Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Cailín]

*weeps* Alas, alas, Eomer dead, and it is not even my fault. How terribly tragic and unfair.

Now why would Eomer be killed?

Mind you, he has been under some suspicion the past few Days and though he can be as much a threat as an ordinary, I am quite convinced they thought him the other Seer. That is great, because I am also almost certain he did that intentionally. He has mentioned the Seer often yesterDay - constantly seeming to bring it up while it was unnecessary - and he and Spawn seemed allies before (likely Eomer was her first dream; he would definitely be my first dream, too). It is as close to a Ranger as we can get.

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.

--

More after breakfast.

[tar-ancalime]

So far in this game, the too-obvious-to-be-true has been, well, true.

Anguirel's death really did point to Kath.

dancing spawn's death really did point to Lhuna.

Farael's attacks on Kath really were unfounded (or founded on insider knowledge, as opposed to the discourse of the game).

So, at the risk of stating the obvious,

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

[tar-ancalime]

from Lhuna:

I can't die without causing some confusion, of course, can I?

Let's see. Right now I think either Cailin or Elempi is the last Seer. If Elempi is, well, I guess that explains a lot. If it's Cailin, great job of hiding it!

But according to my source, it could also possibly be Naria. Hmm, definitely something to consider.

Obviously she was lying through her teeth in this post; but could there be a grain of truth in here? Could she really be giving us a summary of the wolves' thoughts on who is the second Seer? Obviously they thought last Night that Eomer was the most likely candidate, but Lhuna couldn't very well come out with that while claiming to be Eomer's Beloved, now could she?

What do y'all think? Are the wolves going to have to change their strategy because Lhuna just spilled the beans?

Alternatively, did Lhuna just give us the identities of the remaining wolves?

Or, as is probably the case, was she just making things up for fun?

[the guy who be short]

After a wolf knows it is going to die, its only aim is to sow confusion in the village. I would consider none of Lhuna's final information seriously; though some may be true, and lots will be false, we cannot know which is which. Better by far to analyse her - and Kath's - and yea, even Farael's - earlier posts.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

After a wolf knows it is going to die, its only aim is to sow confusion in the village. I would consider none of Lhuna's final information seriously; though some may be true, and lots will be false, we cannot know which is which. Better by far to analyse her - and Kath's - and yea, even Farael's - earlier posts.

While I take nothing that you say at face value, I think you're right about Farael for certain. He knew who all the werewolves are, and may have let something slip in his desperate aggression against Kath.

[Lalaith]

Aha! I found the accusation of tgwbs as lone male wolf - it was actually made by Lhuna, not Farael.

for tgwbs' plan...that's very silly. It's making me think that you are the sole male wolf, and the rest are females, so it would be okay for you to sacrifice yourself because you know that there will still be two female wolves left in the end - the other one being killed along with her lover.

What to make of this, I wonder? It sounds like she's making an accusation, almost...
But I agree that Farael's posts should be combed through carefully. I get the feeling he was past caring by the end, blurting out all sorts of things.

I'm trying to be as fair as I can to all suspects, and I'm still stuck on the first day voting problem.
When Lhuna voted, failing to break a tie, between Garin and Guy, we still had Samwise, Gurthang and spawn left to vote. It was in fact Samwise who broke the tie. Gurthang jumped in and voted without looking, and Spawn, with no more double-lynch to worry about, voted for Eonwe.
The next day, Lhuna actually says she's going to be looking hard at anyone who voted for tgwbs. Reckless behaviour indeed for a pair of wolves.

If only Guy hadn't been almost as febrile as Farael yesterday, I'd be writing him off as a probable innocent.

PS LMP, I'm sorry you misinterpreted me. I just said "three intelligent men", because you are, how is that male-bashing???

[Lalaith]

Continuing the spirit of fairness...

Could this be another attempt to seem helpful without really contributing anything? (Someone else mentioned this in reference to his analyses of Valier and Caranlondien, each of whom had posted about three times at the time of his investigations.)

Tar-a - Spawn had in fact asked someone to analyse the quiet ones and Glirdan offered to. I'm not disputing the rest of what you say...

[the guy who be short]

LMP - I have no idea why you've set yourself so hopelessly against me. The easy thing to do would be to suspect you, but to be honest, I consider you innocent. I know how you can be...

As for the Lovers, you seem to have it set in your mind that finding them would be a priority for the wolves. Not so. The Lovers aim is to survive together. This means that as long as the Villagers outnumbered the Wolves, the Lovers would be alligned with the Wolves against the Village.

In addition, it would be easier to find the lovers because there had to be one in the 8 men. What people did not grasp yesterday was that the plan was not a statistical substitute for analysis, but a supplement. I was confident, by analysis, of Gurthang and Eomer's innocence, so that the lovers would most likely be caught in two days.

As to why I wished to find the Lovers - as well as them being alligned against the village, I saw other strengths in the idea. Catching them would be easier than catching wolves because there had to be one amongst the men. And once we had the lovers, we would have a wolf, from which we could use analysis to find the others.

The fatal flaw of the plan that I did not notice, and I later acknowledged, was that it would enable the wolves to pick which women to pit their she-wolves against.

[the guy who be short]

Before I get any serious Wolf or Lover analysing done, I wish to put forward my thoughts on what's going on.

I still - obstinately, you may say - do not believe spawn dreamt of Lhuna. This may be because I didn't think so before, and I have not checked since. I'll need to look over this, but I recall there being only very tenuous arguments for this.

Farael attacked Kath to save Lhuna. Yes, I'm going over the obvious, but hear me out. Not only did he know Kath was a wolf, he did this to make himself look like the Seer so that the village would trust him. However, as his argument was so extremely poor, I thought him most likely to be a wolf. At least I was right in my belief that he was an enemy of the village.

There was suspicion on me before yesterday. It is interesting to note that Eomer - my most trusted ally yesterday, and the only one to speak for double lynchings, which, whatever you all may think, is still a good strategy statistically - died in the Night. Perhaps this is my ego flexing itself, but I think part of the reason may have been to destroy my support. I am confident that I am being set up.

Being suicidal, I don't much mind this. If I am being set up, those arguing for my death are most likely wolves. This helps me to find them.

If the village decides that I should die, I will comply and leave you, for I feel that as long as I live, I shall cause confusion. However, If it is the case, I wish to impose conditions. The accused are not usually allowed conditions, but I feel mine are so fair that to deny them would be a sign of wolvery.

If the village decides I am to be lynched, I want a double lynching. That's it. That's all my conditions. Simply because I know I am innocent, and I won't have a day go by without at least one potential wolf facing the gallows. Double lynching, whatever opponents may shriek, increase the village's chance of winning.

That is all. If you decide to lynch me, toDay or any other day, that condition will apply, unless I state otherwise.

[Cailín]

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

Agreed. Somehow, I can't believe we'd be that lucky thrice, but Glirdan definitely has been acting differently. Of course, Eomer was not the Seer, so it might all be a red herring. We can't ignore it either way and I shall be looking into Glirdan's posts as soon as possible. I generally got the impression from his previous posts that he was 'hiding' behind analysis, in other words, summing up dead people's posts.

Again, tar-ancalime, I think it is really no use to try and understand what Lhuna meant with her final posts. She intended to sow confusion and we'd be better off just ignoring her warped, twisted, wolvish statements. I think.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by me

and he and Spawn seemed allies before (likely Eomer was her first dream; he would definitely be my first dream, too).

Looking back, I am not sure where I saw that… Probably it was merely imaginary. Anyhow, that is not the point.

A few questions:

How about Glirdan? No known wolf did vote for him yet, neither Kath nor Lhuna ever attempted to portray him in a negative light… and why not, I wonder. Glirdan would have been an easy victim, considering the events of the past few days. This is indeed strange. I think he definitely belongs on any suspect lists.

TGWBS… I trust him and yet I do not. He absolutely refused to believe the Seers had dreamt of a wolf (we still cannot be sure, but I think it is now extremely probable Lhuna was indeed the second dream) and his Plan was far from flawless. On the one hand, I think a wolf would not be so stupid. On the other hand, I don't think TGWBS would be so stupid. But we all make mistakes and at least TGWBS stuck to his own convictions.

I am a bit suspicious of Lalaith. Could Lhuny's vote have been wolf-on-wolf? She did not pursue her suspicions further the next Day, aside from mentioning them in her first post.

By the way, that vote for Lalaith looks good for TGWBS. It seems likely that Lhuna was trying to align herself with an innocent by defending him, rather than already defending a fellow wolf. As the Lover-wolf, she'd certainly not be inclined to do that.

I have too little time and actually don't really feel like doing a proper analysis of our departed wolves posts. I advise everyone to look for themselves anyway, rather than rely on summaries.

[Thinlómien]

Wow. I honestly didn't believe Kath to be a wolf. But evidently she was. And we caught the lovers. I hope I don't sound heartless, if I say I'm not very sad at the moment (though Eomer the Innocent is dead). I'm rather happy that we caught two wolves and the lovers in one day. That was great.

Anyway, TGWBS looks a bit bad now - at least to me. He continuosly tried to distract people from analysing Kath and Lhuna by babbling about his double-lynch theory, which would have profited wolves, since now we know at least two of them were female.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I'm also ready to eliminate Caran because a)she's a newbie and b) she's posted quite a bit with substantial posts and is helping the village greatly.

??? Care to explain a bit?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

So, at the risk of stating the obvious,

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

Good stuff, tar. I'd like us to begin thinking toward a double lynch of Glirdan on the strength of Eomer's suspicion of him as well as his less than stellar voting record, and Guy because he was so obviously desperate to find the Lovers yesterDay. I hope to see some substantive defenses put forth by these nominees, and good analysis of them as well.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Good stuff, tar. I'd like us to begin thinking toward a double lynch of Glirdan on the strength of Eomer's suspicion of him as well as his less than stellar voting record, and Guy because he was so obviously desperate to find the Lovers yesterDay. I hope to see some substantive defenses put forth by these nominees, and good analysis of them as well.

Cross-posted. We seem to be thinking along the same lines.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.

I agree. I haven't trusted a word she's said since the beginning of Day 2.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.

Thank you for your confidence; and I agree with most of this, with one major exception: Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.

Glirdan's & Lalaith's voting records are not as good as Formy's. Lalaith has said some really questionable things regarding the whole Kath/Farael/Eomer thing, and her voting record is worthy of question. We need to see more of the substantive and helpful kinds of posts from Lalaith in order to allay suspicion of her, should she deserve our confidence.

[Cailín]

Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Elempi, I get what you are saying and I would agree... but in the past the guy who be wolvish has been more than able to completely delude me. I just cannot rhyme this obvious wolf with the TGWBS I know. This might be my mistake, however.

For good order, we could (double)lynch him toDay. Innocent TGWBS would thoroughly deserve it for his stubbornness ( ) and we can afford to make a mistake.

Your analysis of Glirdy, tar-ancalime, is helpful, though it is perhaps more interesting to see what the known wolves and Farael have said with regards to him. Either way, he looks pretty bad from my point of view.

[the guy who be short]

I have chosen to analyse Kath for two reasons. The first is that, as a non-lover, her aim is actually to help the wolves. This makes it easier to find them through her words.

The second is that I am pressed for time, and she has barely posted.

Post 16

Opposes herself to double lynchings in al but rare situations.

Post 63

Doesn't make sense. Claims it is easier to find the wolf lover than the ordo lover. Slightly, maybe.

Post 75

Votes for Eomer. Alas. Also attacks Garin. All innocents so far.

Post 198

Says she is not a wolf who killed Anguirel knowing it would lead back to her.

Attacks Farael. Says her vote for Eomer came before LMP's.

Post 256

Nothing important

Post 259

First substantial post.

Attacks Eonwe and Naria for being quiet. This may point to Naria's innocence.

Says she will not make a deal of Glirdan changing his style. Points to his guilt.

Eomer - Says nothing in a lot of words. Doesn't suspect him.

Farael - Sees nothing wolvish

Lhuna - Says she is a misguided innocent, too wolvish to be a wolf.

Votes Eonwe - says she doesn't want to keep a tie between Eonwe, Lhuna, Eomer and Naria. However, there were still 10 votes left to go at this point; I think she really influenced Eonwe's lynching. Was her eagerness only to save Lhuna? Was she that worried for Lhuna? We know Eomer was innocent, so perhaps she was nervous because Naria is also a wolf? This makes me look at Naria quite harshly.

Post 333

Says she wasn't aware spawn suspected her so strongly. She didn't, of course. Farael invented this.

Again argues against double lynchings.

Says my idea of lynching all the men is dangerous. Darn right.

Says she will discuss Lhuna later.

Post 337

Analyses spawn.

Says it’s better to go after the wolves than the Lovers. Well that’s true but perhaps then the wolves may have thought she was the ordo Lover since she seems to be trying to stop people looking for them.

Probably why spawn was killed. Not due to dreams.

Says Valier, Guy, Lalaith or Cailín are possibly Seer dreams and innocent. Don't know what to think here.

Acuses Farael.

Says there is good reason to suspect Lalaith and Naria.

Post 405

Says spawn maybe dreamt of Glirdan and found him innocent.

Says spawn suspects Naria and that she may be a wolf, but finds it unlikely.

Votes Lhuna, and says if she is a wolf, which she knew she should be, we should view Lommy and Formen as innocent. Interesting.



I am cross-posting with everybody since my last post. If you'll excuse me, I now wish to examine some voting records.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Why would they be? Why couldn't innocent villagers too argue for your death? I don't get the point

If I am being framed, they need to influence the village to see it.

You may say I'm wolvish because I want to deny this, but you are really the wolvish one. What goodbye-gift a wolf would like to have? An innocent hanged beside him, most probably.

I intentionally said that the village should have the right to choose who to double-lynch with me. Do you have such little faith in your own skills of deduction that you think that anybody you lynch will end up innocent? By allowing the village to choose who to lynch alongside me, I ensure that there is no influence from me. I cannot nominate Seer candidates or enemy innocents to lynch. It comes down to the village - and they should be analytical enough to find a wolf.


Innocent:
Gurthang
tar-ancalime
littlemanpoet

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan
Thinlómien
Formendacil
Naria
Lalaith

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Do you have such little faith in your own skills of deduction that you think that anybody you lynch will end up innocent?

Yes I do. I don't trust my own wits very much (especially know when I actually don't have any clear suspects except you), and you, as a friend of mathemathics should understand that it's probable that we will lynch an innocent alongside with you, if we're going to lynch you.

Would you like to explain your list a bit? A simple list won't help anyone. If you gave some reasons, your list would be taken more into consideration. I can't see any reason for you to do a list without explanation - unless you were a wolf preparing to die and wanting to leave something that would just confuse us.

[Cailín]

Come on, TGWBS.

The wolves would have no interest in 'setting you up' seeing as they are down to two in a still numerous village, there is still a Seer out there and you have done a great job in making yourself look suspicious. Whoever the kill would have been toNight, you had some explaining to do.

I think basically everyone is more or less arguing for your death right now, and since we are still twelve innocents (I hope I got the math right this time) you'd have a hard time finding a wolf amongst them.

As I said before, I am absolutely not certain whether you are guilty or not and indeed I'd sooner lynch Glirdan than you. However, clearing up confusion is always helpful, most villagers won't rest before you are lying beneath the ground and since I have supported double-lynchings from the start I shall gladly assent to your final request.

Also, the voting could tell us something. The wolves may have easily voted for Lhuna, suspecting her to be the Lover-wolf, but I am hesitant to accept that they would have made a double-lynching possible. Caranlondien, littlemanpoet and possibly Lalaith and Samwise would look bad if that theory is indeed plausible.

edit: cross-posted with TGWBS' message above.

[littlemanpoet]

The paranthesis following the vote getter indicates whether the voter was 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or later to vote for the vote getter on that Day.


Player . . . . . . . . Day 1 . . . . . . . . Day 2 . . . . . . . . Day 3 . . . . . . . accuracy

tar-ancalime . . . Farael (1) . . . . . Eomer (2) . . . . . Kath (3) . . . . . . 2 of 3
Caranlondien . . Anguirel (2) . . . . Lhuna (4) . . . . . Lhuna (6) . . . . . 2 of 3
Thinlómien. . . . . Glirdan (2) . . . . Naria (2) . . . . . . Lhuna (1) . . . . . 1? of 3

Samwise . . . . . Garin (5)* . . . . . Lhuna (2) . . . . . .Lhuna (4) . . . . . 2 of 3
Valier . . . . . . . . . Glirdan (1) . . . . .Eonwe (5) . . . . . Kath (6) . . . . . . 1? of 3
Lalaith . . . . . . . . .Guy (2) . . . . . . .Eonwe (1) . . . . . Lhuna (3) . . . . . 1 of 3/ 2 of 3

Glirdan . . . . . . . Garin (4) . . . . . . Naria (1) . . . . . . Kath (4) . . . . . . .1? of 3
Naria . . . . . . . . .Guy (3) . . . . . . . . Eonwe (6) . . . . Kath (7) . . . . . . 1 of 3/2 of 3
Celuien . . . . . . . Garin (3) . . . . . . Samwise (1) . . . . Kath (2) . . . . . .1? of 3

Formendacil . . . .Guy (4) . . . . . . . Kath (2) . . . . . . . .Kath (1) . . . . . . 2 of 3/3 of 3
Guy . . . . . . . . . . .Guy (1)§. . . . . Eomer (1) . . . . . . Farael (1)ª . . . 1 of 3/2 of 3§
Gurthang . . . . . . LMP (2) . . . . . . didn't vote . . . . . .Lhuna (8)± . . . 1 of 2

Cailín . . . . . . . . . Lalaith (1) . . . . .Eonwe (2) . . . . . . didn't vote ± . . . 0 of 2
LMP . . . . . . . . . . Eomer (2) . . . . . Lhuna (3) . . . . . . Lhuna (7) . . . . . 2 of 3

* indicates that Samwise broke a double lynch tie.
ª indicates that Guy voted for the ordo-Lover instead of for a werewolf.
§ indicates that Guy voted for himself.
± indicates that this helped ensure the double lynch of two werewolves and the death of the ordo Lover.

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf, then Formy and Naria look even better (and Guy worse).

Naria improves even more in that she aided in the endeavor to double lynch the two werewolves and the ordo Lover.

Gurthang and Cailíin look pretty good for the same reason.

tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Samwise (and Elempí for that matter) look reasonably innocent.

Guy looks real bad.


The ones that this chart leaves in doubt are Thinlomien, Valier, Glirdan, and Celuien.

EDIT: sorry for the line-wrap; did the best I could with this format

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Elempi

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf...

Guy looks real bad.

Thanks for the deep and meaningful logic.

Originally Posted by Caran

If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

You've lost me. I'm innocent, and I want at least one potential wolf to go down with me if I must.

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

[Lalaith]

I can get online early tomorrow and vote towards the end of the day. Don't know if that will help, mind you.
I'm getting confused about Guy again. I started today fairly sure I was going to vote for him but now I don't know.

[Caranlondien]

Sorry, my blabbering in my last post was confusing. What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).

As for statistics, I'm sick of hearing about them. Believe me, I'm a scientific person, and I'm all in favor of math. But here our often-flawed reasoning is at work, too. Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday, our chances of hitting a werewolf increase. But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.

EDIT: Typo, and cross-posted with Lalaith

[Gurthang]

I'm terribly sorry, I don't have a lot of time. Hopefully, before the end of the day, I'll have time to read through and see what's going on. I'll be looking especially at Glirdan. My main three suspects are dead, and I hadn't really looked at anyone else, but I seem to remember Eomer talking about Glirdan. I'll have to see, thought.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

They do?

Most double-lynchings I've seen have been two ordos. Occassionally you'll get a Wolf as well. Yesterday's doublelynch, while extremely fortuitious for us, was a first, I'm sure, in Tol-in-Gaurhoth history. However, catching two Werewolves means that the number of Werewolves in the village has been halved, while the overall numbers of the village are still over half the original number- meaning that the chances of catching a Werewolf, based on simple stats, have gone DOWN since yesterday.

Which does not mean that a Double-lynch could not catch us a Werewolf- it just means that I refute TGWBS's statement here, and reaffirm my dislike of double-lynchings. Yes, it may catch you a Werewolf, but it will also kill off an innocent.

Fortunately, our village is not yet so low in numbers that we are desperately in need of every Innocent we can lay hands on, but it still seems rather wastefully imprudent to me to be lynching people off every which way we turn.

Anyway...

Having ranting against the ills of double-lynchings, let me say what I'm thinking about TGWBS, yet again:

He's innocent. At least, I think he is. Past experience leads me to think that he's being as innocently normal as we can expect. TGWBS is certainly capable of bold strokes such as he's been accused of, but I somehow don't think that he's guilty of them this time. If he is, then the Werewolves are in serious trouble, with two of their number gone.

Naria's name has also come up a fair bit today as being potentially wolfish. I'm much more hesitant to declare her innocent than TGWBS, although she has been playing to form. However, Naria's style is, by its very nature, rather quiet and cryptic. It wouldn't take much to change suspicious Innocent to suspicious Wolf in her case. I think her a more likely wolf than TGWBS, but I'm not sure yet that she's wolvish...

[Formendacil]

Crossposted, for the record, with two Gurthang posts.

[Lalaith]

Two? I see only one...

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Lal

I'm getting confused about Guy again. I started today fairly sure I was going to vote for him but now I don't know.

You don't want to vote for me.

Yes, you do. He's a dirty werewolf!

Quiet, Abrahadam! This isn't a good time.

It's never a good time with you.

Shhh...

Originally Posted by Caran

What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).

Fairy Nuff. This sounds logical.

In any case, I think we need a free vote because this stuck out to me:

Hmm. I can't find the exact quote. Basically, having rigid voting schemes will result in wolves being able to use the scheme - "I had to vote to keep with the double lynching plan - to escape detection.

So a free vote today, for later analysis.

And if I am killed and proved innocent, double lynchings thereafter. Sound's fair.

But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.

Naria doesn't have to be the other lynchee. I simply view her as more suspicious than others. Left to its own devices, I believe the village would pick Glirdan as its other lynchee.

Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday...

This isn't random. It is maths in conjunction with analysis. We pick the two most suspicious.

They do?

Yes. You refuting this, you bringing up former games, you doing anything cannot change this. If there is x chance of catching a wolf on any day, then double lynching results in a 2x chance of catching one.

And now I retire for the night. Farewell.