Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Eomer (grr)

Lhuna, I'd apologise a million times! Why do I always stab you in the back in Werewolf?

A million times? Still not enough.

Originally Posted by Shelob

One woe doth tread upon another's heel, So fast they follow; dear Lhuna’s drown'd.
Hamlet "One woe doth tread upon another's heel, So fast they follow; your sister's drown'd, Laertes." IV.vii

If you have had that said to Nilp, Formendacil, or Eomer, you wouldn't have had to change the line.

Anyways, I'm still amazed! Wonderful job, Shelob.

[Aiwendil]

As you might expect, we were a rather talkative pack of wolves, no less during the Night than the Day. What follows has been mercilessly edited, though I fear it's still rather long.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Greetings, fellow Wolves.

My own intention, during the Day, will be to try to post just as I would as an innocent villager. How convincingly I will be able to pull that off I just don’t know. I don’t see any need for a fixed strategy on Day 1, as we will need to react to circumstances as they develop. Best thing is to try to act just as we do when we are innocents (which means lengthy, wordy posts from me). In light of this, we should not be averse to casting suspicion on one another, although not so strongly that it forms the basis of a bandwaggon.

We should try not to be decisive in the lynching of an innocent. That doesn’t mean we should avoid voting for the person who ends up getting lynched, but we should make sure that there are enough other innocents there to cover us. I suppose that we should try to spread our votes, although I don't think it matters too much if two of us occasionally vote for the same person. We just need to avoid giving rise to recognisable patterns. I would also recommend avoiding “throwaway” votes, particularly towards the end of voting, that look like safe Wolfish votes. We should aim not to all vote around the same time, although one of us at least should probably be around towards the end of voting. Perhaps we could try to alternate this, although not obviously so. I will usually have to vote by around 8pm GMT, although there may be days when I can stay around later (not Day 1).

On Nightly killings, there are a lot of respected, experienced players in this game. But the longer the three of us stay alive while other respected players are dying around us, the more suspicious we will look. I would therefore not necessarily advocate killing off the strong players, not all of them anyway, unless we think we have spotted a Gifted. The good thing is that few will expect three experienced and generally vocal players to be the Wolves. We may be able to manipulate the lynching of a few of the quieter ones, though we will want to keep some around.

Keep a look out for the Seer on Day 1. Our reputations are such that the chances are one or more of us will be dreamed of in the first few days. We may be able to spot the Seer early because of this. Luckily, the village has a False Seer, which should work in our favour and mitigate the fact that we are prime dream candidates. The True Seer will not be sure that his or her dreams are correct until the False Seer dies, so we want to try to keep the False Seer around at least until the True Seer is dead. Once the True Seer is out of the way, it may be worth going for the False Seer on the basis that the information he or she has will still be useful to the village.

We need to keep an eye out for the possibility of a Wolf sacrifice at some point, especially if we think that (in the absence of the False Seer) the True Seer has spotted one of us and/or it looks like one of us is going to get lynched anyway. I have no objection to being sacrificed for the good of the pack, should the circumstances indicate that it would be the best thing to do. But that is probably something to consider later in the game. In the meantime, Wolf on Wolf votes are probably worth considering, if we can get away with them. Although, having said that, the more experienced villagers will be alive to that sort of thing.

Originally Posted by Eomer

It will be an honour to wolf with you two.

I can't believe I'm a wolf again...

SPM has it right (why do I think you're extremely excited and nervous about finally being a wolf?) Problem is, there is such a fear among Barrowdowns Werewolf players in general about you being a wolf that many want to lynch you anyway! Your logical posts, however, will assure that you have at least some friends in the village.

Aiwendil, I am not familiar with your style of play. Are you a loudmouth also? What a talkative, irksome Wolf team we shall be!

I get the feeling that no-one will believe that I could possibly be a wolf again and so will give me the benefit of the doubt. The Seers will not bother dreaming about me and I will last 'til the end. (I hope.)

Remember the wise words of that most brilliant wolf, the phantom. Never lie. In the game of werewolf, everything can look suspicious. People will suspect us sooner or later, but when that time comes, play it cool.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

If I had been innocent this game, I was going to start out by asking some open-ended general strategy questions in the interest of provoking serious discussion and gauging responses. It occurs to me that it still might be useful to do this, as it would 1. possibly provoke some hints from the Gifteds and 2. allow us to play the 'helpful villager' role right away.

The other matter that needs some thought is just how bold we're willing to be with wolf vs. wolf votes. A sacrifice might well be in order at some point; a decisive vote against a wolf generally gives one a free pass for most of the game. I would be quite willing to be the victim if necessary. Of course, it's a bit early to be thinking about intentional sacrifices. My feeling about wolf vs. wolf votes in general is that we should not be too skittish about them unless there is a severe threat to the potential victim already.

The presence of a false seer allows one tactic that we might want to keep in mind for a moment of desperation. Normally, if one falsely declares oneself to be Gifted, the bluff is rather short-lived, as the real Gifted will simply come forward and announce the fraud. But in this village we have two 'seer's, neither of whom knows the identity of the other. So if one of us is in trouble, a declaration 'I am a Seer; I don't know whether I'm the true Seer or not, but I'd advise not killing me' may well be effective. Just something to keep in mind.

As far as nightly killings go: I for one have never understood the attitude that some wolves take, where they seem to want to do their utmost to 'confuse the villagers'. More often than not, this means killing a villager who is attracting suspicion and is therefore not expected to die. I, for one, see no particular value in confusing the villagers. I say we keep those who are attracting suspicion alive and well and kill off those who are deemed likely innocent or who, for any reason, aren't likely to be lynched during the Day.

Well, those are my thoughts for now.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

The “standard” policy is for villagers to decide to keep the more vocal and analytical players around for a while on the basis that, if they are not Wolves, they will benefit the village. So that might stand us in good stead at the beginning. I generally come under serious suspicion on Day 3 or 4, by which time people are starting to wonder why I am still around and I start getting accused of trying to control the village - particularly if I have participated in the lynching of a few innocents by that stage (which I usually have).

I think that you should do that. It will be interesting to see how people react, although be careful that you do not come under suspicion for trying to steer the discussion into an argument over strategy rather than suspects, since that can look Wolfish (although generally, in the past, it has turned out not to have been).

One further point to bear in mind. Remember that the Ranger and the Hunter know who each other are and can communicate during the day. This has its dangers for us, but also its advantages. When one is killed, we may be able to spot the other (or a likely pool of others) from the discussion and voting record).

Well, if we do not speak again before the Day starts, good luck to you both.

And remember … be careful out there.

[Aiwendil]

Night 2

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Interesting Day 1.

So, it rather looks to me like Farael is the true Seer. His attack on me is just too random and too insubstantial to be that of a clever villager. On the other hand, I wouldn't have expected a Seer to dream of me the first Night - more likely SPM or some other veteran.

The existence of the false Seer gives us some options, though. We could let Farael live even knowing he's the Seer, as he'll be in doubt about it himself.

The downside to killing him toNight, obviously, is that if he does turn out to be the Seer, it'll pretty much confirm that I'm a Wolf. Which might be well worth it to take out the Seer, but it needs some thought.

As I see it, we have three options:

1. Kill Farael toNight, in which case:
a. He is the Seer; I get lynched tomorrow; one or both of you should vote for me.
b. He isn't the Seer; things are speeding along beautifully.

2. Let him live, hoping he doesn't do much more harm. Of course, we could easily kill him some future Night. The chances of him gathering much more useful information in the next few days are fairly slim.

3. Let him live toNight; then sacrifice (or try to sacrifice) me tomorrow (i.e. one of you accuses/votes for me). Then kill Farael the next Night. The advantage of this is that whichever of you went against me would get some real credit with the villagers, since you would have voted for me before it was obvious that I'm a Wolf.

I was thinking that tomorrow I'd start to go after the crowd that voted for Boromir - so mainly after Form and LMP (though after vouching for LMP toDAY, I would be mild against him). But if I'm going to die tomorrow (i.e. if we kill Farael and he turns out to be the Seer), it would probably be better not to go after them - right?

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Greetings fellow Wolves

OK, first off. I think that we have a slight problem. There are two possible True Seers, as I see it, and it seems that whoever is the True Seer spotted a Wolf on the first night.

I agree, Aiwendil, that Farael looks Seerish for his attack on you. His argument was semi-logical, but appeared cobbled together from what was available (and I thought that you dealt with his “misquotes” very well). That suggests to me that he may be the Seer who has spotted you as a Wolf and was looking for reasons to justify his attack and vote. I am sorry, incidentally, if I added to the suspicion of you, but my intention was to put some distance between us, should either of us be spotted, and also to associate you slightly with littlemanpoet (my bane ). You actually did a great job of encouraging Seer talk, which served to confuse and may yet assist us in finding both Seers.

On the other hand, tar-ancalime’s sudden switch from suspecting dancing spawn to voting for Eomer also looks Seerish to me. I wasn’t lying when I said that I found it strange. It is possible that, after some obligatory suspicion of an innocent, she then voted for the Wolf she had dreamed of. She was rather keen to point out that it was random, but there was really no reasoning behind it at all. Then again, it does make her look rather suspicious. I think that you shrugged off her vote wonderfully, Eomer, and happily you attracted no suspicion elsewhere.

Either way, if we kill one of these and they turn out to be the True Seer, the Wolf that they accused will almost certainly be lynched tomorrow.

I agree with your reasoning on each of these options, but they equally apply to tar-ancalime and Eomer, should she be the Seer. My inclination would be to go for the second option, but then I am not a gambler. We would be unlucky indeed if the True Seer was to spot a Wolf two Nights running (although I am a likely target for a Seer dream). So perhaps we should keep them both alive for now and watching them closely tomorrow. We could switch to option 3 during the course of tomorrow, if either of you gets into serious trouble and then kill the suspected Seer tomorrow Night.

So, who are our other candidates for tonight? The possibilities that I see are as follows:

Anguirel - A tricksy player, suspected only by mormegil (and unlikely to attract suspicion for his first vote for Boromir88), but may be the False Seer (because of his aggressive pursuit of Boromir88) and his death could implicate me (as he voiced mild, although unreasoned, suspicion of me)
Boromir88 - He's dangerous and his death would implicate all of those who voted for him (but is the frame-up too obvious?). However, he could also be the False Seer - he said that he would authorise lynchings if evidence be shown (#5) and then said only the Seer should authorise lynchings (#20). His vote to save himself might suggest that he is a Gifted.
dancing spawn - Also dangerous and suspected by few, but her death might implicate Aiwendil (who she mildly suspected) and Eomer (who mildly suspected her).
Holbytlass - Suspected by no one, but is a quiet player so may attract suspicion.
Kath - Leaves no trace, but I think she will attract suspicion for her quietness and her key vote for Gil-Galad.
Nilpaurion Felagund - Suspected by no one, and doesn't leave much of a trail. His death could implicate Farael (but not strongly, as he had already pledged to vote for him).

Any thoughts?

Overall, I think that Day 1 went as well as expected (in circumstances where it looks like the True Seer may have dreamed of one if us). All of our votes were well placed, and are likely to attract little suspicion. None were safe but, as it turns out, none were decisive either. I would have preferred someone other than Gil-Galad to have been lynched, but he was bound to go sooner or later.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Thanks to SPM for pointing out the possible Seerishness of Tar-Ancalime. I had thought her vote for Eomer a random one and the possibility that she was a Seer had not occurred to me. Having said that, I am still tend to think Farael much more likely to be the Seer. For while one could easily explain Tar's vote as a random guess (her suspicion of Spawn having been allayed for whatever reason), I can't come up with any explanation for Farael's behaviour save Seerhood. I was serious when I said that I would suspect him of being the Cobbler if there were one in this village. Of course, there's always the outside chance that one of those two is a lucky true Seer and the other an incredibly lucky false Seer.

I suppose the really gutsy thing to do would be to attack Farael tonight, hoping that 1. the Ranger isn't protecting him and 2. maybe he's not the Seer. But I'm not all that happy about our odds on item 1 and I'm downright morose about our odds on item 2. The trouble is, of course, that if he is the Seer, the longer he's left alive the more trouble he'll be when he finally does get killed.

No need to be sorry. Actually, I don't think there is much suspicion of me aside from Farael; just the occasional "let's keep an eye on him". Largely because I encouraged the Seer discussion, I suppose - which I think did effectively generate some confusion and steer the discussion into useless channels.

As for other candidates for toNight's meal (I am a cook, werewolf or not, mind you), the people I'd definitely not go for are:

Glirdan, Lhuna, Mormegil, Kath, Celuien - all voted for Gil-Galad and will undoubtedly be looked at tomorrow.

Formendacil, Garin, LMP - all voted for Boromir.

The two candidates that look best to me right now are Holbytlass and Nilpaurion Felagund, both of whom are so far completely unsuspected.

So I'd say the first thing to do is to decide whether or not to go after Farael toNight (the more likely True Seer in my opinion). And if not, then either Holbytlass or Nilpaurion will make a fine meal.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I am still inclined to view tar-ancalime as a possible Seer. The only reasoning that she gave for dropping her suspicion of dancing spawn was that she had initially been “gathering thoughts”. The commentary on dancing spawn’s analysis seemed much too detailed to me to simply represent the gathering of thoughts.

Nevertheless, I do not think that we should kill tar. For the same reason that she looks Seerish to me, she will look suspicious to the other villagers. She is a definite possibility for lynching tomorrow, and we (or at least one of us) should consider encouraging that. Aiwendil, you are best placed to do so, given that you voted for her, although we all voiced suspicions.

Another possibility is that she and dancing spawn are the Hunter and Ranger and tar’s post was intended to distance them. Dancing spawn later stuck up for her a bit. Eomer, you mentioned during the Day the possibility of them being linked (albeit to suggest that they might be Wolves), and it’s definitely something to bear in mind.

Now, what to do about Farael?

The advantage of killing him tonight is that, if he is the Seer, we will prevent him communicating any information that he may have gained through his dream tonight. What are the chances of him dreaming of another Wolf? Well, I think that I am a possible target for his dream. But there are many who are under more suspicion than Eomer and me, following the events of Day 1, so I would say that the likelihood is that the Seer will dream of one of them.

The disadvantage of killing Farael tonight is that, if he is the Seer, then Aiwendil is almost certainly toast tomorrow. I would prefer not to lose one of our number so early in the game, if we can avoid it.

On balance, therefore, I think that we should let Farael live another Day. If things go badly for Aiwendil (and I have no reason to think that they will), one of us can pile in and try to gain some credit from his lynching and then we kill Farael tomorrow night. We will just have to act as we see fit at the time. Aiwendil, you have said that you are prepared to be sacrificed if necessary, and I thank you for that. The same goes for me. But I don’t think that we should be looking to sacrifice any of our number unless absolutely necessary.

As matters stand, I will probably continue to pursue my stated suspicions of Lhuna, tar-ancalime and Celuin. I intend questioning the sudden rush of votes for Boromir88, and will probably voice suspicions of Garin, littlemanpoet, and possibly Formendacil, based on that. Anguirel looks less suspicious because his vote for Boro was the first. I may also throw a little suspicion Kath’s way too. Although much will depend on what people say tomorrow.

Finally, who to kill? Aiwendil has suggested Nilp or Holby. I would pefer to keep Nilp alive for now as I have swapped “I am innocent” messages with him by anagram and I think it likely that he will trust me and view me as innocent.

In conclusion, therefore, I would be in favour of killing off Holby. She was suspected by no one, and is unlikely to come under much suspicion tomorrow. She voiced mild suspicion of Lhuna and voted for tar, so that could help in ramping up the suspicion towards those two. If nothing else, it will provoke the usual “frame up?”, “double bluff?” type discussions. There is nothing to connect her with any of us, or indeed, most of the village, which is a good thing. With a bit of luck, she may even turn out to be a Gifted.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Hallo, comrades.

That was probably one of the more interesting Day Ones ever.

Aiwendil, I thought you played Farael perfectly. To most villagers I have no doubt that you're coming across as perfectly exasperated and 'Well, what can I say to you?' to Farael. His attack on you was extremely strange indeed. If a Seer, he doesn't know that he's true or false, so why does he make such a blistering attack on you? I can't tell for sure, but I think leaving him alive is certainly a risk worth taking. There's a slight chance that he's guarded, and a much bigger chance that a dead Farael tomorrow morning means dead Aiwendil tomorrow night. He could be the True Seer, but I think leaving him alive is the right thing to do (especially with the false Seer kicking about). I don't think it's wholly unlikely that he's just a misguided villager. But let us watch him very closely.

Interesting thoughts on who to kill. I'd certainly go along with Holbytlass as a good option. I suspect that Mormegil may be gifted: he was quieter than usual this Day One.

SPM, so that's what that odd exchange with Nilp was about! (I'm very slow on the uptake with such things.) Kudos!

I think we played Day One well; and there are plenty of suspicious characters lurking in this village. So things are looking quite good.

Holbytlass seems a good choice to me.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I know what you mean about mormegil, Eomer. I will be keeping an eye on him, but I don’t think that we should kill him just yet as he is likely to come under some suspicion tomorrow. If, for example, he is the Hunter or Ranger, we might be able to spot his companion trying to protect him.

What is your view on tar’s sudden vote for you, Eomer?

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Okay, Holbytlass it shall be.

As for our Day 2 strategy:

I had been hoping that I could more or less align myself with LMP, as he's one of the most vocal and intelligent Villagers. But after his vote for Boromir yesterday, I'm inclined to start voicing some real suspicion of him tomorrow. Also of Formendacil and Garin. I'll probably list my top suspects as Form, Garin, and Tar - Form and Garin for their votes against Boromir; Tar for the same reasons as yesterDay. But I'm inclined to back off a little from Tar since her vote looked rather random and not malicious.

I would say that perhaps one or both of you should put more emphasis on the Gil-Galad-voting crowd than on the Boromir-voting crowd, to try to minimize any apparent relation among us. It might be a good idea to suggest that there was a "wolvish scheme" in operation yesterDay to cause the lynching of Gil, an easy first day victim.

Of course, something similar goes for Tar-Ancalime.

I agree that Morm has been unusually quiet. Perhaps gifted. Not sure what to do about it, though. Perhaps best would be to try to keep his name coming up without accusing him too strongly - see if we can foment some suspicion of him.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I agree with your proposed strategy, Aiwendil.

I shall lay off the Boromir88 voters to an extent and focus instead on the Gil-Galad voters. I propose maintaining my stance that Glirdan’s early vote looks too risky to have been a Wolf's vote and it will be difficult to make much of a case against Boro, as he was forced into his vote, so I shall concentrate on mormegil, Kath and Celuin. As I said, I shall also revisit my Day 1 suspicions of Lhuna and tar. I might lay off elempi a bit – depends how I feel.

Originally Posted by Eomer

SPM, how did I feel when tar-ancalime chose me? I cannot lie: it made me take a deep breath! I'm very hopeful that it was truly random, though. It's likely that she will lay off me today. If she finds new ways of attacking me then rest assured I will know that my days could be numbered.

Anyway, I like your proposed strategies for Day Two. I will find it hard to get on the internet for a while after Days start and a little while before they end. This could help me remain at least slightly inconspicuous as long as I make a fair number of posts around the middle of the day.

I'm going to maintain slight suspicion of the tar-spawn alliance and the sneaky Mormegil, but my main target (though I won't go overboard) will remain Lhuna.

Good luck!

[Aiwendil]

Night 3

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Fellow canines -

Well, with two rather intense DAYS of discussion done with, I think we are in pretty good shape.

First of all, we've had far more luck than we've any right to. I refer, of course, to Holbytlass.

There seems to have been a sudden tendency to suspect me toward the end of the DAY. Farael's arguments still seem pretty weak to me. He really is taking what I say out of context and misconstruing me. Form is more worrisome, though he does admit that his suspicion is probably due to my attacks on him. If I can justify those attacks on DAY 3, I think he may ease up on me, or at least take me out of the prime suspect slot. LMP suddenly suspects me at the end of the DAY, after having said earlier that I looked innocent. I think that this can probably be played against him as a move rather similar to his sudden attack on Boromir on DAY 1. I'm in a decent position to make that accusation, considering my suspicion of the Boromir-voting crowd so far. SPM is also in a decent position to plant that idea, given his vote for LMP, but it might be risky for him to come to my defense.

It has occurred to me - and this idea may sound silly - that we might benefit from a code word or two. The particular thought I had went like this. At the moment, it's hard to guess whether I (or perhaps Eomer) will be a serious candidate for lynching tomorrow. We won't know until some way into DAY 3. This makes it hard for us to plan a wolf sacrifice, since we won't know until sometime during the DAY whether such a sacrifice is called for. It would be helpful, then, if I had some way of saying, during the DAY, "Okay, it looks like I'm done for, go ahead and accuse/vote for me" or "I think I can pull out of this; don't add to the fire". So it might be useful to come up with a word - one uncommon enough that we wouldn't use it accidentally, but not so outlandish as to raise eyebrows - as a signal for one of those messages.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

To my fellow Wolves, greetings

A day of mixed fortunes. It started off excellently, obviously. Holby being the Seer was an amazing stroke of luck and one that I did not expect. The first half of the Day went well enough with the vocal squad (mormegil, lmp, Boro, Anguirel and others) all getting mired down in suspecting each other. However, it was somewhat soured towards the end with the increasingly voiced suspicions of Aiwendil and, to a lesser degree, Eomer.

And what a noisy village! I was quite busy at work today and really had little chance to catch up until near the end of the day.

I currently plan on going pretty strongly against lmp tomorrow. He looks rather suspicious right now and there may just be enough votes there to get him lynched. I also think that there is a chance that he's a Gifted (Ranger/Hunter). I'll probably keep up my "lmp guilty = mormegil innocent" and vice versa ruse. There is a good case to be made against mormegil on his voting record.

As for possible kills, I am considering the following possibilities:

Nilpaurion Felagund - Pros: Not suspected by anyone; I have declared him all but innocent; looks bad for Anguirel and a few others (including Garin and lmp); he doesn't suspect any of us. Cons: I think that he will continue to view me as innocent; a potential lmp voter.

Tar-ancalime - Pros: Could look bad for Garin and lmp; possible False Seer (Day 1 vote for Eomer). Cons: Aiwendil suspected her.

Farael - Pros: He's a pain in the butt ( ); no one seems to suspect him. Cons: Probably not Gifted; could look bad for Aiwendil (but could be viewed as a frame up); would stymie my tenative Day 3 strategy.

Anguirel - Pros: He's an astute guy, could be a Ranger/Hunter (with Celuin or Glirdan, both of whom he has defended). Cons: He seems to believe in my innocence (but that could change); his vote for Lhuna looks suspicious.

Kath - Pros: Leaves hardly any trail; suspicion in her did not materialise (and probably won't to any great degree tomorrow); she's unlikely to whip up much suspicion of our foes. Cons: She is unlikely to be Gifted - otherwise I'm sure that she would be contributing more.

Boromir88 - Pros: Makes Garin and the other Day 1 Boro voters look bad; he could be dangerous. Cons: he seems to be on my side - for now; could look bad for Aiwendil.

On balance, I think that we should go for Kath, even though she is unlikely to turn out Gifted. The way things have been going, we want to keep as many vocal villagers alive as possible, because they are eminently capable of turning (or being turned) on each other and it gives us a bit of cover (being fairly vocal ourselves).

Are we allowed to do that? If so, any suggestions. Maybe a common Werewolf-type phrase, but none of us would use it unless we thought we were in serious danger of being lynched? The sort of thing someone might say when under severe pressure?

One thing, though. We haven't had much opportunity to cast Wolf-on-Wolf votes yet. And I think that we should continue to avoid them unless we are going for a Wolf sacrifice. A safe (ie non-sacrifical) Wolf-on-Wolf vote will probably end up looking rather obvious as and when one of those involved is lynched and found to be a Wolf. Most players are pretty alive to that sort of thing now, as it has become a regular part of the Werewolves's strategy. In fact, it will probably be expected. So I think that we should avoid it.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

I'm going to go through the villagers one by one with thoughts on them, particularly with respect to whether they would make good candidates for tonight.

Farael: His death would result in all the usual frame-up/double bluff discussion. But I think he may actually be of more use alive. His attacks are flimsy and they give me a chance to come off as an exasperated innocent.

Mormegil: He hasn't come under serious suspicion yet. Possible interesting repurcussions for the others who, like him, voted for Lhuna. But as SPM said before DAY 1, it's probably a good idea to let some of the other "loudmouths" survive for a while (though he has been quieter this game).

Dancing Spawn: Her death would have repurcussions for Eomer not unlike those for me if Farael were killed. Probably not worth it at this point.

Glirdan: A possibility for tonight. There was some suspicion of him earlier, but it seems to have died off. The one complication is his vote for Lhunardawen, which might - 1. bring suspicion on him tomorrow; 2. have people looking for some kind of bluff with regard to the other Lhuna-voters, including Eomer.

Nilpaurion: Another possibility, though I expect he still trusts SPM based on the anagrams. His faith in them may have lessened since Mormegil and I followed suit, though. His votes were for Farael and Anguirel, so I don't think any of us would be implicated by his death.

Tar-ancalime: She voted for Garin today, meaning that she may fall under some suspicion tomorrow. Also, killing her would only bring more attention to the other Garin-voters, including me.

Formendacil: His name has come up a few times but it looks unlikely that he'll be lynched. Comments about Mormegil regarding respected loudmouths apply to him as well, to some extent. I would consider him a strong candidate if not for his vote for me, which leads into the frame-up/double bluff discussion.

LMP: Definitely keep him alive. I think that a good case can be made against him tomorrow. Plus, his defensive rants are quite amusing.

Kath: An interesting one. She's come under just about no suspicion so far and didn't even vote today - which would seem to make her an ideal candidate. But the fact that she has been so quiet and almost entirely absent from DAY 2 may make her a suspect tomorrow.

Anguirel: Another Lhuna-voter. He doesn't seem likely to be lynched any time soon, but he may come under heavier attack tomorrow.

Garin: Keep him alive. There's still a fair amount of suspicion of him. Plus, I voted for him.

Celuien: Under some suspicion; doesn't appear to be onto us. Keep her alive.

Boromir88: Could be useful as an instrument to wield against LMP tomorrow. And there's also still a decent amount of suspicion of him.

So to me, the best candidates for toNIGHT look to be Kath, Glirdan, and Nilpaurion.

It occurs to me that we might try the following. SPM could say that I look like I'm playing my normal game and perhaps find fault in Farael's logic. This looks like a good move since it does seem fairly natural. I do think that I'm playing something like my normal game (whatever that might mean, considering I've only once survived longer than a day); and Farael's attacks are indeed flimsy. While appreciating your vote of confidence, I would then make a speculative case against you - along the lines of "It seems to me that one person has so far managed to avoid close scrutiny - SPM. Could he be a very clever wolf?" And so forth.

The advantage here would be that we each get to move beyond the safe "I'm keeping an eye on him" but we do so in a way that runs the least risk of getting one of us killed. We'd both be going against the grain, so to speak - you speaking in favor of my innocence while I'm under suspicion and me speaking against you at a time when that suspicion is unlikely to ignite anything serious.

As for Eomer - I think that it will work to our advantage that you have been a bit quieter than both of us. It's easier to avoid taking a clear-cut position with regard to you. If you do start to come under scrutiny tomorrow, I expect I'll avoid saying much about you yourself but rather warn that "there are others who are much more suspicious".

It hadn't occurred to me that we might not be. I don't see why we wouldn't; it seems to me to be rather in the spirit of the game. But if either of you think it might not be wholly legit, then we can forget it.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I am pretty much set on this course of action now. If I have time, I am going to do a few analyses, focussing on those who attracted more than one vote yesterday. This will enable me to look more closely at lmp and to develop my opinion on you. I am confident that, when I go through your posts, I will be able to end up saying that there is very little there that looks suspicious. That will also enable me to examine Farael’s case in more detail, and it should be easy to pick holes in that. I do think that there is scope to bring Farael into the spotlight tomorrow. His focussing on just one villager can be made to look very Wolfish.

While I am loathe to risk tainting my almost spotless record so far ( ), I think that others will be taking a similar look at me tomorrow. So it would be natural for you to do so. Please feel free to make the usual accusation that I might be manipulating village opinion against innocents. I have a standard response to that.

As for my approach to Eomer, I will play it by ear. Your relative quietness has worked well so far, as it is difficult to say much about you. I may try the tack of challenging one or two of your statements if anything occurs to me, provided that you are OK with that.

Possible Gifteds

The following are possible hints that I picked up on:

As I mentioned before, Anguirel defended Celuin and Glirdan quite early on, when there wasn’t much to go on (#52 and #45).

Celuin has defended Farael two days running (#75 and #163).

Garin’s “Only a fool would vote to lynch me” (#137) could be a bluff or he could be the False Seer. He has seems to be quite preoccupied with the False Seer role.

At the end of his delightful rant (#135), littlemanpoet responded to morm’s:

with:

A possible hint by lmp that he’s a Gifted? If so, it’s very subtle.

I think that he will start to come under serious scrutiny tomorrow, given his Lhuna vote. We need to keep a pool of respected “loudmouths” alive for a while to deflect suspicion of us for still being alive. I also like the “littlemanpoet – mormegil” tension since, if one gets lynched, I am sure the other can be portrayed as very Wolfish.

Agreed, although we need to try to encourage a bit more suspicion of her. I might look into doing this as I traditionally suspect dancing spawn when she looks innocent – it goes back to the game that I modded, where she was an excellent and almost entirely unsuspected Wolf. Eomer is in a position to brief against her too, as long as it doesn’t look too much like a reaction against her vote for him.

His votes are explicable by reference to his real life commitments and I genuinely think they look like unlikely Wolf votes, so I doubt that he will come under much suspicion. The Lhuna voters are bound to be under scrutiny tomorrow, so I am not sure that killing Glirdan would make much difference on that score. I would like to reduce my “possible innocent” list, so a definite possibility.

Yes, I think that he will still trust me. Towards the end of the day, however, I said that I was pretty certain of Nilp’s innocence. His death might therefore be construed as a Wolfish SpM’s attempt to make himself look innocent. Also, he’s a potential lmp voter (and he votes early). I would prefer not to kill Nilp.

My initial preferred choice. However, on further consideration, I am not so sure. Holby was quiet. Kath is very quiet. If we kill all the quiet ones, it points to some noisy Wolves.

I actually think that Anguirel may be a good candidate for tonight’s repast. The longer he says alive, the more likely I think he is to spot one of us. There’s not much to link him with any of us and he is a possible (and dangerous) Gifted.

I am sorely tempted to kill him. But I agree that he is too valuable for now as a potential weapon against lmp.

I would suggest keeping Kath and Nilp alive for now, but would add Anguirel to the list.

Glirdan is very tempting because, as I said, I would like to reduce my “probable innocent” list before adding Aiwendil to it. Glirdan is, however, a potential lmp voter. So far, he has always voted early for the person looking most suspicious at the beginning of the day. That said, as it’s a Saturday, he may be able to vote later on day 3.

I wonder whether the better choice might be Anguirel because he is a respected and experienced player and his death makes it look a little less suspicious that the three of us are still around. At the same time, we still have enough other experienced “loudmouths” for cover. If he’s the Hunter, now would be a good time to kill him.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Greetings comrades!

Holby the Seer, ho ho ho....

Anyway, my pick for tonight's attack was Nilpaurion Felagund, because no-one suspects him (he's also not trying to get lynched—is that in any way weird? Maybe he's a gifted...) however SPM gives good reasons to keep him alive: Nilp and SPM have established a little friendship, and any response SPM makes to Nilp's death could look a bit suspicious—SPM will be linked somehow, someway.

I would prefer to keep Kath alive: I think her quietness is more severe than Holbytlass's, and I think it can definitely be used against her.

An attack on Glirdan would be fine by me. I would have no problems in taking out either Anguirel or Formendacil either. Farael, Dancing Spawn, LMP, Boromir, Mormegil, should all stay definitely.

As to Dancing Spawn's critique of me, I was nervous that I defended myself a bit too vigourously. I will certainly not start a fight with her today; but I will meet her challenge. My defence would have been identical had I been innocent: I don't think the case against me is strong at all.

SPM, perhaps it would be a good idea if you put a bit of suspicion on me. I would urge you to pretty much regurgitate what Spawn said about me, because I have pretty convincing answers to everything she said. On the end of Day 3 you could say something about me like 'Spawn could be right: maybe there is more to Eomer than meets the eye; but I think there are other characters worthy of more suspicion in this village.'

I would be against a wolf-sacrifice, and this is why. There is already suspicion against me and Aiwendil. If SPM were to jump in now with a vote for, say, Aiwendil and Aiwendil is hanged and found to be guilty, that would by no means grant SPM immunity. The village would be kinder to Farael and Morm (I think) because they got there first. Also, the wolf-sacrifice is well-known now. Back in the days of Werewolf VII, when a certain victorious wolf ruthlessly sacrificed his fellows Kitanna and Orominuialwen it was new and shocking; but folks are wise to it now; and when (if) the first wolf dies, we should use this fear and turn it against the innocent villager who discovered our identity (at this stage, likely candidates for this attack would be Farael or Spawn).

Another point about tonight's attack: I think Glirdan will be easier for us to manipulate than Anguirel or Formendacil. Should that count against killing him?

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I am now rather regretting my little comment towards the end of the day concerning my belief in his [Nilp's] innocence. His death tonight might look good for me if he is the Hunter or the Ranger. But I tend to think him an Ord, as his anagram declares.

I think that it might. Glirdan can be quite the flip-flopper, while Anguirel is a more difficult proposition.

Aiwendil, any objection to taking out Anguirel?

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

I agree with Eomer that Anguirel is probably a better target for toNIGHT than Glirdan. I'll PM Shemod as well later.

About wolf sacrifices: I agree that they're probably not of much use to us now. I don't think that they've completely lost their power since the exploits of you famous ancestor, though, Eomer. In particular, I recall that in Alcarillo's game, wolvish Formendacil got a free pass for just about the entire game after his early vote for fellow wolf Spawn. Seems to me the key is that the sacrificial vote must appear decisive. But, anyway, I agree that it's probably not worth considering a sacrifice at this point.

Well, that's about it, I guess. If I don't PM again before DAYbreak, good luck to us!

Originally Posted by Eomer

I have what I believe is a good case against Spawn. Basically, I will argue that she is suspecting me (and voted for me, no less) on such-and-such grounds: grounds that she herself is treading. She's doing pretty much what she's angry that I'm doing. So I'm not going to attack her strongly, but I will certainly meet her challenge and trust that the other innocents will flock to my banner.

So SPM, you must post some suspicion against me in the first half of the day. I will only be able to get onto the internet about early afternoon tomorrow. At that time I hope to see another post by Spawn against me, and one from you saying that Spawn has made good points. Then I will come in, destroy (hopefully!) Spawn's argument, question her motives, then you will be left with no option but to admit that my response was a good 'un. Again, along the lines of 'Eomer still looks pretty suspicious, but my attention is given to others right now.' And talk about LMP again, probably.

Aiwendil, I'm hoping to get a little bit of response to my Farael question. Hopefully, we can drum up some support for you against Farael. I don't think it would hurt to say that he's hiding in his own boldness and stubbornness.

[Aiwendil]

Night 4

Originally Posted by Eomer

Hello comrades!

As thrilling as that was, I must say I'm becoming more pessimistic about our chances of winning. It looks like Aiwendil and I will both be lynched, quite possibly in the next two days.

Still, we have a kill to work out. I suspected Spawn and Nilp are the Guardian and Hunter. In a post earlier today Spawn simply declared 'Nilp is innocent'. Any thoughts?

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

What a day!

So, Eomer and I have both come under some heavy attacks. The three who voted for me were Farael, Boromir, and Form. Of those three, I'd say only Farael is nearly certain to vote for me again tomorrow. Formendacil has not offered much in the way of a case against me. I expect I might be able to persuade him to give me the benefit of the doubt. Boromir I'm not sure about.

So I think that I can probably survive DAY 4. The attacks against Eomer worry me more. I tried to build on the similarities between Eomer's "shrill" defense and the similar defense offered by LMP earlier to suggest Eomer's innocence, but I don't think anyone bought it. Nonetheless, it looks to me like as decent a strategy as any. But I fear that Eomer may be toast no matter what is said in his defense tomorrow.

I think that our choice for a kill toNIGHT is going to hinge critically upon our intended strategy for tomorrow. It seems to me that this is one case where it might be an effective tactic to take out one of those who looks likely to vote for me or Eomer tomorrow. I'm thinking mainly of those who voted for us other than Farael and Spawn. So first of all, we need to decide whether it's worth doing something as bold as that or whether it would be better to take it for granted that one of us will die tomorrow and try to set things up as nicely as possible for the survivors.

Another option, bolder and perhaps quite foolhardy, would be to take out either Farael or Spawn. It would, obviously, get people into the frame-up/double bluff debate. The obvious downside to such a move - that it puts either me or Eomer right in the spotlight - is somewhat moot now, since we'll be in the spotlight in any case. If we felt more or less sure that, say, Eomer was going to die tomorrow, it would probably be worth killing Spawn, simply because that would throw another (very unpredictable) variable into the mix and would have a chance of changing a few minds.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

What a day indeed!

Eomer, I am afraid to say that you are looking in quite bad shape. I thought at one point that you would be lynched today. Not as a result of anyhing that you said or did. I thought that you handled it very well. I am not really sure where all that came from, as dancing spawn's case, however accurate, is not that great. I wonder whether she is a Gifted and her ally is one of those supporting her. Mormegil, perhaps? I am sorry if my own case against you contributed. I was following the strategy we agreed last night of echoing spawn's case. And then lmp's outburst happened. I tried to back off a bit at the end of the day and support your case against spawn, but I had to be careful. Still, you only received two votes out of a possible 13, so it's not certain that you will be lynched tomorrow.

Aiwendil, I actually think that you look in altogether better shape. Farael did not vote, so you only received 2 votes - from Formendacil and Boro. Form's was based on his previous day's vote, as he was otherwise indisposed for most of the day, so didn't have a chance to update his thinking. I think that I have a good rapport with Boromir88, so might be able to persuade him away from you. Anyway, I intend continuing to support you. There is really very little evidence against you.

Surprisingly, I am in great shape. I don't really quite know why. I have been trying to behave as I would an innocent, which normally brings me under severe suspicion by now. And I thought that my cynical attitude to lmp might cause some bad feeling against me. Funnily enough, the whole episode with him probably worked in my favour, as I was able to walk away from my case against him much more easily than if he had been lynched and shown to be innocent. And I really think that your briefing against me helped, Aiwendil, as it helped me get that whole "why is he still here?" thing out of the way.

So who should we kill today?

Dancing spawn is a definite possibility. It could well mean the end of Eomer tomorrow, though, so Aiwendil and I would need to consider how we should react. We could either go against Eomer ourselves or take the position that it looked like overly risky behaviour for a Wolfish Eomer to kill spawn. It would be a delicate balance, and I think that a lot of people would be prepared to believe that Eomer, as a Wolf, would be bold.

Eomer raised the possibility of Nilp and dancing spawn being the Ranger and Hunter. It's possible that Nilp is a Gifted, although that would mean he was lying in his anagram (for shame ). And I am not sure that dancing spawn would have been so bold to have declared her fellow Gifted's innocence in the way that she did. I do, however, believe that spawn could be a Gifted. Along with one of the others who supported her case against Eomer. Which points to mormegil.

Problem 1. If spawn is the Hunter, she will undoubtedly kill Eomer tonight, which would put us a Wolf down going into tomorrow and possibly two Wolves down coming out of it.

Problem 2. If spawn is not Gifted, she seems to me to be a prime candidate for Ranger protection. We don't want to waste a kill if we can possibly avoid it.

Any other possibilities? I don't want to kill Farael, as I don't think that you are in that serious a position, Aiwendil. Besides, he may well start looking suspicious for his plan to lynch lmp and for his non-vote (it could be made to look like lmp had put a spanner in his plans). And Formendacil and Boromir88 are out for the same reason. Kath and Celuin are possibilities. But I think that I would rather keep them. Tar-ancalime might be worth considering. It might reflect badly on spawn, and possibly relieve some of the pressure on Eomer.

So, Glirdan, Nilp, tar-ancalime or spawn?

The main question, I suppose, is to kill spawn or not to kill spawn.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'd love to kill Spawn. There's a good chance the Guardian protected Spawn last night because that's when she really started going after me. Even if he/she didn't it's quite possible that he/she will leave Spawn well alone, so obviously involved in the discussion as she is. Of course, she could be the Guardian herself.

It would be a risk, certainly a risk; but because no wolf has been caught yet, this game has been too hard to predict Guardian activity.

We need to start killing the Hunter, the Guardian, and the False Seer. We can't have these people ready to declare themselves at the end of the game.

If Spawn is the Hunter then it would be worth losing me to take her out. I will be lynched sooner or later regardless.

I also agree that Farael will look quite bad today, and this might be the best opportunity to go on the attack. How do you think such an attack could be structured?

Tar-Ancalime's a strange one. She was under quite a lot of pressure near the start of the game but it has disappeared somewhat.

So, tentatively, Spawn is my choice for the attack. And don't discount my chances of avoiding the noose tomorrow, even if we get her!

Originally Posted by Wolfy Sauce

An attack on Farael should not be too difficult to pursue. We have laid the groundwork already. He suggested lynching littlemanpoet to get at Aiwendil. I think that he can still be portrayed as a Wolf who is limiting his attacks to a few innocents. He probably will go back to attacking Aiwendil tomorrow, which could work to Aiwendil's advantage. There are still quite a few who believe you likely to be innocent.

I agree that you should go against mormegil tomorrow, Eomer. His approach to littlemanpoet can be viewed as "flip-flopping" (but don't use that word). I was planning on attacking him myself, but I may lay off him a bit. I'll see how things go.

On further consideration, I think that we should not attack tar-ancalime tonight. Suspicion of her was beginning to rise towards the end of the day and she may well come under attack tomorrow, particularly if we kill spawn.

And the more that I think about it, the more I agree that we should kill spawn. I have a feeling that she is a Gifted and, even if she is not, she is dangerous.

I am not sure yet what strategy I will adopt. It will seem strange not to look at the Garin voters, which will involve looking at you both. But, given the way things went yesterday, the voting record can be made to look unreliable. And Garin was definately looking suspicious, so your votes for him do not look unduly strange.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

As for the proposed candidates for tonight's kill:

Glirdan is a possibility. He's not under much suspicion and his death wouldn't leave an obvious trail. I'd say that if we don't kill Spawn, we should kill Glirdan.

Nilpaurion - Rather like Glirdan. I'd prefer Glirdan on the off chance that he's Gifted, though (I rather doubt that a Gifted Nilp would lie in an anagram).

Tar-Ancalime - I agree that suspicion of her seems to be on the rise again. I also don't think that her death would put that much pressure on Spawn.

Spawn - The big decision, obviously. If Eomer is willing to go for it, killing her would at least make things interesting tomorrow. Much as I fear she might be the Hunter and that we might go into DAY 4 down a wolf, it also seems to me that if she is the Hunter, she's likely to continue to hunt Eomer. Which would make now as good a time as ever.

So Spawn looks like the best choice for tonight to me as well.

The one further thing we have to decide is how SPM and I should react to the inevitable Eomer situation tomorrow.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Given what I said about Eomer yesterday, and particularly if we kill spawn tonight, I think that I am going to have to maintain my suspicions of him. I will make the usual point about it looking very risky for a Wolfish Eomer to kill spawn. But I cannot back down from my suspicions on that basis alone. Looking back, I actually wish I had voted for you yesterday, Eomer, as you only received 2 votes, whereas Garin received 4. However, at the time I voted it looked quite possible that you would get more than 2 votes. So, for my part, I will maintain my suspicions of Eomer. If it looks likely, from what people are saying, I may even put in an early vote for you to try and gain some credit if you are lynched, if that's OK with you.

As for you Aiwendil, I think that you are in a much better position to try to counter the inevitable suspicion of Eomer. However, it is up to you, as you could be left in a dangerous position if he is lynched. Perhaps best to play it by ear and see if there are any others who are not convinced of Eomer's likely guilt.

Originally Posted by Sauce Wolf

If we think that he is quite likely to be lynched, I wonder whether it might be worth Eomer claiming to be the False Seer? If it comes off, we may be able to get the real False Seer lynched and at the very least we would identify him/her as a kill for tomorrow night (and thereby avoid him/her becoming a known innocent later in the game). Or might it look too transparent?

In any event, it would have to be pre-emptive to look at all credible, ie before the False Seer declares (unless the False Seer declares in a situation where he/she is likely to be lynched).

Originally Posted by Eomer

Anyway, I am very happy to attack Spawn tonight. Even if she is the Hunter, I will remain her target for the whole game, probably. And we can't have the two gifteds and the false Seer hanging around.

The option of me claiming to be the False Seer is intriguing. I think it might be worthwhile. But I'll have to play it by ear.

If I die soon, here's something you should make the most of. It's famously a bad idea for the wolves to defend each other within the game, so much so that my defences could tell quite the story once I'm gone. You may notice that I have given my trust to both of you, Aiwendil and SPM. You should play this for what it's worth. Say that a wolf wouldn't be so obvious to trust his fellow wolves, and that wolf-Eomer was probably trying to set you up (more so SPM because Aiwendil is already under some pressure).

And about tomorrow, if we do manage to kill Spawn and I'm still alive: I'd appreciate it, even though you may have to vote for me, if you accept that my defence against Spawn's accusations is very fair. You never know: that could make Formendacil or Kath or whoever sympathise with me.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Spawn 'tis.

You know, I think that Eomer claiming to be the False Seer is a great idea - if his death looks certain. If it does, I can see no downside to the claim. Yes, it would be transparent, but that would be quite irrelevant if Eomer's dead in any case.

So my advice, Eomer, would be that you wait and see how likely you are to be lynched. If you think don't think you can pull out of it, "come forward" as the False Seer. You could have some fun making up false dreams too . . .

I agree that I'm in a good position to defend Eomer tomorrow. But I think I'll argue that Spawn's accusations are rather specious, rather than trying to build up a case for your innocence in and of itself.

I've been trying to guess who, besides me and Eomer, is likely to emerge as a lynch-candidate tomorrow. We seem to be at a stage where just about everyone is under some vague suspicion but no one has emerged as a clear favorite. I'm interested in trying to figure this out because, while I'd like to cast a vote that might save Eomer, I don't want to look like I'm "bandwagoning". So my hope is that if I pick my target correctly early tomorrow, I can remain fairly consistent all day.

A final thing to consider is how we ought to react if Spawn is indeed the Hunter and takes Eomer down with her tonight. In such a case, we may very well be able to get things rolling against Tar-ancalime on the basis of her DAY 1 "random" vote for him.

[Aiwendil]

Night 5

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

The good news is that suspicion of me has dwindled and you remain in excellent shape. Also, I think the groundwork has been laid for Tar to be lynched tomorrow, and maybe Farael after that. I think, if I may say so, that I played up the idea of a Tar-Eomer connection effectively. At any rate, Mormegil has certainly bought it and Boromir may have as well. Indeed, Mormegil agreed with my suggestion that the trio is Eomer, Tar, and Farael.

Farael will no doubt take Eomer's guilt as evidence that I'm a wolf, and will point out my defense of him tomorrow. But at this point, I don't expect that many will buy it. Despite my vote for Tar, I did make a pretty strong point toDAY of claiming that I thought both Tar and Eomer were wolves. I think I can use this to counter any charges that I was trying to save Eomer.

I am rather unsure about whom to kill toNIGHT. Earlier, I was rather inclined to kill either Boromir, Mormegil, or Formendacil. My reasoning was that 1. I think it's likely that either Boromir or mormegil (or both) is Gifted; 2. YesterDAY it looked like Formendacil and Boromir might fall in line with Farael and go after me; 3. Formendacil is a known innocent.

However, those options look less and less appealing to me. I'm no longer in imminent danger of being lynched (I think), so taking out Form or Boromir probably isn't as worthwhile. And since Boromir and Mormegil seem to be highly suspicious of Tar, they could be useful tomorrow. Also, I suppose the Ranger will protect Formendacil toNIGHT.

I guess the real choice is which group to choose someone from: Boromir, Mormegil, Formendacil or Kath, Celuien, Glirdan, Nilpaurion. Do we try to kill a Gifted and risk damaging the case against Tar and Farael, or do we play it safe?

I imagine that if either Mormegil or Boromir is the Hunter, there's a good chance we could take out two innocents in one stroke toNIGHT.

Originally Posted by The Wolfman Sauce

My surviving comrade

I think that we are both in great shape. Me, obviously, for my vote for Eomer and the fact that (astoundingly to me) most people still seem inclined to trust me. And you are looking a lot better than you were a day ago. I think that you can pass off your vote for tar as you were not the only one to vote for her and she remains under suspicion. You did a great job of linking her with Eomer, and that idea was reinforced in subsequent posts. The danger for you will arise as and when tar is lynched and found to be innocent. Farael will continue to be a thorn in your side, and will no doubt bring up your defence of Eomer tomorrow, but he backed off from his accusations of you considerably towards the end of the day. And it looks like he is going to be under a lot of suspicion tomorrow, anyway.

So, who to kill? Or, perhaps it is better to consider first who not to kill.

Obviously, we do not want to kill tar. And I think that we should leave Formendacil alone too. The Ranger may not protect him tonight (thinking that we would assume him to be protected), but I think that he or she is more likely to do so than not. Others who will come under suspicion tomorrow are Farael (for his erratic behaviour and for his no vote), Kath (for her tar vote and for her quietness) and Glirdan (for not turning up and for not voting). So I think that we should leave all of them alone.

Which leaves Celuien, Nilp, Boromir and mormegil.

Celuien: She looks like she was duped by Eomer into voting for tar yesterday. But that could be made to look like Wolfish interplay. She is quiet and non-committal, which can be made to look suspicious. And she is, I think, relatively trusting of the two of us.

Nilp: Voted first for Eomer, and so is likely to be thought innocent. However, I think that makes me look good for trusting him. And I think that he will continue to trust me in return. He also said that, if Eomer turned out to be a Wolf, Boro would look bad. Although Boro voted for Eomer, Nilp could view that as a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Boromir88: A possible choice for tonight's kill. I have said that I think him innocent, so the proof of that may reflect in my favour. However, he may come under suspicion tomorrow. There is Nilp's comment about the consequences of Eomer being a Wolf, and tar voted for him. It is quite possible that his vote for Eomer will be seen as a Wolf sacrifice, given that he said earlier that he was going to vote for tar (I will not be bringing that up though, as it may lead people to look at my vote).

Mormegil: Tentatively, my choice for our kill tonight. After his pursuit of Eomer, he is likely to be thought innocent. Also, I actually think that his death may heighten suspicion of tar and Farael, as people have seen that the Wolves are prepared to double-bluff with their kills. Some may say that the Wolves would not attmept it two nights running, but that in some ways makes it look even more Wolfish (ie the Wolves can be portrayed as banking on the villagers thinking that). However, my main reason for wanting to kill mormegil is this:

Is that a Hunter hint? Why would mormegil hint at being the Hunter? Quite possibly because he thinks that he has identified the other two Werewolves, and he doesn't think that they will dare kill him. If he is the Hunter, the Ranger won't protect him, obviously. And if he is genuine in his suspicions of Farael and tar, we have the opportunity, as you say, of taking out two innocents in one night. Moreover, if mormegil is the Hunter, we may well be able to work out from what he has said, and from what others have said about him, who the Ranger is.

My only reservation, if he is the Hunter, is that he is bluffing with his stated suspects. Even if he is, he will most likely take out another innocent. I really don't think that he suspects me, especially after my Eomer vote, so the only danger is that he secretly suspects you and will target you tonight.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

I'm certainly leaning toward killing either Mormegil or Boromir toNIGHT. I have a feeling that one or both of them is Gifted - though I'm not entirely sure what gives me that impression.

The drawback I see to killing one of them is that we would probably be eliminating our own supporters in the case against tar and Farael. Still, it would be worth it if we could take out a Gifted. I tend to agree with you, then, that it should be Mormegil (who will looks less suspicious than Boromir tomorrow).

Before we finalize it, though, I'm going to have a look through both Boromir's and Mormegil's posts for possible hints.

Originally Posted by The Wolfpan Man

My fiendish friend

I have done the same, as four pairs of Wolfish eyes are better than two. I came up with the following:

Morm quotes:
While I possess great physical prowess and dexterity it's my mind that has won me many a battle. I am able to out think my opponent and that, my friends, will be your greatest asset ... (#11)
So I made a preemptive strike. (#169)
Anyway, notice in this post how Garin begins to attack LMP but backs off and twists it to continue his assault on Boromir, who as many others feel seems more or less innocent. (#260)
Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them. (#388)

Boro quotes:
Note that most of his posts bear the White Tree symbol.
mormegil: seems pretty innocent. I'll wait for him to conjure up a rediculous plan before I tell him how wrong it is and start suspecting him for getting us distracted with such ludicrous ideas. (#113)
lmp, I almost want to say lynch me so people see behind your twisted words, but no that wouldn't work well. (#138)
But, morm has backed down from his suspicions now after hearing lmp, so I don't think him that suspicious as the other two I will mention. (#164)
Mormegil I'm still unsure about, and because of that I don't want to rashly lynch him yet, especially since he's good to have around. (#164)

They have hardly accused each other, and, when they have done so, it has been in the mildest terms. Also, they often seem to be posting at the same time (which might mean nothing as I believe that they are in the same, or a similar, time zone, but it could have been arranged during daytime PM'ing).

I feel relatively confident now that we have found our remaining Gifteds and that morm is the Hunter, while Boro is the Ranger. Of the two, I think that we should kill morm tonight, while his suspicions are (seemingly) diverted towards tar and Farael. We may not get another chance. If morm is the Hunter, then Boro would seem a good choice for the following night. Form, we can afford to leave in the village for a while, if we have an opportunity to kill the useful Gifteds in the meantime.

Originally Posted by Sauce, the over-analytical wolf

A thought just occurred to me.

Assume that morm is the Hunter and Boro is the Ranger. They can PM each other during the day. What if they agreed that mormegil would outline clear suspicions at the end of the day and drop a heavy Hunter hint at the same time, and that Boro would protect him that night? He would lose his Hunter ability for the Night, yes. But, if he survives and no one else is killed, then he and Boro will have a strong indication that neither of morm’s stated suspects are Wolves since, if they were and they took the hint, they would not dare attack him. On the other hand, if someone else dies, then Farael and tar will be looking very Wolfish to him.

On reflection, therefore, I wonder whether we should kill Boro. He is looking innocent to many of the villagers right now, and I have expressed my belief in his innocence, so he is not a bad target even if he is not the Ranger. And, if I am right in my speculations above, then it is quite possible that morm will declare himself as the Hunter tomorrow and go strongly against tar and Farael.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

That's an intersting theory. I certainly wouldn't put something like that past Mormegil.

But - suppose it's like you say, and we kill Boromir toNIGHT. Tomorrow, we lynch Tar. She's revealed to be innocent. So tomorrow NIGHT, Mormegil knows that his suspicions were off and re-considers whom to hunt.

In other words, it seems to me that once Tar is dead, Mormegil, if he's the Hunter, will become all the more dangerous.

Originally Posted by Lupine Sauce

I see the sense in what you are saying. We may not get another opportunity to safely kill him again. In that case, however, we may decide not to kill morm and go for Formendacil instead (particularly with the Ranger out of the way, if Boro is indeed the Ranger). A revealed morm is nothing but a known innocent if we decide not to go after him, which is exactly what Form is right now. We can then decide when best to kill him, or even leave him be if it looks like we can still win, even with a known innocent in the village.

I do prefer the Boro option because, even if he is not Gifted, his death does us little harm and, if anything, benefits us. And we have no guarantee that morm is the Hunter. If neither of them is Gifted, then I think the Ranger would be more likely to protect morm than Boro.

In addition, I think that morm is far more likely to be of assistance in getting tar or Farael lynched. Boro can be rather mercurial in his supicions, whereas morm falls more on the single-minded side.

Originally Posted by The Brown Wizard of Wolves

Yes, as I think about it, I become more and more inclined to kill Boromir. We may still be able to kill Mormegil tomorrow NIGHT; even if Tar is lynched and found innocent, I expect Mormegil will not immediately come around to suspecting me, and it's unlikely he would suspect you.

[Aiwendil]

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

My canine colleague,

I think things went more or less as well as we could hope toDAY. You are deemed completely innocent due to your vote for Eomer. I am still under scrutiny, but it seems that of the non-Eomer voters, I am perhaps the least suspect. The fact that it's been so quiet works in our favour, I think - though it leaves less room to hide.

Anyway, I suppose the big question toNIGHT is whether to kill Mormegil or Formendacil. What it really comes down to, I guess, is: 1. How sure we are that Morm is the Hunter; 2. How likely it is that he's hunting one of us.

I'm still rather inclined to think he's the Hunter, particularly given that we were right about Boromir. Nonetheless, I want to see how well I can convince myself of it.

Farael is almost certainly not the Hunter, given his self-vote. Nilp is probably not, either, given his anagram. But I would like to go back over the posts of Celuien, Glirdan, and Kath for any possible hints of Giftedness before we settle on Morm.

But, let's suppose Mormegil is the Hunter. The next question is whether it's possible that he's hunting one of us. We can be virtually certain he's not hunting you. But what about me? Early in the DAY, he picked up on my attempts to save Eomer and said that I was looking suspicious to him:

He later backed off of this, saying:

Late in the DAY, he said:

Now, if we take what he says at face value, it seems rather unlikely that he'll hunt me tonight. Much more likely he'll go for Farael. However, it strikes me that it's possible he was trying to set me up and quiet any fears I might have of killing him.

Also, we have to consider how he'll react to Tar's innocence. He seemed fairly confident of her guilt earlier. Will he see this as further evidence that I was trying to save Eomer by casting suspicion on Tar?

Well, those are some things to think about. I am definitely leaning toward killing Mormegil tonight. He's only likely to become more dangerous later.

Originally Posted by The Lycan Man

Wolf Ngaurondil

I have to say, though, that I think the day went rather magnificently, although it was a bit of a roller-coaster ride early on.

Boromir88 turning out to be the Ranger was of course great. I had convinced myself that he was because of those White Tree icons. Strange how no one really commented much on his death. With Boro having been the Ranger, I am almost certain that mormegil is the Hunter.

The Day took a bit of a downturn with morm's initial suspicions of you. You handled that very well. But then, just after I had made a strong case against Farael (who's bizarre logic is his own worst enemy), he went and voted for himself. I thought that might get some villager's sympathy (as it did Formendacil's), but decided to maintain my suspicions of him as it could easily be viewed as a Wolfish ploy. After that, things just got better and better with everyone seemingly turning against tar. She did not help herself with that one short post. Indeed, neither Kath nor Glirdan really helped their causes either. The longer their lack of any substantive input goes on, the more suspicious they will become. And I found it amazing that we virtually had the run of the village ourselves for much of the day, to plant the seeds of suspicion at our leisure, if you will. The only concern here is that it makes us noticeable, and people will start wondering why the Wolves have not killed us (especially me).

It is excellent that you got away without voting for the Day's lynchee for once. I considered voting for Farael, but thought it best that we vote differently and tar looked the more likely to be lynched. With my record it was better that I voted for her. Actually, I almost considered voting for you, but I was concerned that morm and Form might follow suit. It would also have been rather illogical, based on the suspicions that I had been airing.

The case for killing morm is that he is (I am sure) the Hunter and, as you say, he backed off his suspicions of you considerably towards the end of the Day. His innocence is virtually accepted by all and, if he is the Hunter, he might declare at any time and become a known innocent. We also have the chance of taking two villagers down with one kill. The case for not killing morm is that there is a reasonable chance that he will Hunt you tonight, especially with tar being proved innocent. Your vote for tar on day five now looks dangerously like an attempt to save Eomer. In addition, I do think that morm is easier to persuade than Form. That's not to say that we can manipulate him, but he does take notice of what others say and pays attention to well-made arguments. I also have a rather selfish reason for not wanting to kill off morm. As long as he is around, I look less suspicious for still being alive. And, let's face it, with morm dead, you and I will be virtually the only villagers left speaking.

Problem is that, the longer he stays alive, the more likely he is to Hunt one of us as and when we do kill him. So, unless he is to stay around until the end, we probably ought to kill him tonight. Either option (morm of Form) has its risks for us.

On balance, I think we probably ought to kill mormegil. But you are the one most at risk if we do, so it's up to you.

In addition to working out our kill, we need to consider who each of us should target with our suspicions tomorrow. I doubt that either of us can really back down from our suspicions of Farael. In addition to him, I plan on briefing against Kath (quite an easy task) with perhaps a little suspicion of Glirdan thrown in. It is difficult to make a case against Celuien, so perhaps you ought to start taking a look at Nilp.

Finally, we should think about what to do if the village starts to turn against you in light of tar's innocence. I think that you should be able to pull through it. Farael and Kath should be more likely candidates to be lynched. But, although I would rather not be left as a lone Wolf, I may have to consider voting for you, even if it risks you being lynched. I think that I will certainly have to express some strong doubt about you quite early on. Either that or I back off my suspicions of you and start regarding you as more likely innocent, perhaps an unlikely approach for a Wolf to take towards a fellow Wolf at this stage of the game. I just think that my current "some suspicions" approach will look rather obvious if you are lynched. What do you think?

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

I've looked back at Glirdan's, Kath's, and Celuien's posts, and I still don't see any sign that one of them could be the Hunter. So I'm feeling pretty confident that we're right about Morm now.

Which leaves the question of whether he's hunting me. I've been pondering the last thing he said about me:

I noted earlier the possibility that his decrease in suspicion of me could be a set-up to get us to kill him tonight. But that's not the feeling I get from this quote. If he intended such a set-up, I'd expect him to state clearly that he thinks I'm innocent. Here he comes across as quite genuine in thinking that I look more innocent but that he still has some doubts.

So let's set aside the set-up possibility. Supposing that his views are more or less exactly as stated, will he hunt me? The one thing that might cause him to do so is Tar's innocence. I was pretty firm in linking her with Eomer on DAY 4. But on DAY 5, I backed off significantly, saying that Eomer's last-minute antics made Tar look much less suspicious. I even voted for Farael instead. So I'm really not sure to what extent Tar's death will implicate me in Morm's mind.

But another thing to consider is the fact that Mormegil will probably only get more and more dangerous. Suppose we don't kill him tonight. Suppose we lynch Farael tomorrow. He's innocent. Now Mormegil will most certainly suspect me. Getting him lynched (even if we could do it) wouldn't help, because he may very well take one of us with him that way as well.

Can we win without Mormegil's death? I tend to think not. He could declare himself as the Hunter, remember, in which case we'd have a proven innocent - and a very intelligent proven innocent - with very few villagers left.

This is true. On the other hand, killing Morm would almost pre-empt suspicion of you. What I mean is that you'd have a very simple answer to the question "Why are the wolves not killing the loud, unsuspected villagers like SpM?" "Well," you'd say, "the wolves are killing the loud, unsuspected villagers. They've killed Boromir and Mormegil and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm next."

So I suppose I lean toward killing Mormegil as well. I'd like to think it over a little bit more, though.

I agree that Kath will be a good target for you tomorrow, particularly with her vote for Tar. I'm thinking that I'll remove Celuien from my suspect list and possibly go after Glirdan. In writing my analysis of him, I found a few weak points to target. But I guess it's inevitable that Farael will be my top suspect tomorrow.

I would wait at least a little while and try to see which way village opinion of me seems to be going. Of particular interest is Formendacil's opinion, because he's a proven innocent who will be trusted. If it looks like a storm is brewing against me, then you could start to ramp up your suspicion. But if not (if, for instance, things are more focused on Farael), it might be a good idea to go the other way - to back off a little with your suspicion of me.

Originally Posted by Wolfman Sauce

I think that morm will still have reservations about targetting you (or me, for that matter) as the three of us were the only ones who really contributed much of substance today. It may be that he will not want to risk the village losing your valuable input as well as his in one blow.

It really all comes down to how much he is likely to suspect you and how much he suspects others. As you say, you backed off your suspicions of tar during the Day, and voted for Farael who, for all he knows, is a Wolf.

Indeed, his most likely alternative target, I think, is Farael. He voted for Farael, so he was obviously unimpressed with the self-vote. Tar and Farael were most villagers' main suspects during the Day. With tar proven innocent, the obvious choice is surely Farael. Of course, if morm does Hunt Farael and takes him down with him, you will attract a fair amount of suspicion the next Day, but I am sure that you can deal with that.

His other possible target is Kath, given that he noted her vote for tar as curious at the end of the Day. She does look suspicious.

On balance, I think he will go for Farael, but it's still a risk, obviously. I reckon that morm will be expecting to be attacked tonight, so he will choose his kill very carefully.

Originally Posted by The Analytical Wolf

Some further thoughts.

I think that we do have a reasonable chance of winning without killing mormegil tonight, but this would most likely involve you standing as a sacrifice, with me going strongly against you, on Day 6 or 7. That would allow me to kill mormegil the Night after your death with minimum risk and probably gain me enough credibility to take the win on Day 8 (some time next Monday).

If, however, we kill mormegil tonight, we could be making it much easier or much more difficult for ourselves, depending on who he takes with him.

If he takes Farael with him, we have a chance of winning with both of us surviving and in a shorter time (on Day 7), depending upon how the remaining villagers react to you following the deaths of tar, mormegil and Farael.

If, however, morm takes you with him, the whole game becomes rather more difficult to win, particularly as this carries with it the most chance of the village (Formendacil and Farael particularly) turning on me.

Originally Posted by Wolfagast the Brown

I've been pondering.

Leaving Mormegil alive tonight and performing a wolf sacrifice on DAY 6 or 7 is an attractive possibility. I would envision things going more or less like this:

- Form dies tonight.
- I get lynched tomorrow
- Mormegil dies the next night, taking someone (maybe Kath?) with him
- That leaves you and four innocents on DAY 7

You'd be fairly secure after getting both me and Eomer lynched, and it would probably come down to you vs. two innocents on DAY 8.

On the other hand, if we kill Mormegil tonight and he doesn't happen to be hunting me, it'll be the two of us versus five innocents tomorrow. There's a fair chance I'd be lynched on DAY 6, which would again leave you and four innocents on DAY 7.

Of course, the best case scenario would be that we kill Mormegil tonight, he kills, say, Farael, and I manage to survive DAY 6 (which is possible, given that Kath looks rather suspicious). Then it would be the two of us versus three innocents on DAY 7, and we'd be virtually certain to win.

And last of all there's the worst case scenario - we kill Mormegil and he takes me with him. Then it would be you against six innocents on DAY 6. In all likelihood, this would devolve to you versus four innocents on DAY 7, the only difference from the previous scenarios being that you would not have the extra security of having lynched me.

I'm really quite torn. My usual instinct is to play it safe, but I'm very tempted to take the gamble.

Originally Posted by Viscount Kettle the Wolfish

That pretty much mirrors my thinking.

I am up for the gamble, but given that you are the one most at risk, it's your call.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

All right, I'm up for the gamble as well. Let's kill Mormegil.

If I die tonight, good luck to you!

Originally Posted by Wolfman Sauce

Mormegil it is then. I shall PM Shemod.

If you die tonight, I am going to have a very hard time bringing the game home. But I will do my best.

I sincerely hope that you do not.

If you do, my condolences.

Apologies for our loquacity - though what I've posted has been significantly trimmed down, honestly!