Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Lalaith]

Alas. Poor Eomer. He homed in on the guilty ones over the last two Days, with almost Seerish brilliance, and this sealed his fate.
But still, we (I mean the remaining innocents,) can take great cheer in yesterDay's events. I was hoping we’d get one, but two and a lover….what a result.

Now, onto analysis. (I wrote most of this yesterday because I have to go right away and won't be back until late toDay.)
Of course now so much becomes clear.
Once spawn’s death and Seer status is announced, Farael is very quick and early to jump in with his attempt to indict Kath. This means that any watching wolf could guess that Lhuna is the lupine with the lover. Anyone who voted for Lhuna yesterDay (yes, including me) is more suspicious than the Kath-voters.
What of TGWBS? On the one hand, Lhuna’s willingness to leave him in the lurch, lynchwise, on day one, speaks for his innocence. But his actions yesterDay don’t look good to me. With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men. Is he (as I think Farael, who knew the wolves, actually said!) lone male wolf among three females, and is this his way of proving to his lady friends that he is not a traitor?

One other point. The Day before yesterDay, we had three unlikely babes in the wood – LMP, Form and Samwise – all seemingly realising with shock that lovers would reveal things to each other. I wondered whether this wide-eyed innocence was a ploy by at least one of them – to the extent that I re-posted my surprise, in a deliberately barbed way, hoping to gauge the reaction it got.
Samwise cheerfully acknowledges the oversight – an innocent reaction. LMP reacts huffily. He also makes a rather clumsy attempt to construct a case against me, a case which is (later) partly rebutted by Gurthang. But Form does not respond to my barb at all. Maybe he, as a very grand player, thinks both I and my point are beneath notice, but still…he’d been worrying me anyway, and this doesn’t help at all.
Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?
A quick analysis of Kath-voters:
Cailin, post 330. Looks good, but could be a ruthless wolf jettisoning her tainted fellow-travellers. Celuien votes for Kath because it’s more useful, another tick. Gurthang’s lonely vigil, waiting to catch Lhuna, is most impressive of all…perhaps too impressive. But I am inclined to think him innocent. Samwise also feels innocent to me.
And all praise to the late Eomer (post 162 - spot on, sir - except with one obvious error, ahem, which he did later retract)

I am currently most uncomfortable with Form, TGWBS and LMP, in that order.

[the guy who be short]

Well, we see Farael's motives now. His entire case against Kath was full of holes, and I feel fully justified in voting for him...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men

Oh well. I knew people would try to use these deaths against me. Come, and I shall answer to you all...

[Cailín]

*weeps* Alas, alas, Eomer dead, and it is not even my fault. How terribly tragic and unfair.

Now why would Eomer be killed?

Mind you, he has been under some suspicion the past few Days and though he can be as much a threat as an ordinary, I am quite convinced they thought him the other Seer. That is great, because I am also almost certain he did that intentionally. He has mentioned the Seer often yesterDay - constantly seeming to bring it up while it was unnecessary - and he and Spawn seemed allies before (likely Eomer was her first dream; he would definitely be my first dream, too). It is as close to a Ranger as we can get.

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.

--

More after breakfast.

[tar-ancalime]

So far in this game, the too-obvious-to-be-true has been, well, true.

Anguirel's death really did point to Kath.

dancing spawn's death really did point to Lhuna.

Farael's attacks on Kath really were unfounded (or founded on insider knowledge, as opposed to the discourse of the game).

So, at the risk of stating the obvious,

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.

I agree. I haven't trusted a word she's said since the beginning of Day 2.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.

Thank you for your confidence; and I agree with most of this, with one major exception: Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.

Glirdan's & Lalaith's voting records are not as good as Formy's. Lalaith has said some really questionable things regarding the whole Kath/Farael/Eomer thing, and her voting record is worthy of question. We need to see more of the substantive and helpful kinds of posts from Lalaith in order to allay suspicion of her, should she deserve our confidence.

[Celuien]

Alas, Eomer shall be missed. Praise his memory for spotting both Lhuna and Kath! I'll start the donations for the Royal Eomer Memorial Concert Hall.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?

Huh? What? Oh. I did. Actually, I didn't even think of that when I made the list. Pure coincidence. I guess that particular group that I'd been looking at was just the set that I'd noticed the most at the moment.

Actually, I'm more inclined even than before to think lmp innocent now. He did go after Lhuna pretty strongly, even before it would have been obvious to the Wolves by Farael's defense of her (well, at least from what we see in the village) that they were the Lovers. I'll go back over lmp's posts later.

Agree that TGWBS is definitely looking suspicious now that we know 2/4 wolves at a minimum were indeed female. I'll be watching him closely.

Okay. I'll be back in a few hours.

[tar-ancalime]

Glirdan:

DAY 1

#15 says that double lynches are useful to the wolves

#41 responds to Ang, overly heated, but that's in character for Glirdan

#44 defends tgwbs for his self-vote

#45 nothing of substance

#82 defends Farael against me; suspects Garin as part of an if-we-lynch-tar-ancalime scenario. Where did this come from?

#85 responds to Garin, who was responding to his #82

#90 says he'll probably vote for Garin

#95 sums up the votes so far; votes (fourth) for Garin, saying "his fate is sealed" and "I'm probably wrong on this"

#98 explains his vote farther: he meant to vote for Garin all along but didn't realize how many others still had yet to vote (?)

#101 nothing of substance; refers to himself as a villager

DAY 2

#167 offers to analyze Valier and Caranlondien

#168 analysis of Valier; questions why she voted for him instead of Formendacil

#171 analysis of Caranlondien; casts suspicion on her by misreading her post about "the true lumberjack" as referring to Anguirel; says this makes her vote for Ang look suspicious

#192 apologizes to Caranlondien for #171; defends his new, more active posting style; suspects Naria for being quiet

#235 a smorgasbord of defenses, accusations, and strategy. Here's a sample:

I'm not so sure that they would completely forget about framing the rest of us. But I do agree that they probably far more interested in findig the Seers then framing us. Yet, I think that they would (subconciously mind you) still attempt to frame others. I find that this would be a pretty good way of smoking out a Seer. If someone attacked one who was an innocent and the Seer knew that person was innocent, I believe that the automatic reaction would be to defend that person. In doing so, the Wolves would go for that person. That seems to be the case with what happened to Ang.

Defends his "new style" again, more than once. Reads Lhuna's "damned if I do, damned if I don't" comment as a confession--this looked silly at the time, but now I'm wondering how he knew that.
After a quote from Formendacil, regarding Samwise, Glirdan says he's suspicious of Gurthang. Huh?
Says Cailin and Formendacil are the Lovers; accuses Cailin of being jealous of all the attention Lhuna is getting.
Defends himself against Eomer; this is the most serious matter in the post and he leaves it till last. Eomer is saying that Ang's death looked bad for Glirdan (Ang voted for Glirdan on Day 1.) Looks much more relevant after Eomer's death, no?

#243 says he'll correct the error in #235 (in which he accuses Gurthang instead of Formendacil; the error stands). This error, imho, makes #235 look even stranger: it means he's accusing Formendacil+Lhuna and Formendacil+Cailin of being Lovers. Says he's not surprised at the suspicion against him.

#245 votes for Naria for being quiet

DAY 3

#338 attributes my statement to Thinlomien (maybe not so bad, but it does cheese me off); weighs in on the early version of tgwbs's plan (says it's unlikely that the wolves will continue to attack a female each night, using Ang's death as evidence); defends himself against Eomer again. Again, this is the most serious thing in the post, and again he buries it at the bottom. Says he's going to analyze spawn and eonwe.

#340 analysis of eonwe. I thought this was odd at the time, and I still think it's odd now. Eonwe was (a) innocent, and (b) lynched. No need to figure out why he's dead from his posts; wouldn't it make more sense to look at his accusers? Could this be another attempt to seem helpful without really contributing anything? (Someone else mentioned this in reference to his analyses of Valier and Caranlondien, each of whom had posted about three times at the time of his investigations.)

#351 a partial analysis of spawn's posts; draws no conclusions at all but notes that spawn said he was "acting like usual."

#399 finishes his analysis of spawn; decides that she likely didn't dream of either Lhuna or Kath.

#412 says he doesn't know whom to vote for. Notes that there are cases against both Lhuna and Kath; says there's not much pointing to Kath as a wolf; thinks Kath or Naria is the (non-wolf) Lover.

#414 says Kath is a wolf and votes for her

DAY 4

not here yet

This looks pretty bad for Glirdan in my opinion. I'd welcome alternative analyses, though. (I've made my editorial comments as I went along.)

[Caranlondien]

Tar-Ancalime's analysis of Glirdan puts him on my top suspect list. So right now I'm most suspicious of TGWBS, Formendacil, and Glirdan. As for innocents, I'm inclined to trust Gurthang and tar-ancalime; as someone else said, I'd like to trust LMP, but I'm not convinced yet. I'll be back in a few hours, hopefully with a more substantial analysis.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

What of TGWBS? On the one hand, Lhuna’s willingness to leave him in the lurch, lynchwise, on day one, speaks for his innocence. But his actions yesterDay don’t look good to me. With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men. Is he (as I think Farael, who knew the wolves, actually said!) lone male wolf among three females, and is this his way of proving to his lady friends that he is not a traitor?

I think so. Who but a werewolf would make finding the Lovers top priority?

Originally Posted by Lalaith

One other point. The Day before yesterDay, we had three unlikely babes in the wood – LMP, Form and Samwise – all seemingly realising with shock that lovers would reveal things to each other. I wondered whether this wide-eyed innocence was a ploy by at least one of them – to the extent that I re-posted my surprise, in a deliberately barbed way, hoping to gauge the reaction it got.

Quite simply, I had not thought about it until then. Sorry for taking offense at your offensive (to the male gender) post. Actually, your little test was flawed, because now you can't be sure whether we three reacted to your male bashing or your query as to the three of us. Too bad; I would have liked to know.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?

Good question. She is one of the more suspicious based on voting records. More about that when I can compile my notes...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

And all praise to the late Eomer.

Agreed. His voting record (except for Day 1 when I did no better) was stellar.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I am currently most uncomfortable with Form, TGWBS and LMP, in that order.

Good. A healthy analysis of the three of us should point you in the right direction.

[Valier]

Well I am so glad that the double lynch worked out as well as it did! I was not overly suspisious of Kath...but that shows how much I know. Eomer was not someone I thought the wolves would kill yet. I shall be back in a few hours to go over things.( gotta go to class)

[the guy who be short]

I stole the beginning of this from you.

Yesterday.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Well... this tells us a lot. Whoever the wolves are, they were willing to sacrifice two of their number. I shall have to dig deepers.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Somewhere in Valinor, two white-robed persons were watching television. On the fluorescent screen were written the words: BD Big Prophet: Big Prophet is Watching.

'Change the channel,' said the white-robed woman.

'Wait. The show's not over yet,' replied the white-robed man.

The woman took the remote control from him. He gazed at her with a look of infinite sadness.

There was silence for a few minutes. After that, the woman reluctantly turned the TV on.

'Oh, wait,' said the man, 'they're done. I've to go.' As he walked to the door, he stopped, turned back to her, and asked, 'Do you want to come with me?'

She gazed at her with a look of infinite annoyance. He shrugged.

'Never mind.'

And then he walked out of the door.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Formendacil had transformed before the eyes of the village. The dashing, handsome unemployed man had become an agile, hideous unemployed Werewolf. The villagers did not dare face the monster, even though they had him outnumbered. He managed to avoid Gurthang's arrows, and when Caranlondien tried to make her chainsaw connect with Weredacil's neck, he wrested the machine from her hands and smashed it on the ground. It seems that the village was doomed to be destroyed by this monster.

Suddenly a brilliance illumed the dusk of Ened-in-Nowhere. Formendawolf had seen it before, when they had attacked dancing spawn of ungoliant. He shied from the light as, once again, a figure robed in dazzling white came out of the glow. In his hand was, once again, a flaming brand.

'What are you doing here?' asked Weredacil.

'Well,' said the white-robed man, 'I'm here to end the game.'

'You can't end it now! I have a village to ravage!'

'Wait. It says here in my footage of the voting, you've got three votes. You're the lynchee.'

'Why, I . . .' said the Werewolf, then he stopped talking and charged at the white-robed man. The white-robed man overpowered him, bound him, and threw him to a turtle cage. But he forgot to lock it, so after a thousand seconds Formendawolf escaped again, and attempted to strike at the white-robed man's back. However, some of the villagers were prepared; Thinlómien threw a particularly hard mushroom and Lalaith a bag of coins at the Werewolf's head. He fell down, stunned. Caranlondien took her axe and came over to Formendacil.

'For my chainsaw,' she whispered as she chopped the last Werewolf's head.

The scroll of the census was changed, for the last time:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.
Kath, a Werewolf, was accidentally strangled on the third DAY
Lhunardawen, the Werewolf Beloved, died with his Lover on the third DAY
Farael, the Lover, died defending his Beloved on the third DAY
Eomer of the Rohirrim, an Ordinary Villager, was poked with woodwinds on the fourth NIGHT.
the guy who be short, an Ordinary Villager, was stuffed into a tree-frog on the fourth DAY.
Glirdan, an Ordinary Villager, was consumed by fire from the Mod God on the fourth DAY.
Celuien, an Ordinary Villager, was 'Freud' alive on the fifth NIGHT.
Valier, an Ordinary Villager, was eaten by SamwolfGamgee on the fifth DAY.
SamwiseGamgee, a Werewolf, was shot by Gurthang on the fifth DAY.
tar-ancalime, an Ordinary Villager, went to the future on the sixth NIGHT.
littlemanpoet, a Seer, was crushed by a boulder on the sixth NIGHT.
Formendacil, an Werewolf, was had his head chopped off on the sixth DAY.

Those left alive are:

Caranlondien, a lumberjack
Cailín, the town gossip
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Gurthang, an arrowsmith

'In case you haven't noticed,' said the white-robed man (who was, to the village's surprise, the Prophet), 'Villagers won.'

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Dreams:

NIGHT 1: Lhunardawen
NIGHT 2: Gurthang
NIGHT 3: Cailín
NIGHT 4: Lalaith
NIGHT 5: Celuien
NIGHT 6: Formendacil

Miscellany:

If we have had gifteds:

Thinlómien should have been the Ranger.
tar-ancalime the Hunter.
Lalaith the Cobbler.

Naria should have been the fourth Werewolf, not Formendaga, but for the sake of gender equality, I replaced her with a male. (Besides, she told me she had trouble being a Werewolf.)

On NIGHT 5, SamwiseGamgee told me to kill Celuien. By that time, my inbox was full. Later, Formendacil told my sister he wanted to kill Lalaith.

Well, those aren't that important, but someone might want to know.

Thoughts:

The Seer-iffs are too powerful.

After observing this game, I realised that in a Lover game, the Lovers are equal to a Bear. So I think the standard Bear-game gifteds (1 Seer, 1 Ranger, 1 Hunter, 2 Shirriffs) should be used.

Just my opinion.

And Cailín: I did do two male, two female Werewolves. I just didn't want you to know. By the time of Kath and Lhunardawen's death you wouldn't have needed the Seer--you would have just double-lynched the males to victory. Not a good ending for me.

Great game, everyone! Reps from me will come much later, sorry. I'll disappear from the Downs for a while after this.

[Lalaith]

So did the wolves all nominate kills seperately then? And if your inbox hadn't been full, would I have died?

Splendid game, everyone. Two Seers did make life easier for us, but those last two wolves were still damn difficult to catch, I thought...

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Nilp

you would have just double-lynched the males to victory

Good game people! Being Nilp was hilarious, I assure you. And I was quite glad to go when I did really... otherwise I'd have confused you all to death.

And I'm glad you implemented my double lynching strategy after my death. Though, ironically, this has turned me against double lynchings - it's fun using maths to improve chances in a game, but I think it makes it dull when it is used to certify victory.

[littlemanpoet]

What a fun game! I had a blast!

You may note that in my "final posts" of each Day, one of my lists was the known innocents. So if I had never 'revealed', you would have likely smacked yourselves on the forehead and said, "How obvious!"

Yes, the double seer is quite powerful. But maybe it's a good option without the Lovers, having four werewolves...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I could have told you that would happen. Oh wait, I did....

It wasn't quite as damning as Anguirel's Heroes game where we brave souls had to throw in the towel almost immediately, but it did remind me of that.

Is there any doubt now that double-lynchings are no fun?

Regardless...

...well done villagers! You were ruthlessly efficient and I'm very proud of you all.

Especial credit to LMP, whom I thought pursued a brilliant Seer strategy.

[Celuien]

Wow! Great game, everyone!

I think I'm jinxed. Every single time I write a long, elaborate post overnight, one of the wolves eats me.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Good game people! Being Nilp was hilarious, I assure you. And I was quite glad to go when I did really... otherwise I'd have confused you all to death.

You did a good job of being confusing, don't worry. Nilp should be proud.

Originally Posted by Nilp

I did do two male, two female Werewolves. I just didn't want you to know. By the time of Kath and Lhunardawen's death you wouldn't have needed the Seer--you would have just double-lynched the males to victory. Not a good ending for me.

Actually, I assumed there was an equal ratio because I thought that having an unequal ratio in among the wolves would have made to too easy for them to skew kills toward the gender most likely to contain the ordo Lover. At least that's what I thought until the question came up and I realized that we really shouldn't know the wolf pack composition because it would make our job too easy.

I liked having the Lovers. It added a new dimension of complexity above the Bear by having two members on the separate team and guaranteeing that the non-wolf population would drop after the wolf-Lover's demise.

Originally Posted by Nilp

The Seer-iffs are too powerful.

Maybe having two non-communicating Seers would balance out better. They could dream on alternate nights until one dies. Then the remaining Seer could proceed with nightly dreams.