Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

And yes, I agree that the dreamers should reveal dreams--We could really use a nudge in the right direction.

I am also annoyed and not thinking too clearly because I find it ironic that when I actually do my job for once, I'm still getting suspicion, suspicion, and more suspicion.

So fine. I'm sick of defending myself because all I'll do is repeat the same old things over and over--the Orcs are doing a good job of discrediting me.

So I'm done defending myself.

I'm done repeating myself.

I'll say again--lynch me if you want, but it will only put you one step closer to losing.

ETA: Cross-posted with Grendelien--Thank you very much

[Caranlondien]

Wow, I'm glad the Shaman chose to dream of you, Zali! I trust Grendelien's dream, although, of course, that doesn't mean I trust her. So now (I, at least) know that the orcs are among Naria, Roa, and Grendelien. The problem is, when I look at those three, they all look suspicious... but one of them is innocent.

Grendelien makes some good points about Roa, but I still think she's suspicious-looking. She appears helpful, but I can't get much of substance out of her posts. I've been so suspicious of her for the last few Days that I think I'll have to go back over her posts to be fair. As for your latest point, Grend, Roa was actually casting more suspicion on Findeasea by implying that the only way Find would have known about Jenny's style would be through the PMs of wereorcs.

Grendelien looks to be in a good position by revealing the dream and upping the number of known innocents. Could be an innocent truly trying to help, could be an orc hoping the points she earns here will protect her from being lynched. And, depending on Roa's status, she may be defending a fellow orc.

Naria is the one I suspect most right now. Her most recent post seems almost like a set-up for her partner orc to reveal as the "Ranger":

Originally Posted by Naria

I too am getting very worried about why Zali is still alive. I think she may be lying through her rotten little Orc teeth. I mean come on, one night....sure, two nights....maybe, but three nights....tsk, I really doubt that a werecreature would want to carry on wanting to kill villagers and have an obstacle in the way like the Ranger night after night. Yeah, maybe it could have been part of their plan, but I highly doubt that it would go on for this long. I would like to believe that she is the Ranger(and did) but this is just too much to swallow. Since she has already admitted to being the Ranger than it probably won't bother her too much to tell us who she protected last night.

She also continue to push Celuien on the Shaman-business, perhaps an orcish move to get their Shaman-suspect lynched the after a failed attempt at killing her last night?

My vote toDay may very well be for Naria. Her post prior to toDay's revelations makes me strongly suspect her.

EDIT: replaced "make" with "makes" - subject verb agreement is important!

[Grendelien]

Oh, I interpretted the reply as being that there was no correspondence between Jenny and Findeasea. I see your point now, about PMing.

[Caranlondien]

I also don't know if Grendelien would be so foolish as to connect herself so strongly with a guilty Roa, so I'm not sure that's really a point against her. Unless she's finally making a newbie mistake :P

EDIT: x-posted with Grendelien

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ok, so now that I've had my mini-rant here (see my last two posts), I feel like I should get down to business.

I think it is highly likely that Naria will be getting a vote from me again toDay. It's not really a retribution for suspecting me so strongly--I'd be put off by her post whether or not its target was me. It would probably be almost funny if I was an orc: I'd be able to smile and perhaps make the part about me "lying through...orc-teeth" my sig line. However, I agree with Caranlodien that her last post does look like a set-up for some other orc to come along and say that they were really the ranger.

And Naria, if you're so convinced I'm an orc, why did you want to know who I protected last night--it's obvious that whatever I say, you can and will use against me.

And about Naria, herself, I think that she is either an orc (most likely) or just very ensnared by orcish plans. She has given a prime example of what everyone else is SUPPOSED to think about me (except that I am confirmed innocent now--thanks, Grendelien).

I'm much more inclined to think she's an orc, though.

[Naria]

First off, I would like to offer my apologies to Zali. We needed to know for sure what was going on and what your role was. Yes you came out and declared yourself the Ranger, but that didn't necessarily mean you were(for sure). Thanks to Gren for saying that yes you are the Ranger, I have no doubts whatsoever now that you are the Ranger.

I also added Celuien in there because I thought that she may be the true Ranger and just beating around the bush about it. I honestly didn't think that she was faking to be the Shaman....her hints came across to me as Rangerish. Now that I know better of the two of you, there will be no more talk from me about this issue. So thanks to both of you for what you have done for the village.


I know that I am innocent and implore you all to trust me on this
Nogrod
Sleepy
Zali
Celuien

Then there's just two left(Orcs)
Caran
Gren

Roa, I just don't know about....but I believe her to be innocent.

[Nogrod]

I love the news concerning Zali!
(Purely from villager's point of view, her orcishness revealed, would of course have been "better", but I have kind of trusted Zali so far, so I'm very happy with this)

It's looking far better now, anyhow. Okay, there is this chance of 1/4 x 1/8 =1/32 (? - I'm so terribly bad in probability maths), that Grendelien getting the dream is an orc and Zali another - and that the dream was of Zali. I wouldn't bet on it a penny, or a cent just now. If a rivalling ranger-claim comes forwards, I might think of it - we all should - but before it, I'm taking this as granted from now on. We have under four hours of time, and yet to pick a wolf today.

So I just came back, and have to see the things again...

EDIT: (again...) X-posted with Naria

[Caranlondien]

I have to go eat, and I’ve only gotten through Day 3 on my analysis of Roa (I already analyzed her Day 1 & 2, and I just don’t have the energy to go back through it).

Roa:

[B]Day Three[B]

#237: Wonders why the orcs killed Spawn instead of Zali. Thinks perhaps Jenny didn’t mention any of the other orcs, although maybe she did. Says we can’t be sure that Zali is the Ranger. Says we should go back and figure out why the orcs killed Spawn.

#239: Thinks it’s strange that Nogrod would suggest we don’t try to figure out the orcs’ strategy until toMorrow.

#244: Clarifies that she just doesn’t want us to proceed with the assumption that Zali is innocent. Doesn’t think the true Ranger should come out if Zali is lying. Also thinks we shouldn’t agonize over Jenny’s final posts, as they’ll likely just distract and confuse us.

#245: Says she’s just tossing out possibilities.

#274: Says that just because Nogrod got a dream doesn’t mean he’s innocent. Says Diamond isn’t above suspicion just because Jenny was attacking her.

#289: Lists those who Jenny did not mention (all of whom are now proven innocents except me). Says that from this list, she most suspects Kitanna. Wonders about Zali’s statement that Jenny was too good of a player, since Zali didn’t seem to make much of a case against her.

#290: Lists the vote count, wonders who we haven’t heard from so far.

#293: Summarizes Kitanna’s actions so far.

#294: Analyzes summary on Kitanna. Says she seems careful and she’d like to hear more from her.

#295: Says that only [B]Legolas iS[/U] hasn’t posted yet.

#300: Warns Zali to be careful about what she says, if she really is the Ranger, as the orcs might figure out whom she’s going to protect.

#302: Votes for Kitanna; mistakes closing time as an hour earlier.

#305: Says it doesn’t really matter that she mistook the time, as her opinion probably won’t change.

#309: Asks Grendelien if she has anything to add, since she’s here.

#312: Decries self-voters, saying that if Kitanna truly is innocent, she’d help the village more by trying to prove that than by helping to lynch herself. Says that it actually makes her look more like an orc trying to bluff her way out of dying.

#315: In response to Nogrod’s analysis of Caran, points out that two quotes of mine which Nogrod said are contradictory aren’t.

#318: Responds to Nogrod’s response.

#319: Relists vote count.

#331: Lists those who have already voted.

#333: Urges those left to vote to hurry. (There are a couple more posts like this, so I’ll just leave them out).

#336: Defends herself against Findeasea’s accusations. Says she thinks she has been contributing a great deal.

My thoughts: It’s funny, I only noticed this because in one of her early posts, she asked if she could call me “Caran”, but I noticed that she calls Grendelien “Gren” when no one else has. Perhaps she didn’t feel like typing in the whole name, or perhaps she got used to the “Gren” thing PM-ing the Night before…

What really strikes me, though, is her apparent helpfulness, while she really says very little besides poking holes in people’s theories and generally promoting confusion.

[Roa_Aoife]

Grendelien, how do you know we can trust Celuien?

This is likely the last post I can make today, sorry. (Visiting friends). I don't know if I trust Grendelien or Zali. By all accounts, Zali shouldn't be alive. It's possible that this is just a last chance attempt by the Orcs to protect their own and force the real protector out into the open. Certainly we wouldn't suspect again until it was too late. I urge the village to be careful in trusting these two. Something about this is a little too convenient.

++Zali

I can't believe she would be the real ranger and still alive after this.

Edit: Cross posted with last three.

[Nogrod]

Roa!

You are either too sincere, or then a frustrated wolf. And I really can't say which, for now...

But I must say, that vote of yours looks very suspicious! For your chance of being right seems to be 1/32. Well, that's a chance - and we should not openly outrule it, but still, I wouldn't bet on it...

Must come back to reading this.

[Nogrod]

Btw. Roa (again)

The only good reason to kill Zali tonight is another ranger-revelation. You know that as well as we others know it... So why this vote?

Or maybe it's you two? As you see, suspicions are easy to throw at people. I would like to see better. But still, I do not like Roa's sudden vote at all.

I try to make something like a Sherlock Holmes -puzzle, trying to cross-examine different possible pairs. It might take a while, but I'll keep my eye open and see the thread every now and then.