Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Roa

I don't know really what to make of this village.

Tell me about it.

Three and a half hours left, and no major suspects... As promised, I'll do an analysis of Roa.

I just can't decide whether Nogrod's new plan of lynching the quiet ones is something the orcs would or wouldn't want. I originally thought as Celuien does, that orcs could kill the loud ones at night and lynch the quiet during the day, but Nogrod did make some good points in his favor. I think if I have time, I'll analyze Celuien, too, as she and Nogrod are a bit at odds over this plan. Plus she's another one I naturally want to trust, and I wouldn't want to let an orc slip by me so easily! Sorry, I know other people have done analyses, but it's just about the only way I can work out whom to vote for... Plus, we do benefit from cross-checking.

[Naria]

I am out of time! The most suspicous for me toDay would have to be Sleepy. He said that he was going to be more "normal" and help the village more toDay, but if I am correct he has only done the one post toDay and not much in it. I am not discounting the other two that I have on my list; I just think he is the most suspicous for toDay.

++Sleepy Ranger

[Findëasëa]

Good morning…er afternoon everyone,
First I would like to explain my choice for voting for Glirdan. I apologize for the lack of detail or substance in the explanation in my choice, I was under the impression that the voting ended one minute after I made my post, not two hours after. In order to make the deadline my explanation was rushed and, as a result, flawed. I understand that my accusation seemed unfounded and hypocritical, for the latter I have no excuses, I do look suspicious for my lack of informative posts. I will try to remedy this. My choice to vote for Glirdan was based mostly upon my perception of his actions. Disregarding all of the in character stuff, he seemed suspicious because of his random vote and because of his explanations. The random vote seemed suspicious because the nonchalance of his words seemed to contradict what I perceived as defensiveness in his explanations. We now know that this is innocent, so my perceptions were obviously wrong.

I have been trying to analyze the information posted today and its significance in discovering wereorcs. If I were a wereorc, I would try as hard as possible to make my image separate from that of my fellows in the minds of the other players. This would be beneficial in that if one were to die the others would not be reveled. Because I am new to the village, I am not quite familiar with the nature that individual people ordinarily project. This may handicap my ability to determine if a person is going out of their way to create a different image than usual. I am not trying to imply that this is a universal truth, just a way that one might be better able to figure out who is guilty. I guess that on the first few days this would be especially true. I will come back in a bit and post a list of people and who they have mentioned or interacted with.

[Legolas in spandex]

Reason for my vote: Diamond seems rather spontanious and she set about giving a non-useful post early in the game. She seems overly dramatic in her posts and has some desire to constantly speak of killing orcs, almost in a defesnsive manner as if afraid to speak too much of other things. As I have said..

++Diamond

[Farael]

Legolas' vote WILL count. But please, remember to bold your vote.

[Diamond18]

I have some ideas on who to vote for, but I'm going to hold off as long as possible (non-retractable voting makes me nervous). I'm at work and am about to leave, so when I'm at home and have more leisure to peruse the day thus far, I'll try to do some kind of review of my ideas/suspicions about all the players and make as informed a vote as I can. So, more later.

PS -- LiS, I'm always melodramatic. *dons valkryie cap, braids, and anatomically correct breastplate, sings opera* But I have to close up this joint and get home, so you'll all have to wait for my final aria.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Azaelia is Zali?!? No wonder... *slaps head*

[Nogrod]

I know that this looks bad: just writing reaction-posts to others (kind of defending my position), but I just have these twenty minutes or so, and I have just seen what has happend after my last visit here.

So a couple of fast remarks.

= Spawn
Then there are a few loud ones who have caught my attention. One of them is Nogrod. I don't think he is suspicious because he made a case (even though it wasn't a case) against me, but because he twisted some of my words, and when a few people said that they didn't find my behaviour alltogether that suspicious, he started backing off (seeing that it might be dangerous to pursue this further, perhaps)

I do admit rephrasing your post badly - as I checked it afterwards. My bad. But not intentional (see the widht of the analysis...). But the second point I don't understand: people grow more suspicious because of what is said and they grow less suspicious with it. I just basically learned from others, that there were other misunderstandings about the dreams (that they would be revealed), and started to think, that maybe you too could have misunderstood them. So I didn't tone down my suspicion about you because some others said they didn't find you suspicious (indeed there were also people who thought you suspicious too...).

= Caran
I just can't decide whether Nogrod's new plan of lynching the quiet ones is something the orcs would or wouldn't want. I originally thought as Celuien does, that orcs could kill the loud ones at night and lynch the quiet during the day, but Nogrod did make some good points in his favor.

This would need to be checked, but I have thought, that Celuien and I have been quite evenminded with this one. Celuien stated, that there is a danger of lynching innocents more, than lynching orcs - I do realize this danger with the quiets, but that danger also lurks when we lynch the active players. And really: these are suggestions for everyone to think about, not plans driven with some madman vigour...

Trying to be back asp.

[Caranlondien]

Roa_Aoife

DAY ONE

#5: Notes that the Shaman role is interesting; Shaman need not come forward (villagers who dream can sacrifice themselves instead), but on the other hand, once the Shaman dies, we can't just look back through their posts to figure out who they dreamt of.

#11: Says she thinks deciding whether to reveal the dream is up to the dreamer. Wants to move on and talk about strategies. Comments that random votes are better than no votes at all.

#16: Responds to Jenny's (joking) accusation.

#28: Asks Naria to explain two quotes, one of which was made by Nogrod, not Naria.

#40: Apologizes for misquoting Naria; tells Spawn her response to Jenny was joking. Defends random votes as a last resort.

#46: Says she must vote. Says Diamond is suspicious-looking, but doesn't think an orc would be that reckless off the bat. Decides to vote for Glirdan.

#53: Raises question about Timezones.

#69: Suggests that Sleepy is trying to get lynched because he's been killed Day 1 or Night 1 for the past few games and wants to go for a record.

#74: Points out to Nogrod tht Diamond is currently in the lead for lynching votes.

#76: Updates voting list.

#79: Lists those who have not yet voted.

#91: Says analysis can be difficult.

DAY TWO

#105: Says she'll analyze those who voted for Diamond.

#111: Analysis of Celuien. Decides Celuien looks less suspicious and more helpful.

#115: Laughter at "#71 Calls Sleep a dork"

#116: Analysis of Caran. Say she can't seem to find anything suspicious about me. ( Well, that's good, because I'm innocent).

#120: Analysis of Jenny. Can't seem to find much on her, either, but says that out of the three she's analyzed, Jenny looks most suspicious.

#126: Says Spawn's accusation of her left her confused.

#138: Explains Nogrod's short-hand in his vote summary.

#145: Expresses confusion about Grendelien's reasoning for voting for Glirdan. Agrees with Diamond that everyone seems to be trying to find fault with her. Answers Naria about someone postponing analysis; asks Nogrod his thoughts on "the whole suspicion thing".

#147: Asks Legolas why she voted for Diamond.

#151: Clarifies that she was asking Nogrod about his analysis of people's suspicions.

#154: Apologizes to Farael for "doing his job".

#167: Says she "sort of" agrees with Nogrod about lynching the quiet ones, because orcs can hide in quiets, and it gets quiet the last few days if all the louds are lynched. Lists "the quiet ones" as Findeasea, Grendelien, Kitanna, Zali, Naria, Spawn, and LiS.

#172: Decides that out of the quiet ones, Kitanna is looking the worst right now. Votes for Kitanna, saying she has to leave soon.


My thoughts: Post #11 (when Roa makes the now infamous statement about random votes being better than no votes at all) doesn't seem that suspicious to me. I agree with those who are opposed to random votes, but it seems to me that this statement was made in an attempt to convince people to vote, in general. Since then, she's sort of dropped out of the action, doing some analyses and mostly seeming thoughtful. Now this is no reason to think her guilty, I suppose, but she is clearly being careful. I still don't know what to think about the "killing-the-quiet-ones" scheme, so neither am I sure what to think about Roa's stance on it. In short, I'm keeping my eye on her.