Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Grendelien]

I've been thinking very long and hard about who the possible Shaman could be. I have a thought, based on posts (I'm sorry this is terribly, annoyingly vague, but I think it's crucial to protect the identity of the possible Shaman), and if it turns out to be somehow miraculously correct, I believe the innocence of some unknown villagers may be confirmed.

There would be three remaining ones that I would still be unsure of- Naria, Roa, and Caranlondien.

I'm definitely not going to suspect these three right away, because I know that my thought on who the Shaman is may be very, very wrong, and therefore detrimental to the village. Unfortunately, I won't know if my thoughts are correct unless the Shaman is exposed or killed, and I'd rather be wrong than have that happen. Since I know that I could very well be wrong in my guess, I'm not going to accuse any of the three right away...but I will keep myeye on them.

[Farael]

Indeed, now I'm all yours, my lovely village. Ok, not quite, but at least my times should be a little better.

First of all, a huge thanks to Fowlren for starting the day for me. I just got home, so the day would have started about four hours late if it wasn't for her =)

Second, this day will also be an hour longer to compensate for the late start.

Third, good luck, both wereorcs and villagers! and gifteds and anyone else who happens to be reading this note.

[Caranlondien]

It's late, my time, and I must get some sleep, so I can't post very much right now, but here's a little explanation I wrote whilst twiddling my thumbs overNight…

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Please forgive me my playing the "advocate". I just thought we should see something new for a while (all the people have just talked of me, Roa, Diamond etc...).

I hope you didn't think I was truly offended; I understand the need to look at everyone, and I can see how some of my actions, just like everyone else's, can be seen as suspicious if looked at in the right way. When re-reading my response, I can also see how it could easily be read with a much harsher tone than I intended

Really, I was just reacting to the word "lie". I know this is a game of lying -- I know that two of you are orcs, so two of you are lying to me right now! (Looks around accusingly.) But small lies about facts that everyone's going to go back and check anyway don't make sense as an orcish strategy, and I, at least, have been looking for more substantial reasons to suspect people.

[Nogrod]

This is getting intresting - and I'm getting more afraid every day, for our orcs are no basic-orcs. Sadly, they seem to have intelligence.

I don't think killing Diamond was jumpy or without a very cunning reasoning behind it (so, I don't believe, that Jenny was the "leader"-orc).

But clearly, our ranger (whoever she is) was played fool this night - and I'm very much afraid of the next night, if that indeed is the orc-plan. Then our shaman has some tough choices to make today. And if Zali is our ranger, she has been made to look quite guilty as well. And I think, most of the villagers were beginning to trust Diamond to be innocent, so no bad choice that either: vocal, well-hunched (at least what comes to Jenny), likely innocent - who would not have been protected with high probability. So I'm not so sure, ´whether Diamond's posts help very much. She seems to be just an ideal kill before the real one the orcs are after.

[Nogrod]

I totally agree with Celuien, that we should really start thinking about our chances with some revealments. Two innocent-lynches more, and we are about done with. I quess we can make a mistake today, but not any more tomorrow.

But going on with the calculations by Celuien.

The shaman is alive, and has one dream = two innocents known (or even better: one known innocent and one known orc!)

I had the dream on Sleepy, and know my innocence = two innocents known (and I understand, that you can't take this for granted - just from my point of view, then)

If Diamond (or an orc) wasn't the dreamer (chances: 7/10), we have one more dream from last night = two known innocents (or even better: one known innocent and one known orc!)

Assuming Zali innocent, at least for the sake of an argument, we might have, in the best case, 7 known / believable innocents / orcs! That would leave just two unknowns!

These wouldn't be "granted innocents" to all of us, but somewhat believable to guide our attention: to start taking better look at those not known yet. We would have very very bad luck indeed, if both orcs would be included in this known or believable innocents list! And I guess we have pretty nice chances, that there is no orc on the list - so the orcs are among the 3-4 (5?) unknown?

Of course there are possibilities that make this not so good a plan.

We can't be 100% sure about the dreamers, but we may trust those dreamed of to be what they are. Of course, there is the possibility of an orc jackpot too: an orc receiving a dream about another orc - when that orc really should "reveal" her fellow-orc as an innocent. And I must agree, that you have a reason to apply that possibility to the case of me & Sleepy. Although, as happily the probability for this is quite small, I'm not sure, whether one should go on betting on that option.

Also: the shaman might have had her first dream on me - or the one receiving the dream last night. That would reduce the number of known / believable persons with one.

So, what to do?

I would think it wise for the dreamer to come forth with her dream. It would ease our task to pick the wolf tonight. Our shaman must look at the situation herself, and judge it, as she sees best.

And if by some unprobable twist of the situation, Zali would be just a ranger impersonator, our real ranger probably should come forwards quite soon, pointing to Zali's orcishness. If an orc would try to twist this revealement, we would be killing innocent Zali tonight, but getting the orc tomorrow, and I don't quite think, the orcs would like to be reduced to one at this point of the game. And anyhow, I'm quite positive about Zali's innocence, so this probably isn't something we should be very much afraid of.

[Nogrod]

Triple-posting!

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I hope you didn't think I was truly offended; I understand the need to look at everyone, and I can see how some of my actions, just like everyone else's, can be seen as suspicious if looked at in the right way. When re-reading my response, I can also see how it could easily be read with a much harsher tone than I intended

I think no-one should be offended, as this is - after all - just a game. But no, I didn't think you were harsh, just reacting - as anyone (me included) probably would, when seeing a somewhat twisted analysis on one's posting...

Using the word "lie" was probably a bit strong choice, and you are right about the foolishness to use that kind of lies as an orc tactics...

[Nogrod]

Quadruple...

I will cease posting in a minute.

Just that no-one gets me wrong: I'm not saying, that everyone should rush to reveal her knowledge on the double. I'm more likely wishing everyone to see for the wisdom of the "plan" - and more than that, the possible flaws in it. If we agree it is reasonable, we should go for it, if we see problems big enough, we shouldn't.

I'm just afraid, that we very soon will need to take on some more drastic measures, as we are losing ground all the time with no good ideas to go forth with.

[Roa_Aoife]

OOC- I had a small emergency that kept me busy most of yesterday, which is why I'm so late posting today. - OOC

I too was curious to see Sleepy, Celuien, and Zali alive, and Diamond dead. Thinking about it, Nogrod's explaination makes the most sense, which could mean several things.

Sleepy and Celuien are innocent, and the orcs didn't know who Zali our protector would pick to protect, so they killed Diamond (for the reasons listed by Nogrod)

Sleepy and Celuien are innocent, and the orc Zali didn't know who was protected.

Sleepy is innocent, and the orcs Celuien and Zali didn't know if he would be protected or not.

Sleepy is an orc (along with Nogrod), and intended for Zali to Celuien.

Now these are just possiblities. I personally think the dream of Sleepy was true, though Zali's continued life and constant reassertion of her status make me nervous. Not only that, but her continued statement of her surprise is sounding more and more contrived.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And if by some unprobable twist of the situation, Zali would be just a ranger impersonator, our real ranger probably should come forwards quite soon, pointing to Zali's orcishness.

I don't think I agree just yet. The village isn't in such dire straights that we need to sacrifice a gifted. Really, by your own assesment, we seem to be in a rather good position. The presence of the ranger may be keeping the orcs from going after the ones they really want to go after, like Sleepy and Celuien. If Zali isn't the ranger, then the true ranger should stay hidden a little longer. If we lynch an orc today, the reveal would probably wholly uneccessary. If we don't, then, and only then, would I say the ranger come forward.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Findeasea

Roa: I should have phrased my post a lot better. I didn’t mean that you do not contribute or state your opinions, but that your apparent helpfulness might be a distraction from giving away actual opinions which might put you in a guilty light. Hmm… I still feel like what I am trying to say is not coming out right. The best way I can think to phrase what I mean is that the root of your contributions is not exactly clear to me.

I am sorry if I called you suspicious falsely, but I just didn’t want to risk not saying anything in case my feeling was right.

Suspecting people is part of the game. (Right now the only person I don't at least midly suspect is Sleepy.) There are no hards feeling over that. I don't understand what you're saying though- I'm contributing, helping the village, definitely stating my opinions, and that makes me more suspicios? By that reasoning, Nogrod and Celuien are also highly suspicious. Please explain why I'm standing out.

Nogrod- I've found another flaw in your plan. What if Diamond was the one dreamt of last night? What if Spawn was the one dreamt of by the Shaman first? That would certainly throw a kink in your plans. For someone who accused Spawn of spreading Orcish propaganda, you seem to come up with a lot of faulty plans yourself.

Originally Posted by Celuien

*pinches self*

Still alive. I didn't expect that at all. I really thought that either Zali or I would be toast last night. Still, it's good to be here.

Why didn't you think Sleepy would die?

Originally Posted by Grendelien

I've been thinking very long and hard about who the possible Shaman could be. I have a thought, based on posts (I'm sorry this is terribly, annoyingly vague, but I think it's crucial to protect the identity of the possible Shaman), and if it turns out to be somehow miraculously correct, I believe the innocence of some unknown villagers may be confirmed.

There would be three remaining ones that I would still be unsure of- Naria, Roa, and Caranlondien.

I'm definitely not going to suspect these three right away, because I know that my thought on who the Shaman is may be very, very wrong, and therefore detrimental to the village. Unfortunately, I won't know if my thoughts are correct unless the Shaman is exposed or killed, and I'd rather be wrong than have that happen. Since I know that I could very well be wrong in my guess, I'm not going to accuse any of the three right away...but I will keep myeye on them.

I'm curious to know how you can narrow the list down so far. There have only been four nights, therefore only four dreams. One of those was of an Orc, so that leaves only 3 dreams, another was of Sleepy, so that's 2 to reveal known innocents. One was just the previous night, and the dreamer may not have arrived yet, so you really only have one to go on, from the first day. In regular games, dreams go directly to the seer, and even then, if the seer dies, we can't always interpret their posts properly. If a seer thinks someone is innocent, that doesn't mean they dreamt of them. Likewise, if a seer thinks someone is suspicious, it doesn't make them guilty. So, how, in this game, when the dreams don't necessarily go to the Shaman, are you able to narrow the list so far down, just by figuring out who the Shaman is?

[Sleepy Ranger]

Well I got back from school a long while ago but I haven't posted till yet because the 'Downs was down for me.

I'll probably do a list later but for now, Finde and Grend seem the most orcish to me.
All of a sudden Zali is starting to seem suspicious to me, self-admitted ranger, why is she still alive? Take her out and the orcs would be free to kill who they wish but wait... maybe shes been left alive in hopes that we'd begin to suspect her? I know this has been gone over before but all of a sudden I don't find Zali to be so much the hero she was on Day 2.

First I'd like to address this post made by Grend

Haha, Nogrod, every post you make me very nervous...your posts strengthen the chance of your being innocent or your being an orc, and very, very good one at that. I cannot shake the notion that you are trying (as an orc) to develop bonds with ordinary villagers. You already have Sleepy's trust, because you revealed his innocence, which I believe to be true. Could it be you are just trying to get to me next? I am willing to see you try to support your innocence and, if you really are innocent, to try to come to the realization that I am innocent as well. I can't waste anymore time! I must vote soon.

I've trusted Nogrod since before he had the dream I find this an invalid point. He had no need to develop a bond with me since there already is one, at most posting that just weakened the bond rather than strengthened it and now with Diamond's death I assure you its been severed completely.

And what do you meant 'get me next'? Do you mean Nogrod is trying to get everyone to like him so that nobody'll vote for him? Pardon me but I find this to be an absurd theory. It would take someone very charismatic or really desperate to try something like that, no offence to Nogrod but as I said in ME Idol, you lack the X-Factor. And with the current confusion I'd say its not the orcs who are desperate. Don't get me wrong, Nogrod can put up a convincing arguement but when it comes to making friends of everyone in the village? Is that even plausible?

Now then, back to Finde and Grend. They've been playing rather well and honestly I find them to be suspicious. Grend has seemed eager this whole game and her recent post of minimizing the list of suspects based on what the shaman says just seems weird to me. As Roa stated, even in a normal game its not much better. As for Finde shes just seemed kind of jumpy. On the last Day she relied on JennyHallu to pick who to vote for, now I know that other people did this as well but I didn't find her reasoning to be all that reasonable.

Sorry for the intrusion but heres something about Grend that caught my eye.

Post #313 she states shes reluctant to start a band-wagon. Why? Is it because she a band-wagonning an innocent would draw the wrong attention and she knows that Nogrod is an innocent? (Due to her being an orc) Also, in the post she quoted, Nogrod was suggesting that Caran played a part in it. Could this be one orc coming to the aid of the other?

In the same post she says the she wouldn't want people to vote someone based on her reasons. I just find it weird that someone would openly be so unsure of themselves. At this stage, to me at least, it looked as if she wouldn't vote Nogrod but then later (Post #339) she does vote for Nogrod and says she doubts he'll get lynched. Now she could have just jumped onto the Kitanna band-wagon but she chose to go the safe way and vote Nogrod.

And today (Post #354) it seems that shes dropped all her suspicion for Nogrod. This contradicts with her saying that she wouldn't cross Nogrod off her suspicion list anytime soon. Nogrod said that he'd defend himself tommorrow if they were still alive, however I don't believe thats happened as of yet.

I'd prefer to wait for Nogrod's post before making any more comments on Finde.

There would be three remaining ones that I would still be unsure of- Naria, Roa, and Caranlondien.

I'd also like to say something about this. If you used the shaman as a basis to determine who is innocent and who is not then know this, on Day 2 the only people who didn't have suspicions against me were Nogrod, Roa and Diamond. True nobody had really made any theories against me but note, at a point it would seem that everyone would have been ready to vote for me except for Nogrod, Roa and Diamond.

*pinches self*

Still alive. I didn't expect that at all. I really thought that either Zali or I would be toast last night. Still, it's good to be here.

Oh? The orcs won't kill Zali because (a) she is one of them or (b) her not being dead yet has given rise to some suspicion. As for yourself, I doubted the orcs would go for you just because I made a claim that I believe you're the shaman. I didn't expect them to kill me either but I think they'd prefer to kill a proven innocent.

[Findëasëa]

Roa:

Roa: There are no hards feeling over that. I don't understand what you're saying though- I'm contributing, helping the village, definitely stating my opinions, and that makes me more suspicios? By that reasoning, Nogrod and Celuien are also highly suspicious. Please explain why I'm standing out.

As I stated when I was voting, I think that Jenny probably put a lot of thought into her post in order to shield her wereorc friends. She would probably not have listed four innocents outright. I find it more likely that she has hidden one of her fellow orcs in the list. I already explained why I feel that Nogrod is innocent.

me: I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

Diamond and Spawn are both obviously innocents. Roa, you are the only one left of the four that I still consider a possible orc. I am using the list given by Jenny as a basis for my argument, and Celuein is not given on this list.

Sleepy:

Sleepy: On the last Day she relied on JennyHallu to pick who to vote for, now I know that other people did this as well but I didn't find her reasoning to be all that reasonable.

I understand that you don’t think my reasoning is solid. I just feel that finding an orc is all about analyzing the little details. If an orc can help it they are not going to leave any convincing evidence. The list left by Jenny probably involved a good deal of thought. I doubt she would have failed to list at least one of the wereorcs.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Honestly, Nogrod... I was just playing. I believe you are innocent.

Don't Know

Caranlondien
Grendelien
Findëasëa
Celuien
Naria (Believe it or not, very clever move for an orc)
Roa_Aoife

Innocent

Zali
Sleepy Ranger
Nogrod