Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Roa_Aoife]

Scanning through- I have to go back and re-read everything, but this caught my eye.

Originally Posted by Diamond

Especially since Nogrod has claimed to dream of Sleepy's innocence. If this is true, that shows that Jenny accused three innocents in this post. Like I said, testing the waters.

Just because Nogrod dreamed deosn't mean he's innocent. He may be an orc trying to cover his tracks. Dreamership doesn't equal innocent in this game, since even the orcs can dream. Not that I don't trust Nogrod (I don't) but it seems a bit rash to assume this means he's innocent when it doesn't.

Also, I wasn't particularly suspicious of Diamond before, but she keeps pointing to Jenny's accusations as though they place her above suspicion somehow. The one game where I played as a wolf, I was quite ruthless in going after one of my teammates during the day. If Jenny was paying special attention to you, it could mean quite the opposite.

And also this-

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I have smoked a couple of cigarettes thinking about this

Stop smoking. It's bad for you.

[Celuien]

Hmm. Am I the Shaman?

I'm not going to say. If you think I am, please don't say anything more to help the Orcsies spot me.

If you think I'm not a gifted, also don't say anything for now. It'll just help protect other Shaman candidates from being killed at night if I'm the leading Shaman suspect.

Either way, I'm probably doomed toNIGHT. But I don't mind. I've done my job.

Not saying anymore about this subject.

[Caranlondien]

Not much time... I'm almost late for class.

First, I agree with Roa that Jenny's fervor in pursuing Diamond certainly doesn't rule Diamond out as a suspect. Neither does Nogrod's declaration that he dreamt of an innocent Sleepy make Nogrod innocent. And neither does Jenny's mention of Roa make her innocent, as Diamond seems to think. I'll be keeping a close eye on those three (Diamond, Nogrod, and Roa).

However, I do believe that Sleepy is innocent. If an orcish Nogrod had lied about an orcish Sleepy, in a few days time we'd all be wondering why Sleepy wasn't dead yet. And once we knew one of them was an orc, we'd have a nice little trail to follow to the other. I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

This is all I have time to write for now, but I'll be back a few hours before the Day ends; good luck, fellow villagers, in sorting out this mess while I'm gone.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

Well, thank you! Just from the brief look at this, I thought this village had gone completetly mad!

RL-issue: have to visit my mom, as she requested. I'll be back in some couple of hours and try to hang as long as I dare: I have work tomorrow, and the closing time of theDay here is 3AM today.

I have read the posts again, and am starting to think, that maybe I should put Diamond back to my list of suspicions...

Basically I looked at the posts of three yet unknown to me, eg. Caran, Grend & Find.

Just a shortcut (bus leaves in then minutes).

Caranlodien I do not suspect much, even her judgements on the basis of her (very good) analysis seem weird or even contradictory at times...

Findëasëa has started quietly and made some confusing choices to beging with, but she has been getting better all the time.

Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?) Also see Spawn's analysis on her! See for yourselves! This is just a "look and see" -warning. I don't know what to make of her. Looks very good - and thence very bad...

I'll try to be back asp. and try to elaborate then.

PS. Sleepy: C'mon, cool down! Just help us now, please! You will probably be alive tomorrow anyhow...

[Sleepy Ranger]

Look Nogrod, bear with me for a while. I know what I'm doing, trust me on this. I am calm, I know I won't die tonight but if I see to trap an orc I'll take it. Just trust me on this, I know what I'm doing.

As for you Kitanna, you hadn't posted in a long while and I guess I worded my post wrong but I meant to say that it didn't suit your aggressive nature. And I didn't know about your lung so yeah.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?)

Hahah, ouch, Nogrod. I know my posts before weren't substantial, but I assure you my list of obvious possibilities was my own. I was thinking about your dream all last night, trying to come up with as many possibilities as possible (where is the thesaurus?). I omitted the ones supporting the possibilty of your innocence, simply because, if you are innocent, I believe you have a hidden agenda, which I don't think should be disclosed at this time. However, I cannot be sure of your innocence, simply because I have two contrasting thoughts about you eating at my brain. For the purpose of narrowing suspects, I'm going to move onto the other villagers for now, unless I find substantial evidence supporting your innocence of verifying your guilt.

[Kitanna]

First off, I'd like to respond to Sleepy.

She can be a rather aggressive player at times, in fact I believe shes been aggressive in all the games I've seen her play. Her silence disturbs me, could something be wrong? I don't know but I'd definately like to hear from her.

Indeed something is wrong, my lung has been coughed up and that is why I have not been around much. I'm not trying to fly under the radar.

I'm almost certain Kitanna is an orc that and I've never liked players who are too aggressive. I'll probably vote for her or Naria today.

Why? Because I'm agressive? That's a day one excuse for trying to get someone lynched, not a day three reason.

Interesting that the orcs would kill her over Zali. Why not go for the gifted rather than the known innocent?

I wondered at this myself. Were the orcs angry Spawn didn't bite the dust on Night two so they decided to go after her again. Now if Spawn was going to be a "safe" kill for them on Night Two it wouldn't make sense for them to try to kill her again on Night Three, unless they thought she knew something.
On Day One Spawn mostly suspected Roa and Diamond, but she mentioned Findëasëa and Sleepy. (But it appears Sleepy is innocent due to Nogrod's dream) Her mention of Findëasëa was quick and not so much of an accusation. Something like that could be enough to get the orcs attention.
On Day Two her first post was mostly defense against Nogrod's suspicions. She also mentioned Findëasëa again in her Day Two posts. Findëasëa is the only name Spawn brings up twice in an analysis. May mean something, it may not...

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

If I were a wereorc, I would try as hard as possible to make my image separate from that of my fellows in the minds of the other players.

When villagers outline what they would do if they were werecreatures, I always feel a little unsettled. It's like "Hey, I would never do this to the village, therefore I'm not an orc."

There's more interpretation than that, Nogrod. It's possible that Jenny didn't mention either of her fellow orcs, in hopes that we would focus away from them and onto these. I think a better question would be who isn't mentioned by her?

Then again, Jenny's clever. She may have counted on us not believing her, and so deliberately called her teammates for what they were.

One way or the other Jenny was trying to confuse us. I think she most likely named off one of her fellow orcs and kept the other one silent. Jenny's is clever and it's possible she was anticipating the village response. So, she gave us a list of names and she mentioned at least one teammate knowing we'd either look carefully at those she mentioned or those she didn't, but not both. Looking at everyone will be like repeating day one.

I do find it interesting that she revealed Rangerness without really any prompting

I'm sure Zali will speak for herself on this, but perhaps she thought if we knew her role she'd have more credibility when it came to the dream.

Though, now that I think about it, if they really thought Spawn was the Shaman, they'd know that Zali could protect her again, and would go right for the source.

The ranger isn't able to protect the same person two nights in a row though. So if the orcs thought Spawn was the shaman they should know she'd be unprotected the next night.

1) Zali is an orc.
2) Both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name.
3) One of the orcs is male and another is experienced in the role.
4) Grendelien is an orc.
5) Findeasea is an orc.
6) Naria is an orc. (And she says this twice.)

While it's hard to say what is true and what is not I'd say number 1 is false. I feel Zali is innocent, though we can never be sure, I think she told us the truth about her role. Also I think of the other five "clues" Jenny left, number 3 will probably be the truest. Of all the others I think if any were to be true this one would be the one. I don't follow all the WW games, so I can't say who is experienced in the werecreature role. I think the part about one being a male is true, simply because the odds of the orcs all being one sex are slim.

Sleepy is not an orc.

I'm glad Nogrod revealed the dream. I was far from convinced of Sleepy's innocence.

If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. If Nogrod is an orc he could see reveals Sleepy as an innocent a way to clear his name. He reveals Sleepy because Sleepy has gathered suspicion today and if he saves Sleepy from the noose he'll look good. And should Sleepy die during the night (any night) Nogrod can always say "Well, I saved Sleepy from a lynching, why would I be foolish enough to kill him at night?"
Now I am not convinced of Nogrod's innocence at all. I believe he speaks the truth about Sleepy, but I have been weary of Nogrod since day one and his revealing the dream does nothing to take away my suspicions.

Wait...! I just though of something! Could it be possible that Zali is in fact *not* the Ranger but the Shaman? Think about it, she came out as ranger to keep her shamaness self hidden. And she probably thought it may work to confuse the orcs. On another note if I'm wrong and the actual Shaman has dream about an orc would they please come out? I dunno I just have a feeling the Shaman is Celuien!

Ack! I discourage revealing who you think is the shaman because you just might be right. I have an idea who I think it might be, but for fear of being right I won't reveal it. The last thing I want is our shaman getting mauled in the night.
As for Zali being the shaman and just pretending to be the ranger I recall Fea trying something like that and it ended badly.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

If Nogrod is an orc he could see reveals Sleepy as an innocent a way to clear his name. He reveals Sleepy because Sleepy has gathered suspicion today and if he saves Sleepy from the noose he'll look good. And should Sleepy die during the night (any night) Nogrod can always say "Well, I saved Sleepy from a lynching, why would I be foolish enough to kill him at night?"
Now I am not convinced of Nogrod's innocence at all. I believe he speaks the truth about Sleepy, but I have been weary of Nogrod since day one and his revealing the dream does nothing to take away my suspicions.

I've had this suspicion as well, but it's possible that Nogrod is an ordo and has hidden motives in mind when revealing his dream. I'm very torn between these two possibilities.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

The ranger isn't able to protect the same person two nights in a row though. So if the orcs thought Spawn was the shaman they should know she'd be unprotected the next night.

D'oh. That was my quote and it was a typo. Could = couldn't. Which makes more sense in the context I was using, I hope. I have a bad habit of leaving off contractions.

Anyway, I have very little time as I am late for work (the story of my life, yes, I know) but I just wanted to say, I love you Sleepy. And if that looks suspicious, I don't care.

[Sleepy Ranger]

As for Zali being the shaman and just pretending to be the ranger I recall Fea trying something like that and it ended badly.

No, it was WWJ I and the villagers won that. The irony of it all was that the ranger was pretending to be the seer and the seer was pretending to be the ranger.

but I just wanted to say, I love you Sleepy.

Ssssshhh! Don't let Ka hear you...
Anyway since I'm off for the day I'll leave my vote;

Grenden seems to be too good to be true at the moment so I'll leave it at that. I've gone through things and decided voting for Naria could be folly or it could actually be the right way down, as for Kitanna, good to have her back but I still can't shake off that dis-trust for her.

I hope I'm not making any mistakes, I'm trusting you on this one JennyHallu, please don't be pushing me the wrong way!

++Naria

EDIT: Just decided to add, "I love you too, Diamond you cute little duck!"

[Naria]

I hope I'm not making any mistakes, I'm trusting you on this one JennyHallu, please don't be pushing me the wrong way!

Well Sleepy, just like everyone has been saying Jenny is a smart little weasel!! She is definitely "pushing" you in the wrong direction. Why on earth you would want to believe a werecreature is beyond me! If you are an ordo then you have definitely made a mistake, if you are an orc than it makes perfect sense why you would trust her and vote for me. However, I do believe that Nogrod has dreamt of you and found you to be innocent .

Once again, though. Nogrod could have dreamt of Sleepy and is just saying that he is an ordo when in fact he could be an orc. Remember the one with the dream can do with the dreamt information as they wish. It would be a very clever plan indeed. Nogrod says, "hey Sleepy is an ordo" when he could be Nogrod's sidekick, meanwhile making himself and Sleepy look like innocents...hmmm. I wouldn't put it past either one of these two to come up with such a dubious plan. However, just food for thought and I will leave this topic for now.

I am going to re-read over everyone's posts and will be back with my findings. It may take me awhile, but I will get it posted.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Naria

Once again, though. Nogrod could have dreamt of Sleepy and is just saying that he is an ordo when in fact he could be an orc. Remember the one with the dream can do with the dreamt information as they wish. It would be a very clever plan indeed. Nogrod says, "hey Sleepy is an ordo" when he could be Nogrod's sidekick, meanwhile making himself and Sleepy look like innocents...hmmm.

Well. I don't like to be this kind of an old grumpy to whine on everything, but just look at what I have said at my first post:

= Nogrod #2
My basic instinct would say, we just come forwards with them, one by one, as we have them. The orcs possibly won't get very far with lying about them (one "found out" -lie - when the dream goes to an orc that tries to save a fellow - would get another orc lynched immediately?)

And I have tried to make that point all along: the dreamers are not proven innocents, they are vessels to carry the dreams - and given to the wrong hands, they might be deceitful - but not long-lasting ones.

I have not claimed innocence by revealing my dream. I do trust your judgement on that - as Zali will have to trust our judgement over her. We might have reasons against her or then not - and the same goes with me.

I am not so stupid, as to try this kind of gamble, were I an orc. Please. I guess the orc having a dream, should just stay quiet - that would gain some confusion, sooner or later... and would not give the villagers the edge of one votee as the day closes.

But you believe, what you want to believe. I didn't reveal my dream to save my butt - with this I agree with Celuien: better that I go than a gifted going. I revealed it, because it will make the night more confusing for the orcs ("whom to go after?"), and because Sleepy was getting suspected, and I knew he was innocent. Let's not lynch innocents, if we can avoid it. It will be just a couple of days onwards, when the question of pure mass (the ratio between the innocents vs. the orcs) comes forwards and will start to dictate all the things done here...

This to begin with. I'll come back soon with some thoughts about Caran, Find & Grend...

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Sleepy

Grenden seems to be too good to be true at the moment

I have to stick my nose in here and say that I came under suspicion for exactly the same reason in the last WW game... and I was innocent, just doing a darned good job on my own

For now I'm willing to put aside my suspicions of Zali. Right now I'm feeling most suspicious of Nogrod and Kitanna. Typical loud wolf/quiet wolf there (with orcs instead of wolves, of course). And I can't shake my feeling about Roa (I know, I know, I have Analysis Disease, and I can't trust anyone after I've analyzed them). If only I had time to look deeper at the suspects, but, suspicious as it may seem, if I want to eat today I have to run over before class, and I shan't be back until an hour or two before the Day ends.