Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Kath]

Well, well, how nice of you all to plan my death while I'm not around Obviously I don't agree with you killing me but there is little point in proclaiming my innocence as that never goes down well.

As for spawn and her accusations of me, I'll have to go back and have a re-read as I hadn't noticed they were that strong until Eomer and Farael started pointing them out.

On the subject of double-lynches, I dislike them whether I'm one of the prospective lynchees or not, and would prefer not to have them, at least not this early where there is still such a high chance that we would lynch two innocents in one go.

TGWBS's idea about lynching all the males to find the Lover and possibly a wolf is a little dangerous, especially since it again involves double lynches. If all the wolves are female (as someone suggested) it adds even more danger as only the deaths of the ordo Lover and one wolf would be gained, leaving a pretty low ratio of villager to wolves. (That last bit was based on guesswork, if someone could provide the actual maths I'd be very grateful.)

As for Lhuna, I agree that spawns' death makes her look bad (and yes myself too) and I'll take a look at the posts made by her and in regard to her.

So, I'll be back later with a post when I've got all these things clear in my head.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Actually Kath, I didn't refer to Spawn's accusations at all. I just agreed with the people who had already analysed Spawn's posts. Your name cropped up here, there and everywhere; and I had already suspected you.

I don't like double-lynchings either — that's why I've often campaigned against them. But since we have them at our disposal...

Use double-lynchings and 67% of deaths are decided by the village and only 33% by the wolves.

Yes, we lose innocents quicker, but our chances of catching wolves increase.

[the guy who be short]

Suit yourself guy, suspect me as you please... there are a few more "reminders", read up to my post if you want to see where I found them. Then you can go check by yourself.

Oh, apologies. I left out, what, one post? That brings the total up to 4 extremely vague mentionings of somebody being discussed anyway. Quick! Lynch her!

And here's the one post you mention, Farael, that I left out, because I thought it so trivial.

I'll say it once again, Kath did post before Anguirel made the "Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat" post. I don't know if that makes much difference, but it's good to keep the facts straight. Post 193, spawn

This is what you base your accusations on!

Answer me, if spawn had dreamt of Kath and not Lhuna, why she voted for the latter?

Yes, all of you pushing for a Kath lynching... you're just making it worse for yourself. We innocents aren't blind, you know. You can't make things up and expect us to accept them.

Call me shrill if you wish. When people dare to influence the village into accepting illogical arguments, I shall be shrill.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

We innocents? So you're not a wolf anymore?

[Kath]

I know some of you hate it when I do this and I'm sorry to redo spawn but I need it straight in my own head. This is only Day 1, I'll look at Day 2 and what's been said so far toDay a little later, so if there are things I've asked which seem obvious now then don't fret, I'll pick up on them later. However, obviously I have read the posts from the following Days, so it's all a bit mixed up.

Spawn:

Day 1:
Some bewailing of Nilp and them some good advice about the voting and saying that people should act same way as usual.

Reminds that bandwaggoning is not a crime if you suspect the person. A fair point that many forget. Also asks for reasoned votes, even on Day 1, though she realises that can be hard.

Says it’s better to go after the wolves than the Lovers. Well that’s true but perhaps then the wolves may have thought she was the ordo Lover since she seems to be trying to stop people looking for them. Someone said that the wolves knew who the Lover in their own ranks was. How would they know that unless the wolf Lover had told them, and where would be the point in that? I don’t see that as a very likely course of action. I think the wolves are probably looking just as hard for the Lovers, and perhaps thought they had found one.

Argues against Valier and Guy’s being Lovers, as it seems silly that they would leave messages since whichever was a wolf, their fellow wolves would pick up on it. Again tries to dissuade people from Lover-talk. She does it so reasonably that no one but Garin seems to argue against it, but if the wolf who is the Lover had reason to think his/her partner was in the running for the Night’s kill, he/she may have picked up on these points and so suggested spawn instead.

Looks like she’s supporting Lalaith and Cailín, or actually perhaps just Cailín. Either way it’s in response to Samwise, saying his case is undetailed and unfounded.

Thought my vote odd as the reasoning was the same as that of someone in a past game, and because she thinks Eomer is a good player to keep around if innocent. While this is true, it is the not knowing whether he is innocent that causes the problems, as he is a formidable opponent. The only way to know his role is either to lynch him, the wolves to kill him or the Seer to dream of him and reveal his role. The wolves are unlikely to kill him as he can generate mass confusion on his own, the Seer is unlikely to reveal anything until they have at least two of the four wolves if not three, especially now that we only have one Seer and not two. Therefore lynching him is the only viable solution. It sounds harsh I know, but I’m scared of him!

Agrees with Lhuna and votes Eonwe since the tie is not longer there.

Picks Samwise up on a possible wolvish slip.

So, if we're trying to work out what her Day 1 dream was it was possibly Valier, Guy, Lalaith or Cailín, which leads me to think that these four are likely innocents. However, I saw nothing there to indicate that she was the Seer, and it's only by really stretching what she said that I can find anything hinty in there.

And having just seen her first post on Day 2, she was making a case against Glirdan.



Farael:
Day 1:
Actually starts off the Day trying to make a case against Ang. Well there’s a thing! Was this ever brought up? (Guess I’ll find out in a couple of pages). And if so why was it dropped? Oh and he mentioned wanting to confuse the village. I think that’s likely an in-role comment, but still.

Was still suspicious of Ang even later in that Day with Garin’s odd behaviour.

Votes Ang, and follows with an apology, which is exactly what Lhuna was accused of doing Day 2, yet no one mentioned Farael’s doing the same thing? Somethings odd there. Perhaps those focusing so much on Lhuna are trying to remove suspicion from Farael? It is possible that both are wolves and one is being used as scapegoat though.

That's all a bit farfetched I'll admit, but I just don't see why the suspicion surrounding him disappeared all of a sudden.


Lhuna:
Day 1:
Appears quite late due to timezones.

Thought Garin and Glirdan innocent. Some suspicion of Lalaith, Naria and Eonwe, with good reasoning for the first two, though she relies on feelings about the latter.

Votes Lalaith along with an apology to Garin if she’s wrong. I’ll grant this seems odd, but doesn’t she do it quite often?

It is very much against her that she did not break the tie, even with her principles and refusal to vote for someone she didn't find suspicious. Yet I wonder whether a wolf would go to such lengths and put themselves in a position where they are certain to be accused. It's possible yes, but is it really that probable? And yet with all these arguments against her I find myself leaning more and more toward the idea that it could be. Dang persuasive people! Right now, I'm switching between thinking her innocent and guilty every 5 minutes. In this 5 minutes, I'm on the innocent side.

That's it from me for now. Looking back at my ramblings it appears that I think spawn was killed due to her perhaps being the Lover, Farael is suspicious to me and I'm wondering why the suspicion on him was dropped, and while I can see the points against Lhuna right now I think her innocent. Oh, and I would rather not be killed thank you very much. Opinions welcomed!

And Eomer, one thing:

Knowing his status may be about the most useful thing that can be garnered out of Day One.

That’s from lmp. Wasn’t just me who had the idea that we needed to know what you are.

Ooh and Cailín <-- Look! I learned! Never again shall you see a Cailin from me, as promised

[Glirdan]

Alas for our deer Spawn!! May her soul rest in peace and aid us in our search for the Wolves.

Now to adress a few things.

Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?(Thinlo)

I like that question Thin. Definetly one that I'm thinking of at this point for both Ang and Spawn and for everyone else who gets attacked at Night.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I see no reason why Kath would be dreamt of on Night 2 after Day 1s proceedings. Unless Eomer had already been dreamt of and found innocent. Hmm.(TGWBS)

I must agree that I think the Seer's would have dreamed of the loudmouths first. However, I do see a reason for dreaming of Kath: her quietness. She (along with a few others amongst us) have been fairly quiet. Yes, that's how Kath normally is. Kath is intelligent and could get away with being a Wolf if she really tried and for that reason, as well as her quietness, I believe that it's quite possible the Seer's dreamed of her. However, I find a Lhuna dream much more likely.

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7(TGWBS)

I must ask you this: What makes you think that the Wolves will continue to systematically attack a female each Night?? I mean, they did attack Ang. We can't base our votes on something that we have no concrete proof on.

And a quick response to Glirdan. Don't play dumb with me, laddie! You know fine well what I was asking you. I'll say it again: If you are innocent, then why did the wolves not gleefully accuse you on Day Two, considering Anguirel voted for you? Seems very odd to me.(Eomer)

I have to options here: to either hide and make myself look more guilty, or to say straight up that I don't know....which I just did. So, as you see, I have no idea. Now, I realise that this is probably going to inciminate me more in your's (and many others) eyes, but I honestly don't know. Maybe they thought that I was in enough trouble that I'd end up getting myself lynched??

Now I'm going to go back through posts from Eonwe and Spawn from yesterDay as well as Day 1.

[Valier]

Just popping in. There is so much to read, two pages to be exact! I will take my time and read them through. I do think the majority of the village should come up with a strategy. Perhaps a double lynch is in order today. I am not so convinced of who the two lynchees should be yet. I don't think we should treat this like a good old witch hunt,or wolf hunt. Instead we should have a consensis of people we think should be lynched TODAY.

I think the idea of killing one gender to catch the lovers is interesting....but then again...I don't know! I will be back with hopefully something helpful and not annoying.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Glirdy

I must ask you this: What makes you think that the Wolves will continue to systematically attack a female each Night??

Well, the entire point of killing off the men is to get the Lovers. If the wolves kill a male, they simply make it easier for us to get rid of them. Then aid us.

Eomer: Sorry. I forgot my place for a moment.

Now, the impassioned plea.

If we are to adopt the double lynching scheme, it MUST be done TODAY. It cannot wait. Already there is a tiny chance - 6% - of failure if all the wolves are female. Waiting any longer to implement the plan means we will not have enough days to do so.


Not only does double-lynching men mean we will definitely catch the lovers, it also increases our chances of catching wolves, as Eomer rightly said.

Observe:

We lynch one person today. It is random. They have a 4/18, that is a 22% chance of being a wolf.

We lynch two people. There is a 14/18 x 13/17 chance of their being an innocent; that is, a 40% chance of being a wolf.

These are random chances, not real chances. In real life the wolves influence us, and lead us astray, a problem with four of them. By limiting who we vote for to the male gender, we reduce the randomness of the votes and minimise the wolvish influence, so that in real terms, the chance of catching a wolf is significantly higher.

Not to mention a 25% chance of grabbing the lovers today, or a 50% chance over two days.


I will reiterate, this is the FINAL day that this is realistically possible. It makes sense to accept it, as hard as it may seem, men. Embrace your suicidal tendencies for the greater good.