Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

And finally....someone (Eonwe, I think) raised the question of whether the Lovers could win only together, or if they could also win individually as members of their own group (villagers or wolves). I believe the former is the case, but I'd like this clarified by our dead Prophet, too, please. (Lalaith)

The Law from the Mod God states:

The Lovers will die together--if one is lynched, or killed by the Werewolves, or struck dead by the Mod God, the other shall join him in the gloom of underworld. They shall win if they are left together with but one person, be the survivor innocent or guilty.

[tar-ancalime]

OK, I believe the technical term for this post is "ginormous." I haven't looked at today's posts yet so I apologize if we've already decided not to do this, but I've gone through yesterday's posts and summarized Anguirel's posts, as well as others' posts that mention him.

Here's the data dump:

Anguirel:

#13 in character; anybody see any hidden messages?
#21 accuses Kath and Eomer but doesn’t seem serious; says dancing spawn has made a good point (referring to thinking of the “innocent” lover as a Cobbler, perhaps)
#37 comments on the suicidal votes
#51 says Samwise Gamgee’s case against Cailin is “patchy and bedraggled;” buys into the (completely unfounded, in my opinion) idea that there’s a connection between Valier and tgwbs; refers to Garin as “bizarre”
#54 regarding lmp: “Still, stone-cutter, I'm not a-liking your arbitrating tone of voice. ..”
#58 says (rightly, if you ask me) that it’s futile and counterproductive to focus on Lovers or Wolves
#59 reminds eonwe that the Lovers live and die together
#65 skewers Garin for his insistence that we should try to kill the Lovers in particular
#69 says he doesn’t trust Eomer; continues the interplay with lmp
#112 wants to save Garin; says Glirdan’s vote is suspicious
#115 asks Thinlomien not to vote for Garin
#118 votes for Glirdan

Others in regard to Anguirel:

Garin mentions him #24, #39 #73 for what that’s worth
Glirdan mentions him mid-rant #41 (“Seriously Ang, I’m in major agreement with you. We are the only sane people in this village.”)
Caranlondien mentions him #49; in regard to occupation only? or am i missing something?
lmp agrees with him about Samwise #52
eonwe thanks him for the reminder #60
Formendacil says he’s a “very keen player” and that he’s being more helpful than usual. Finds this odd. #64
lmp is conciliatory #67
Farael begins his misguided attack #70
Samwise defends him against Farael #71 and #74
Farael continues the offensive #72
Celuien mentions him #84; in-character only
Celuien says he’s helpful #86
Gurthang says he has seen a possible Seer hint that makes him suspicious of Ang #96
Farael votes for him #102
Caranlondien votes for him #108
Thinlomien replies to him #116; isn’t sure where her vote is going

Now, where does this get us? Several people have mentioned that they saw what might be Seer hints;Farael based his attack on what he thought were fake Seer hints. It may be that this is why Anguirel was chosen; it may be that he was chosen to set up Farael; it may be that Farael is a wolf who decided to exonerate himself with a double-cross: "But why would I go after him so strongly and then kill him that very night? I'd never be so bold!" Yeah you would.

Other theories? Anguirel had serious things to say about Samwise, lmp, and possibly Eomer. Could he have been on to something? Did he get something right, contributing to the wolves' idea that he was a Seer?

[tar-ancalime]

And now, yesterday's voting in chronological order:

Cailin-->Lalaith
"Because she is young, rich and beautiful and I just can't stand it."

tgwbs-->tgwbs
in some kind of nilpaurion emulation ceremony

Garin-->Garin
because he’s Garin?

Lalaith-->tgwbs
because he told her to

Eomer-->lmp
as part of his master plan

Kath-->Eomer
because we won’t have to worry about him if he’s dead

tar-ancalime-->Farael
because he is obscuring things

eonwe-->Garin
because he drew the wrong number in the village lottery


Celuien-->Garin
because of his bizarre reversals

lmp-->Eomer
because knowing is half the battle (“Knowing his status may be about the most useful thing that can be garnered out of Day One.”)

Glirdan-->Garin
because...why was that, exactly?

Farael-->Anguirel
for what he thinks is a fake Seer hint

Naria-->tgwbs
because he wants her to

Caranlondien-->Anguirel
because he’s “saying much while saying little”

Valier—>Glirdan;
she says it’s “hasty and safe.”

Thinlomien-->Glirdan
because “there’s something wrong with him”

Anguirel-->Glirdan
because of his vote for Garin

Formendacil-->tgwbs
to save Garin and Glirdan

Lhunadrawen-->Lalaith
“to make a stand”

Samwise-->Garin
to break the tie

Gurthang-->lmp
because...why was that, exactly?

dancing spawn-->eonwe
“because his reasons were just a bit too weird.”

[tar-ancalime]

Yeah, me again.

I finally got a chance to take a look at today's posts.

I don't think Ang's early mention of Kath has anything to do with anything. I assumed from the beginning that it was just Day 1 histrionics, and that's why in my summary I barely mentioned it. And now that he's been proven not to have been a Seer, it can't possibly mean anything. She hadn't spoken yet--he was pulling her name out of the air. She may well merit a closer look, but not for this reason.

Lalaith, you're right on here:

Firstly, we have two pairs operating here. One is a pair we are desperate to keep safe, the other most emphatically not...but it would be disastrous if we were to mistake one for the other. If an innocent ord spots what he thinks is suspicious pairwork, is it a good idea to bring this up publicly? Might this not alert the wolves to the identity of the Seer pair?

I've gotten in trouble for this in the past, but here goes again: if you think you know who the Seers are, for Varda's sake keep your trap shut! If you're right you're obviously helping the wolves by bringing it up; if you're wrong you're helping the wolves by adding a false element to the game. They can use it. They thrive on confusion.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Just now I'm most interested in what went on with Eomer and LMP yesterday. Does either of them (moreso Eomer on this front) wish to explain themself? I'm not saying they're wolves, I'm just somewhat suspicious, as any villager should be.

tar-ancalime, you make a fair point that Ang had some interesting things to say about me. And frankly, I'd probably have said the same regarding myself in the 'clutching at straws' atmosphere of day one. However, I'm less inclined to look at those who Ang accused directly. We're in a very experienced village, and I don't think the wolves would slip up like that on night one. Now, of course, I ahave just asked questions of Eomer and LMP, who were accused by Ang. However, my suspicions are not based on Ang's accusations, but rather on their suspicious actions. So, if you ask me, Lommy and Kath are probably innocent. And I am too, obviously.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Just another little one to agree with tar-ancalime: at this early stage just monitor any pairish action you think you see. This is helpful because, as t-a said, it prevents layers of falsehood building too readily but also because a longer observation period will allow you to gather more evidence and make it less likely you'll be accused and maybe lynched for making baseless accusations.

[Lalaith]

longer observation period will allow you to gather more evidence and make it less likely you'll be accused and maybe lynched for making baseless accusations

That's not the point, Samwise. The two Seers are the most important innocents. Ords being lynched are an occupational hazard, our priority is keeping the Seers safe for as long as we can.
I personally don't think any accusations about pairwork, however well-founded, should be made while both Seers remain alive.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Tar-ancalime has already gone through Anguirel's posts, but I want to do it my way, too.

Why was Anguirel killed? What did he say?

#21, pointed at Kath and Eomer.
"For one, I don't like the stamp of that musician fella."
"The varmint claims to have disguised a were-army of hedgehogs under green shells and hidden them in a turtle farm. What d'ye have to say to that, Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat Wandering Horde? Ha ha!" ~Ang

"I don't think Ang's early mention of Kath has anything to do with anything. I assumed from the beginning that it was just Day 1 histrionics, and that's why in my summary I barely mentioned it. And now that he's been proven not to have been a Seer, it can't possibly mean anything. She hadn't spoken yet--he was pulling her name out of the air. She may well merit a closer look, but not for this reason." ~tar-ancalime

Actually, at the time when Anguirel mentioned Kath, she had already spoken.

I think it's probable that the wolves don't want to waste their time for frame-ups when there are two Seers around. The sooner the wolves get rid of the Seers, the less incriminating information there is. Possibly makes Kath or Eomer look bad. However...

"You're going to have to trust in a dour, sensible sober man of arms like me." ~Ang

Did the wolves think this was a clue that he would have been a Seer? Maybe Anguirel wasn't killed because of the people he mentioned, but the way he talked.

#51, kind of defends Cailín, but doesn't think Samwise is necessarily a wolf because of his "patchy and bedraggled attack". Comments the possibility that there's something between Valier and TGWBS.

Lots of names there, but he doesn't really accuse any of them, so I don't think the wolves would have got scared because of that post.

#54, says that he had forgot lmp, doesn't like his "arbitary tone of voice".

#69, "But I don't trust the harper [Eomer] who accuses ye [lmp] one bit" ~Ang

This is the second time Anguirel mentiones Eomer with that kind of a tone. If Eomer is a wolf, he might have thought that Anguirel has dreamed of him.

#112, thinks Glirdan's vote for Garin is suspicious.

#115, defends Garin quite strongly.

Did the wolves think Anguirel had dreamed of Garin?

#118, votes for Glirdan


Quite a lot of this speaks against Glirdan. Is Glirdan a wolf who thinks Anguirel was a Seer who had dreamed of him? For now, I think Glirdan has been acting like he'd usually act, though.

Okay, there's a possibility that the wolves didn't think that Anguirel was a Seer, but killed him for some other reason instead. However, I'd assume that the wolves are trying to eliminate the Seers asap. and something that Anguirel said caught their attention.