WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Valier]

I'm not quite certain as to why Kath yet.....She seems to be just out of eye's view...I don't know if that makes any sense I will read her posts again and see if anything stands out, but again I have a hard time coming up with concrete evidence as to why I find people guilty. Jenny was the only one that even remotely surprised me...I thought for sure she was to be found an Ordo....

[Mithalwen]

Well I was far from certain ...it was just the culmination of little things that kept her at the top of the tree.... so it was a good call of yours btw -kudos!

[mormegil]

Let me give a brief run down of Kath's votes.

Day 1 she voted Sleepy to tie him with Nilp at 2 a piece.

Day 2 she voted Morm and put me up 4 to 2 against Spawn and this was after Glirdan's 'revelation'

Day 3 she again voted Morm to tie me with Jenny.

For somebody who claims to be innocent she sure seems to be helping the Ducks out. The goose wouldn't know to whom to help. I know what will be argued, that nobody knows if I am guilty or innocent though if I am innocent Kath looks awfully suspicious, well I say if you don't want to kill Kath today, kill me then Kath tomorrow when it's shown I am innocent.

If I do die today please don't discount the possibility that SpM might be a Duck. I doubt it is the case but the possibility exists. I would hate to see three people left and SpM be one of them and the remaining villagers don't look at him because he's a known innocent. Again I'm by no means advocating killing him at this point just please don't forget this if it comes to that point at the end.

[Mithalwen]

Actually Morm.... I am not likely to vote for you today because I think that you were the prime candidate for both my dream and Ang's victim - unless I read yesterday completely wrong. I am looking at Kath but I am far from discounting Nogrod and Lote if we have a cursed duck.....

[Valier]

Question? So how come Glirdan's role says innocent? Was he in fact the Goose? Diamond never mentioned anything about two Owls! Just the cursed villager, So was he a crazy Ordo or the Goose? and if the Goose, how come it says Ordo as his role after his death?

[mormegil]

Valier the only roles we see at death are the Ducks not goose or hawk, though he was obvious. But if the owl or nightingale die we will not see any thing but ordo.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

Question? So how come Glirdan's role says innocent? Was he in fact the Goose? Diamond never mentioned anything about two Owls! Just the cursed villager, So was he a crazy Ordo or the Goose? and if the Goose, how come it says Ordo as his role after his death?

I think that we do not know any of hte roles after death. I think Ang's is given because it is the only way we get two deaths and he declared himself.

I do suspect that Glirdan was an owl since so much of his distress mirrored mine. But we have to cope with the situation we have which is not knowing.

I wonder if maybe the Nightingale mayhave pulled a brave bluff and not protected me last night? Not expecting a declaration but .... not impossible...

I am suspecting Kath a bit more as I read. Does occur that we should bear in mind that our ducks would have known about their extra and so maybe reactions to my suggestion of 2 owls should be examined? After all they may have either been the most dismissive (believing the cursed was it, or more receptive since they knew the situation was not as it seemed?

I am thinking aloud here becasue I am most likely tonights kill. Just things to consider .. I haven't reached that point in my read through

[Mithalwen]

Why is everyone so quiet.... ? I am so tired..if anyone is there speak!!! I must go soon and I shall not return before night .... please? Anyone..the silence is suspicious at least for hte europeans...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

If I do die today please don't discount the possibility that SpM might be a Duck.

Regretfully, I must concede that, as far as the rest of you are concerned, it remains a possibility. There is little I can say to change this, but I can assure you that you will do better to look elsewhere for the remaining Duck.

So, we are left with two “known innocents”: Mith and Valier.

Having reread everything since the start, I have seen nothing to alter my original assessment that Cailín is most likely innocent. That, in itself concerns me, since she is a skilful player and would no doubt be adept at remaining hidden, if a Duck. But it’s not nearly enough to merit vote for her today.

Nogrod seemed genuine (if misguided) in his Day 1 attempt to provoke discussion of Owl strategy. But, there does seem to have been a perceptible change in his approach from Day 2 on. He moved away from discussing strategies and (seemingly) became much more helpful. At the time - I thought the change was for the better and it seemed to confirm his innocence. But now, a change in behaviour from Day 1 to Day 2 looks mighty suspicious. Like morm, he flip-flopped on the Mith/Glirdan revelations - possibly hedging his bets (not knowing which was the Goose and which the Owl)? If the Cursed Duck is the one who remains among us, he is a distinct possibility.

Lote voted for Nilp on Day 1 to put him ahead on two votes. But the Ducks may well have thought that Nilp would not attract enough votes to be lynched, as his traditional Day 1 approach is often overlooked as “Nilp just being Nilp”. A possible Duck-on-Duck vote, then. She believed Mith’s declaration (and followed Mith in voting for Roa). But then, after Glirdan’s declaration, she said she “had a bad feeling about Mith” in the first place” and was “not surprised she is lying”. These later statements very much mirror JennyHallu’s approach to the Day 2 revelations. Yesterday, she continued to believe Glirdan’s claim in preference to Mith’s and voted for Mith - possibly hoping to get Mith lynched? I am now very suspicious of Lote. She could be one of the original Ducks, or (in light of her Day 1 vote for Nilp) she might equally be the Cursed Duck.

I have seen nothing to suggest Duckishness on the part of Kath, other than her voting pattern as outlined by morm. Certainly, if morm is innocent, then Kath’s voting pattern does looks extremely suspicious.

I have already outlined (yesterday and today) why I find mormegil suspicious. Also, on re-reading everything, his defensiveness struck me. Not just yesterday. He has responded to every little suspicion voiced against him with careful reasoning. His suggestion that we might want to kill him today and then, when he is shown to be innocent (as he claims will be the case), kill Kath speaks in his favour. Yet, perhaps it is a ploy to make him look innocent. In any event, it is perhaps not such a bad plan …

So, a number of possible candidates for lynching. I am inclined to vote for Lote, as I currently find the case against her most compelling. However, there may be merit in a vote for morm, since it may either catch us a Duck or identify one in the form of Kath.

Back later with more thoughts and a vote.

[mormegil]

SpM I don't quite understand why 'flip-flopping', as you call it, on the Mith/Glirdan issue is such a big deal. I'm not sure if you were around at that time, I was, and it was incredibly confusing. I wouldn't call it hedging your bets but rather being open minded and willing to accept that either could be the owl or perhaps both. We are still uncertain as Mith pointed out. If only Glirdan had dreamt his last night we would know.

He has responded to every little suspicion voiced against him with careful reasoning.

Have I? I thought I merely found major points and set them straight. I feel like I've been one of the more analytical and helpful individuals here. I've been quoting and bringing up points about others and feel that my analysis of Nilp voters/nonvoters, Jenny, Kath and willingness to accept Glirdan as the owl seem to point to my innocence, but of course in your mind that makes me all the more guilty . You my friend may just be the goose if Glirdan were in fact the owl, because I tend to think Mith may have had a point about it.

[Mithalwen]

Right.

When I did my exhasutive read through yesterday, I came to the conclusion that the last duck was the cursed duck and that it was most likely Lote.

Now I am not sure. Kath seems to be taking a relative backseat. This isn't necessarily suspicious since there have been a lot of noisy players and I know there are RL factors but then, I always suspect people who I know to be very strong are not quite living up to expectations....

Nogrod... I do think he has changed ..he wasn't sorry when I cleared him.... I do feel uneasy....

Cailin, I think innocent. Will be v. surprised if she turns out to be the duck. Apart from her odd little statement of who she wouldn't vote for at the beginning, she has played a very natural game reacting sensibly to the twists and turns.

SpM, though he is no longer a cert, I trust. This may be foolish but he has come up trumps for me and I will stick with him....

Morm - I still think it unlikely he would have gone for Ang yesterday.


So I must choose between Kath, Lote and Nogrod. If we have an original wolf, JKath is likeliest I think.

If a cursed wolf - Lote .... so why am I so uneasy about Nogrod..... because I can no longer trust what I thought I knew....

A few more minutes then I must vote or I will not be safe to drive home - I haven't had a proper nights sleep since the game began .... sorry..but I am exhausted .....