Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Lalaith]

Quickly popping in here -
I just want to say that I don't think we should lynch anyone before they've had a chance to say something. The reason should be obvious....

[SamwiseGamgee]

Agreed in principle, Lalaith, but sometimes that's just not possible because of the timezones. I guess what I'm saying is that an early vote shouldn't necessarily be seen as damning.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You're right Lalaith.

More fun with maths (much simpler this time):

We should begin the double-lynches. They ensure that more kills are made by the village than the wolves. They ensure that we have greater chances of catching wolves.

And my picks for today, though I agree we should wait to hear from them, are Kath and Lhuna.

I don't think games should include double-lynchings, but since we are 'blessed' with them, it would be folly to not maximise their benefits.

[Cailín]

You know, Eomer has a point about the double-lynching thing. I mean, who says it is beneficial for the village to drag things out? The wolves only would have more time to confuse us.

That said, I don’t wish to jump to conclusions yet. There are many villagers we still need to hear from and this is becoming a rather one-sided story if you ask me. One third of us is now guilty, and Lhuna and Kath ain’t enough to cover that.

[SamwiseGamgee]

this is becoming a rather one-sided story if you ask me. One third of us is now guilty, and Lhuna and Kath ain’t enough to cover that. (Cailin)

What do you mean by that Cailin? I'm not accusing you or anything, I just don't catch your meaning.

I can see Eomer's point, in that there's no advantage to us drawing this affair out, but what if we've been wrong and Kath and Lhuna are both innocent? From Spawn's accusations of them both we can be fairly sure neither of them is the seer, but losing two ordos would be a major blow nonetheless, much moreso than losing only one. We could potentially lose three innocents (one of which could be the seer) by daybreak tomorrow. Are we ok about that? It's an idea with merit, this I do not deny, but it's a risky one, and we should all be aware of that before we commit to a course of action.

[Celuien]

So spawn was one of the Seers...

Three possibilities:

1. Kath and/or Lhuna are wolves who killed spawn for her suspicion of them.
2. Evening the male/female ratio, as suggested previously.
3. Wolves setting up an innocent Kath/Lhuna and happened coincidentally to find a Seer.

I agree with the double lynching plan, though not with TGWBS's version of lynching all males. Both because of the previously mentioned problems with numbers of remaining villagers and the possibility of killing the remaining Seer,
but also because it diverts attention from my side of the divide too well. I would be quite surprised to not find at least one female wolf.

Originally Posted by lmp on Farael

1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise.

I'm inclined to think this is the case.

I'm off to reread Lhuna's posts.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

What do you mean by that Cailin? I'm not accusing you or anything, I just don't catch your meaning.

I was trying to imply that of the nine (now ten) people who have posted so far, I would not be surprised at least one of them has their own hidden agenda.

I can see Eomer's point, in that there's no advantage to us drawing this affair out, but what if we've been wrong and Kath and Lhuna are both innocent? From Spawn's accusations of them both we can be fairly sure neither of them is the seer, but losing two ordos would be a major blow nonetheless, much moreso than losing only one. We could potentially lose three innocents (one of which could be the seer) by daybreak tomorrow. Are we ok about that? It's an idea with merit, this I do not deny, but it's a risky one, and we should all be aware of that before we commit to a course of action.

Well, that's why we should wait for all people to have a say first, as far as that is possible. But it is unlikely - if the wolves indeed are smart - that suspicion of either Lhuna or Kath would disappear tomorrow if it does not toDay. By lynching them one at the time, all we would do is buy the wolves another Night to kill more innocents and we'd be in the same position with less allies left.

I hope you see my point: unless Lhuna or Kath is the other Seer (which is almost impossible), the Seer would not be sacrificing him/herself to save one of them and one more Night is not beneficial for either them or the village. The villagers are by now so suspicious of the both of them that unless someone comes along with groundbreaking theories or evidence, they are going to end up lynched anyway. And then a double-lynching is better than one.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I've just gone back through some of the earlier posts by Lhuna and Kath and have come to the conclusion that maybe a double lynch would be the correct action for today. I want to make it clear, though, that while I support such a course of action today I do not necessarily think it should be the norm from now on.

Also, I said we could end up with three dead innocents by daybreak, but that's only one eventuality. There are many possibilities, too many for me to list, but her's the best possible scenario: we could have three dead wolves by daybreak. How? Well, there are other ways it could work but: Kath and Lhuna are wolves, but not lover wolves (that's two dead wolves). By night the first wolf vote cast is for the ordo-lover. That would kill the third wolf and rid us of the lovers. So, on closer inspection Eomer's plan is a good 'un.