WWJ V: The Broken Souls

[Eonwe]

Lommy, let me clarify my now infamous Post #57:

My vote was completely random, as I felt that there was no evidence for me to follow. I don't think I would have voted for THE Ka, certainly not with all that bandwagoning going on. Of course, I'm not going to be making those 'flighty' (good word, by the way) votes any more, especially as the evidence increases. There was just a derth of information on that first day.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And you suggest that we all just accuse each other totally randomly before the seer comes out?!? And all the gifteds should come out so that they'd be killed? A very fine theory, Eonwe.

No, no of course not. That would be, um, less than smart, to say the least. This is how it works:

Everyone tries to lynch peole they think are guilty (basically you play the game). Hopefully, you can get one or even two wolves. Then, somewhere down teh line, the seer can check of three or four people from everyone's list, the ranger and teh hunter can each take one off (hopefully) and the list suddenly gets rather more narrow. And puts the remaining wolves in a very much tighter place. Of course, this only happens when there is sufficiently few people to make the list small enough to be useful. (AKA, no, the gifted do NOT rush out wildly proclaiming their innconce.) I hope that was more clear than before.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But we can try not to be! I don't think the best way of avoiding a mistake is voting randomly.

Of course we can. The whole point is to educate yourself as best you can, and vote accordingly.

[Roa_Aoife]

Sorry for the delay. Some RL chores needed doing.

Jenny Analysis
Day 1
1st post - says pointing at the too loud or too quiet doesn't normally help. Wants to get some discussion going.
2nd - Doesn't agree with THE Ka's suspicions. Wants to give more time to the silent. Wants to look at Ang and Valier. Decides to analyze Sleepy's posts.
3rd - Likes that people analyzed Sleepy's posts. Vague suspicion that the traitors are female, and towards Naria's intro. Votes Ka.
4th - Detailed vote summary.

Day 2
1st - List of living and dead.
2nd - looks at Ang for not voting for the Ka, and odd case for Holby.
3rd - Accepts Ang's defense. Thinks speculating about what Ka's innocence could have meant is irrelevant. Thinks more obvious hints may be given in the clues.
4th - Definition question
5th - Explains cross post as RL issue
6th - Thinks nothing can be proven regarding Valesse and Valier, but thinks about Naria.
7th - Explains cross-post mix-up as clumsiness

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa, thanks for doing all this work.

Sure thing. Any analysis requests while I'm at it? Really, the kicker was Thin's. Which for my analysis:

Thin is tricky. One wouldn't think a wolf would put themselves out there so much. It seems that they would rather avoid the spotlight than hog it. (No offense.) However, she's inconsistent, and she rarely came up with new ideas with all that posting. Half her posts are merely agreeing with other people's posts, or disagreeing with them. In the end, she went with the popular bandwagon. She even contradicted herself in actions by giving a great deal of credence to my "hint" but while brushing over Naria's. Now, the inconsistency may very well be stream of consciousness writing, and a product of the sheer volume of posts. But odd, isn't it, that if I wasn't actually quite so methodical a lot of this would have escaped notice despite the ammount available? Flood posting- is that a new tactic?

Enca, again adds very little to the discussion, but this may be because RL kept her absence. She did stay consistent throughout, and while I was pleased at finding the hint in Sleepy's post, I do think LMP's analysis was much more persuasive. This is what Enca based her vote on, not the hint I had pulled. Still, she's very iffy. Her lack of new information and the convenient vote can't be ignored.

Jenny is clearly a clever player, whatever side she's on. I wouldn't underestimate her. She does stay consistent on day one, though day two seems more responsive than anything else. That business about the cross-posting seems squicky, but I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt.

I did find it interesting that both Jenny and Thin suspected Naria, but failed to push the issue.

[Encaitare]

Sorry I had to run out so quickly before; I had to go do Roa's job (AKA babysit). Just a few small points for now of things that have caught my eye...

The attention to tiny, tiny details in this game is crazy! (In retrospect, it proved to be helpful in getting enough people to vote for Ka, though, so maybe it's not such a terrible thing.) However, analyzing the minutes between posts and worrying about the possibility of people falsely claiming to have cross-posted seems to be time better spent on analyzing actual statements.

One particularly interesting thing...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just came to my mind, that Jenny said she cross-posted with Thinlómien. Well there is 10 minutes gap between their votes, and Jenny's is not so very long or thorough one! Everyone knows, one can write to the post, that one has x-posted.

There even isn't that edited...xxx -thing attached to the bottom of the post.

I may be seeing ghosts here, but perhaps there could be something?

And only a few posts later, in post #128, Nogrod writes at the end that he cross-posted with the last three people, but there is no "edit" note at the bottom of the post either! So unless Nogrod was lying as well, which I very much doubt, the edit tag is not a reliable system.

I'm going to go back and try to do a more thorough analysis now.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa. No, really, I did.

[Encaitare]

Again, some more things that have caught my eye as I’ve reread the Day 2 posts.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I think he'll be more reserved with regard to narration in future. Rather bad luck on the predators if he isn't...

(bold mine) A true statement, no doubt, but it smells a bit of fraternizing with the enemy… or perhaps a slip that indicates something more deeply lupine?

I do agree with Ang, however, in that the Nogrod bandwagon at the end was very odd. Generally bandwagons lead to a lynching, and aren’t just a brief stream of votes at the tail end of a Day.

Nogrod’s post #122 reveals some interesting points about Naria – perhaps a wolf-Naria would fear that Nogrod’s bold writing could touch a little too close to the mark?

Originally Posted by Roa

I see Nogrod is as agressive and accusatory as before. I'd like to remind you that if you are innocent making yourself overtly lynchable does nothing to help the village.

I don’t see being vocal as being synonymous with overly suspicious. While it’s true that aggressive players often become controversial, and that a wolf can hide behind a loud front, it’s good to get opinions and ideas out there. Despite this statement, I really do believe that Roa is innocent due to her early vote for Ka.

Earlier I said that quietness alone is no reason to kill someone. RL happens, despite our best intentions. But when people do not talk at all, like Witch_Queen, then I think it’s time to become more suspicious of them. I’m thinking that if WQ posts nothing for Day 2, she could be a prime candidate for my vote, if not toDay then on Day 3. Maybe she’s innocent, maybe she’s not – either way she’s not helping.

There seems to be a fair amount of suspicion regarding my vote. I voted third for Ka, seventh in the total order. There were six votes left, and note how easily the final three voters formed a bandwagon for Nogrod! It would not have been impossible for a wolf-Enca to vote for someone else to tie them with Ka with two votes each, and then, as I stated in an earlier post, to sway a couple of other people to that person, rather than cast a crucial vote for a comrade. I hope at least some of you can see the logic here.

Now looking for some clues in Sleepy’s “it shall be over soon” post, perhaps not conclusive but some points to consider nonetheless:

They had called her stupid, they had laughed at her. She would show them who was better, it wouldn't be long now. (About Roa)

This connotes a desire for vengeance, as others have suggested. But as I have stated, I don’t think Roa is a wolf.

She had been cast away by society, she had been called a freak due to what she made. The people were too narrow-minded to see the beauty in her work. (about Thinlomien)

Sleepy hints at Thinlo having a macabre sense of the beautiful, which could go with the bloody fountain imagery.

Her small store was rarely visited by anyone, it reeked of the smell of death but that did not bother her, she just laughed as she did her job. (about Naria)

This has also been brought up before, as laughing while butchering is a bit, er, creepy.

Being a governess was a tiring job, you had to move about and talk to fake people while being marginably fake yourself but it was one she managed to do with ease. (about Holby)

The whole game of Werewolf is about faking people out, and Sleepy says she does it with ease.

That’s all for now. My suspicions are still rather vague. I suppose those towards the top of my list are Naria, Thinlomien (largely for the crazy multiple posting), and Witch_Queen.

I think I speak for all of us when I ask the following people to please speak up:

Witch_Queen
Gil-Galad
Valesse

I shall return around noon tomorrow to read and cast my vote.

[Naria]

Originally Posted by Enca

Nogrod’s post #122 reveals some interesting points about Naria – perhaps a wolf-Naria would fear that Nogrod’s bold writing could touch a little too close to the mark

Interesting, perhaps. True, not at all. Nogrod's bold writing is just that.
Touched too close to the mark, nah he was just annoying me.

This has also been brought up before, as laughing while butchering is a bit, er, creepy.

Creepy indeed! That's exactly what I thought when I read it. But it is nothing more than that I assure you.

But when people do not talk at all, like Witch_Queen, then I think it’s time to become more suspicious of them. I’m thinking that if WQ posts nothing for Day 2, she could be a prime candidate for my vote, if not toDay then on Day 3. Maybe she’s innocent, maybe she’s not – either way she’s not helping.

Even though I am against lynching someone because of their quietness, I would have to agree with this point. She has yet to post in this game and it is making me a little uneasy.(Bolding is mine)

[Nogrod]

Thank's for Roa especially! Good analysis - and a heroic one with Thinlómien!

But just a comment, to begin with. To clear myself a bit.

ROA: I see Nogrod is as agressive and accusatory as before.

JENNY: Relax, Nogrod. You are very quick to jump to conclusions.

EONWE: Nogrod is very uptight, it seems. But maybe that is just how he plays.

Aggressive?
I admit. When it's very silent (f.ex. the first day), someone has to do something. And If I'm being banwagond the way you all saw, you could understand some aggressiveness in defence...

Accusatory? Quick to jump to conclusions?
Not at all! What I'm trying to do, is to find hints, possibilities, oddities, revealing rhetoric, deceptions, lies etc. and try to see, whether I could build anything up from them. Then I try to point these out for everyone to see and look for themselves. What other way we villagers can work against the wolves? Let those who need to hide, do so, we should bang the gong now! But as it is now, I'm not having any conclusions about the situation, quite the opposite, more like baffled.

I really had to check my dictionary about "uptight" (yes, I remembered correctly, just couldn't believe it)! No way! I'm having fun, I really am! Quite relaxed, for it has been an enjoyable game so far.

[Nogrod]

To continue Roa's summarizations (#144), here's what I came up with yesterday (RL), as I tried to study that "late nite bandwagon".

Valesse: Started it. Baffling vote. Probably due to not reading the posts and trying to cover a pure hunch with self contradicting reasons. Bad gaming, but I would say, innocent.

Naria: The last one to vote. I had some lighter and some stronger suspicions over her in my analysis (counterattack, if you will - even though my "attack" didn't include a vote for her: so who's aggressive? ). Naria answered (#134) the light ones well, but seemed to have some trouble answering bit harder one's. Seems to dislike me anyhow, so that makes judging her gameposts a bit harder. Maybe she just didn't know who to vote, and then picked on me from out of annoyance? (Hope she sticks to her promise to leave those things out from her posts from now on)
I'll continue suspecting her, but really admit not having anything to go for seriously.

Valier: Second to join the vote. Kind of making it a wagon. What makes her interesting, is that as I found two possible pairs of wolves last night (both cases being very, very weak, I admit), still she happened to be on both of them.
The very,very weak cases:
1) Actual wolf-bandwagon, incl. Valier & Naria
2) Jenny, who had raised some suspicion (tiny one) trying to clean Valier with a lie, so Jenny & Valier?
But then again: wolfs making a bandwagon at the end of the day? wolf saving wolf? Improbable. But if they are very cunning, then possible. Well you never know the wolves now do you?
Anyhow. Nothing with Valier that would really stick. I, or someone, probably should check her posts still?

[Nogrod]

Answering Enca's post, here concerning the nonposting of the WQ, Naria writes:

Originally Posted by Naria

Even though I am against lynching someone because of their quietness, I would have to agree with this point. She has yet to post in this game and it is making me a little uneasy.

I agree with this feeling of uneasiness. I have the same feeling with Gil-Galad. And somewhat with Valesse.

But I would also like to point out, that someone not posting at all is basically not playing the game. So, at some point at least, I would be ready to leave them be and just ignore them, if we just have anything more sensible to vote. For if someone turns out to be a wolf without posting anything, S/he has not played a fair game and is a moral loser, which I think is the worst kind of losing there is. So then, no problem, even if are dead after all this: we have had a good game which could be called undecided (if someone really wants a verdict). And the cheater would have to carry the guilt.

I'm just afraid, that more probably than not, by lynching these quiet's, we lynch innocents anyhow - and that's the job of the wolves, in which we should not help them at all.

EDIT: As I have already triple-posted and have some RL to live, I'l be off too. But I surely will be around here for a bit more energetic session before the vote.

[Thinlómien]

I will never be able to comment all this! But I try to make points on some things.

I know I was posting pretty much yesterday... I had nothing else to do than play WW so I commented every little thing I thought was worth commenting.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Sleepy hints at Thinlo having a macabre sense of the beautiful, which could go with the bloody fountain imagery.

Agree that macabre sense of beautiful would maybe go with bloody fountain imagery, but the reson why Sleepy hinted that was probably because of my profession, sculptor specializing in nightmarish birds. If someone makes statues of nightmare-like birds he/she must have a strange sense of beautiful.

One thing troubles me. You're all assuming we have clever wolves. What if we don't? What if the wolves are really stupid?

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I would also like to point out, that someone not posting at all is basically not playing the game. So, at some point at least, I would be ready to leave them be and just ignore them, if we just have anything more sensible to vote. For if someone turns out to be a wolf without posting anything, S/he has not played a fair game and is a moral loser, which I think is the worst kind of losing there is. So then, no problem, even if are dead after all this: we have had a good game which could be called undecided (if someone really wants a verdict). And the cheater would have to carry the guilt.

Nogrod, I have two points.

A) Quietness is not necessarily cheating. It is one strategy among many, and it doesn't make her any safer. And, as far as we know, WQ may not have even realized the game has started.

I don't think there is any reason for ad-hominem attacks such as calling a quiet player a "moral loser", or referring to an error as a "lie" (with all the negative connotations therein) without any evidence to prove or disprove whether it was deliberate. As you pointed out earlier, this is, in the end, just a game. You claim to have little patience with rhetoric, so please tone down your own.

B) Your first several posts were urging us to 'put pressure' on the quiet players, even within a few hours of the start of the Day. Now you advise we ignore the quiet? I am confused as to what, exactly, your stance on the issue is?


Thinlo, I believe your contradictions were due more to a stream-of-consciousness writing style, and general boredom. While Roa makes good points (I really appreciate her analysis of the players), my impression of you is generally innocent.

Edit: spelling error.