Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Gurthang]

Well, I've gotten up early to post an analysis I typed up yesterday; I'll put it up shortly, after I remove Celuien's name. I am also puzzled by the wolves choice, which, among other reasons, may have been why they chose her: to confuse us. Only time will tell.

I would also like to apologize for not voting yesterday. For what it's worth, I was highly suspicious about Glirdan and probably would have voted for him; I don't know if I would have supported a double or not. Turns out I would have been wrong either way.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

The werewolves were playing us (innocents) off against the Lovers; of this we can be sure. That means that whoever voted for Lhuna is more likely to be a werewolf than whoever voted for Kath. That does not exonerate those who voted for Kath, but the likelihood of their innocence is greater than the Lhuna voters. Granted, that does not make me look very good, but I can live with that.

I agree with this entirely, and one part of my analysis (my next post) is based on this.

[Gurthang]

Okay, bear with me on this, because this is going to be long. Seeing as most of our suspects (all five of them) have been killed in the last two days, I've decided to do my own analysis of everyone by using... unconventional methods. Well, maybe not so much unconventional as not often used. After each part, I'll list who I find innocent and who I find suspicious from each part. If I'm undecided on any person, then they won't be in either list. Anyway, I hope I can make sense of it when I'm done. (Oh, and keep in mind that I typed most of this up during the Night.)


Part 1: Gut Instinct

Laugh all you want, but I've found that my gut can sometimes be more trustworthy than my brain. So, I thought I'd give my gut some say and here's what it says:

Feels innocent:
Cailín
Formendacil
SamwiseGamgee

Feels suspicious:
Caranlondien
Naria
Valier
LMP


Part 2: Day 3 Voting

Here's the facts(courtesy of TGWBS's post):
Known innocents in italics; known enemies in bold.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Cailín --> No one (Lhuna 7 - Farael 1 - Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Okay, to me, it would seem logical that the wolves, being the (presumably) intelligent evil beings that they are, would see that there was a lot of suspicion for Lhuna going into the Day. Knowing this, and maybe even thinking she was the female lover, they would probably turn on her. Meaning that the other wolves probably voted for Lhuna. On the other hand, I sincerely doubt that they would put Kath on the platform. It would be to easy for the wolves to just bandwagon onto Lhuna, rather than make the unnecessary sacrifice of voting for another wolf. This also makes LMP's vote look questionable, because, if we wanted to double lynch, then we would need to keep the votes close, and he tried to make the gap wider when we really needed some votes for Kath.

So, from the voting on Day 3:

Looks innocent:
Formendacil
tar-ancalime
Valier
Naria
Cailín


Looks suspicious:
LMP
Thin
Lalaith
SamwiseGamgee
Caranlondien
Gurthang
(I know I'm innocent, but you guys don't, so my name will stay.)


Part 3: First Day Mentionings

I would think that, especially on the first Day, that wolves would avoid either accusing or defending each other directly. I just think they'd avoid mentioning each other at all. So, here are what we know about who named who on the first day. (I will list only those who are still alive.)

Mentioned Lhuna or Kath
Cailín
LMP
Gurthang
Formendacil
Thin (Only to state crossposting)

Mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Lalaith
Naria

Did not mention or was not mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

I believe that's right. I scanned through the first day thrice. Lhuna and Kath only had about 7 posts total between them, so there wasn't much there. I don't think I missed anyone talking about them, though. I also won't put someone in the 'looks innocent' category simply for having the word Lhuna or Kath in their post; it needs to be a decent mention. So, assuming my research to be correct:

Looks innocent:
Lalaith
Naria
Formendacil
LMP

Looks suspicious:
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

[Gurthang]

I'll be back on later toDay to post Part 4: Individual Voting and to post a summary of who I think this information implicates. I don't know that my decision will be based wholly on these Parts, but I don't know that I have a lot else to go off of.

I'm almost thinking of doing a Part 5: Votes Received, but I don't know that that would tell us anything. I'll just have to see when I have time.

[Lalaith]

Thanks for all this, Gurthang.
Just one thing - you've emboldened poor Glirdan as an enemy, and he was an innocent.

[Cailín]

Interesting Gurthang...

Especially since Caranlondien pops up on your suspicion lists so often, while I -primarily based on instincts or because I was impressed with her contributions as a newbie to the game- have never considered her as wolfish before. Maybe I should review that feeling.

I am very much inclined to trust you, Gurthang, so I value your thoughts. Would you say that a Wolf-Valier or Naria would have tallied the scores, knowing full well two of their allies would die?

[tar-ancalime]

Interesting, Gurthang. It's funny how Day 1 always seems to grow in importance, the longer the game goes on.

How about "mentioned by Farael?" Would that be worth looking at? Granted, his agenda was a little different than, say, Kath's, but still he knew the score. He proved to us on Day 3 that he wasn't shy about using his knowledge.

I don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves. Any Seer who's lasted this long is laying very low indeed (and bravo to you, good madam or sir!). It could be that the wolves have stopped looking for obvious Seer clues and are getting a little paranoid--starting to knock off those who have been playing smart but a little quiet. They started with the loudmouths and caught a break with spawn; could they have moved on to a different strategy after failing with Anguirel and Eomer (seeing as how they're running out of loudmouths)?

[Lalaith]

don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves

Not everyone, at all.
My entire analysis of Celuien's posts was based on the wolves thinking she was a Seer. Cailin at least appeared to concur with this thesis.

[tar-ancalime]

Sorry, Lalaith. By "everyone" I guess I meant...um...Thinlomien.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Cailin, to whom I also apologize.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves. Any Seer who's lasted this long is laying very low indeed (and bravo to you, good madam or sir!). It could be that the wolves have stopped looking for obvious Seer clues and are getting a little paranoid--starting to knock off those who have been playing smart but a little quiet. They started with the loudmouths and caught a break with spawn; could they have moved on to a different strategy after failing with Anguirel and Eomer (seeing as how they're running out of loudmouths)?

Quite the contrary, tar, I am convinced the wolves thought Celuien to be a Seer. Otherwise they would have murdered a more generally trusted villager. Such as yourself, Gurthang or Littlemanpoet (perhaps even me) - people who have been contributing regularly and have never been seriously under suspicion yet. We cannot all be wolves.

I just fail to see why they believed her to be the second Seer... perhaps they are getting desperate indeed. Which would be good news.

[Gurthang]

Quick answers, I have to leave soon.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Thanks for all this, Gurthang.
Just one thing - you've emboldened poor Glirdan as an enemy, and he was an innocent.

Oops. I'll edit that.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Would you say that a Wolf-Valier or Naria would have tallied the scores, knowing full well two of their allies would die?

It's possible, but I would doubt it. I think that we wouldn't have looked twice if they had voted for Lhuna, simply saying they didn't like the double lynch. It would have been very easy for them to do that and stay out of trouble. So, yes they could still be wolves, but from that part of the analysis, they look innocent. I guess that's key, I used the words 'look' and 'feel' rather than just saying 'definitely are', since none of this is ever for certain. Still, I think that coming up with enough places where someone is looking guilty can lead to a wolf.

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

How about "mentioned by Farael?" Would that be worth looking at? Granted, his agenda was a little different than, say, Kath's, but still he knew the score. He proved to us on Day 3 that he wasn't shy about using his knowledge.

I don't know. The only trouble is there's no way to cross-reference with anything, since none of the wolves would have known he was a lover either, they would not have avoided talking about him. Still, you can never tell, so if you want to, then go ahead. I don't see how it could hurt.