WWJ V: The Broken Souls

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

One last point before I rush off-this implicates Encaitare as well as me. She was in the village where I was a blacksmith and might have been able to decode the hint.

I didn't catch that, actually. I thought it was just her joking around. I don't think that fact would condemn you, though, as a wolf-Anguirel would have not acknowledged it, hoping it would go unnoticed.

Holby didn't post much, but here is a summary of all her posts:

DAY 1

16 – Checks in.
24 – Writes that the most vocal get the highest suspicion and are lynched
25 – Joking reply to something Anguirel said about poetry.
51 – Says that Valier, Jenny, and Naria are particularly concerned about looking at quiet villagers. Votes for Naria.

DAY 2

110 – Mourns LMP, thinks at least one wolf voted for Ka. Says she ought to whack Anguirel with an anvil.
173 – Lists in detail who voted for whom. Does not suspect Anguirel, Nogrod, and Roa (is pretty certain they're innocent). Valesse, Gil-Galad, and Witch_Queen are also not suspected at this time. Mildly suspects Eonwe, Valier, and Encaitare all due to voting placement. Top suspects are Naria (due to previous suspicion and “safe bandwagon vote”) and Thinlomien (because of voting position and the possibility that Ka voted for her to separate them).
185 – Votes for Thinlomien, and agrees that Witch_Queen should be taken out for not participating.

Jenny is the only person who is not mentioned, which is odd. Perhaps Holby just forgot about her?

So her suspicion can be said to be in this order:
1. Thinlomien
2. Naria
3. Eonwe, Valier, Encaitare
4. Valesse, Gil-Galad, Witch_Queen
5. Anguirel, Nogrod, Roa_Aoife

Now, she only got two dreams, I believe. Did she hit the mark with Thinlomien or Naria? Or maybe she dreamed of someone towards the bottom of the list and was therefore assured of their innocence. It's possible, even likely, that she dreamed of Anguirel and found out that he was innocent, and therefore felt safe dropping the anvil hint. Also, she wrote that she thought at least one wolf voted for Ka; the only person she highly suspects who voted for Ka is Thinlomien. Perhaps she dreamed that Lommy was a wolf?

(On a side note, one gains a red mark after voting for an innocent whom the villagers have killed.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, she wrote that she thought at least one wolf voted for Ka; the only person she highly suspects who voted for Ka is Thinlomien. Perhaps she dreamed that Lommy was a wolf?

I don't think so Enca. In the game of WW, one can only be certain of someone else's innocense if one is a wolf or a seer who dreams about them. I think either Ang or Nogrod is the other seer, and they dreamed about me and whichever one isn't the seer. I don't think she would have posted that she didn't find us suspicious otherwise.

[Encaitare]

I apologize, Roa, for I believe I just phrased something poorly.

This is from Holby's post #173:

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Don't find suspicious at this moment: Anguriel,Nogrod (despite the heated posts) and Roa_Aoife.

Valesse I'm leaning towards less suspicious 'cause at the time of her vote there were plenty of others to vote for if she were a wolf. Gil-Galad and WitchQueen I put in this group for now because I don't see wolves being this downright unvocal and bringing undo suspicion on themselves.

Whereas I wrote in summary:

Originally Posted by me

Does not suspect Anguirel, Nogrod, and Roa (is pretty certain they're innocent). Valesse, Gil-Galad, and Witch_Queen are also not suspected at this time.

Nowhere did she say she was "certain" of anyone's innocence, but I used that phrase to differentiate between not finding someone suspicious, as with the first group, and finding someone "less suspicious," as with the second group. My bad. It is likely that the other Seer is in the first group, though.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nowhere did she say she was "certain" of anyone's innocence, but I used that phrase to differentiate between not finding someone suspicious, as with the first group, and finding someone "less suspicious," as with the second group. My bad. It is likely that the other Seer is in the first group, though.

Thank you for clarifying. I'm still not so sure I agree with you though. Since Holby was the seer, she knew that list would be looked at in event of her death. I think she left the list of "not found suspicious" on purpose, to let us know what she knew.

[Anguirel]

Roa, whether intentionally or not, you're being injudicious in constantly bringing up the other Seer as part of Holby's list of innocents. You are possibly narrowing down the wolvish to kill list.

However, Holby is a shrewd and secretive player and would not necessarily have risked her fellow Seer's life by listing them as innocent. I say we leave aside the whole Seer question. That's not your business, if you're innocent.

And I wouldn't mind surviving to the end for once, so I'd rather the wolves weren't (mistakenly or not) drawn to me by your bumbling identifications like moths to a flame.

I still suspect Enca and will probably vote for her in the morning. We have too much of a past in common.

The red marks are clearly bestowed on those who lynch innocents. That's the best innovation Sleepy's come up with yet, methinks. I wonder whether it will make us more or less lynch-happy, or not change much.

[Eonwe]

I also suspect Enca, because of her voting for THE Ka. Still. And if you already suspect her, the analysis of Holby is further fuel for the fire: it is easy to believe that she is twisting Holby's evidence in her wolfish favor.

As for me, I'm sorry I didn't vote yesterDay. Got caught up in RL activities, and it slipped my mind. But rest assured, I would have voted Enca.

[Nogrod]

So it's come to this.

Now Holby's list of "don't find suspicious" is Anguirel, Roa and me. This surely will be the wolves' killing list as well. So let's be careful with this, and try to eliminate one wolf today.

He had only two dreams, so at best only one of us is a hunch (or better grounded belief). That regrettably has some consequences about her suspicious-list. If she knew one wolf, he only knew one innocent. This is going to be tough!

Why I say so, is that my own hunches seem to be similar with Holby. I can't see Roa as a wolf, as she was the one to get us the real reason, why THE Ka was the wolf. From the others, Anguirel seems one of the least suspicious, although I must admit this being a hunch too.

Then. I was already letting off my suspicion over Naria (interpreting her action on the basis of purely "outside the game" dislikes - and I guess she could build a quite believable case on this). But as I reread some of the posts from the whole history of the game, I found one interesting case.

At post #191 Naria voted for WQ! Holby suspected Naria to begin with, on grounds of a "safe vote", and it seems, she made a "safe vote" at the day two also! For according to the rules, the person who will not post in two days is removed, and still she voted for WQ, who was on her way of "removal" anyhow!

Even if I have promised myself to be easier from now on, as not to offend anyone as much as I clearly have done - I just can't help reminding you others, that when I suggested her being very keen to vote for me after Roa apologized her wrong information about the lynches (double lynches were on!), she was quick enough to sarcastically note, that she had read the rules and knew them... So why to vote someone, a rules-knowing person would know, would be taken off anyhow? I do find this quite suspicious...

But better cases sure are needed. We are now in the twilight hours: one or two bad judgements at the vote, and we are dead, one or two good ones, and we win.