Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Caranlondien · 03-21-2006, 03:23 PM

Sorry, my blabbering in my last post was confusing. What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).

As for statistics, I'm sick of hearing about them. Believe me, I'm a scientific person, and I'm all in favor of math. But here our often-flawed reasoning is at work, too. Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday, our chances of hitting a werewolf increase. But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.

EDIT: Typo, and cross-posted with Lalaith

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03-21-2006, 03:23 PM	#18
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	Sorry, my blabbering in my last post was confusing. What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then). As for statistics, I'm sick of hearing about them. Believe me, I'm a scientific person, and I'm all in favor of math. But here our often-flawed reasoning is at work, too. Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday, our chances of hitting a werewolf increase. But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched. EDIT: Typo, and cross-posted with Lalaith