hide a fellow wolf in that list with two innocents. Trying to pair up an ally with an innocent villager. It wouldn't be unprecedented to make the case that both members of the pair had to be wolves, get the innocent lynched, then use that to exonerate the guilty one. Which is bringing me back to Farael. Again.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.

Fair enough. If they did know morm was the Hunter, it did look pretty obvious that Kath would be his target.

But I'm not sure that Farael/Glirdy wouldn't be as capable of figuring out morm's secret profession as Aiwendil.

Ah well. Back to look at Aiwendil.

[Celuien]

Maybe I should say comparatively obvious:

Originally Posted by morm

++Farael

Kath's vote sealed the deal for me. I'm not sure what to make of her vote.

Voting for Farael to oppose Kath on the assumption of a Kath-wolf....

[Aiwendil]

Nilpaurion Felagund wrote:

Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY

Please do.

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger.

To me as well. I would think that the wolves must have guessed he was the Hunter, otherwise why not kill Formendacil?

Anyway, I think that our best bets for toDAY are Farael and Glirdan. And I admit that if I were not myself, I'd probably add Aiwendil to that list. I'd be very surprised if neither Farael nor Glirdan is a wolf; and I wouldn't be surprised if both were. It also seems conceivable to me, if unlikely, that one from among Celuien, Nilp, and SpM is a wolf.

The Saucepan Man wrote:

So, who were possible morm targets going into last night?

This is an interesting line of thought. Of course, it's possible that someone whom Mormegil suspected would have been willing to take the risk. But this does raise some doubts about Farael's guilt for me.

[Farael]

I think I was misunderstood yesterDAy. I wanted 'out' not because things were 'looking bleak' but because I have no credibility left. What ever I say, it could be just shrugged off as "more of Farael's nonesense". Now it's too late, as it was mentioned before, that killing the wrong person will leave us with only one innocent above certain death.

Given the need to discard at least SOME suspects, I will write off SPM and Nilp for their vote against Eomer. Formen is also innocent, our lovely village fool. That leaves us with Aiwendil and the two non-voters. I will go through them in alphabetical order

Aiwendil:
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 tar-a Innocent No
2 Garin Innocent No
3 Garin Innocent Yes
4 tar-a Innocent No
Note here that it was the day we lynched Eomer.
5 Farael Unknown No
I concede that, while I know I'm innocent, you all do not.

Now, one of the main points against me is that I have limited the people I have voted for and thus I'm avoiding leaving a voting record. Well, Aiwendil has voted for three people, two of them the most popular to be lynched and yet yesterDay, when tar-a seemed to be the one going to the gallows, he changed his mind and voted for me. I can see why, but he also avoided voting for someone who would soon be revealed a known innocent. Don't be fooled by my three votes against Tar-a's four, as one of the three was by myself. All in all, only two villagers thought me suspicious enough to vote for me. One was Morm, our hunter... the other might have been trying to avoid voting for someone who would be revealed a known innocent after that night.

He has played an extremely cautious game, and it has worked out for him.

Celuien
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 Gil Innocent Yes
2 Garin Innocent No
3 Garin Innocent Yes
4 Tar-a Innocent No
Now it gets fishy... Eomer MIGHT have fooled her... but how about two smart wolves, who happened to be around at the same time trying to flush out a gifted? any way, it is very convenient and... did you note that it was actually Celuien who brought up the giftedness? post 396... Eomer had not insinuated anything about being gifted in his last posts, besides telling Formen that if the remaining voters voted for tar-a it would have been marvelous.... the more I look at it, the less it seems to me it was an accident and the more it was some quick thinking by the wolves. She didn't vote in day 5

Glirdan:
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 Gil Innocent Yes
2 Lhuna Innocent Yes
3 LMP Innocent Sort of, but he was the
main suspect until then
4 No vote, he declares he will be away for three days
5 No vote

I have almost nothing to go on with for Glirdan. The votes he did cast were all for innocents on the day of their lynching (or sudden dissapearing) but honestly, I have nothing to work with.

My thoughts
Aiwendil's voting pattern is just slightly better than mine, Glirdan's is outright awful when he did vote and Celuien's is no better. There are two things that I find interesting. First of all, I no longer think that Celuien was tricked by Eomer. Second, look at days 2 3 and 4 for both Aiwendil and Celuien.... same votes. On day 3, those two votes were the difference between Eomer and Garin. It's also very suspicious that on day 4 they both voted for Tar-a which was the second-most likely individual to be lynched.

While working on this post there were several replies.... two things I'd like to mention on.

Originally Posted by SPM

So, assuming that the Wolves did think mormegil to be the Hunter, Glirdan and Celuien, if Wolves, were the least likely to risk death themselves by targeting him, while Farael and Aiwendil, if Wolves, would have been taking a risk by attacking him

Actually, I don't think that Morm was really suspicious of Aiwendil by the end of the day. And as a matter of fact, his last comment hints heavily whom he would be after should he get murdered that night. I think Aiwendil could have still taken the chance.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Anyway, I think that our best bets for toDAY are Farael and Glirdan. And I admit that if I were not myself, I'd probably add Aiwendil to that list. I'd be very surprised if neither Farael nor Glirdan is a wolf; and I wouldn't be surprised if both were. It also seems conceivable to me, if unlikely, that one from among Celuien, Nilp, and SpM is a wolf.

Add our only known innocent to the list and you will have all the villagers remaining besides himself come on, I'm no longer 'having fun' by going after Aiwendil... does no-one else see this as playing way too safe? he is mentioning everyone, so if we get a wolf toDay he can say "I somewhat suspected him" and if we get an innocent he can say "Well, I didn't really suspect him the most"

Right now, Celuien and Aiwendil are looking pretty lynchable.... specially on account of their common votes on days two three and four (mostly three and four), Celuien's "mistake" and Aiwendil's extremely safe aproach

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

Add our only known innocent to the list and you will have all the villagers remaining besides himself

Yes, that was the point. Perhaps you'd like it better if I put it this way:

Top suspects
Farael
Glirdan

Don't know
SpM
Nilp
Celuien

Innocent
Formendacil

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Yes, that was the point. Perhaps you'd like it better if I put it this way:

Top suspects
Farael
Glirdan

Don't know
SpM
Nilp
Celuien

Innocent
Formendacil

What's the point of putting it that way? We are all aware that our only known innocent is Formen.... but most of us will give SPM and Nilp a break given their votes for Eomer. It's weak but we need to start crossing names off the list and their votes for SPM is a moderately good reason to do so. You seem to add names back into the list, what for?

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

What's the point of putting it that way? We are all aware that our only known innocent is Formen.... but most of us will give SPM and Nilp a break given their votes for Eomer. It's weak but we need to start crossing names off the list and their votes for SPM is a moderately good reason to do so. You seem to add names back into the list, what for?

I'm sorry, but what are you talking about? You've again confused me. All I've been trying to say is that I think it probable that both you and Glirdan are wolves but possible that only one of you is, and that the other is one of the other three.

I think I was just morm's second option and that Kath's vote settled it with regards that he would not vote for tar to close the voting just yet.

For once, I actually agree with Farael. Mormegil seemed to have been hesitant to vote for Farael because of the ratio of the votes earlier. But with Kath's vote for Tar, he went ahead.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Farael

I think he was just trying to keep the options open, as a vote for tar would have actually made sure she got lynched. I think I was just morm's second option and that Kath's vote settled it with regards that he would not vote for tar to close the voting just yet.

You appear to be trying to argue your way up in my suspicions, Farael, which is ... interesting.

I had viewed morm's vote in the same way that you have put it, but Celuien's interpretation put a slightly different slant on it. Kath's vote might well have been seen by morm as an attempt to save you, particularly as it looked likely that Glirdan was unlikely to turn up to vote.

Once again, I must depart for the night in some confusion over Farael. I will be back tomorrow.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Farael

did you note that it was actually Celuien who brought up the giftedness? post 396... Eomer had not insinuated anything about being gifted in his last posts, besides telling Formen that if the remaining voters voted for tar-a it would have been marvelous....

Not quite true, Farael....

Originally Posted by Wereomer, 391

Mormegil, you speak of the gifteds like you know the intricate discussions they have had. Do you really know how finely balanced this is? Can you possibly understand?

Edge of a knife.

Originally Posted by Ford, 392

You speak either as a Gifted yourself, or as a Werewolf trying to befuddle us/pass on a hint to your buddies.

I wonder which one it could be...

Originally Posted by Wereomer, 393

Let me put it this way, Form: If the other three all vote for Tar-Ancalime, it would be positively marvellous.

Though I am suspicious that they won't show up. Oh dear, I knew I shouldn't have relinquished control of the internet.

And so on. Blatantly hinting of giftedness before I came around. And said hints were openly discussed by both Ford and Boro before I made it back to the village.

It seems very, very strange that you could have missed those details. And it's making you look more like a wolf to me.

I need to take a nap. Will return tomorrow.