Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Guy

Thanks for the deep and meaningful logic.

Missed a few commas in that. Try this:

"If you, like I, conclude that Guy is a werewolf...."

Better?

[Cailín]

I am right now more confused than ever... so a good thing I'll get to sleep on it.

I am not nor have I ever been sure TGWBS is guilty. His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain. Right now I am not convinced of Naria's guilt -she has posted little, but she never has been known as a vocal, helpful player- and see more in lynching Glirdan along with The Guy. That lynching two potential wolves is most beneficial seems obvious to pretty much everyone.

I shall see you all in the morning. May the wisdom of the Prophet aid you in your choice.

[tar-ancalime]

First of all, lmp, my heart is bursting with love for your chart! It has columns. It has symbols. I can almost smell the musty book it came out of...oh wait, no, I'm having one of those back-in-witch-graduate-school-instead-of-casting-spells-for-peanuts daydreams again. Got to shake that off.

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

But events transpired to make it expedient for the wolves to get rid of the Lovers early: not only the village's collective suspicion of Lhuna, but Farael's increasingly abrasive and unlikely (for an ordinary villager) attacks on Kath. In fact he gave his identity away when he made the comment about tgwbs not being the Seer: he could confidently say that no Seer who had dreamed of him would accuse him, knowing that the Seer sees the Lover as an ordinary villager.

All this to reiterate the point that if we're going to look at voting record, the Lhuna voters are the ones who should get the attention. God, I'm long-winded.

[tar-ancalime]

I'm becoming more and more certain that Glirdan is a wolf. Dangerously certain, as I fear I'm becoming singleminded about it. This is not a good thing, as (a) I can't know for sure, of course, and I don't want to ignore evidence to the contrary, and (b) even if I'm right there's still another wolf out there. Anyway, so be it.

Thanks for the alternative analysis, Celuien. I'm with you on most of it but I'd like to raise a couple of points.

#171: Analysis of Caralondien. Finds it odd that she says she didn’t want to vote for Ang, then did when it would be a safe vote.

Interesting point, though Cana;ondien has been quite logical and helpful recently.

Glirdan was wrong about this. What Caranlondien said was that the village shouldn't lynch the "true lumberjack" (i.e. herself); she set up Ang as something like a false one who would not be a good replacement for her.

#338: Laments spawn. Finds a Kath dream more likely than a Lhuna dream. Thinks that Kath could get away with being a wolf. Asks TGWBS why the wolves would attack females only since they did attack Ang before and says that we can’t base our votes on the idea that the wolves will attack in this manner because there’s no proof that they will (in reference to the lynch all males plan).

Sensible with regard to the plan. But raises my suspicion a little with regard to dense of Lhuna. Only vaguely gives suspicion of Kath, never comes out and says if he suspects her or not - just mentions thatt a dream of Kath is more likely than Lhuna.

Regarding The Plan: (note, once and for all, that I was against the Plan; but not for this reason) It doesn't matter in this plan if the wolves choose to kill all women or not. However, it's likely that they would, because killing more men would only help the villagers. By lynching all the men, we would be, well, getting rid of the men; wolf kills of men would be helping us to reach our goal. So IF we were going to implement this plan, we could do it without worrying about whether or not the wolves would compliantly kill only women--if they didn't, they'd be helping us.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

Is it just me or is that contradictory? But I do agree: just because you voted for Lhuna, and I'm in that category too, doesn't mean you should escape a close examination.

Anyway, sorry to come so late in the day. You know, though, how busy we bankers get: money to store, interest to collect and accounts to wind up. And alas it was with sadness that I wound up my good friend Eomer's account today. He was a great customer- very wealthy! As I look back over his superb voting and accusation record I find myself firmly suspecting one man: Glirdan. In a list of four which included two wolves and an ordo lover Eomer mentioned the above as a double-lynch candidate for today. I would, on the transpiring of evidence, agree with Eomer that (a) we should double lynch today and (b) that Glirdan should be one of those double-lynchees. But who should accompany him? Well, the obvious answer is TGWBS, but alas, I think not. Ok, so he's quite confusing and a bit 'out there', but I just don't think he's a wolf. So, it's a support of a double lynch, because I agree that whatever way you do the maths it helps us innocents, with Glirdan as one of those, but not TGWBS accompanying him.

But who, then? Well, without meaning to sound like a convert to the Church of The Guy Who Be Short, I think Naria. She's been quiet, too quiet, and we must be very careful of those wolves who would wish to lurk in the shadows (I think Farael actually said that). Kath was one of those, and I am inclined to think our dear Naria may be too.

Anyway, that's just a quick post. I hope to do more analysis before I vote, but I'd have to admit my mind is almost made up.

[Caranlondien]

Am I right that we have three votes so far - one for TGWBS, one for Naria, and one for Glirdan?

I'm leaning away from lynching TGWBS toDay. As has been mentioned, he's been helpful lately, and he's looking more innocent than he once did. The only reason I've mentioned him so much toDay is because I did the analysis of Farael, and that's all he talked about apart from Lhuna and Kath. But actually, Farael's focusing on him so much really does make him seem more innocent, the more I think about it, because it would be very risky to run around naming 3/4 of the werewolves.

The person I'm leaning toward lynching is Glirdan. I guess if are going to do a double-lynch, Naria is another good suspect.

The thing about double-lynchings is that yes, it increases a wolf's chances of being lynched, but that's because it increases everyone's chances - Ordos and Gifteds, too. As far as the numbers go, we can afford to lose an Ordo... but, still, I think caution is called for. I just couldn't keep myself from saying something more about it; I'm stubborn...

[Caranlondien]

I've been re-reading the posts. I'm going back and forth in my opinion on TGWBS. I sympathize with Cailín:

Originally Posted by Cailín

His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain.

She goes on to say that for the moment she's in favor of lynching Glirdan and TGWBS.

If we're going to do a double-lynch, it's pretty much accepting that we can afford to lose innocents. Maybe it would be better to lynch TGWBS along with someone else, just so that we could move on and discuss something else. Not that I think the discussion today has been a waste, because, well, he is suspicious-looking, gosh darn it!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I'm becoming more and more certain that Glirdan is a wolf. Dangerously certain, as I fear I'm becoming singleminded about it. This is not a good thing, as (a) I can't know for sure, of course, and I don't want to ignore evidence to the contrary, and (b) even if I'm right there's still another wolf out there. Anyway, so be it.

Thanks for the alternative analysis, Celuien. I'm with you on most of it but I'd like to raise a couple of points.


Glirdan was wrong about this. What Caranlondien said was that the village shouldn't lynch the "true lumberjack" (i.e. herself); she set up Ang as something like a false one who would not be a good replacement for her.

Oops. Sorry for the error.

Support for Carnalondien stands, by the way.

Originally Posted by tar-a

Regarding The Plan: (note, once and for all, that I was against the Plan; but not for this reason) It doesn't matter in this plan if the wolves choose to kill all women or not. However, it's likely that they would, because killing more men would only help the villagers. By lynching all the men, we would be, well, getting rid of the men; wolf kills of men would be helping us to reach our goal. So IF we were going to implement this plan, we could do it without worrying about whether or not the wolves would compliantly kill only women--if they didn't, they'd be helping us.

Okay. I guess it would have made more sense for them to even out the ratio and not to aid the village in its quest.

For the record, I was against the plan because it takes attention away from the village women, among whom two beasts have now been found. I forget where I said that before.

And another point against Glirdan. Eomer suspected him and he was two for two on Kath and Lhuna. Could he have been three for three? Maybe.

At first glance from about post 523, TGWBS appears innocent to me, although I haven't reviewed anything from earlier yet. I'll try and come back with some more on him later.

[tar-ancalime]

++ Glirdan

I just can't imagine anything happening today that would change my mind. I'm in favor of another double, but (as you can see) I feel strongly that Glirdan should be one of the two lucky candidates.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

This doesn't appear contradictory to me. Rather, it points to the balance that the non-lover werewolves had to (have to) try to maintain between two polar motivations. The one being the desire to rid themselves of the Lovers, the second being the desire to rid themselves of innocent villagers. They need the villagers for goal one, and the Lovers for goal two. Glad I'm not a werewolf. Yeesh!

But I actually quoted this again because tar's point is one that slipped by me. Thank you, tar. Lhuna voters are not automatically cleared of suspicion, not even those who voted for Lhuna two days running; which admittedly includes me. Wow. That really mucks things up.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

LMP, I'm sorry you misinterpreted me. I just said "three intelligent men", because you are, how is that male-bashing???

Thanks to the guy who be furry for the summary of some of Kath's words, trying to get people to be suspicious of Lalaith & Naria. Despite my words earlier toDay that I didn't trust Lalaith, she seems to be honestly searching for the werewolves.

Wow. Five votes cast, eight to go.

Guy 2 - thin & Celuien
Glirdan 2 - tar & Sam
Naria 1 - Guy

That's a lot of votes to cast yet, but there are only two werewolves, so if we develop a consensus with Gurthang (whom I trust based on yesterDay) voting late, we can get a double lynch. Even if we don't get the double lynch, I'm still satisfied with either Guy or Glirdan going down toDay.

Since there are doubts arising in terms of Guy, I will do my part in adding to the consensus in his direction, in large part because I believe that Celuien is right about him.

++ the guy who be short

Note! - - Those who voted for Kath yesterDay are somewhat vindicated, especially those who voted for her late; the werewolves are probably not to be found amongst those numbers because it would have been expedient to save Kath and lynch only Lhuna .... with the proviso that perhaps sacrificing both might be better than sticking out like a sore thumb later as the one or two who saved Kath by pushing Lhuna over the edge alone; so take that for what it's worth.

And just for the record:

Really look like werewolves to me:
guy
Glirdan

Rather convinced of innocence due to substantive posting all game long:
Cailín
Lalaith
Gurthang

Probably innocent because of their solid help or good voting record all game long:
tar-ancalime
Caranlondien
Samwise
Formendacil

Just not sure about these folks and they really need a closer look:
Naria
Valier
Thinlomien

Good Night.

[Valier]

Well I'm afraid I looked through the posts and am still unsure. TGWBS does seem a little too helpful and I have felt that Glirdan's behavior in this game has been odd.Naria I think to be just quiet, she did vote later in the day so it helped to get both wolves killed. The one I think we should lynch would probably be Glirdan, but if a double lynch is to be held again I think it should be for The Guy. These two are just hard to "get" . Perhaps the plan of lynching a few males might not be a bad idea, then if that does not succeed try to look a little closer at the females.

I will wait a little longer before I vote, but it would be great to hear more from the "accused"

[tar-ancalime]

Perhaps the plan of lynching a few males might not be a bad idea, then if that does not succeed try to look a little closer at the females.

Lynching based on sex was only a viable option when we were looking for the Lovers, one of whom was guaranteed to be male. The men were the candidates for the systematic lynching because after the first few days, the village population was starting to skew that way.

The Lovers are dead now, so the sex of the lynch candidates is irrelevant.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I see now how the two satements are not necessarily contradictory. If I get it right then the wolves would ideally have wanted to keep the lovers alive, but when they saw an opportunity to bump their voting record up they would probably have taken it, right?

[Caranlondien]

Some excellent points have been made since I was here last, and I've been convinced about a double lynch today. I'd be in favor of TGWBS and Glirdan, as I find them most suspicious. I'm able to stay around late to make sure the votes work out, if need be.

I believe this is how the vote stands now:

Thinlo-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 1)
TGWBS-->Naria (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1)
tar-a-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 1)
Samwise-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)
Celuien-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 2, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)
LMP-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 3, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)