Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Nogrod]

RPG cleared!

Celuien: I hope you will still be sticking around - if we would have some questions for you...

[Caranlondien]

Well, so we've two votes for Roa and one for Findeasea:

Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)

Left to vote:
Caran
Nogrod
Grendelien
Zali
Naria
Roa

Is this list correct?

[Nogrod]

Celuien, I’m again quite baffled about the things you do. You are such careful at times, and then so careless on another times... So it seems, that the time calls for The return of the Devil’s Advocate...


First of all, in #45 You list all the players, according to your suspicions, well almost all the players. Your list has no Jenny (now known and done for orc) in it, even though the numbers are right: Caran in unsuspicious two times...

Then on #67 you say:

I wonder. Should I regret my vote for Diamond?
At the same time, it's an awfully brazen thing for an orc to say.

On the second day you note it would be a bad move to try being a shaman impersonator, then you start talking about your ordoness (#156) and wonder, whether you are still alive the next day (#168) – nice to compare this to #67.

On the third day you firstly downplay Jenny’s posts – and say, the truths, if there are any, will be quite subtle. Then again it has f.ex. turned out, that from Jenny’s “dangerous”-list: Spawn, Roa, Diamond & me, I & we know three to be innocent already – and you weren’t even mentioned in the post(s) (no Celuien!)! If Jenny were listing the innocents, who would be dangerous from an orc point of view, it would have included you too, were you innocent...

From the third day onwards, you have also been defending Naria quite openly. Comparing things again. In #156 you make the second full list of your suspicions (DAY2), having Naria under the title “Really, really don't know”. In the morning (DAY3), you go making a case against Sleepy (not generally known innocent then, but to an orc of course) in #250, saying:

So Sleepy moves to the top of my suspicion list based on day 1. I haven't thought too much about what he's done since then, other than to guess that if he's an orc, Naria is innocent since he went along with Jenny's accusation.

This morning (DAY4) you go on to defend Naria again on #351:

At the end of yesterday's voting/auto-eviction, only Naria remained alive. If Diamond's suspect list was a factor in her selection, that either means Naria is an Orc who killed Diamond to protect herself, or that Naria is innocent and Diamond was killed to start a lynch Naria bandwagon.
Naria doesn't seem to be a bold sort. So I don't think she would have gone for a suspicion causing bluff (look at me! I can't be an Orc if Diamond was killed - it brings to much suspicion on me) as an Orc by killing Diamond. For that reason, I think Diamond's death points to Naria's innocence.

Now earlier you said, that if Sleepy is an orc, Naria is an innocent. As Sleepy turned out innocent, the case might have been left open again? But you will go againg defending Naria (probably a known innocent to an orc). You know, as well as we do, that WW is not so simple, that you can so openly trust someone - even though you had some reasonable grounds for it (and I don't claim you playing simple: far from it, if you are an orc). But it seems a bit odd, that you go on claiming someone's innocence in a dreamer/seer-like fashion.

And what's even more interesting: if people would have started to believe, that you would have had the dream on the night before your first defence of Naria, that would have pointed against my dream - making it look false! That could be exploited maybe tomorrow? Quite nicely weaved, I would say. But happily, Naria (some irony here...?) had the dream of me, and can now somewhat prove my word here.

Lastly this toying with the shaman-stuff. First I was afraid, that you were the shaman – and would be quickly spotted by the orcs. Then I kind of started to believe, that you were making a casual shaman impersonation – and being quite a brave ordo in doing it as offering yourself to the orcs. But just now I have started to think, that whether this vague posture of yours is a disguise towards us villagers, and not towards the orcs?

Well. That's the Devil speaking (against possible orcs? ). I'm not myself so sure, what to make of this. But I would like to hear your assessments...

[Caranlondien]

Celuien certainly looks suspicious. She isn't here, is she? I'd like to hear a defense from her...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(Celuien's) list has no Jenny

Would an orcish Celuien really be so bold, as to leave out one of her compatriots?

My main question is, why is Celuien still alive? (Of course, I remember what happened the last time I asked that question...) Still, if the orcs thought they knew who the Shaman was, wouldn't they go for her (or him)? And, if they thought Zali might get in their way, wouldn't it be better to kill her, too, than to go on like this, trying to cast suspicion on her?

My head hurts from the confusion... Darn you, orcs!

EDIT: incorrectly gendered pronoun; sorry, Celuien!

[Caranlondien]

I'm beginning to think that either Zali or Celuien is an orc. The orcs' kills just don't make sense to me...

[Caranlondien]

Here's the post I was working on when Nogrod posted his analysis of Celuien.

Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy: A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer

I know I'm innocent. I believe the dreams about Nogrod and Sleepy. So the suspects left (for me, at least) are Grendelien, Findëasëa, Celuien, Zali, Naria, and Roa.

Grendelien - It's true that she's playing quite insightfully for a newbie. As I said before, I was once suspected for the same thing, and I was innocent. However, that doesn't mean she is. Now that Nogrod's a confirmed innocent, it does make her attack on him look rather worse, though she's toned that down somewhat.

Findëasëa - As I said earlier, I have a hard time seeing her as anything but a newbie right now, although I'm (of course) still uncertain of her innocence.

Celuien – (See previous posts)

Zali - I just don't see her as bluffing. Unless someone else comes out and says they're the Ranger, I'll believe her.

Naria - She's quiet, doesn't seem to be around much, but when she is, she's quick and to the point. It makes me nervous, but I haven't found anything tangible against her.

Roa - She's been on my suspect list for a while now, and I may end up voting for her. I just need time to digest Nogrod's analysis.

EDIT: cross-posted with Nogrod

[Caranlondien]

Ha, I forgot to go back and change what I said about Zali; I'm still more inclined to believe her innocent, and to suspect Celuien.

[Sleepy Ranger]

I just woke up, its 1am, I see this and something springs into my head. I'll post it and go back to bed so if its flawed then please excuse me.

Last Two Orcs: Grendelien and Naria

This is very short and based entirely on one point, make of it what you will. Naria dreamed of Nogrod, told orc-friend Grendelien. Grendelien immediatly backs off Nogrod.

A bit lame and farfetched but chew on it, toy around, maybe someone can pick something up from here? I won't stop you from voting Roa but in my opinion shes done no wrong.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Nogrod.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't know, Nogrod. That list by Celuien may have just been a mistake, typed out by a tired (or otherwise preoccupied) mind. I wish she would have explained her vote for me better though. I dislike unexplained votes, especially from people who normally have very good explanations. The accused can't really answer them, because no suspicions have been listed. This village has gotten into a bad habit of that lately. I blame last minute voting, really. (Honestly people, yesterDay was just rediculous. Poor Farael having to write up that last minute death scene...) I won't press her untill she's present though. It's really unfair to attack people who you know won't be around to defend themselves.

edit: cross posted with a lot....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Grendelien - It's true that she's playing quite insightfully for a newbie. As I said before, I was once suspected for the same thing, and I was innocent. However, that doesn't mean she is. Now that Nogrod's a confirmed innocent, it does make her attack on him look rather worse, though she's toned that down somewhat.

I myself would be careful with that one too. Remember it was not "my attack", but what came about, as I tried to look at her as an orc... It might be of note, that the one doing such an analysis is innocent, but anyhow, I'm not sure it makes the case worse as such (ok., if she'd be someone's fellow-orc, that analyser might have used some sugary words about her, but from that s/he would have been caught immediately...).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Celuien certainly looks suspicious.

My main question is, why is Celuien still alive? (Of course, I remember what happened the last time I asked that question...) Still, if the orcs thought they knew who the Shaman was, wouldn't they go for her (or him)? And, if they thought Zali might get in their way, wouldn't it be better to kill her, too, than to go on like this, trying to cast suspicion on her?

Certainly looks so. But that's what happens, when you look at people that way...

But I'm also beginning to see the point of your main question better than earlier.

First I thought, that the orcs believed, they had nailed the shaman, and just decided to divert the ranger first (if she could come in between - they surely had sore memories about that), at the same time making her look very suspicious indeed - maybe hoping we would kill her ourselves. And Diamond was a good kill from the orc point of view, and probably safe for them (no rangering to meddle with it).

But really: they risked one more dream with that move too!!! It turned out a dream of me, but it could have turned out a dream of an orc! That would be both bold and confident, to almost being irresponsible orcseying...? How to explain this?

EDIT: X-posted with Caran...