Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us. (nice froggie )

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.

One of the Werewolves is not under much suspicion. Another finger at Aiwendil.

Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY. He might show a bit of fang.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Someone bothered to sniff out the last true Gifteds.

Well of course they did. That is surely something that preoccupies Wolves greatly while Gifteds remain in the village. Which is a point worth looking into. Did the Wolves manage to spot them or were they just lucky, as it now looks like they were with Holby?

I have seen nothing which may have suggested that Boro was the Ranger. But I did notice this comment from morm on Day 4 when I reviewed the events thus far yesterday:

Originally Posted by mormegil @ #388

Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them.

I did not want to risk blowing his cover, so I did not say anything about it at the time, but it looked like a possible Hunter hint to me. And now that we know that he was the Hunter, I am certain that is what it was.

Which is useful to know as it seems to me that, if the Wolves spotted it too and concluded that morm might be the Hunter, then they would have been unlikely to go after him if they thought that there was a risk of him taking one of them with him.

So, who were possible morm targets going into last night?

Looking back, he was quite suspicious of Aiwendil and, although his suspicions lessened as the day progressed, he remained concerned about him. He also had doubts about Farael and ended up voting for him, although it looks like that was partly because of the state of voting at that stage. He expressed some mild suspicion of Celuien, but I can't see that he had any strong suspicions of Glirdan. It looks like he suspected Kath (and therefore hunted her last night) because of her late vote for tar-ancalime, which he said he was not sure what to make of.

So, assuming that the Wolves did think mormegil to be the Hunter, Glirdan and Celuien, if Wolves, were the least likely to risk death themselves by targeting him, while Farael and Aiwendil, if Wolves, would have been taking a risk by attacking him. That does not mean that Glirdan and Celuien are the Wolves or that Farael and Aiwendil are innocent, but it's more evidence to consider.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.

I see that we are thinking along the same lines, Nilp. Although the Wolves would have been taking quite a risk in killing morm if one or both of them were under suspicion from him. I think that last comment from morm was the only time he expressed any strong suspicion of Kath.

It is possible, I suppose, that the Wolves did not pick up on the indications that morm was the Hunter, but I think it unlikely given that they would surely have been on the lookout for that sort of thing.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

One of the Werewolves is not under much suspicion. Another finger at Aiwendil.

Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY. He might show a bit of fang.

I will. Maybe I find it hard to suspect him because he said that I was probably innocent yesterday.

More on Farael:

There is this post from Wereomer, already quoted in part by our departed Hunter:

Farael
Celuien
Nilpaurion


Two wolves in there, and my bets are Farael and Nilpaurion.

I explained before how weird I thought Farael's case against Aiwendil, and the reaction from the village, was. Comes out, all guns blazing, with little evidence (as I see it) for an attack on Aiwendil. Celuien and Nilpaurion (as well as Lhunardawen, to be fair) both shrug him off as likely to be innocent. I think this may well have been the wolf-agenda for the first night. Farael decided he would pick a target and the others (or one of the others) would back him up. The village was distracted with other stuff (like the Seer talk) and would probably just take the other wolf's word for it. And that other wolf is either Celuien or Nilpaurion.

My money's on Nilp, simply because of that weirdness he pulled earlier on—that 'I feel stupid' post. That's not helping anyone. It's designed to be vague and to confuse us, and since he's under barely any suspicion (SPM trusts him because of that anagram, which I think is a very dangerous move to make) he could get away with this because the village would probably say 'Oh Nilp! and nothing more.

Like morm, I wouldn't be surprised if he really did hide a fellow wolf in that list with two innocents. Trying to pair up an ally with an innocent villager. It wouldn't be unprecedented to make the case that both members of the pair had to be wolves, get the innocent lynched, then use that to exonerate the guilty one. Which is bringing me back to Farael. Again.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger. And seeing that at his last post (#455) he seemed suspicious of Kath (well, she also was suspicious to me) the Werewolves might have taken the risk and killed Hunter-morm.

Fair enough. If they did know morm was the Hunter, it did look pretty obvious that Kath would be his target.

But I'm not sure that Farael/Glirdy wouldn't be as capable of figuring out morm's secret profession as Aiwendil.

Ah well. Back to look at Aiwendil.

[Celuien]

Maybe I should say comparatively obvious:

Originally Posted by morm

++Farael

Kath's vote sealed the deal for me. I'm not sure what to make of her vote.

Voting for Farael to oppose Kath on the assumption of a Kath-wolf....

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Voting for Farael to oppose Kath on the assumption of a Kath-wolf....

Which would suggest that he thought a Wolfish Kath had voted to save a Wolfish Farael.

I still think it more likely than not that Farael is a Wolf, but that does give me some pause for thought.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Which would suggest that he thought a Wolfish Kath had voted to save a Wolfish Farael.

I still think it more likely than not that Farael is a Wolf, but that does give me some pause for thought.

Hold on one second... Kath saving me? I had two votes right then (myself and Aiwendil) and tar-a had three... at the same time, there were three people yet to vote (morm, glirdan and celuien), so when Kath casted hers tar-a was by no means condemned... I don't think she was trying to save me, and I dont think Morm thought so... I think he was just trying to keep the options open, as a vote for tar would have actually made sure she got lynched. I think I was just morm's second option and that Kath's vote settled it with regards that he would not vote for tar to close the voting just yet.

[Celuien]

And some more numbers:

Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien
________________
Wolves: 2
Villagers: 5

Assuming that the wolves are to be found among Farael, Glirdy or Aiwendil, if we kill an innocent from that list toDAY, we start tomorrow at Wolves 2, Villagers 3. But we'd then pretty much know the identities of the remaining two wolves. What we would have to do, however, is coordinate so that all innocents vote for the same wolf tomorrow. Then we would end tomorrow at Wolves 1, Villagers 3, start the following day at Wolves 1, Villagers 2 and win the game on that day.

If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, Villagers 3. But then if we're wrong tomorrow, we end the day at villagers 2, wolves 1 and lose that night.

So what I'm trying to say is that we're better off making our mistake today. I'd therefore be more comfortable tackling the Aiwendil/Farael issue today and holding off on Glirdy until tomorrow, since that's where I feel the main uncertainty lies.

If I've made an mistakes in my numeric reckoning, please point them out.

*still looking at Aiwendil*

[Aiwendil]

Nilpaurion Felagund wrote:

Look good and hard at our good Cook toDAY

Please do.

Well, morm to me was screaming 'Hunter!' when I discovered Boro was the Ranger.

To me as well. I would think that the wolves must have guessed he was the Hunter, otherwise why not kill Formendacil?

Anyway, I think that our best bets for toDAY are Farael and Glirdan. And I admit that if I were not myself, I'd probably add Aiwendil to that list. I'd be very surprised if neither Farael nor Glirdan is a wolf; and I wouldn't be surprised if both were. It also seems conceivable to me, if unlikely, that one from among Celuien, Nilp, and SpM is a wolf.

The Saucepan Man wrote:

So, who were possible morm targets going into last night?

This is an interesting line of thought. Of course, it's possible that someone whom Mormegil suspected would have been willing to take the risk. But this does raise some doubts about Farael's guilt for me.