WWJ VI: Return to Midsomer Mawlin - Kill me again

[Nogrod]

= Boromir88
So, the first order of business with 3 wolves amongst 13 players means there's an approximate 1/4 ratio.

This I find both intriguing and most fun. So from every randomly picked four people, we will have one wolf listed with them. That's the probability law. And I know, that this "spreading the first day vote" -tactics, kind of clings to just this fact.

It's quite easy to form a group of four from us lot. And still everytime, it would turn out one wolf by the probabilities.

So if I just say, as a way of probing, that both Feanor and Boromir have been very happy to go on making dire accusations, I could have formed a group of two: meaning that there is a 50% chance of another one of them being a wolf! And add Kitanna to that group of accusers, we have a group of three, and so 75%! That same of course applies, if I say, that me and Jenny have played our first ever two games together, so we form a 50% chance to you others - as do Oddwen and Kuruharan, whose names both end with the letter "n" etc.

For this kind of reasons too, I would be sticking more happily to this "not participating" -tactics as a first reason to go on with the votes this first evening.

There are so far 5 people (Diamond, Sleepy, Gil, Azaelia and Oddwen) who have not yet posted anything, due to the timezones, most probably. But if some people still stand on this kind of list as the day draws to a close?

And a random spread-vote has one great problem in it. We risk lynching a vocal (and thence possibly helpful) villager with a probability of 3/4. That's just too much for us villagers, and would suit the wolves just fine... (they won't be wasting their time, during the nights, on the silent ones)