The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum


Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page

Go Back   The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum > Middle-Earth Fun and Games > Middle-earth Mirth
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-09-2006, 10:52 AM   #1
Aiwendil
Late Istar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,224
Aiwendil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Aiwendil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Night 3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
Fellow canines -

Well, with two rather intense DAYS of discussion done with, I think we are in pretty good shape.

First of all, we've had far more luck than we've any right to. I refer, of course, to Holbytlass.

There seems to have been a sudden tendency to suspect me toward the end of the DAY. Farael's arguments still seem pretty weak to me. He really is taking what I say out of context and misconstruing me. Form is more worrisome, though he does admit that his suspicion is probably due to my attacks on him. If I can justify those attacks on DAY 3, I think he may ease up on me, or at least take me out of the prime suspect slot. LMP suddenly suspects me at the end of the DAY, after having said earlier that I looked innocent. I think that this can probably be played against him as a move rather similar to his sudden attack on Boromir on DAY 1. I'm in a decent position to make that accusation, considering my suspicion of the Boromir-voting crowd so far. SPM is also in a decent position to plant that idea, given his vote for LMP, but it might be risky for him to come to my defense.

It has occurred to me - and this idea may sound silly - that we might benefit from a code word or two. The particular thought I had went like this. At the moment, it's hard to guess whether I (or perhaps Eomer) will be a serious candidate for lynching tomorrow. We won't know until some way into DAY 3. This makes it hard for us to plan a wolf sacrifice, since we won't know until sometime during the DAY whether such a sacrifice is called for. It would be helpful, then, if I had some way of saying, during the DAY, "Okay, it looks like I'm done for, go ahead and accuse/vote for me" or "I think I can pull out of this; don't add to the fire". So it might be useful to come up with a word - one uncommon enough that we wouldn't use it accidentally, but not so outlandish as to raise eyebrows - as a signal for one of those messages.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf
To my fellow Wolves, greetings

A day of mixed fortunes. It started off excellently, obviously. Holby being the Seer was an amazing stroke of luck and one that I did not expect. The first half of the Day went well enough with the vocal squad (mormegil, lmp, Boro, Anguirel and others) all getting mired down in suspecting each other. However, it was somewhat soured towards the end with the increasingly voiced suspicions of Aiwendil and, to a lesser degree, Eomer.

And what a noisy village! I was quite busy at work today and really had little chance to catch up until near the end of the day.

I currently plan on going pretty strongly against lmp tomorrow. He looks rather suspicious right now and there may just be enough votes there to get him lynched. I also think that there is a chance that he's a Gifted (Ranger/Hunter). I'll probably keep up my "lmp guilty = mormegil innocent" and vice versa ruse. There is a good case to be made against mormegil on his voting record.

As for possible kills, I am considering the following possibilities:

Nilpaurion Felagund - Pros: Not suspected by anyone; I have declared him all but innocent; looks bad for Anguirel and a few others (including Garin and lmp); he doesn't suspect any of us. Cons: I think that he will continue to view me as innocent; a potential lmp voter.

Tar-ancalime - Pros: Could look bad for Garin and lmp; possible False Seer (Day 1 vote for Eomer). Cons: Aiwendil suspected her.

Farael - Pros: He's a pain in the butt ( ); no one seems to suspect him. Cons: Probably not Gifted; could look bad for Aiwendil (but could be viewed as a frame up); would stymie my tenative Day 3 strategy.

Anguirel - Pros: He's an astute guy, could be a Ranger/Hunter (with Celuin or Glirdan, both of whom he has defended). Cons: He seems to believe in my innocence (but that could change); his vote for Lhuna looks suspicious.

Kath - Pros: Leaves hardly any trail; suspicion in her did not materialise (and probably won't to any great degree tomorrow); she's unlikely to whip up much suspicion of our foes. Cons: She is unlikely to be Gifted - otherwise I'm sure that she would be contributing more.

Boromir88 - Pros: Makes Garin and the other Day 1 Boro voters look bad; he could be dangerous. Cons: he seems to be on my side - for now; could look bad for Aiwendil.

On balance, I think that we should go for Kath, even though she is unlikely to turn out Gifted. The way things have been going, we want to keep as many vocal villagers alive as possible, because they are eminently capable of turning (or being turned) on each other and it gives us a bit of cover (being fairly vocal ourselves).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
It has occurred to me - and this idea may sound silly - that we might benefit from a code word or two.
Are we allowed to do that? If so, any suggestions. Maybe a common Werewolf-type phrase, but none of us would use it unless we thought we were in serious danger of being lynched? The sort of thing someone might say when under severe pressure?

One thing, though. We haven't had much opportunity to cast Wolf-on-Wolf votes yet. And I think that we should continue to avoid them unless we are going for a Wolf sacrifice. A safe (ie non-sacrifical) Wolf-on-Wolf vote will probably end up looking rather obvious as and when one of those involved is lynched and found to be a Wolf. Most players are pretty alive to that sort of thing now, as it has become a regular part of the Werewolves's strategy. In fact, it will probably be expected. So I think that we should avoid it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
I'm going to go through the villagers one by one with thoughts on them, particularly with respect to whether they would make good candidates for tonight.

Farael: His death would result in all the usual frame-up/double bluff discussion. But I think he may actually be of more use alive. His attacks are flimsy and they give me a chance to come off as an exasperated innocent.

Mormegil: He hasn't come under serious suspicion yet. Possible interesting repurcussions for the others who, like him, voted for Lhuna. But as SPM said before DAY 1, it's probably a good idea to let some of the other "loudmouths" survive for a while (though he has been quieter this game).

Dancing Spawn: Her death would have repurcussions for Eomer not unlike those for me if Farael were killed. Probably not worth it at this point.

Glirdan: A possibility for tonight. There was some suspicion of him earlier, but it seems to have died off. The one complication is his vote for Lhunardawen, which might - 1. bring suspicion on him tomorrow; 2. have people looking for some kind of bluff with regard to the other Lhuna-voters, including Eomer.

Nilpaurion: Another possibility, though I expect he still trusts SPM based on the anagrams. His faith in them may have lessened since Mormegil and I followed suit, though. His votes were for Farael and Anguirel, so I don't think any of us would be implicated by his death.

Tar-ancalime: She voted for Garin today, meaning that she may fall under some suspicion tomorrow. Also, killing her would only bring more attention to the other Garin-voters, including me.

Formendacil: His name has come up a few times but it looks unlikely that he'll be lynched. Comments about Mormegil regarding respected loudmouths apply to him as well, to some extent. I would consider him a strong candidate if not for his vote for me, which leads into the frame-up/double bluff discussion.

LMP: Definitely keep him alive. I think that a good case can be made against him tomorrow. Plus, his defensive rants are quite amusing.

Kath: An interesting one. She's come under just about no suspicion so far and didn't even vote today - which would seem to make her an ideal candidate. But the fact that she has been so quiet and almost entirely absent from DAY 2 may make her a suspect tomorrow.

Anguirel: Another Lhuna-voter. He doesn't seem likely to be lynched any time soon, but he may come under heavier attack tomorrow.

Garin: Keep him alive. There's still a fair amount of suspicion of him. Plus, I voted for him.

Celuien: Under some suspicion; doesn't appear to be onto us. Keep her alive.

Boromir88: Could be useful as an instrument to wield against LMP tomorrow. And there's also still a decent amount of suspicion of him.

So to me, the best candidates for toNIGHT look to be Kath, Glirdan, and Nilpaurion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf
The thing is, I need to move on from just saying that I am keeping an eye on you. That too will look suspicious if you are lynched.
It occurs to me that we might try the following. SPM could say that I look like I'm playing my normal game and perhaps find fault in Farael's logic. This looks like a good move since it does seem fairly natural. I do think that I'm playing something like my normal game (whatever that might mean, considering I've only once survived longer than a day); and Farael's attacks are indeed flimsy. While appreciating your vote of confidence, I would then make a speculative case against you - along the lines of "It seems to me that one person has so far managed to avoid close scrutiny - SPM. Could he be a very clever wolf?" And so forth.

The advantage here would be that we each get to move beyond the safe "I'm keeping an eye on him" but we do so in a way that runs the least risk of getting one of us killed. We'd both be going against the grain, so to speak - you speaking in favor of my innocence while I'm under suspicion and me speaking against you at a time when that suspicion is unlikely to ignite anything serious.

As for Eomer - I think that it will work to our advantage that you have been a bit quieter than both of us. It's easier to avoid taking a clear-cut position with regard to you. If you do start to come under scrutiny tomorrow, I expect I'll avoid saying much about you yourself but rather warn that "there are others who are much more suspicious".

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf
Are we allowed to do that?
It hadn't occurred to me that we might not be. I don't see why we wouldn't; it seems to me to be rather in the spirit of the game. But if either of you think it might not be wholly legit, then we can forget it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
It occurs to me that we might try the following. SPM could say that I look like I'm playing my normal game and perhaps find fault in Farael's logic.
I am pretty much set on this course of action now. If I have time, I am going to do a few analyses, focussing on those who attracted more than one vote yesterday. This will enable me to look more closely at lmp and to develop my opinion on you. I am confident that, when I go through your posts, I will be able to end up saying that there is very little there that looks suspicious. That will also enable me to examine Farael’s case in more detail, and it should be easy to pick holes in that. I do think that there is scope to bring Farael into the spotlight tomorrow. His focussing on just one villager can be made to look very Wolfish.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
While appreciating your vote of confidence, I would then make a speculative case against you - along the lines of "It seems to me that one person has so far managed to avoid close scrutiny - SPM. Could he be a very clever wolf?"
While I am loathe to risk tainting my almost spotless record so far ( ), I think that others will be taking a similar look at me tomorrow. So it would be natural for you to do so. Please feel free to make the usual accusation that I might be manipulating village opinion against innocents. I have a standard response to that.

As for my approach to Eomer, I will play it by ear. Your relative quietness has worked well so far, as it is difficult to say much about you. I may try the tack of challenging one or two of your statements if anything occurs to me, provided that you are OK with that.

Possible Gifteds

The following are possible hints that I picked up on:

As I mentioned before, Anguirel defended Celuin and Glirdan quite early on, when there wasn’t much to go on (#52 and #45).

Celuin has defended Farael two days running (#75 and #163).

Garin’s “Only a fool would vote to lynch me” (#137) could be a bluff or he could be the False Seer. He has seems to be quite preoccupied with the False Seer role.

At the end of his delightful rant (#135), littlemanpoet responded to morm’s:
Quote:
… obviously he's not the seer and I don't believe that he's another gifted. I really think his behavior is indicative of a wolf”
with:
Quote:
Hah! haha! You make me laugh. Blind fool.
A possible hint by lmp that he’s a Gifted? If so, it’s very subtle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Mormegil: He hasn't come under serious suspicion yet
I think that he will start to come under serious scrutiny tomorrow, given his Lhuna vote. We need to keep a pool of respected “loudmouths” alive for a while to deflect suspicion of us for still being alive. I also like the “littlemanpoet – mormegil” tension since, if one gets lynched, I am sure the other can be portrayed as very Wolfish.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Dancing Spawn: Her death would have repurcussions for Eomer not unlike those for me if Farael were killed. Probably not worth it at this point.
Agreed, although we need to try to encourage a bit more suspicion of her. I might look into doing this as I traditionally suspect dancing spawn when she looks innocent – it goes back to the game that I modded, where she was an excellent and almost entirely unsuspected Wolf. Eomer is in a position to brief against her too, as long as it doesn’t look too much like a reaction against her vote for him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Glirdan: A possibility for tonight
His votes are explicable by reference to his real life commitments and I genuinely think they look like unlikely Wolf votes, so I doubt that he will come under much suspicion. The Lhuna voters are bound to be under scrutiny tomorrow, so I am not sure that killing Glirdan would make much difference on that score. I would like to reduce my “possible innocent” list, so a definite possibility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Nilpaurion: Another possibility, though I expect he still trusts SPM based on the anagrams.
Yes, I think that he will still trust me. Towards the end of the day, however, I said that I was pretty certain of Nilp’s innocence. His death might therefore be construed as a Wolfish SpM’s attempt to make himself look innocent. Also, he’s a potential lmp voter (and he votes early). I would prefer not to kill Nilp.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Kath: An interesting one.
My initial preferred choice. However, on further consideration, I am not so sure. Holby was quiet. Kath is very quiet. If we kill all the quiet ones, it points to some noisy Wolves.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Anguirel: Another Lhuna-voter.
I actually think that Anguirel may be a good candidate for tonight’s repast. The longer he says alive, the more likely I think he is to spot one of us. There’s not much to link him with any of us and he is a possible (and dangerous) Gifted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Boromir88: Could be useful as an instrument to wield against LMP tomorrow.
I am sorely tempted to kill him. But I agree that he is too valuable for now as a potential weapon against lmp.

I would suggest keeping Kath and Nilp alive for now, but would add Anguirel to the list.

Glirdan is very tempting because, as I said, I would like to reduce my “probable innocent” list before adding Aiwendil to it. Glirdan is, however, a potential lmp voter. So far, he has always voted early for the person looking most suspicious at the beginning of the day. That said, as it’s a Saturday, he may be able to vote later on day 3.

I wonder whether the better choice might be Anguirel because he is a respected and experienced player and his death makes it look a little less suspicious that the three of us are still around. At the same time, we still have enough other experienced “loudmouths” for cover. If he’s the Hunter, now would be a good time to kill him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
Greetings comrades!

Holby the Seer, ho ho ho....

Anyway, my pick for tonight's attack was Nilpaurion Felagund, because no-one suspects him (he's also not trying to get lynched—is that in any way weird? Maybe he's a gifted...) however SPM gives good reasons to keep him alive: Nilp and SPM have established a little friendship, and any response SPM makes to Nilp's death could look a bit suspicious—SPM will be linked somehow, someway.

I would prefer to keep Kath alive: I think her quietness is more severe than Holbytlass's, and I think it can definitely be used against her.

An attack on Glirdan would be fine by me. I would have no problems in taking out either Anguirel or Formendacil either. Farael, Dancing Spawn, LMP, Boromir, Mormegil, should all stay definitely.

As to Dancing Spawn's critique of me, I was nervous that I defended myself a bit too vigourously. I will certainly not start a fight with her today; but I will meet her challenge. My defence would have been identical had I been innocent: I don't think the case against me is strong at all.

SPM, perhaps it would be a good idea if you put a bit of suspicion on me. I would urge you to pretty much regurgitate what Spawn said about me, because I have pretty convincing answers to everything she said. On the end of Day 3 you could say something about me like 'Spawn could be right: maybe there is more to Eomer than meets the eye; but I think there are other characters worthy of more suspicion in this village.'

I would be against a wolf-sacrifice, and this is why. There is already suspicion against me and Aiwendil. If SPM were to jump in now with a vote for, say, Aiwendil and Aiwendil is hanged and found to be guilty, that would by no means grant SPM immunity. The village would be kinder to Farael and Morm (I think) because they got there first. Also, the wolf-sacrifice is well-known now. Back in the days of Werewolf VII, when a certain victorious wolf ruthlessly sacrificed his fellows Kitanna and Orominuialwen it was new and shocking; but folks are wise to it now; and when (if) the first wolf dies, we should use this fear and turn it against the innocent villager who discovered our identity (at this stage, likely candidates for this attack would be Farael or Spawn).

Another point about tonight's attack: I think Glirdan will be easier for us to manipulate than Anguirel or Formendacil. Should that count against killing him?
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I am now rather regretting my little comment towards the end of the day concerning my belief in his [Nilp's] innocence. His death tonight might look good for me if he is the Hunter or the Ranger. But I tend to think him an Ord, as his anagram declares.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
Should that count against killing him?
I think that it might. Glirdan can be quite the flip-flopper, while Anguirel is a more difficult proposition.

Aiwendil, any objection to taking out Anguirel?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
I agree with Eomer that Anguirel is probably a better target for toNIGHT than Glirdan. I'll PM Shemod as well later.

About wolf sacrifices: I agree that they're probably not of much use to us now. I don't think that they've completely lost their power since the exploits of you famous ancestor, though, Eomer. In particular, I recall that in Alcarillo's game, wolvish Formendacil got a free pass for just about the entire game after his early vote for fellow wolf Spawn. Seems to me the key is that the sacrificial vote must appear decisive. But, anyway, I agree that it's probably not worth considering a sacrifice at this point.

Well, that's about it, I guess. If I don't PM again before DAYbreak, good luck to us!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
I have what I believe is a good case against Spawn. Basically, I will argue that she is suspecting me (and voted for me, no less) on such-and-such grounds: grounds that she herself is treading. She's doing pretty much what she's angry that I'm doing. So I'm not going to attack her strongly, but I will certainly meet her challenge and trust that the other innocents will flock to my banner.

So SPM, you must post some suspicion against me in the first half of the day. I will only be able to get onto the internet about early afternoon tomorrow. At that time I hope to see another post by Spawn against me, and one from you saying that Spawn has made good points. Then I will come in, destroy (hopefully!) Spawn's argument, question her motives, then you will be left with no option but to admit that my response was a good 'un. Again, along the lines of 'Eomer still looks pretty suspicious, but my attention is given to others right now.' And talk about LMP again, probably.

Aiwendil, I'm hoping to get a little bit of response to my Farael question. Hopefully, we can drum up some support for you against Farael. I don't think it would hurt to say that he's hiding in his own boldness and stubbornness.

Last edited by Aiwendil; 03-09-2006 at 11:29 AM.
Aiwendil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2006, 11:00 AM   #2
Aiwendil
Late Istar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,224
Aiwendil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Aiwendil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Night 4
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
Hello comrades!

As thrilling as that was, I must say I'm becoming more pessimistic about our chances of winning. It looks like Aiwendil and I will both be lynched, quite possibly in the next two days.

Still, we have a kill to work out. I suspected Spawn and Nilp are the Guardian and Hunter. In a post earlier today Spawn simply declared 'Nilp is innocent'. Any thoughts?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
What a day!

So, Eomer and I have both come under some heavy attacks. The three who voted for me were Farael, Boromir, and Form. Of those three, I'd say only Farael is nearly certain to vote for me again tomorrow. Formendacil has not offered much in the way of a case against me. I expect I might be able to persuade him to give me the benefit of the doubt. Boromir I'm not sure about.

So I think that I can probably survive DAY 4. The attacks against Eomer worry me more. I tried to build on the similarities between Eomer's "shrill" defense and the similar defense offered by LMP earlier to suggest Eomer's innocence, but I don't think anyone bought it. Nonetheless, it looks to me like as decent a strategy as any. But I fear that Eomer may be toast no matter what is said in his defense tomorrow.

I think that our choice for a kill toNIGHT is going to hinge critically upon our intended strategy for tomorrow. It seems to me that this is one case where it might be an effective tactic to take out one of those who looks likely to vote for me or Eomer tomorrow. I'm thinking mainly of those who voted for us other than Farael and Spawn. So first of all, we need to decide whether it's worth doing something as bold as that or whether it would be better to take it for granted that one of us will die tomorrow and try to set things up as nicely as possible for the survivors.

Another option, bolder and perhaps quite foolhardy, would be to take out either Farael or Spawn. It would, obviously, get people into the frame-up/double bluff debate. The obvious downside to such a move - that it puts either me or Eomer right in the spotlight - is somewhat moot now, since we'll be in the spotlight in any case. If we felt more or less sure that, say, Eomer was going to die tomorrow, it would probably be worth killing Spawn, simply because that would throw another (very unpredictable) variable into the mix and would have a chance of changing a few minds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf
What a day indeed!

Eomer, I am afraid to say that you are looking in quite bad shape. I thought at one point that you would be lynched today. Not as a result of anyhing that you said or did. I thought that you handled it very well. I am not really sure where all that came from, as dancing spawn's case, however accurate, is not that great. I wonder whether she is a Gifted and her ally is one of those supporting her. Mormegil, perhaps? I am sorry if my own case against you contributed. I was following the strategy we agreed last night of echoing spawn's case. And then lmp's outburst happened. I tried to back off a bit at the end of the day and support your case against spawn, but I had to be careful. Still, you only received two votes out of a possible 13, so it's not certain that you will be lynched tomorrow.

Aiwendil, I actually think that you look in altogether better shape. Farael did not vote, so you only received 2 votes - from Formendacil and Boro. Form's was based on his previous day's vote, as he was otherwise indisposed for most of the day, so didn't have a chance to update his thinking. I think that I have a good rapport with Boromir88, so might be able to persuade him away from you. Anyway, I intend continuing to support you. There is really very little evidence against you.

Surprisingly, I am in great shape. I don't really quite know why. I have been trying to behave as I would an innocent, which normally brings me under severe suspicion by now. And I thought that my cynical attitude to lmp might cause some bad feeling against me. Funnily enough, the whole episode with him probably worked in my favour, as I was able to walk away from my case against him much more easily than if he had been lynched and shown to be innocent. And I really think that your briefing against me helped, Aiwendil, as it helped me get that whole "why is he still here?" thing out of the way.

So who should we kill today?

Dancing spawn is a definite possibility. It could well mean the end of Eomer tomorrow, though, so Aiwendil and I would need to consider how we should react. We could either go against Eomer ourselves or take the position that it looked like overly risky behaviour for a Wolfish Eomer to kill spawn. It would be a delicate balance, and I think that a lot of people would be prepared to believe that Eomer, as a Wolf, would be bold.

Eomer raised the possibility of Nilp and dancing spawn being the Ranger and Hunter. It's possible that Nilp is a Gifted, although that would mean he was lying in his anagram (for shame ). And I am not sure that dancing spawn would have been so bold to have declared her fellow Gifted's innocence in the way that she did. I do, however, believe that spawn could be a Gifted. Along with one of the others who supported her case against Eomer. Which points to mormegil.

Problem 1. If spawn is the Hunter, she will undoubtedly kill Eomer tonight, which would put us a Wolf down going into tomorrow and possibly two Wolves down coming out of it.

Problem 2. If spawn is not Gifted, she seems to me to be a prime candidate for Ranger protection. We don't want to waste a kill if we can possibly avoid it.

Any other possibilities? I don't want to kill Farael, as I don't think that you are in that serious a position, Aiwendil. Besides, he may well start looking suspicious for his plan to lynch lmp and for his non-vote (it could be made to look like lmp had put a spanner in his plans). And Formendacil and Boromir88 are out for the same reason. Kath and Celuin are possibilities. But I think that I would rather keep them. Tar-ancalime might be worth considering. It might reflect badly on spawn, and possibly relieve some of the pressure on Eomer.

So, Glirdan, Nilp, tar-ancalime or spawn?

The main question, I suppose, is to kill spawn or not to kill spawn.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
I'd love to kill Spawn. There's a good chance the Guardian protected Spawn last night because that's when she really started going after me. Even if he/she didn't it's quite possible that he/she will leave Spawn well alone, so obviously involved in the discussion as she is. Of course, she could be the Guardian herself.

It would be a risk, certainly a risk; but because no wolf has been caught yet, this game has been too hard to predict Guardian activity.

We need to start killing the Hunter, the Guardian, and the False Seer. We can't have these people ready to declare themselves at the end of the game.

If Spawn is the Hunter then it would be worth losing me to take her out. I will be lynched sooner or later regardless.

I also agree that Farael will look quite bad today, and this might be the best opportunity to go on the attack. How do you think such an attack could be structured?

Tar-Ancalime's a strange one. She was under quite a lot of pressure near the start of the game but it has disappeared somewhat.

So, tentatively, Spawn is my choice for the attack. And don't discount my chances of avoiding the noose tomorrow, even if we get her!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolfy Sauce
An attack on Farael should not be too difficult to pursue. We have laid the groundwork already. He suggested lynching littlemanpoet to get at Aiwendil. I think that he can still be portrayed as a Wolf who is limiting his attacks to a few innocents. He probably will go back to attacking Aiwendil tomorrow, which could work to Aiwendil's advantage. There are still quite a few who believe you likely to be innocent.

I agree that you should go against mormegil tomorrow, Eomer. His approach to littlemanpoet can be viewed as "flip-flopping" (but don't use that word). I was planning on attacking him myself, but I may lay off him a bit. I'll see how things go.

On further consideration, I think that we should not attack tar-ancalime tonight. Suspicion of her was beginning to rise towards the end of the day and she may well come under attack tomorrow, particularly if we kill spawn.

And the more that I think about it, the more I agree that we should kill spawn. I have a feeling that she is a Gifted and, even if she is not, she is dangerous.

I am not sure yet what strategy I will adopt. It will seem strange not to look at the Garin voters, which will involve looking at you both. But, given the way things went yesterday, the voting record can be made to look unreliable. And Garin was definately looking suspicious, so your votes for him do not look unduly strange.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
As for the proposed candidates for tonight's kill:

Glirdan is a possibility. He's not under much suspicion and his death wouldn't leave an obvious trail. I'd say that if we don't kill Spawn, we should kill Glirdan.

Nilpaurion - Rather like Glirdan. I'd prefer Glirdan on the off chance that he's Gifted, though (I rather doubt that a Gifted Nilp would lie in an anagram).

Tar-Ancalime - I agree that suspicion of her seems to be on the rise again. I also don't think that her death would put that much pressure on Spawn.

Spawn - The big decision, obviously. If Eomer is willing to go for it, killing her would at least make things interesting tomorrow. Much as I fear she might be the Hunter and that we might go into DAY 4 down a wolf, it also seems to me that if she is the Hunter, she's likely to continue to hunt Eomer. Which would make now as good a time as ever.

So Spawn looks like the best choice for tonight to me as well.

The one further thing we have to decide is how SPM and I should react to the inevitable Eomer situation tomorrow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf
Given what I said about Eomer yesterday, and particularly if we kill spawn tonight, I think that I am going to have to maintain my suspicions of him. I will make the usual point about it looking very risky for a Wolfish Eomer to kill spawn. But I cannot back down from my suspicions on that basis alone. Looking back, I actually wish I had voted for you yesterday, Eomer, as you only received 2 votes, whereas Garin received 4. However, at the time I voted it looked quite possible that you would get more than 2 votes. So, for my part, I will maintain my suspicions of Eomer. If it looks likely, from what people are saying, I may even put in an early vote for you to try and gain some credit if you are lynched, if that's OK with you.

As for you Aiwendil, I think that you are in a much better position to try to counter the inevitable suspicion of Eomer. However, it is up to you, as you could be left in a dangerous position if he is lynched. Perhaps best to play it by ear and see if there are any others who are not convinced of Eomer's likely guilt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sauce Wolf
If we think that he is quite likely to be lynched, I wonder whether it might be worth Eomer claiming to be the False Seer? If it comes off, we may be able to get the real False Seer lynched and at the very least we would identify him/her as a kill for tomorrow night (and thereby avoid him/her becoming a known innocent later in the game). Or might it look too transparent?

In any event, it would have to be pre-emptive to look at all credible, ie before the False Seer declares (unless the False Seer declares in a situation where he/she is likely to be lynched).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
Anyway, I am very happy to attack Spawn tonight. Even if she is the Hunter, I will remain her target for the whole game, probably. And we can't have the two gifteds and the false Seer hanging around.

The option of me claiming to be the False Seer is intriguing. I think it might be worthwhile. But I'll have to play it by ear.

If I die soon, here's something you should make the most of. It's famously a bad idea for the wolves to defend each other within the game, so much so that my defences could tell quite the story once I'm gone. You may notice that I have given my trust to both of you, Aiwendil and SPM. You should play this for what it's worth. Say that a wolf wouldn't be so obvious to trust his fellow wolves, and that wolf-Eomer was probably trying to set you up (more so SPM because Aiwendil is already under some pressure).

And about tomorrow, if we do manage to kill Spawn and I'm still alive: I'd appreciate it, even though you may have to vote for me, if you accept that my defence against Spawn's accusations is very fair. You never know: that could make Formendacil or Kath or whoever sympathise with me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
Spawn 'tis.

You know, I think that Eomer claiming to be the False Seer is a great idea - if his death looks certain. If it does, I can see no downside to the claim. Yes, it would be transparent, but that would be quite irrelevant if Eomer's dead in any case.

So my advice, Eomer, would be that you wait and see how likely you are to be lynched. If you think don't think you can pull out of it, "come forward" as the False Seer. You could have some fun making up false dreams too . . .

I agree that I'm in a good position to defend Eomer tomorrow. But I think I'll argue that Spawn's accusations are rather specious, rather than trying to build up a case for your innocence in and of itself.

I've been trying to guess who, besides me and Eomer, is likely to emerge as a lynch-candidate tomorrow. We seem to be at a stage where just about everyone is under some vague suspicion but no one has emerged as a clear favorite. I'm interested in trying to figure this out because, while I'd like to cast a vote that might save Eomer, I don't want to look like I'm "bandwagoning". So my hope is that if I pick my target correctly early tomorrow, I can remain fairly consistent all day.

A final thing to consider is how we ought to react if Spawn is indeed the Hunter and takes Eomer down with her tonight. In such a case, we may very well be able to get things rolling against Tar-ancalime on the basis of her DAY 1 "random" vote for him.

Last edited by Aiwendil; 03-09-2006 at 11:27 AM.
Aiwendil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2006, 11:07 AM   #3
Aiwendil
Late Istar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,224
Aiwendil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Aiwendil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Night 5
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
The good news is that suspicion of me has dwindled and you remain in excellent shape. Also, I think the groundwork has been laid for Tar to be lynched tomorrow, and maybe Farael after that. I think, if I may say so, that I played up the idea of a Tar-Eomer connection effectively. At any rate, Mormegil has certainly bought it and Boromir may have as well. Indeed, Mormegil agreed with my suggestion that the trio is Eomer, Tar, and Farael.

Farael will no doubt take Eomer's guilt as evidence that I'm a wolf, and will point out my defense of him tomorrow. But at this point, I don't expect that many will buy it. Despite my vote for Tar, I did make a pretty strong point toDAY of claiming that I thought both Tar and Eomer were wolves. I think I can use this to counter any charges that I was trying to save Eomer.

I am rather unsure about whom to kill toNIGHT. Earlier, I was rather inclined to kill either Boromir, Mormegil, or Formendacil. My reasoning was that 1. I think it's likely that either Boromir or mormegil (or both) is Gifted; 2. YesterDAY it looked like Formendacil and Boromir might fall in line with Farael and go after me; 3. Formendacil is a known innocent.

However, those options look less and less appealing to me. I'm no longer in imminent danger of being lynched (I think), so taking out Form or Boromir probably isn't as worthwhile. And since Boromir and Mormegil seem to be highly suspicious of Tar, they could be useful tomorrow. Also, I suppose the Ranger will protect Formendacil toNIGHT.

I guess the real choice is which group to choose someone from: Boromir, Mormegil, Formendacil or Kath, Celuien, Glirdan, Nilpaurion. Do we try to kill a Gifted and risk damaging the case against Tar and Farael, or do we play it safe?

I imagine that if either Mormegil or Boromir is the Hunter, there's a good chance we could take out two innocents in one stroke toNIGHT.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wolfman Sauce
My surviving comrade

I think that we are both in great shape. Me, obviously, for my vote for Eomer and the fact that (astoundingly to me) most people still seem inclined to trust me. And you are looking a lot better than you were a day ago. I think that you can pass off your vote for tar as you were not the only one to vote for her and she remains under suspicion. You did a great job of linking her with Eomer, and that idea was reinforced in subsequent posts. The danger for you will arise as and when tar is lynched and found to be innocent. Farael will continue to be a thorn in your side, and will no doubt bring up your defence of Eomer tomorrow, but he backed off from his accusations of you considerably towards the end of the day. And it looks like he is going to be under a lot of suspicion tomorrow, anyway.

So, who to kill? Or, perhaps it is better to consider first who not to kill.

Obviously, we do not want to kill tar. And I think that we should leave Formendacil alone too. The Ranger may not protect him tonight (thinking that we would assume him to be protected), but I think that he or she is more likely to do so than not. Others who will come under suspicion tomorrow are Farael (for his erratic behaviour and for his no vote), Kath (for her tar vote and for her quietness) and Glirdan (for not turning up and for not voting). So I think that we should leave all of them alone.

Which leaves Celuien, Nilp, Boromir and mormegil.

Celuien: She looks like she was duped by Eomer into voting for tar yesterday. But that could be made to look like Wolfish interplay. She is quiet and non-committal, which can be made to look suspicious. And she is, I think, relatively trusting of the two of us.

Nilp: Voted first for Eomer, and so is likely to be thought innocent. However, I think that makes me look good for trusting him. And I think that he will continue to trust me in return. He also said that, if Eomer turned out to be a Wolf, Boro would look bad. Although Boro voted for Eomer, Nilp could view that as a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Boromir88: A possible choice for tonight's kill. I have said that I think him innocent, so the proof of that may reflect in my favour. However, he may come under suspicion tomorrow. There is Nilp's comment about the consequences of Eomer being a Wolf, and tar voted for him. It is quite possible that his vote for Eomer will be seen as a Wolf sacrifice, given that he said earlier that he was going to vote for tar (I will not be bringing that up though, as it may lead people to look at my vote).

Mormegil: Tentatively, my choice for our kill tonight. After his pursuit of Eomer, he is likely to be thought innocent. Also, I actually think that his death may heighten suspicion of tar and Farael, as people have seen that the Wolves are prepared to double-bluff with their kills. Some may say that the Wolves would not attmept it two nights running, but that in some ways makes it look even more Wolfish (ie the Wolves can be portrayed as banking on the villagers thinking that). However, my main reason for wanting to kill mormegil is this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by mormegil in post #388
Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them.
Is that a Hunter hint? Why would mormegil hint at being the Hunter? Quite possibly because he thinks that he has identified the other two Werewolves, and he doesn't think that they will dare kill him. If he is the Hunter, the Ranger won't protect him, obviously. And if he is genuine in his suspicions of Farael and tar, we have the opportunity, as you say, of taking out two innocents in one night. Moreover, if mormegil is the Hunter, we may well be able to work out from what he has said, and from what others have said about him, who the Ranger is.

My only reservation, if he is the Hunter, is that he is bluffing with his stated suspects. Even if he is, he will most likely take out another innocent. I really don't think that he suspects me, especially after my Eomer vote, so the only danger is that he secretly suspects you and will target you tonight.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
I'm certainly leaning toward killing either Mormegil or Boromir toNIGHT. I have a feeling that one or both of them is Gifted - though I'm not entirely sure what gives me that impression.

The drawback I see to killing one of them is that we would probably be eliminating our own supporters in the case against tar and Farael. Still, it would be worth it if we could take out a Gifted. I tend to agree with you, then, that it should be Mormegil (who will looks less suspicious than Boromir tomorrow).

Before we finalize it, though, I'm going to have a look through both Boromir's and Mormegil's posts for possible hints.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wolfpan Man
My fiendish friend

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Before we finalize it, though, I'm going to have a look through both Boromir's and Mormegil's posts for possible hints.
I have done the same, as four pairs of Wolfish eyes are better than two. I came up with the following:

Morm quotes:
While I possess great physical prowess and dexterity it's my mind that has won me many a battle. I am able to out think my opponent and that, my friends, will be your greatest asset ... (#11)
So I made a preemptive strike. (#169)
Anyway, notice in this post how Garin begins to attack LMP but backs off and twists it to continue his assault on Boromir, who as many others feel seems more or less innocent. (#260)
Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them. (#388)

Boro quotes:
Note that most of his posts bear the White Tree symbol.
mormegil: seems pretty innocent. I'll wait for him to conjure up a rediculous plan before I tell him how wrong it is and start suspecting him for getting us distracted with such ludicrous ideas. (#113)
lmp, I almost want to say lynch me so people see behind your twisted words, but no that wouldn't work well. (#138)
But, morm has backed down from his suspicions now after hearing lmp, so I don't think him that suspicious as the other two I will mention. (#164)
Mormegil I'm still unsure about, and because of that I don't want to rashly lynch him yet, especially since he's good to have around. (#164)

They have hardly accused each other, and, when they have done so, it has been in the mildest terms. Also, they often seem to be posting at the same time (which might mean nothing as I believe that they are in the same, or a similar, time zone, but it could have been arranged during daytime PM'ing).

I feel relatively confident now that we have found our remaining Gifteds and that morm is the Hunter, while Boro is the Ranger. Of the two, I think that we should kill morm tonight, while his suspicions are (seemingly) diverted towards tar and Farael. We may not get another chance. If morm is the Hunter, then Boro would seem a good choice for the following night. Form, we can afford to leave in the village for a while, if we have an opportunity to kill the useful Gifteds in the meantime.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sauce, the over-analytical wolf
A thought just occurred to me.

Assume that morm is the Hunter and Boro is the Ranger. They can PM each other during the day. What if they agreed that mormegil would outline clear suspicions at the end of the day and drop a heavy Hunter hint at the same time, and that Boro would protect him that night? He would lose his Hunter ability for the Night, yes. But, if he survives and no one else is killed, then he and Boro will have a strong indication that neither of morm’s stated suspects are Wolves since, if they were and they took the hint, they would not dare attack him. On the other hand, if someone else dies, then Farael and tar will be looking very Wolfish to him.

On reflection, therefore, I wonder whether we should kill Boro. He is looking innocent to many of the villagers right now, and I have expressed my belief in his innocence, so he is not a bad target even if he is not the Ranger. And, if I am right in my speculations above, then it is quite possible that morm will declare himself as the Hunter tomorrow and go strongly against tar and Farael.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
That's an intersting theory. I certainly wouldn't put something like that past Mormegil.

But - suppose it's like you say, and we kill Boromir toNIGHT. Tomorrow, we lynch Tar. She's revealed to be innocent. So tomorrow NIGHT, Mormegil knows that his suspicions were off and re-considers whom to hunt.

In other words, it seems to me that once Tar is dead, Mormegil, if he's the Hunter, will become all the more dangerous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lupine Sauce
I see the sense in what you are saying. We may not get another opportunity to safely kill him again. In that case, however, we may decide not to kill morm and go for Formendacil instead (particularly with the Ranger out of the way, if Boro is indeed the Ranger). A revealed morm is nothing but a known innocent if we decide not to go after him, which is exactly what Form is right now. We can then decide when best to kill him, or even leave him be if it looks like we can still win, even with a known innocent in the village.

I do prefer the Boro option because, even if he is not Gifted, his death does us little harm and, if anything, benefits us. And we have no guarantee that morm is the Hunter. If neither of them is Gifted, then I think the Ranger would be more likely to protect morm than Boro.

In addition, I think that morm is far more likely to be of assistance in getting tar or Farael lynched. Boro can be rather mercurial in his supicions, whereas morm falls more on the single-minded side.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Brown Wizard of Wolves
Yes, as I think about it, I become more and more inclined to kill Boromir. We may still be able to kill Mormegil tomorrow NIGHT; even if Tar is lynched and found innocent, I expect Mormegil will not immediately come around to suspecting me, and it's unlikely he would suspect you.
Aiwendil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2006, 11:26 AM   #4
Aiwendil
Late Istar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,224
Aiwendil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Aiwendil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
My canine colleague,

I think things went more or less as well as we could hope toDAY. You are deemed completely innocent due to your vote for Eomer. I am still under scrutiny, but it seems that of the non-Eomer voters, I am perhaps the least suspect. The fact that it's been so quiet works in our favour, I think - though it leaves less room to hide.

Anyway, I suppose the big question toNIGHT is whether to kill Mormegil or Formendacil. What it really comes down to, I guess, is: 1. How sure we are that Morm is the Hunter; 2. How likely it is that he's hunting one of us.

I'm still rather inclined to think he's the Hunter, particularly given that we were right about Boromir. Nonetheless, I want to see how well I can convince myself of it.

Farael is almost certainly not the Hunter, given his self-vote. Nilp is probably not, either, given his anagram. But I would like to go back over the posts of Celuien, Glirdan, and Kath for any possible hints of Giftedness before we settle on Morm.

But, let's suppose Mormegil is the Hunter. The next question is whether it's possible that he's hunting one of us. We can be virtually certain he's not hunting you. But what about me? Early in the DAY, he picked up on my attempts to save Eomer and said that I was looking suspicious to him:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mormegil
I did some reviewing of Aiwendil, the last few post of yesterday didn't sit right with me. [...] It appears that Aiwendil tried to disguise his vote and save Eomer. If tar-a isn't a wolf, which I'm not sure of I think Aiwendil might be. Regardless I think he's worth looking at.
He later backed off of this, saying:

Quote:
The more I hear from Aiwendil the more I find myself trusting him.
Late in the DAY, he said:

Quote:
My opinion of Aiwendil is that he's more innocent today than yesterday and I appreciate SpM's analysis of him however I cannot shake the problematic defense of Eomer and the 'saving votes' I noted earlier.
Now, if we take what he says at face value, it seems rather unlikely that he'll hunt me tonight. Much more likely he'll go for Farael. However, it strikes me that it's possible he was trying to set me up and quiet any fears I might have of killing him.

Also, we have to consider how he'll react to Tar's innocence. He seemed fairly confident of her guilt earlier. Will he see this as further evidence that I was trying to save Eomer by casting suspicion on Tar?

Well, those are some things to think about. I am definitely leaning toward killing Mormegil tonight. He's only likely to become more dangerous later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lycan Man
Wolf Ngaurondil

I have to say, though, that I think the day went rather magnificently, although it was a bit of a roller-coaster ride early on.

Boromir88 turning out to be the Ranger was of course great. I had convinced myself that he was because of those White Tree icons. Strange how no one really commented much on his death. With Boro having been the Ranger, I am almost certain that mormegil is the Hunter.

The Day took a bit of a downturn with morm's initial suspicions of you. You handled that very well. But then, just after I had made a strong case against Farael (who's bizarre logic is his own worst enemy), he went and voted for himself. I thought that might get some villager's sympathy (as it did Formendacil's), but decided to maintain my suspicions of him as it could easily be viewed as a Wolfish ploy. After that, things just got better and better with everyone seemingly turning against tar. She did not help herself with that one short post. Indeed, neither Kath nor Glirdan really helped their causes either. The longer their lack of any substantive input goes on, the more suspicious they will become. And I found it amazing that we virtually had the run of the village ourselves for much of the day, to plant the seeds of suspicion at our leisure, if you will. The only concern here is that it makes us noticeable, and people will start wondering why the Wolves have not killed us (especially me).

It is excellent that you got away without voting for the Day's lynchee for once. I considered voting for Farael, but thought it best that we vote differently and tar looked the more likely to be lynched. With my record it was better that I voted for her. Actually, I almost considered voting for you, but I was concerned that morm and Form might follow suit. It would also have been rather illogical, based on the suspicions that I had been airing.

The case for killing morm is that he is (I am sure) the Hunter and, as you say, he backed off his suspicions of you considerably towards the end of the Day. His innocence is virtually accepted by all and, if he is the Hunter, he might declare at any time and become a known innocent. We also have the chance of taking two villagers down with one kill. The case for not killing morm is that there is a reasonable chance that he will Hunt you tonight, especially with tar being proved innocent. Your vote for tar on day five now looks dangerously like an attempt to save Eomer. In addition, I do think that morm is easier to persuade than Form. That's not to say that we can manipulate him, but he does take notice of what others say and pays attention to well-made arguments. I also have a rather selfish reason for not wanting to kill off morm. As long as he is around, I look less suspicious for still being alive. And, let's face it, with morm dead, you and I will be virtually the only villagers left speaking.

Problem is that, the longer he stays alive, the more likely he is to Hunt one of us as and when we do kill him. So, unless he is to stay around until the end, we probably ought to kill him tonight. Either option (morm of Form) has its risks for us.

On balance, I think we probably ought to kill mormegil. But you are the one most at risk if we do, so it's up to you.

In addition to working out our kill, we need to consider who each of us should target with our suspicions tomorrow. I doubt that either of us can really back down from our suspicions of Farael. In addition to him, I plan on briefing against Kath (quite an easy task) with perhaps a little suspicion of Glirdan thrown in. It is difficult to make a case against Celuien, so perhaps you ought to start taking a look at Nilp.

Finally, we should think about what to do if the village starts to turn against you in light of tar's innocence. I think that you should be able to pull through it. Farael and Kath should be more likely candidates to be lynched. But, although I would rather not be left as a lone Wolf, I may have to consider voting for you, even if it risks you being lynched. I think that I will certainly have to express some strong doubt about you quite early on. Either that or I back off my suspicions of you and start regarding you as more likely innocent, perhaps an unlikely approach for a Wolf to take towards a fellow Wolf at this stage of the game. I just think that my current "some suspicions" approach will look rather obvious if you are lynched. What do you think?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
I've looked back at Glirdan's, Kath's, and Celuien's posts, and I still don't see any sign that one of them could be the Hunter. So I'm feeling pretty confident that we're right about Morm now.

Which leaves the question of whether he's hunting me. I've been pondering the last thing he said about me:

Quote:
My opinion of Aiwendil is that he's more innocent today than yesterday and I appreciate SpM's analysis of him however I cannot shake the problematic defense of Eomer and the 'saving votes' I noted earlier.
I noted earlier the possibility that his decrease in suspicion of me could be a set-up to get us to kill him tonight. But that's not the feeling I get from this quote. If he intended such a set-up, I'd expect him to state clearly that he thinks I'm innocent. Here he comes across as quite genuine in thinking that I look more innocent but that he still has some doubts.

So let's set aside the set-up possibility. Supposing that his views are more or less exactly as stated, will he hunt me? The one thing that might cause him to do so is Tar's innocence. I was pretty firm in linking her with Eomer on DAY 4. But on DAY 5, I backed off significantly, saying that Eomer's last-minute antics made Tar look much less suspicious. I even voted for Farael instead. So I'm really not sure to what extent Tar's death will implicate me in Morm's mind.

But another thing to consider is the fact that Mormegil will probably only get more and more dangerous. Suppose we don't kill him tonight. Suppose we lynch Farael tomorrow. He's innocent. Now Mormegil will most certainly suspect me. Getting him lynched (even if we could do it) wouldn't help, because he may very well take one of us with him that way as well.

Can we win without Mormegil's death? I tend to think not. He could declare himself as the Hunter, remember, in which case we'd have a proven innocent - and a very intelligent proven innocent - with very few villagers left.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wolfman Sauce
I also have a rather selfish reason for not wanting to kill off morm. As long as he is around, I look less suspicious for still being alive.
This is true. On the other hand, killing Morm would almost pre-empt suspicion of you. What I mean is that you'd have a very simple answer to the question "Why are the wolves not killing the loud, unsuspected villagers like SpM?" "Well," you'd say, "the wolves are killing the loud, unsuspected villagers. They've killed Boromir and Mormegil and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm next."

So I suppose I lean toward killing Mormegil as well. I'd like to think it over a little bit more, though.

I agree that Kath will be a good target for you tomorrow, particularly with her vote for Tar. I'm thinking that I'll remove Celuien from my suspect list and possibly go after Glirdan. In writing my analysis of him, I found a few weak points to target. But I guess it's inevitable that Farael will be my top suspect tomorrow.

I would wait at least a little while and try to see which way village opinion of me seems to be going. Of particular interest is Formendacil's opinion, because he's a proven innocent who will be trusted. If it looks like a storm is brewing against me, then you could start to ramp up your suspicion. But if not (if, for instance, things are more focused on Farael), it might be a good idea to go the other way - to back off a little with your suspicion of me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolfman Sauce
I think that morm will still have reservations about targetting you (or me, for that matter) as the three of us were the only ones who really contributed much of substance today. It may be that he will not want to risk the village losing your valuable input as well as his in one blow.

It really all comes down to how much he is likely to suspect you and how much he suspects others. As you say, you backed off your suspicions of tar during the Day, and voted for Farael who, for all he knows, is a Wolf.

Indeed, his most likely alternative target, I think, is Farael. He voted for Farael, so he was obviously unimpressed with the self-vote. Tar and Farael were most villagers' main suspects during the Day. With tar proven innocent, the obvious choice is surely Farael. Of course, if morm does Hunt Farael and takes him down with him, you will attract a fair amount of suspicion the next Day, but I am sure that you can deal with that.

His other possible target is Kath, given that he noted her vote for tar as curious at the end of the Day. She does look suspicious.

On balance, I think he will go for Farael, but it's still a risk, obviously. I reckon that morm will be expecting to be attacked tonight, so he will choose his kill very carefully.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Analytical Wolf
Some further thoughts.

I think that we do have a reasonable chance of winning without killing mormegil tonight, but this would most likely involve you standing as a sacrifice, with me going strongly against you, on Day 6 or 7. That would allow me to kill mormegil the Night after your death with minimum risk and probably gain me enough credibility to take the win on Day 8 (some time next Monday).

If, however, we kill mormegil tonight, we could be making it much easier or much more difficult for ourselves, depending on who he takes with him.

If he takes Farael with him, we have a chance of winning with both of us surviving and in a shorter time (on Day 7), depending upon how the remaining villagers react to you following the deaths of tar, mormegil and Farael.

If, however, morm takes you with him, the whole game becomes rather more difficult to win, particularly as this carries with it the most chance of the village (Formendacil and Farael particularly) turning on me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolfagast the Brown
I've been pondering.

Leaving Mormegil alive tonight and performing a wolf sacrifice on DAY 6 or 7 is an attractive possibility. I would envision things going more or less like this:

- Form dies tonight.
- I get lynched tomorrow
- Mormegil dies the next night, taking someone (maybe Kath?) with him
- That leaves you and four innocents on DAY 7

You'd be fairly secure after getting both me and Eomer lynched, and it would probably come down to you vs. two innocents on DAY 8.

On the other hand, if we kill Mormegil tonight and he doesn't happen to be hunting me, it'll be the two of us versus five innocents tomorrow. There's a fair chance I'd be lynched on DAY 6, which would again leave you and four innocents on DAY 7.

Of course, the best case scenario would be that we kill Mormegil tonight, he kills, say, Farael, and I manage to survive DAY 6 (which is possible, given that Kath looks rather suspicious). Then it would be the two of us versus three innocents on DAY 7, and we'd be virtually certain to win.

And last of all there's the worst case scenario - we kill Mormegil and he takes me with him. Then it would be you against six innocents on DAY 6. In all likelihood, this would devolve to you versus four innocents on DAY 7, the only difference from the previous scenarios being that you would not have the extra security of having lynched me.

I'm really quite torn. My usual instinct is to play it safe, but I'm very tempted to take the gamble.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Viscount Kettle the Wolfish
That pretty much mirrors my thinking.

I am up for the gamble, but given that you are the one most at risk, it's your call.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ngaurondil
All right, I'm up for the gamble as well. Let's kill Mormegil.

If I die tonight, good luck to you!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolfman Sauce
Mormegil it is then. I shall PM Shemod.

If you die tonight, I am going to have a very hard time bringing the game home. But I will do my best.

I sincerely hope that you do not.

If you do, my condolences.
Apologies for our loquacity - though what I've posted has been significantly trimmed down, honestly!
Aiwendil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2006, 01:51 PM   #5
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Auspicious Wraith
 
Eomer of the Rohirrim's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
Eomer of the Rohirrim is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Eomer of the Rohirrim is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Shield

Fascinating stuff, guys. Every night I wondered how your discussions were going.

I still can't believe that I was the quiet wolf.
__________________
Los Ingobernables de Harlond
Eomer of the Rohirrim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2006, 06:14 PM   #6
mormegil
Maundering Mage
 
mormegil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
mormegil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.mormegil is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
I haven't read through all of your discussions as they are seem almost novel in length but I find it interesting that on Night 2 you thought I was gifted because I was more quiet than normal. The problem there is that I've been busier for the last couple of games but I guess my reputation as an extreme loud mouth proceeds me and won't leave me no matter how hard I try.
__________________
“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
mormegil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2006, 09:50 PM   #7
Formendacil
Dead Serious
 
Formendacil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers.
Posts: 3,328
Formendacil is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Formendacil is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Formendacil is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Formendacil is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
Send a message via AIM to Formendacil Send a message via MSN to Formendacil
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Werewolves
I get the feeling that no-one will believe that I could possibly be a wolf again and so will give me the benefit of the doubt. The Seers will not bother dreaming about me and I will last 'til the end. (I hope.)
Not a chance.

I may have been a Fool, but you were my Night 1 dream, Eomer. And SPM was my Night 2. After that, I knew I was the Fool, so I stopped dreaming.

Why did I pick you first?

Simply because you HAVE been a Werewolf so often- and because you were the one Loudmouth Saurondacil didn't dream of.

SPM was a given second-placer.

Oh if I had been the real Seer!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim
I still can't believe that I was the quiet wolf.
That's one reason I had a hard time suspecting either Aiwendil or SPM for the longest time... it seemed natural that you should be the loudmouth of any wolfpack.
__________________
I prefer history, true or feigned.
Formendacil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2006, 12:46 AM   #8
Lhunardawen
Hauntress of the Havens
 
Lhunardawen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
Lhunardawen has been trapped in the Barrow!
Silmaril

Mark my words, SpW: Never again will you live 'til the end of ANY game, whatever your role may be. Just ask Eomer.
Lhunardawen is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:34 AM.



Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.