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Old 04-04-2006, 05:35 PM   #1
Roa_Aoife
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What? What? Well that just shoots my theory to Mordor. *tears up notes about Morm*

Kath, Garin explained his silence the other Day as dealing with some serious RL issues, so I don't think you can base a case on that.

Obviously, most of the people Morm dreamed about died, or I think he would have revealed himself. Since I was certain he was the last cat, I came up with a post listing. I have to re-analyze it though, since before I was looking for suspicious behavior, and now I'm looking for people he exonerates.

Morm
Day 1
1st post - Quotes Eonwe, notes that Diamond and Farael are "at each other's throats."
2nd - Doesn't like Eonwe's strategy of random votes, language is fairly accusatory
3rd - Responds to Farael, says the cats are unlikely to be overtly guilty on Day 1, but would rather post just enough to not arouse suspicion. Points to Wilwa and Thin.
4th - Doesn't want to use Valier's post for evidence. Says Thin is behaving like a werecat, Sleepy jumps out at him for flip-flopping, and "there's a lot of idle chatter."
5th - Responds to Roa by refusing to respond to Roa
6th - votes Thin on gut feeling

Day 2
1st - Looks at Wilwa, thinks she's "kittyish" says cat vs. cat strategy won't escape him.
2nd - Doesn't want to use "hint" as evidence for voting
3rd - Asks everyone to ignore the hint
4th - Wants to hear more from Wilwa, says he will vote for her unless she can answer him or he finds someone more suspicious. Find Farael's constant voting for Eonwe odd. Thinks Glirdan, Garin, and Diamond are helpful (Diamond "to a slightly lesser degree), believes Glirdan and Garin are innocent, is annoyed by everyone following the rhyme
5th - OOC post, says he feels strongly about use of hints in a game, doesn't want to focus on possible reasoning for Nogrod's death, trying to ignore evidence based on reactions to the Nogrod Theory.
6th - thinks Wilwa is over-reacting, says she's acting like a were-cat under pressure, wants to hear more from Alca, Eonwe, and Teleperca. Asks Thin about cat-on-cat theory, questions her "known innocence" (misinterpretation of quote)
7th - Concerned about Alca and Eonwe, but not Glirdan, doesn't buy Wilwa's defense, thinks Thin may be innocent. Uncertain about Wilwa, but suspicious of her for vote placement and defense, Votes Wilwa
8th - Responds to Roa about past game referencing, says he finds nothing odd in Garin's behavior, thinks Kath is innocent, thinks Roa is innocent but misdirected, doesn't think Garin is guilty
9th - vote count
10th - vote retraction, Votes Eonwe, "placated" by Wilwa's defense, and is "now" uncertain of her guilt, says Eonwe is erratic and dangerous, and he has a nagging suspicion of him, says Wilwa is still under the microscope

Day 3
1st - Kath, Farael, Thin, and Diamond are most suspicious, Roa and Form are secondary, doubts a werecat in Wilwa voters, thinks Kath and Diamond are the most suspicious, says Telp is a "non-factor"
2nd - Questions Farael's vote for Eonwe, finds Eonwe and Garin to be the least suspicious by voting record, highly suspicious of Farael
3rd - agrees with Thin about Telp, thinks Thin is suspicious but not guilty, says Form has been unhelpful
3rd - votes Diamond, says her voting record makes it look like she was trying to save two wolves
4th - Thinks that Thin looks more innocent for voting with Wilwa, says the cats would vote to save a comrade or throw away a vote, point to Diamond and Form
5th - Quote for Diamond, thinks she was trying to save Wilwa
6th - Remarks about Diamond's vote change occurring right after a vote for her, thinks voting to lynch Telp is an easy kill, thinks Telp is most likely innocent
7th - Responds to Kath about double lynching, wonders why Thin must die

Day 4
1st - wonders about who the protector and the wolf picked
2nd - says Kath and Glirdan are topping his list of suspicion, says Kath pushed hard to get Thin and Telp killed, tells Kath not to bother defending herself, says the last cat is playing openly
3rd - votes Glirdan because of his vote placement, says his defense is contrived
4th - says he did a hasty review of Kath and Glirdan, but was unsure of Kath. Says Glirdan looks better but feels worse about him
5th - responds to Kath's seeker plan. Says it makes some sense, but also seems like an attempt to flush out the seer, presents scenario with Kath as presupposed cat, thinks she is either a cat or a villager with a good plan
6th - responds to Kath, says he assumed that the cat and the protector both picked the seeker, and that would free up the cat for a kill
7th - says the debate is too speculative, and takes away time from finding a cat
8th - Asks Form who he dreamed of
9th - Says it would be foolish of Form to come out if he dreamt of a cat or a gifted, doubts a bluff at this stage
10th - finds the sudden push for him at the end interesting, says Glirdan and Kath didn't have prior suspicion of him, says one of his three voters is a cat, says arguments against him are "bereft of any thought or logic"
11th - Responds to Glirdan, says he pushed for Diamond's death, not Telp's, says having a known innocent around will help the village, so they should keep Form
12th - restates that it was Kath who pushed for Telp
13th - Says he finds both Kath and Glirdan suspicious
14th - Says he meant that Kath was an advocate of Telp's and Thin's deaths

(I got sick of bolding the names.)

Edit: Cross posted with Farael
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Old 04-04-2006, 05:43 PM   #2
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Morm did a sudden change in opinion on Eonwe the day after voting for him. I think it's likely that Morm dreamed of Eonwe that night and found him innocent. He was also quite adamant about Garin's innocense, so I think it's safe to cross him off the list, too.

I believe he was dreaming of Kath when he died, because he pretty much said he was going to yesterDay. We know he didn't dream of Glirdan or Wilwa.

With his reluctance to come forward yesterDay, I think it's a safe bet that these two are the ones he dreamed of and are therefore innocent. Since we can cross Form off the list because he's the b-day dreamer, that brings the list down to:

Roa
Kath
Alca
Farael

Form, if you can cross one more of these names of the list, let us know.
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Old 04-04-2006, 05:46 PM   #3
Roa_Aoife
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Quote:
With his reluctance to come forward yesterDay, I think it's a safe bet that these two are the ones he dreamed of and are therefore innocent.
Sorry, I wrote that wrong. (Stupid medication.) What I meant is that these are the two left alive, since he probably would've come forward if he knew more than this.
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Old 04-04-2006, 07:41 PM   #4
Farael
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You talk good sense Roa, and you have yourself as possibly cattish, so that's a plus.... I would suggest we take a good look at Cath *ahem* Kath and Alcarillo.... I'd think about ridding ourselves of Alca first, but that's just me.
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Old 04-04-2006, 07:45 PM   #5
Eonwe
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Eonwe has just left Hobbiton.
Silmaril

Wow, that is...less than good. Our 'sittin' prudy' has suddenly changed to somewhat desparate straights.

I was also beginning to think about Morm as guilty. Guess I can throw that out.

Back to the drawing board....
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Old 04-04-2006, 07:47 PM   #6
Roa_Aoife
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It's really quiet....

*feels the spirit of Thin posessing her* I guess I'm just going to carry on!

Alright, obviously analysis has to be done of the remaining suspects. Obviously, I can't analyze myself (I'm kind of biased in that area) so if Garin, Eonwe, or Form could analyze me, I'd appreciate it. I'm almost positive that you're the innocents, so I'd rather have you do it than a possible wolf who may twist things to make me look guilty in their place. (Though, on second thought, that may help us catch him/her.)

I think I'll save Kath for last since she'll take the longest. However, am I correct in noting that Alca didn't show up at all yesterDay? If he doesn't show up today, he'll be lynched anyways, so I want to focus more on Farael and Kath, personally.

EDIT: Cross posted with last two posts. Someone else is alive! Yay!
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Old 04-04-2006, 08:12 PM   #7
Roa_Aoife
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Alca
Day 1
1st post - starting nonsense, says he hates Day 1because there's barely anything to go on. Will have to vote early because of time zones. Prefers gut voting on Day 1. Points to Farael for eagerness to vote and spread blame.
2nd - Votes Farael and apologizes

Day 2
1st - Has to vote early, Votes Wilwa, for general suspiciousness, and believes Glirdan's argument about Sleepy's response, may change vote later if reason and opportunity present themselves

Day 3
1st - Votes Telp, says we need to put our minds to ease about her

Day 4
1st - Votes Form based on quote from Diamond, and admitted retribution (I believe this statement is a nonsense statement.)
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Old 04-04-2006, 08:21 PM   #8
Roa_Aoife
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My mistake, he did vote yesterday. He to give a reasoning behind his votes, but alot of it is merely repeating everything that other's have said. I don't know if this makes him a Cat or a villager with little time to analyze on his own. (I've never played with him. Is this how he usually is?) His votes could all be construed as safe, or it could be that he's going with who he thinks is suspicious. I would find it very odd for a werecat to be so quiet at this stage, but he could be trying to slip through the cracks. I wouldn't say his vote for Wilwa exonerates him, since it was the second vote for her, and was therefore in safe position as Wilwa still could have been saved. I'm hesitant about attacking someone who isn't around enough to offer a defense, though.
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Old 04-04-2006, 08:32 PM   #9
Roa_Aoife
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[epiphany]
This game could go either way right now. Looking at a worse case scenario:

Today we lynch someone off the list, narrowing it to three.
Tonight, a known innocent is killed.
Tomorrow we lynch someone off the list, narrowing it to two (at which point one person will be certain of the cat's identity.)
Tomorrow night a known innocent is killed.
The next day an innocent is lynched, and the cat wins.

Naturally the cat would have to be extremely clever to pull this off, but having survived this long and having left us so lost as to his/her identity, I think it's safe to say this is a clever cat.
[/epiphany]

Farael's up next.
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