Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Thinlómien]

Ah! And it's so interesting to find out that Valier doesn't eat sheep. Maybe she prefers humans? :P

I'm a bit worried about spawn. Why, you might ask. I agree that she's been sensible and convincing. And that's the problem with her. I'm worried that I trust her and I'm worried that other people trust her as well. If she's a wolf or a lover, we're in a big bad trouble, if the game continues like this concerning suspicions towards her.

[Formendacil]

Okay, first off... let me say:

"I told you so!"

No, I did. I said that Garin was playing perfectly to form, and was an Ordo. You didn't believe me, ergo, he is dead.

Anyway, moving on from this moment of ego to the death of Anguirel, I find it a heartening choice on the part of wolves. Not to dishonour Anguirel's memory or anything, but the fact that the wolves only got an Ordo last night is encouraging. Too many of these games end in a Wolvish victory because the Seer died right away.

That said, I'm not sure that analysis of Anguirel yesterday will help us a lot. Personally, I'm not the best analyser, so maybe I'm not the one who should be making this judgement, but it didn't seem to me that Anguirel left a lot of hardcore suspicions- unless one counts the Hedgehog King.

As for looking at yesterday's votes, I'm interested to see what people come up with, but I'd be hesitant about using them to convict people. I believe that TGWBS has said that we have nine people who voted for Garin? If so, then that's half the village. We could have all four Werewolves hiding in there, and still have a greater chance of taking out one of the Village Team.

The point has also been made already (my apologies, I forget by whom) that the wolves may very well have not been around to vote at the end of the day, it being a Day 1.

Personally, I'm hesitant to accuse anyone based on the time of their vote. Lhuna, for example, has been suspected of wolvery in every game she's played (albeit incorrectly each time), but because of the timezones, she's typically an early voter. In this game, because of advantageous timezones, she's naturally going to be voting near the end.

Oh, and speaking of Lhuna, I find the idea of her and me being the Lovers to be... amusing. I wouldn't have put it past Nilp to match the two of us up...

I'll be back in an hour or two with more thoughts...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gurthang, what are you talking about? No-one's saying so-and-so can't be a wolf. We're trying to determine likely wolf behaviour! We have to place a certain degree of trust in some people. If someone has a good voting record and speaks a lot of sense, and is helpful in tracking wolves, then it speaks in their favour somewhat.

Of course they could still be a wolf, but we are meant to weigh up evidence. If a wolf is not likely to take a certain course of action then it is likely that someone taking said course is not a wolf.

Likely, not definitely. We can't suspect everyone equally.

Anyway, another thought. Someone pointed out (with good reason) that the wolves can afford to lose one of their number in order to take out the Seer. So if Glirdan is a wolf then it's entirely feasible for the wolf-team to kill Anguirel (who voted for Glirdan) and let Glirdan fend for himself.

So, Glirdan....you're a wolf.

Farael, Kath and Lalaith all make fair defensive points. I'm still watching them.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Eomer

So why all this talk of a set-up of Kath? Both Lalaith and Cailín mention that the death of Anguirel so obviously leads back to Kath that it must be a set-up.

Huh?

I find that funny, too. I'd like to point out that not all Nightly deaths are frame-ups. The wolves want to find the Seers, and since there are two of them now, it's even more important for the lycans to quickly get rid of the them. I just don't understand why wolves would see so much trouble in framing someone up. Anguirel might have been killed because of him defending Garin or whatever, but it's weird that these two say that the wolves obviously set Kath up. Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused. Just one more thing about this:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Well, he's not a Seer, so it seems like a set-up.

So, if Anguirel had been a Seer, it wouldn't have been a set-up and we'd be all questioning Kath with good reasons? The fact that Anguirel was an ordinary villager instead of a Seer doesn't chance the wolves' motives to kill him. They didn't know who he was.

I must say, though, that defending Garin so strongly hinted to Anguirel's possible Seerishness more than mentioning Kath. I just wonder the talk of the 'frame-up'.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Lalaith, if wolf-Kath had killed Anguirel then it would not look obvious, considering that Anguirel had accused me in like manner and actually voted for Glirdan. Why should it lead back to Kath at all? Have you mentioned how it seriously leads back to me or Glirdan?

And that's a good point, too.

I need to vote soon. I shall now go to do some serious rereading...

[Valier]

Thin I was not counteracting you ragingly! I said I would look at who voted for Glirdan after I did. I was surprised to see you had voted for him as well. I think we tend to agree on most points( except my innocence) and this time you probably got the same feeling of weirdness about Glirdan. I just don't see why you always think me to be a wolf. No offence to Glirdan, but in most games he is strange and in this one he has a change of heart and talks more using big words to garnish his posts. Eonwe's vote is unacceptable! Not because it is for me, but Eonwe is always lacking in posts and reason, which makes it hard to tell when he is a wolf. After I just mentioned his weirdness he very randomly votes for me. I can't help think he is a wolf that tends to panic.

Thin so I see you found my subliminal message! I was simply implying that I don't eat any meat. I am way to sweet for that! *smiles sweetly* I am strictly a herbivor. I thought you might see that and believe me THIS time of my innocence.

[Lalaith]

I think this talk of frame-ups, alleged or otherwise, is just smoke and red herrings.
Earlier on today, I said:

I think the wolves are more interested in finding Seers than in framing anyone, right now

I will be basing my vote at least partly on this premise.

the wolves guessed that Anguirel was a Seer based on his defence of Garin. In which case (perhaps) the people who voted in a certain way are completely off

Unfortunately I think this is true, which doesn't give me as much guidance as I'd like.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Lhuna

If I had voted for one, I would have been a bandwagoning wolf. Now that I chose not to vote for either, I'm a noncomittal werewolf.

Is this a confession - that you're a wolf whatever you do, eh? You know, as far as I know there hasn't been much suspicion of Samwise who 'climbed a Garin bandwagon'. That's because he saved us from a possible death of two innocents.

I could buy it that you're stubborn enough to vote the one you want to even if there's a tie, but that doesn't match with your new, more apologetic behaviour.


Since post #149 (by Samwise) other people have made good points of Lhuna. When I add them to my case (#164), I find you the most wolvish villager toDay.

++Lhunardawen

Originally Posted by Eomer

Listen to the wise words of Spawn, she knows all about set-ups and how those who design them get what's coming to them in the end.

Thanks.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Is this a confession - that you're a wolf whatever you do, eh? You know, as far as I know there hasn't been much suspicion of Samwise who 'climbed a Garin bandwagon'. That's because he saved us from a possible death of two innocents.

I could buy it that you're stubborn enough to vote the one you want to even if there's a tie, but that doesn't match with your new, more apologetic behaviour.

It does look bad for Lhuna, I'll grant, but I wonder if we ought to maybe be taking a closer peek at Samwise? I don't seriously suspect him, but the possibility is there that, in defending Garin, in believing him innocent, he was acting on Wolfish knowledge... After all, who, in all this village, knows who all are Wolve and who are Not? Just the wolves.

That said, I don't seriously harbour doubts about Samwise. But it is something that we shouldn't completely forget, either.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Anyway, it would be utter madness for the Lovers to hint. What could they possibly benefit?

I agree with you entirely, and if you or any of our experienced, greatly intelligent players is the Lover, then I would say that hints are completely unlikely.

That said, human nature is such that if one of more foolhardy, less-experienced players was a Lover, it's entirely possible that they could deliberately hint, not thinking through the situation as best they might.

So I'd keep an eye out for Loverly Pairs anyway... They won't be casting suspicion on each other (except as a decoy), and one of them may possibly let something slip.

[littlemanpoet]

Up to #213 now....

Originally Posted by Formendacil

After all, who, in all this village, knows who all are Wolve and who are Not? Just the wolves.

Actually, there's a strong possibility that the Ordo-Lover also knows the identity of all 4 werewolves, told so by the Werewolf-Lover. Worth keeping in mind, I dare say.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Up to #213 now....

Actually, there's a strong possibility that the Ordo-Lover also knows the identity of all 4 werewolves, told so by the Werewolf-Lover. Worth keeping in mind, I dare say.

That's a really interesting thought...

Are they allowed to do that?

More pertinently, is there any way we could hope for the village to extract those names from the Villager Lover?

Originally Posted by Cailín

Formendacil - your thoughts about Thinlomien are similar to mine. However, and I hope you do not take offence, I would prefer to vote for one of my male suspects.

Offence? Why should I take offence??? As long as I'm not that candidate, all is good.

I'm also not convinced by the Thinlómien case just yet. It's interesting, but there's not enough to go by just yet.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I think the wolves are more interested in finding Seers than in framing anyone, right now

I agree. I think we've been wasting time toDay... but let's not argue about whether we've been wasting time, because that will waste time, too

Okay, I think LMP is looking suspicious. His attack on Eomer and Lhuna as the lovers has come across pretty strong. But I'm not inclined to think their behavior suggests them as lovers. Despite what I said yesterDay about keeping our eyes open for both wolves and lovers, I think that evidence for lovers will be harder to collect. I doubt that the lovers would want to do anything to connect themselves with one another, and they would at least hide their defenses of each other within larger lists of suspected/not suspected.

I'm also somewhat skeptical about TGWBS. Much as he may idolize our dear prophet, his continuous declaration that he is a wolf has so far worked. Yes, he did come close to being lynched yesterDay. But he wasn't. I just think we should keep our eyes on him, and not definitively rule him out.

And finally,

Originally Posted by Thinlomien

I'm a bit worried about spawn. Why, you might ask. I agree that she's been sensible and convincing. And that's the problem with her. I'm worried that I trust her and I'm worried that other people trust her as well. If she's a wolf or a lover, we're in a big bad trouble, if the game continues like this concerning suspicions towards her.

I agree. Helpfulness doesn't rule someone out as a possible wolf.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Formendacil

[Cailín]

The sheer size of this village makes it almost impossible for one with limited time available to keep up, and I think most of us are very eager to simply vote for the loudest. This makes it extremely easy for quiet, subtle wolves to hide. However, I fear nothing can be done about it right now – except we need to lynch some people, fast. *that sounds rather…bloodthirsty*

I shall just look into the people drawing attention for now. Glirdan previously analysed the very quiet, and found little to nothing. Voting records will tell us more soon, I hope.

As for speculating why Anguirel got lynched, it was probably more of a why not? question, though I cannot get rid of the feeling that the wolves thought to have caught a Seer.

Anyone else in favour of lynching another guy tonight? Rid the wolves of the male population and increase our chances of finding the Lover soon? Heheh. I bet the Ordo-Lover will vote for a female player tonight. So, starting with the girrrls:

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

I cannot play a game without suspecting her. However, she has made a great deal of sense. To answer your question, Spawn:

So, if Anguirel had been a Seer, it wouldn't have been a set-up and we'd be all questioning Kath with good reasons? The fact that Anguirel was an ordinary villager instead of a Seer doesn't chance the wolves' motives to kill him. They didn't know who he was.

No. As I said before, Kath could not possibly be a wolf thinking the Seer found her. Ang didn’t pursue her further, did he? He would have had he been a suicidal Seer. I think it’s the Seer hints, combined with the righteous defence of Garin that got them thinking. I’m merely speculating, however. Like you, I’m trying to make sense of it all.

Kath

Kath has over the past few games specialised in the act of being suspicious, so I tend to be lenient. Her vote for Eomer resembles… something, which makes me immediately alert. On the other hand, Eomer has history against him. Since it is Day 1, the vote doesn’t look too weird.

There’s been little input from Kath toDay. I cannot suspect her on so little evidence. However, I shall be watching her closely.

Lhunardawen

Cases against Lhuna have been made a lot toDay already. I sympathise with most arguments, however, I think she is blamed too much for leaving the tie. She knew Dancing Spawn was still around, as were a few others. It’s hard to believe she meant to orchestrate a double lynch. Her vote was relatively safe, and little explained, but not extraordinary. Maybe I am misled, but Lhuna does not seem the most wolvish. Probably she is merely adjusting from not coping with timezone diseases.

Lalaith

Well, on first sight Lalaith strikes me as an ordinary. I voted for her yesterDay… admittedly, because I wished to cast my vote for someone 1) who had been around already 2) who would certainly be around later 3) by whose reaction I could somehow maybe find something on them, while I normally would just allow her to slip beneath the radar. Of course, she handled the situation perfectly, as may be expected from an experienced player. Her vote for TGWBS seems not so unreasoned as Lhuna would have it appear. TGWBS would be just the sort of person trying to get away with saying “I’m a wolf” as much as possible, just to be able to gloat later on.

Her posts toDay are rather general, helpful in a non-commiting way. She seems a typical ordinary. I don’t suspect her too much.

Thinlomien

Well, Lommy appears on the list because she’s such a genuinely nice girl. Ho-hum. She spent the first day agreeing with others… She seems to consider all sides of the argument, which is a very Dutch and unproductive way to go about things. Then suddenly she follows Anguirel, voting Glirdan whom she did not suspect before. Later on, she states she made a wrong decision. Did she try to align herself with an innocent? Convenient that Ang died last night, then. This is odd though. And really very nice, too.

Today she considers Lhuna’s case, and points our attention towards the silent ones. She further says nothing particularly interesting, except for a slight concern she might be trusting Spawn too much (and don’t we all?). I’m a bit worried about you, Thin.

The other girls / women did not make close examining for various reasons. Tar-ancalime I find, makes good sense and contributes to the discussion. Celuien I need around for therapeutical reasons. Besides, she has not done anything truly suspicious – her vote for Garin is incriminating, but hardly wolvish. I’m still undecided about newcomer Caranlondien and Valier is her usual annoying self. Naria has said too little. As always.

[Formendacil]

Lot's of interesting thoughts there, Cailín. Your remarks about Thinlómien quoted just below gave me a thought:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Well, Lommy appears on the list because she’s such a genuinely nice girl. Ho-hum. She spent the first day agreeing with others… She seems to consider all sides of the argument, which is a very Dutch and unproductive way to go about things. Then suddenly she follows Anguirel, voting Glirdan whom she did not suspect before. Later on, she states she made a wrong decision. Did she try to align herself with an innocent? Convenient that Ang died last night, then. This is odd though. And really very nice, too.

Today she considers Lhuna’s case, and points our attention towards the silent ones. She further says nothing particularly interesting, except for a slight concern she might be trusting Spawn too much (and don’t we all?). I’m a bit worried about you, Thin.

There was a wolf once, back in a village that some of you may remember (Amanaduial, in my game, XVI), who was new at the game, and tried to take a very balanced view of things, looking at all sides of the situation, and consequently being accused of flip-flopping, and ultimately got lynched.

Is it possible that we have a similar case here? I'm inclined to think not, since Thinlómien has a few games of experience under her belt from the Junior string of games. However, she also claims that is her normal playing style. If so, it would be excellent cover for a Werewolf. Alas, I have not played with her, and I've barely dipped my toes into the games I've not played, so I do not know if she's playing to her normal standard or not...

On to another topic:

The interesting thought occured to me that the three main candidates up for lynching last night were male: Garin, Glirdan, and TGWBS. Is it possible, that in the flurry of tying/tie-breaking votes there at the end that one of our female players was trying to save- or did save- her lover?

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Valier is her usual annoying self.

I totally take offence to this! Saying I'm strange or weird ok...but ANNOYING! I shall go pout now! *POUTS*

[littlemanpoet]

Up to #214....

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Okay, I think LMP is looking suspicious. His attack on Eomer and Lhuna as the lovers has come across pretty strong.

Ahem. Please note that I was asked for an explanation of my Day 1 vote, and gave it. That explanation is not best read as an attack upon Lhuna and Eomer as Lovers, but as my rationale for yesterDay's vote.

I'll say now that there are a few individuals that have been so concise and well reasoned, and suspecting the same people I suspect, that I consider them to be (for the rest of toDay) above suspicion. They are: Eomer, Spawn, & tar-ancalime.