WWJ VI: Return to Midsomer Mawlin - Kill me again

[JennyHallu]

*checks pillows* I seem to be good, Kuru!


I also think we should be keeping a close eye on Gil-Galad. The man walks around town dressed as a bat...obviously he has deep-seated issues.

And did anyone have a grudge against Mith? It's always the ones with a grudge...

[Kitanna]

1) Diamond- I mean it's such a sweet name, diamond. Everyone thinks diamonds are pretty and sparkly. But all I see when I think of diamonds is a hefty hole in my wallet. Werewolfs=bad, diamonds=bad, put them together. You're all smart

I also think we should be keeping a close eye on Gil-Galad. The man walks around town dressed as a bat...obviously he has deep-seated issues.

If we're going to do things like that I think we should watch out for Firefoot. I mean Mith had received a message before her death saying "Beware the Ides of March" a quote made famous by Shakespeare. Shakespeare who was a writer. Mmmm, and Firefoot is a writer. Coincidence? I think not.

Anywho, I see Fea is abusing the retractable votes deal early on. Why am I not surprised?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Anywho, I see Fea is abusing the retractable votes deal early on. Why am I not surprised?

I'm not abusing it, I'm enjoying it. It's a form of recreation. Much like mormy's drugs.

[mormegil]

I have further substantiation of my theory.

JennyHallu really means AN HUN's JELLY, which of course the Hun's enjoyed their Opium egro kill Mith means more profit.

[Nogrod]

Some people here seem to be emptying their pints with quite a haste?

But maybe we should also use our "little grey cells". Well, basically, that is nothing I have invented myself: it surely was that Belgian guy, much more sophisticated than I am. But as I still am an inspector, I would like to propose an idea to be thought of by us all. I know, I almost got lynched the first day in my last game to go on proposing this, but I might try it again, as this company is made out of experts in this inspecting stuff.

So I propose, we start to insert some pressure on the wolves (or drugdealers, or whatever we have here) by voicing our common concern with the silent partners (silent = not posting, or only posting nonsense). We might even "decide" to go for them as the evening draws nearer, if we don't have better ideas.

Why this way?
1) These silent one's are like submarines: they become all the more nauseating and dangerous as the game goes on, and the number of players reduces.
2) The first day lynching is quite random anyhow, with this one, we could have at least something to stand with (not picking randomly the one who is two names down from oneself in the original list of players - I've seen that reasoning in a game!), and in the worst scenario, eg. there really being people who actually don't play, having them removed in the first day, not dragging them all the way to the more critical situations.
3) It would make the wolves posting during the first day: something that could turn out to be useful later on.
4) These silent ones are not good gaming company anyhow. And any specific RL hindrances should be declared in the admin. thread.

I hope this concern is invalid, and all the players turn up, with something to say. The list looks promising, but still...

And I know, that it's hard to make the difference between nonsense and sense, at least on the first day.

But I hope you consider this.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Oh fine.

--Kuruharan

I tried. *pouts*

Nogrod, I like your idea. Mercilessly slaughter the quiet ones. If you have a legitimate reason to be away, we'll know it. If you don't, you're simply floating. It's better for everyone if all are forced to participate. That way if somebody, for example, says "Fea's a wolf.", they'll actually have some evidence to back them up.

See? I've learned things in my college writing courses. When you make a statement, you have to back it up. All killing quieties does is ascertain that we'll have our works cited page.

So... can I kill you Nogrod? Please? I need somebody onto whom I can latch.

[Nogrod]

And btw. we really should start with nonsense. I totally agree. What else can we do? But let's just see, who can't come out from it and start making sense as the day goes forwards...

I'll add a piece to this other part of the first day maddness.

= Jenny
And did anyone have a grudge against Mith? It's always the ones with a grudge...

Well, she just made me Hercule Poirot in the introduction, as I am not! Grudge-grudge...

[Firefoot]

If we're going to do things like that I think we should watch out for Firefoot. I mean Mith had received a message before her death saying "Beware the Ides of March" a quote made famous by Shakespeare. Shakespeare who was a writer. Mmmm, and Firefoot is a writer. Coincidence? I think not.

You know, if being accused of werewolvery is what it takes to be compared with Shakespeare... I think I can take that. And if you really want to know if I'm a wolf, compare me to JRRT and you won't even have to lynch me - I'll die and go to heaven.

But if you, Kitanna, are a wolf, I will unfortunately have to conclude that you were on drugs when you said that and assume that it is not true, which would be extremely sad. So don't be a wolf.

[Nogrod]

= Boromir88
So, the first order of business with 3 wolves amongst 13 players means there's an approximate 1/4 ratio.

This I find both intriguing and most fun. So from every randomly picked four people, we will have one wolf listed with them. That's the probability law. And I know, that this "spreading the first day vote" -tactics, kind of clings to just this fact.

It's quite easy to form a group of four from us lot. And still everytime, it would turn out one wolf by the probabilities.

So if I just say, as a way of probing, that both Feanor and Boromir have been very happy to go on making dire accusations, I could have formed a group of two: meaning that there is a 50% chance of another one of them being a wolf! And add Kitanna to that group of accusers, we have a group of three, and so 75%! That same of course applies, if I say, that me and Jenny have played our first ever two games together, so we form a 50% chance to you others - as do Oddwen and Kuruharan, whose names both end with the letter "n" etc.

For this kind of reasons too, I would be sticking more happily to this "not participating" -tactics as a first reason to go on with the votes this first evening.

There are so far 5 people (Diamond, Sleepy, Gil, Azaelia and Oddwen) who have not yet posted anything, due to the timezones, most probably. But if some people still stand on this kind of list as the day draws to a close?

And a random spread-vote has one great problem in it. We risk lynching a vocal (and thence possibly helpful) villager with a probability of 3/4. That's just too much for us villagers, and would suit the wolves just fine... (they won't be wasting their time, during the nights, on the silent ones)

[mormegil]

++Nogrod

Far too eager to lynch the quiet ones. It's only been 3 to 4 hours and he's worrying about this. I won't retract my vote at this point today unless something major comes to light wot wot.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if I just say, as a way of probing, that both Feanor and Boromir have been very happy to go on making dire accusations, I could have formed a group of two: meaning that there is a 50% chance of another one of them being a wolf!

Um... It's been over a year since I've taken maths and I rather loathed it through highschool, ergo I could be wrong. But if a ratio is 1:4 out of a randomly chosen group, then shouldn't the corresponding ratio of a smaller randomly chosen group be .5:2?

Following Nogrod's example, Boro or I would only be half-lupine by probability.

Or I'm misunderstanding the example?

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

For this kind of reasons too, I would be sticking more happily to this "not participating" -tactics as a first reason to go on with the votes this first evening.

There are so far 5 people (Diamond, Sleepy, Gil, Azaelia and Oddwen) who have not yet posted anything, due to the timezones, most probably. But if some people still stand on this kind of list as the day draws to a close?

And a random spread-vote has one great problem in it. We risk lynching a vocal (and thence possibly helpful) villager with a probability of 3/4. That's just too much for us villagers, and would suit the wolves just fine... (they won't be wasting their time, during the nights, on the silent ones)

I'm sorry, but I honestly don't see where you're coming from. I live in an area (EST) which makes it so hard for me to get online right after the start of the game. My entry times will vary each day, but expect me right around this time on weekdays.

I think your call to lynch the quiet ones came just a bit too early. I can see if maybe I didn't show up until right before the deadline, or had missed the first day entirely without advance notice, then yes. There might be some justification there to lynch me (though I wouldn't be happy about it, of course). But just a few hours late? I'm sure I speak for all of us "silent ones" when I say, please, a little grace period would be wonderful.

And before anyone picks on me for voting early, this is a heads-up. I am going to be voting in a few hours, possibly sooner, because of time constraints again.

And allow me to say, if nothing changes, I will probably be voting for you, Norgod, just because your eagerness to get rid of the people who may not be able to get online for a few more hours just doesn't sit right with me.

Cheers!

[Boromir88]

I'm sure I speak for all of us "silent ones" when I say, please, a little grace period would be wonderful.~Azaelia

When we have wolves no one deserves a grace period, darling. Though I do agree that timezones and other RL reasons should be taken into consideration and not make "quietness" the soul reason to lynch someone.

That way if somebody, for example, says "Fea's a wolf.", they'll actually have some evidence to back them up.~Fea

You know my tape recorder is still playing? Do we have a confession!

Far too eager to lynch the quiet ones. It's only been 3 to 4 hours and he's worrying about this. I won't retract my vote at this point today unless something major comes to light wot wot.~mormegil

Fine deduction mormegil. In fact it's very unusual to have wolves laying back quietly the first day. Now I know this goes to incriminate me, but wolves like to stick their paws in business. Eventhough, there is typically a quiet, flying under the radar, type wolf, to obscure from discussion on Day 1 for wolves is unusual. They have an advantage we don't, they know who they are and they already come into the day with a strategy and a plan for how they can stick their paws in the situation.

So, I would agree with mormegil and say that Nogrod you are definitely looking odd with your persistance to get us focused on the "quiet" ones. We aren't hear to lynch quiet people, we're here to lynch wolves.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Well. My time is up, as I have other things that must get done this evening (ie homework, talking with family members, etc). I've been sitting here waiting for anyone to post, but no such luck.

So here's my vote.

++Norgod

Because I said I would, and nothing has happened to change my mind. I hate voting this early on, since I don't have a good sense of who anyone is yet. First days are always tough, and time restrictions don't make it any easier. My vote actually has a reason behind it: so far, he seems to be the most aggressive toward silent members, and that sent up a red flag, since it was so early on in the day, and in the life of this village.

Norgod, there is a hole in your reasoning: you claim that spreading out the vote will cause us to lynch a vocal, and therefore helpful villager. Sure, perhaps in terms of outward appearance. But what if that person whose vocal-ness (ha! new word!) you value so much is really a wolf, masquerading as a helpful, talkative villager?

Granted, a quiet villager could be a wolf trying to fly under the radar, as it were. There's two sides to any argument.

I'm not saying lynch the loud ones. I'm not saying lynch the quiet ones. I'm saying, think, and think hard before voting, even on the first day.

I realize that being hte second vote for someone looks suspicious especially to a person in favor of spreading out the vote. I don't trust anyone's innocence but my own at this point, and am voting for the person who I find most suspicious. I'm not going to try to spread out the vote and go after someone who hasn't even had a chance to speak yet, because it isn't fair.

Edit: Cross-posted with Boro.

Boro, perhaps my wording was off, in that statement in question. What I meant to say is that I think that an early call to lynch people who haven't spoken yet is not necessarily the right way to go about it, and to give people a chance to speak before crying wolf. Who knows, maybe our seer is one of the people who haven't spoken yet.

[Kitanna]

Well, I see Nogrod has made quite a name for himself since I last checked. His "lynch the silent villagers" plan seems more malicious than wolfish to me.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why this way?
1) These silent one's are like submarines: they become all the more nauseating and dangerous as the game goes on, and the number of players reduces.
2) The first day lynching is quite random anyhow, with this one, we could have at least something to stand with (not picking randomly the one who is two names down from oneself in the original list of players - I've seen that reasoning in a game!), and in the worst scenario, eg. there really being people who actually don't play, having them removed in the first day, not dragging them all the way to the more critical situations.
3) It would make the wolves posting during the first day: something that could turn out to be useful later on.
4) These silent ones are not good gaming company anyhow. And any specific RL hindrances should be declared in the admin. thread.

His first three points can be seen as reasonable, but his fourth point is more of an attack on anyone who can't get on often. Despite his overeagerness to get the silent ones I'd hesitate voting for him (at this point at least). I feel this move on his part is too wreckless for a wolf. But still Nogrod has raised a few warning flags, yet, for me it is too early to make a desicion that can comdemn him.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Just thought I'd check in. I'm still around; watching. I'm uncertain of my thoughts toward Nogrod. The inexplicably random part of me is calling for a closer look at him. Nobody addressed my maths question, and that makes me sad, since I don't know if I'm right or wrong about the whole probability thing.

The nice calm (read: exhausted) part of me says "Let's let it all wait until tomorrow. We'll think about Nogrod then." The awake part (read: I had caffiene recently) says "It already is tomorrow. It turned tomorrow while you were outlining your term paper in the studio as your screen-filler dried and you were trying to come up with next week's lesson plan. Just lynch him, see if he's a wolf trying to manipulate us, and if he's innocent, feel a bit bad and then take his advice as what it then would obviously be: that of an outspoken innocent. And if he IS innocent, you can take close looks at anybody that voted for him. Evidence is evidence no matter the circumstances under which it is gained."

As you can see, when I'm tired, the voices in my head argue as to what I ought to be thinking about villagers that everybody else thinks are suspicious. I'm rather of the opinion that I should ignore the caffiene, since it's also saying that I should cartwheel down my hall. I haven't seen anything of Nogrod to make me nervous. All of Nogrod's points seemed and still seem pretty valid. What's got me wondering at all is that Zali and Morm seem so worried. Maybe they've seen something I haven't.

Which is why, after this meandering post, I've decided to wait until after class tomorrow (I'll be back around 12:30 PM EST) to make any decisions. In theory, by that point I'll be a bit rested. Try not to kill anyone without me. But talk a lot. Especially the wolves. It would be very nice of you to come out and reveal yourselves. Please? It would be fun. You like fun. Right?

[Diamond18]

Well, I for one still have no idea who to vote for. Everyone seems equal parts suspicious and innocent. I would have to read over everything a few more times to find any clues, but my brain is slowly dying. Posts swim before my eyes as they glaze over. My eyes, not the posts. See? Even my participles are dangling in a weary fasion. Maybe I'll have some of that caffiene Fea is operating on....

I could do the totally random thing and throw out a vote for just anyone, or jump on the Nogrod bandwagon, but I am paralyzed with the fear that whatever I do will cast suspicion. Curses and bother. I think I will check back in the morning (or, as it is in the hallowed hereafter where the ghost of our beloved Mith dwells and dictactes the fates of us all, the evening) to see what other people with more initiative have decided.

[Nogrod]

I thought of opening some discussion. Well, I surely seem to have succeeded. Thanks people for your confidence!

But just to mend some quite clear misunderstandings.

Mormegil: Far too eager to lynch... It's only been 3 to 4 hours and he's worrying this...
Azaelia: ...call for lynch... came just a bit too early.

I think I said it quite clearly: we should consider this, and then make decisions: not on the third hour, but at the time anyone has to make her/his decision.

And Azaelia. See what I write here (in a paragraph you yourself quoted)

= Nogrod
There are so far 5 people (Diamond, Sleepy, Gil, Azaelia and Oddwen) who have not yet posted anything, due to the timezones, most probably. But if some people still stand on this kind of list as the day draws to a close?

So I was not forgetting that people have different timezones: on the contrary, I openly discussed the matter, as you see.

= Oddwen
Who says all the vocal people are helpful? And how do you know the wolves think the quiet ones are a "waste"? So early in the game? And again?

Vocal wolf is helpful for us - at least more helpful than a silent one. And a vocal villager is of help (if s/he's having some substance - I admit that "vocalness" was a wrong choice of a word here: "substantial" is better), as a silent one is not.

And I can't see any reason for a wolf to kill a silent villager during the night. They cause no threat to them, and can be left freefloating for the villagers to be worried about.

And for my "bloodlust" again. Don't be hypocritical about us not needing to vote today. You can think about your reasons for voting at the first minute. I think one should!

And if you search for a quick to hunger blood, take a look at Morm. f.ex.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod
Why this way?
1) These silent one's are like submarines: they become all the more nauseating and dangerous as the game goes on, and the number of players reduces.
2) The first day lynching is quite random anyhow, with this one, we could have at least something to stand with (not picking randomly the one who is two names down from oneself in the original list of players - I've seen that reasoning in a game!), and in the worst scenario, eg. there really being people who actually don't play, having them removed in the first day, not dragging them all the way to the more critical situations.
3) It would make the wolves posting during the first day: something that could turn out to be useful later on.
4) These silent ones are not good gaming company anyhow. And any specific RL hindrances should be declared in the admin. thread.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

His first three points can be seen as reasonable, but his fourth point is more of an attack on anyone who can't get on often.

Well, that was not intended like that. I have been in two games, and at both ones, there have been people who write max. once a day, and say only "Oh how sad X died... boohoohoo..." And that's it. All of it! I don't think anyone likes to play with that kind of players - then see reason 1). We seem to be having something like an example on Gil (again) today. If there are no other posts by him today, then you see what I mean with "silent" or "nonsubstantial"...

I really enjoy playing with someone, who only posts once a day, if there really is substance in that post (well, at least twice should of course be better).

[Oddwen]

Originally Posted by Noggin

there have been people who write max. once a day, and say only "Oh how sad X died... boohoohoo..." And that's it.

True...those people aren't helpful...


And dang, that's all I can think of to say.

[Sleepy Ranger]

The names Ranger, Sleepy Ranger... I'll have a mountain dew, shaken not stirred.

As it is the first day and seeing how someone has to die, don't worry you only live twice, and seeing how I doubt I'll be able to post much more today I've decided to shoot at random. Not that it really matters since I have a license to kill.

++Feanor of the Peredhil

Nothing personal, dear, just about the whole WWJ I thing you see... oh wait... I guess it is personal.

[Firefoot]

Points of interest about Morm (not enough time/slightly too lazy to do a complete synopsis):

True but know that I am.

Yes they would.

Morm would almost seem to be arguing his own wolvishness here.

Post 57 - His extreme defensiveness to Nogrod's accusations certainly catch the eye.

Post 66 - He's the one to point out the "Fea's a wolf" statement. Now, this would seem audacious for a wolf, but given his earlier "Yes they would" statement...

Post 77 - Changes his vote to Fea. See above.

Posts 139-40 - He goes back to his more typical, reasonable tone of posting. The switch more than anything catches the eye.

Fea:
I'm too uncertain of Nogrod's guilt for Morm's insistence to sit right. Please forgive me if I'm voting against an innocent or, Mith Forbid, a seer.

This is interesting - it would be a clever way of putting it if Morm were a wolf. She votes for him, but she puts emphasis on the point that he could be innocent or even the seer. Sort of a "I'm not convinced of this so you shouldn't vote for Morm."

Also of note from Fea's post is how closely she intertwines Morm and Nogrod, as if the two are inextricably related. In fact, her post would seem to point towards Nogrod's guilt - this time in a "I sort of suspect him, but don't focus on him" sort of way.

Now perhaps you all see why I said take care in looking at Fea's posts? She is undoubtedly laughing at all this right now because you can't take any straight meaning out of them.

[Firefoot]

Concerning Nogrod's math: I think it is a bit faulty, but I'm too lazy to go and figure out what it ought to be.

It's time for me to vote, and I am wholly undecided. Some thoughts:

B88 did contradict himself on the point of morm, as morm pointed out. He seems fairly eager to get some control in this game, but it seems like I remember that being fairly normal for him. Possibly a vote here, although I am reluctant at this early stage to vote out one of the most substantially-posting players.

Diamond went pretty far into a defense of herself because of the accusation based on her name. I'm not sure it means anything, but I have noticed that newcomer wolves are sometimes overly defensive. I'm not sure this applies here since she sounded fairly even-minded through all of it.

True to form, Gil-Galad has said virtually nothing.

I don't think that Nogrod merits lynching yet.

Shoot, I'm out of time. I highly doubt I'll be on again, and wish I didn't have to make this vote in haste:

++Gil-Galad

About as random as anything, I guess, and with nothing else to go on on the first day, the least helpful players can go first...

[Oddwen]

++SLEEPY RANGER

Because I don't really want to vote for Nogrod - and he's jumping in with a vote...though so did Fea. And he voted for Fea. Hmm.

[JennyHallu]

Hi guys!

Sleepy, don't shake that! You'll get everybody sticky!

++Sleepy Ranger, for shaking his soda.

OK...now to business.

--Sleepy Ranger

Nogrod, still stirring the pot, I see? In a previous incarnation I seem to remember you got much the same response to your first day's Lynch the Quiet Ones call...a general "Huh? Now? WHY?" from across the village. It makes you look guiltier than Lady MacBeth, scrubbing her hands.

But, as I have seen you do this before, and know the outcome of that particular village, I'm inclined to believe--for now--that you aren't a wolf. I'll be keeping an eye on you, definitely.


Gil-Galad...I really wish you would say something more substantial. I haven't decided if I'm going to vote for you today, but I'm certainly inclined to. I'll need a good reason why not.


As for the rest of you...honestly, how much can one be expected to tell in one day? None of you really look suspicious, but it's rather soon to tell, don't you think? I'll be keeping my eyes open, but I'm at work and my focus won't be complete.

++Gil-Galad
unless something happens to make me change my mind.

[Boromir88]

A bit of a contradiction. You compliment my deduction and later say I've posted nothing of substance. My friend verbosity does not equate to substance. Now my dear Boro do you care to explain.~mormegil

Ok, an honest mistake, I had forgotten about what you pointed out to Nogrod because your first couple posts were pretty much mumbo bull. But, I admit it was a contradiction, see I admit when I'm wrong, I like people who do.

So he's the voting so far (though of course there are retractables):

Nogrod: 2 (mormegil, Azaelia)
Feanor: 1 (sleepy)
Gil-galad: 1 (Firefoot)

His first three points can be seen as reasonable, but his fourth point is more of an attack on anyone who can't get on often. Despite his overeagerness to get the silent ones I'd hesitate voting for him (at this point at least). I feel this move on his part is too wreckless for a wolf. But still Nogrod has raised a few warning flags, yet, for me it is too early to make a desicion that can comdemn him.~Kitanna

That makes you look more innocent then guilty, so for today I won't be crying for you lynching.

Which means I'll probably be voting for one of these remaining people:

Kuruharan
mormegil
Feanor
Sleepy
Oddwen
Nogrod
Gil-galad

Kuruharan and mormegil I'm willing not to go after today. It very well could be that one of them is a wolf, but I'll let them go today, for their typical logical input.

Feanor is an interesting one, she's going to play the same whether she's a wolf or an innocent, which makes her dangerous (if she's a wolf). I made a mistake saying morm hasn't posted anything of worth, but it's no mistake saying Feanor hasn't posted anything accept talking about the voices she hears in her head.

Sleepy, not much to go on with him, and I have no particular reason that stands out why I should vote for him. Oddwen same way, has contributed and nothing that sticks out as a "Here's your wolf sign."

Nogrod, I still have the same feeling. As mormegil pointed out we were about 4 hrs into the day and he's already talking about people who haven't posted yet. He says he was just trying to get discussion, which I think is reasonable, but is it innocent trying to be helpful, or is he being the clever wolf poller?...trying to see where the village stands and make his plan with his buds?

Gil-galad, will stay the same from beginning to end. The wolves most likely will keep him around because he'll be an easy target if one of them ever get in trouble. Which means if we want him gone we have to lynch him, but even if he is the same Gil, as long as he stays around and casts his vote and helps in that way then I don't see a reason to lynch him. The thing with Gil that always gets me worried is he's like Fea, only worse. He'll stay the same whether wolf or innocent and you can never put a finger on him.

So my vote will probably be either for Nogrod, Feanor, or Gil-galad...unless there's drastic changes.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor

"Fea's a wolf."

I know this isn't in context but fellow villagers don't be afraid to take this at face value. She's a magnificent bluffer if a wolf.