Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

I can find little evidence, other than my normal paranoia, that Caranlondien is a wereorc. Her posts seem reasonable (gah, more paranoia rising to the surface) and unhasty. If we later discover that Spawn is innocent, this may be some ilk of indication that she is a wereorc...but at this point, everyone is making claims, so I cannot find evidence to prove her guilty.

Why would finding Spawn to be innocent point to me being a wereorc? After analyzing her, I decided she didn't seem quite so suspicious as Nogrod was making her out to be, and I wanted to hear from her.

Nogrod makes good points, but he also makes me uneasy. Are you suggesting that without well-founded suspicions to go on, we should lynch the quiet people? I can see some of the appeal. It's true, what you said, that quiet people get more and more dangerous as the game goes on. But that's also the sort of plan a bunch of loud orcs would want.

Now, I think I'll analyze Roa and Nogrod, both of whom have seemed helpful so far, and thus whom I am afraid I might overlook.

[Nogrod]

This seems really getting intresting... and my time is zero!

I'm trying to join you as soon as I can!

Just a short note to Caran

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Nogrod makes good points, but he also makes me uneasy. Are you suggesting that without well-founded suspicions to go on, we should lynch the quiet people? I can see some of the appeal. It's true, what you said, that quiet people get more and more dangerous as the game goes on. But that's also the sort of plan a bunch of loud orcs would want.

Not it isn't. Orcs love those who do nothing, they are easy prey, and not worth killing during the night: the gifteds and the good players are their primary night-targets... during the daytime good players fight back, during the night they can't.


And Jenny: thank's for your kind words again...

[Caranlondien]

I decided to analyze Nogrod first, because when I was part-way through writing my last post, he posted some things that made me more suspicious of him (if you go back to my last post, you'll see I put in some thoughts on his post).

Nogrod:

DAY ONE

#2: Suggests dreamers (besides Shaman) reveal their dreams as they happen.

#4: Defends plan, saying it will force the orcs to react rather than act. Also likes Celuien's suggestion that dreamers leave obscure hints, but thinks it might be too difficult then to determine what was a hint and what was not.

#6: Agrees with Roa that the Shaman role is "interesting" in that once the Shaman dies, we won't be scouring their posts for clues (except, of course, for the first dream).

#26: Thinks many players have made a hasty judgement on his dreamer plan. Says there's no way the orcs could benefit from it.

#32: Corrects Spawn, who had said that once a dreamer dies, we will easily be able to tell whom they dreamt of; says we won't know that person had a dream in the first place. Responds to Jenny's comment that revealing known innocents will help the orcs determine who the Shaman is; says it would also limit the scope for the Shaman about who the orcs are, but can't tell which is "heavier". Finally, says his plan is bad for a different reason: if the Shaman chooses mostly experienced players to dream about, we will be eliminating all those experienced players early (since the orcs would kill them).

#38: Agrees with Jenny that "I agree" stuff with no reasoning looks suspicious. Also finds people who say Day 1 is useless suspicious. Divides the villagers who have spoken so far into 3 groups. (Group 1) He thinks Celuien, Roa, Jenny, Spawn, and Caranlondien have been well-reasoned so far. (Group 2) Thinks Grendelien, Glirdan, Kitanna, Findeasea, and Naria have flawed reasoning (or no reasoning at all) in going against his plan. (Group 3) Thinks Diamond and Sleepy are acting suspiciously.

#41: Pretty much restates previous post, saying he won't vote for Group 1, and is willing to give the newbies from Group 2 the benefit of the doubt. Points out that Azaelia and Legolas iS haven't spoken yet.

#51: Vote count

#54: Responds to Roa's question about time zones.

#56: Tells Findeasea to make her vote bold, tells mod he thinks the vote should count anyway.

#58: Apologizes for accidentally changing his vote count in #51.

#60: New vote count. Doubts his suspicions of Diamond and Glirdan, and asks to hear more from Diamond.

#66: Defends his plan against one attack, but then says again that it's bad for other reasons.

#70: Says Sleepy's confession that he has been trying to get himself lynched confuses him and puts those who haven't voted yet in a weird situation. Edits to say cross-posted with Roa, who suggested Sleepy is trying to go for a record for getting lynched Day 1 or Night 1.

#73: Says Diamond's defense of herself (#71) has eased his suspicion of her.

#78: Lists the leading lynching candidates (Diamond, Glirdan, and Sleepy) and seems to briefly analyze each of them, though I can't make out what he's saying exactly about Glirdan. Lists the others who have not yet voted (Grendelien, Zali, Naria, and Legolas iS)

#85: Cross-posts with a bunch of people, and so doesn't realize he's not the only one left to vote; seems to prefer killing Sleepy (who seemed to want to be lynched), but says it would take another person to help him.

#88: Says since Glirdan's fate is already sealed, he might as well give Sleepy his wish and vote for him. (Votes for Sleepy).

#92: Tells Diamond that analyses have often proved useful.

DAY TWO

#99: Rejoices that Ranger staved off the Orcs' attack, but regrets we lynched an innocent yesterday. Says he felt uneasy about the forerunners (Does he mean he felt suspicious of them, or felt uneasy about lynching any of them? Probably the latter.) Warns he has RL stuff going on, won't be around too much toDay.

#101: Cross-posts a tally of votes with Celuien; says he excuses Legolas iS's no-vote as newbie-ness, and Naria's as computer-problems.

#102: Asks Celuien to analyze the Glirdan vote, and he'll do overall suspicions - innocence -claims.

#106: Responds to Roa, who had said she'll analyze Diamond-voters.

#118: Analysis of who people suspect / who they think is innocent

#122: Comments on the massive amount of analysis; wonders why no one analyzed Spawn, who is high on his suspicion list after doing his analysis. Asks some questions about Spawn's objections to his plan.

#127: Says suspicion of Spawn is because he sees her ideas as orc-helping, yet she has somehow not come under suspicion.

#129: Replies to Legolas iS

#141: Says he is toning down his suspicion of Spawn, but still thinks her attack on Roa is odd, and wonders at her suspicions about random voting. Makes a distinction between a "random" gut vote and a truly random (i.e., roll a die) vote.

#148: Worries that the day is wearing on and we have next to no suspects (Which I have to say is concerning me too). Decides to go by confusion-sowing, and lists Spawn and Celuien as two players whose posts have confused him.

#149: Responds to a question Roa asked him (asks what she's asking about)

#162: Responds to Caran's uneasiness, making a good point I hadn't thought of: a bunch of loud orcs might benefit in the short term by having the village kill all the quiet ones, but overall they'd prefer to have quiet people to hide amongst.

My thoughts: In #60, saying that he doubts his suspicions of the two people at that time in the lead for votes puts him in a very safe position if they're both innocent. Whichever one ends up dying, he can say he didn't think they were guilty. However, if they are both innocent, then it's good he doubts his suspicions of them... hmm, you could take this either way. #66 looks oddly defensive of his plan; I mean, he'd already found a flaw in it himself, so why keep defending it from other attacks?

I have a tendency to begin to suspect whomever I analyze, so I want to be cautious, but Nogrod certainly warrants keeping an eye on.

And I just re-checked the thread and added his latest post (#162). It addresses one of my concerns, and makes me less suspicious of him.

[Caranlondien]

That analysis took longer than expected (Nogrod, innocent or not, no one can say you haven't made substantive posts ) , and I have to go for a bit. I'll return to analyze Roa.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Unfortunately I have to vote now.

There are a few silent people whom I could vote for being around so little that it's impossible to know if they are orcs or not, and if they're not, they aren't helping us to get the culprits.

Then there are a few loud ones who have caught my attention. One of them is Nogrod. I don't think he is suspicious because he made a case (even though it wasn't a case) against me, but because he twisted some of my words, and when a few people said that they didn't find my behaviour alltogether that suspicious, he started backing off (seeing that it might be dangerous to pursue this further, perhaps).

I really need to go now and I don't want to put Diamond so clearly in the lead (did Legolas' vote count?), so I'll explain my vote more tomorrow if I'm not dead by then. In the meantime, you can look at Caran's analysis of him, because she makes some points that I agree with.


++Nogrod


Good night.

[Roa_Aoife]

I have to say I sort of agree with Nogrod about lynching the quiet ones. It always seems to get maddenly quiet in the last days of a village because everyone who contributes has been killed, either by orcs or by lynchings. Also, orcs have been knwn to be intentionally quiet because no one ever looks in their direction to lynch them. Of the quiet ones: (These are taken from the post list at 5 or under posts)

Findeasea & Grendelien are new to the game, but despite the low posting number, they still manage to be thoughtful and substantial in their posts. I would like to keep them around for a little while longer at least.

Kitanna I don't what to make of. She seems to playing to her usual style- A few, good posts. (She's never survived long enough in games I've played with her to get a good feel for her way of playing.)

Zali is at the high end of the quiet people. She makes good posts despite the low volume, but several others have remarked (I believe) that she normally posts more.

Naria posts about the same way she always does. She doesn't do a whole lot of theorizing, but she does ask good questions.

Spawn also at the high end of the quiet people. She kind of pops in and pops back out with out much warning or explanation. I've not played with her before, so I don't know if this is typical.

Edit:Cross posted with Spawn, and forgot LiS.

LiS I'm excusing since she just seems to be really confused about WW at this point. Hopefully she'll catch up and be able to contribute.

[Celuien]

Right. Loud orcs vs quiet innocents is exactly what a loud orc would want. Then they're doing all of the theorizing and planning to sway the daytime events and killing the more dangerous loud innocents at night. It leaves them completely in charge of everything.

So far the only vote is Kitanna for Diamond. Kitanna's main reason for the vote seems to have been Diamond's statement that she won't be helpful. That statement looked like Diamond just trying to say that she didn't really know anything with certainty, and was followed by this:

I suppose despite being an ordo I could still come up with some genius theory to help figure out who the Orcs are, but I kind of doubt it. Not my area of strength.

...so I thought she was just saying that she didn't feel confident in theorizing without input from revealed dreams.

Of course, Kitanna has now made me rethink my classifications, so while I most likely will not vote for Diamond, she moves to my watch list again.

And, please, Legolas iS, tell us some more about what you're thinking. One liners and silence only benefit the wereorcs. I'm also willing to give you the benefit of the doubt since you have been confused, but you can see that a plan has been floated that would involve lynching quiet villagers such as yourself. I don't want that to happen since even though I have supported actions in that vein before, I don't want to do so unnecessarily or without giving everyone a proper chance to adjust to the game.

[Celuien]

Unless I'm mistaken, Findëasëa hasn't arrived yet today. I hope she does. Farael has implied that non-posters for a day will automatically be killed (is this correct, oh great mod?), and I'd hate to lose anyone needlessly. Unless she's a wereorc, in which case she's more than welcome to stay away.

Since I have to go soon and am not sure if I'll make it back before the day ends, I'll have to cast a vote now.

++ Azaelia of Willowbottom

I'm interested by Spawn's suspicions of Nogrod. I think I'll have to take another look at both of them, but unfortunately, that will have to wait for tomorrow. If I'm still alive.

[Farael]

This is a message from the Prime Minister of the United States of America
*Hint**Hint* the US has a President

It has been hereby decreted that Legolas iS's vote will NOT count unless he votes again in the proper fashion.

Furthermore, it is now forbidden for any of the players to post or vote after the deadline, even if the Mod has not said anything about it (sorry guys, I might not be home tonight... that's why I wanted a co-mod but we didnt have enough players anyway.

In any case, you can all post for about three more hours and fifty minutes.

[Roa_Aoife]

I have to go soon, so I'm going to get my vote in now, just in case.

I don't know really what to make of this village. Everyone is acting at the same level of suspiciousness to me, and I can't really decide who deserves a vote. I don't really want to get rid of the people who are contributing to the discussion since they're keeping things going. Of the quiet ones, I think Kitanna is looking the worst right now. So

++Kitanna

Edit: Cross posted with Zali and Diamond.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Roa

I don't know really what to make of this village.

Tell me about it.

Three and a half hours left, and no major suspects... As promised, I'll do an analysis of Roa.

I just can't decide whether Nogrod's new plan of lynching the quiet ones is something the orcs would or wouldn't want. I originally thought as Celuien does, that orcs could kill the loud ones at night and lynch the quiet during the day, but Nogrod did make some good points in his favor. I think if I have time, I'll analyze Celuien, too, as she and Nogrod are a bit at odds over this plan. Plus she's another one I naturally want to trust, and I wouldn't want to let an orc slip by me so easily! Sorry, I know other people have done analyses, but it's just about the only way I can work out whom to vote for... Plus, we do benefit from cross-checking.

[Sleepy Ranger]

What I Think About You - WITH REASONS!

Caranlondien: Innocent
I believe shes innocent. Shes been active in discussion and hasn't really given me any reason to suspect her.
Suspicion Level: *
---

JennyHallu: Not sure
JennyHallu is a very good player and I suggest we keep our eye on her, if shes an innocent then good for us however if she is an orc we're screwed. So I'll be keeping an eye on her just to be safe.
Suspicion Level: ***
---

Nogrod: A bit on the suspicious side
Now heres an excellent player. He could pull off quite about anything, whenever I've seen him play as an innocent hes played very well and has always been a prime target of the bad guys. However, in a way I have a feeling that hes been playing this game rather differently. I have a half formed theory linking him with Spawn, I'll work on this and see if anything works out.
Suspicion Level: ****
---

Grendelien: Not sure
I'm really not sure what to think about this one.
Suspicion Level: **
---

Findëasëa: Flip-floppey
No, I'm not calling her flip-floppey, I'm just saying thats what I am about her. I'd keep an eye on her but theres not enough to see.
Suspicion Level: ***
---

Celuien: Not sure
I'm not sure about her. I've a gut feeling that says shes up to no good but thats not really something you can rely on too well. For now I guess I'll leave her be with minimum suspicion.
Suspicion Level: *
---

Zali: O_o
Uh... I don't know?
Suspicion Level: N/A
---

Diamond: Innocent
I'm pretty sure Diamond is innocent. She never really struck me as suspicious, she had some fun on Day 1 and that alone proves to me she isn't here for the killing. At this stage I'm not really willing to believe that Diamond is anything but innocent, however later developments could prove me wrong, I wont rule it out.
Suspicion Level:
---

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: Very suspicious
At the moment since I have some sort of link between her and Nogrod I'd be bold enough to say that if she is an orc so is Nogrod and if she is innocent so is Nogrod. Its a very bold statement and probably a bit rash as well but it makes some sort of sense to me so I'll stick with it till I can solidify it. I'd suggest lynching her today.
Suspicion Level: *****
---

Kitanna: Somewhat suspicious
She can be a rather aggressive player at times, in fact I believe shes been aggressive in all the games I've seen her play. Her silence disturbs me, could something be wrong? I don't know but I'd definately like to hear from her.
Suspicion Level: ****
---

Naria: Innocent
Naria doesn't seem suspicious to me. For now I'd leave her be but once I have a look at the other folk it couldn't hurt to turn her way. For the moment I won't waste my time with her but if I come across anything I shall press.
Suspicion Level: *
---

Sleepy Ranger: Self-analysis is lame
I've always found people who analyze themselves sort of guilty. Probably just in my head but oh well, I won't be doing one for myself.
---

Legolas in spandex: noob
Shes a noob and has no idea what shes doing. I doubt she would've recieved a special role but with dear Farael, who knows?
Suspicion Level: What you say?
---

Roa_Aoife: Probably Innocent
Its a wild guess actually, I'll keep my eye on her but I believe shes innocent. I've seen Roa play as an evil-doer and I've seen her play as an innocent, I don't see much wrong with her.
Suspicion Level: **
---

Thats all for now. I'll get to work on my Nogrod-Spawn theory and get back to you folk as soon as I can. My vote will probably be for Spawn but it shall wait, I want to see what develops.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Jenny

Diamond, there is a big difference between volume and substance.

Jenny, this doesn't sit quite right with me. I feel like Diamond has gotten down to business very well today (and even had before this particular post of yours). Her posting on the first day, I'm willing to forgive and forget for now, as there are aspects of my own behavior yesterDay that I'd like for the same thing to be done with.

And Celuien, I want to know why you voted for me. You expressed suspicion of me, but I feel like I wasn't given much of a chance.