Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Naria]

ThanksPhantom that paints a much clearer picture for me concerning the EW and the GW.

See Daffy, that's all you had to do ....I have no use for an Iron cooking rack, my mother does all of the cookery anyway

[Naria]

*Tumble weed rolls through the center of town*

Sorry for the triple post, but it seems that I am the only one around right now and as I don't feel like talking to myself at the moment....I will sign off and go to bed.

I will be back in about ten hours or so from now.

[the phantom]

Like Naria, I also must take a break. There are a few things that Alca and Cailin want me to take care of at home, and I mustn't disappoint my Mom and Dad.

Plus, I promised Zali I'd cook her dinner tonight, so I've got those preparations to make as well. And don't worry, Diamond, I'll have your little angel back well before nightfall, so there's no need to brandish that fearsome looking battledore.

[Diamond18]

Yes... well, all that about the EW having more to fear than the GW and wanting to stay hidden as long as possible has been discussed as we've been, er, heeding the Watchers prophecy and preparing for the day when the Shadow arrived. The thing that holds me up is wondering how exactly this fear will be apparent in the the EW's posts. Which brings me back around to expecting that the EW will be relatively quiet, banking on slipping just under our watchfulness. Being too quiet is suspicious in and of itself, so we'll be looking for someone riding the middle ground. Problem is, in a village this size, the middle ground will be a vast field full of gopher holes. Nasty little buggers, those. You've got to sneak up from behind and smack them over the heads or... er... I digress.

The only thing my ruminations lead me to is thinking that the EW won't be among the loud players. But then, uh oh, I realize that maybe that's just the sort of logic EW is banking on and he might be trying The Purloined Letter technique instead: hiding in plain sight. Which leaves me with -- the EW could be loud or moderately quiet, ergo, the candidates will consist of a good two thirds of the village.

Finally, I've consulted my Werewolf lorebooks, and they say:

Originally Posted by Werewolf Lorebooks

When a red fox and a brown cow frolic in the ocean, you will know who the Wizards are.

Bloody lot of help the lorebooks turned out to be. *chucks lorebooks into the fire*

[Cailín]

My my. That is quite tragic. Elempi dead? He was the only one in this village who made me feel young still, yes indeed he was, and such a kind man too. But all must die, eventually, I suppose, and with my notoriously bad fortune, I would not be surprised if I were next. Yes, yes. Oh, the sadness of it all.

I see one of my most beloved sons has already been trying to take charge of events. Yes, all as expected. Well, that is very well, but let us attempt not to take him so seriously. Extended adventuring has done funny things to his head, I sometimes fear. Though, mind you, Alcarillo and I have raised him very well indeed and there is –I assure you- not a trace of wickedness to be found in the brave lad.

As to what he keeps hidden beneath his cloak, perhaps we should ask Zali about that.

And, considering the charges laid against my other son, I must ask you all to back off. I shall be the one to decide if and when he needs a good lynching. Yes, indeed. Aside from tormenting his poor mother, he has done little wrong in his life. I think. I must confess, it’s hard to keep track of them both sometimes.

It seems to me, truly, that what we as a village should do is trying to aid the Good Wizard in finding the Evil Wizard as soon as possible. Amidst these masses of more or less suspicious people, it would be nearly impossible to find the two fanged ones anyway. Also, those who are guilty today, could be pure as the snow tomorrow. There are only two consistent men or women here… and those are the ones we should watch. I agree with the phantom here: the advantage of the Good Wizard is plainly that he does not fear death. Whether we shall see evidence of this in posting, I cannot tell.

There are more pressing matters to deal with, however. Fea, dear, are you sure you do not wish to remarry? I found such a great match for you. Trust me.

[Gurthang]

That's interesting stuff, phantom. I agree. But with all your knowledge of how wizards think and such, maybe you are one...

So that still leaves us with... not much at all. Maybe a few unlikely plans... some probable wizard thoughts... some baseless accusations. From what I've read in the lorebooks, the ones I could save from the fire anyway *glares at Diamond*, I think that's what usually happens the Day after the first person is killed by wolves. But I'd still feel better if we had a plan.

I think the phantom's onto something, but what can we do with it? It's like Diamond said: the EW will likely be quiet, but of course he knows we'll think that so he'll purposely be loud. And that leads us to double, triple and even more unrealistic levels of bluffing.

I guess we'll have to hope for the best of luck. But now I also must go take a nap, and shortly after that, I'll have to go catch up on all my stable work that I'm getting behind in. *sigh*

[Lhunardawen]

Hmm...this is too much to think about...

I haven't seen this covered in the rules (or I must be really blind)...but are the Wizards allowed to reveal themselves? Outright? To the village?

If not, well, then, we'll really have to come up with a way to expose the Evil Wizard for who he is.

If they are, I wonder if it would be best for the Good Wizard to reveal himself now. Surely the EW would think twice before challenging him to a battle, since, as the phantom said, he would want a lot of werewolves on his side. The werewolves can't kill him by Night anyway. The only problem with this is if someone pulls a bluff.

But I'm not yet really sure what the rule book states.

Anyways, I think this is the best time for us to utilize everything we've learned from history. Surely we know most of the others well enough to guess who the Wizards could be, and who they could have scried/cursed? The best thing for us to do right now is think: If I'm the EW, who would I want to do the kills for me?

I'll let you answer that since I'm not quite prepared to drop names for now. And sure, the EW could have had someone more unique in mind, but the events last Night seems to prove otherwise. They both want the same people. It's up to us to guess who those could have been.

There, my nonsense First Day post.

[Cailín]

I do not think the Good Wizard should reveal himself so hastily. The Evil Wizard has more to fear from a hidden enemy - if he knows which villager fights against him, he could better anticipate his actions.

It's up to the Good Wizard.

As to speculating who the choices were... this village is filled with cunning and talented liars and traitors. I am not sure whether it would be helpful to try answer that question. I could come up with a few names.

What is interesting, however, is that the wizards themselves were chosen and chose to be wizards, too. Something worth remembering, perhaps.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Caílin

As to speculating who the choices were... this village is filled with cunning and talented liars and traitors. I am not sure whether it would be helpful to try answer that question. I could come up with a few names.

I'm sure we all do. A lot are talented, but there are only a few who are immensely notable.

But my guess is that even if we have ideas who these people could be, we will be unwilling to lynch them knowing how much help they could be if they were scried. I am reminded (good thing my memory serves me well or else I'll have to chasten my own mother *s at Diamond*) by an event in the past when a certain person named Kuruharan was lynched because his fellow villagers were uncertain of his loyalty, though they were loathe to do it for he contributed much. In that case the lynching turned out to be fortunate, since he was cursed. But will we have the will to do it again?

What is interesting, however, is that the wizards themselves were chosen and chose to be wizards, too. Something worth remembering, perhaps.

Aye. Who have the most time in their hands? Hmm...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

There are more pressing matters to deal with, however. Fea, dear, are you sure you do not wish to remarry? I found such a great match for you. Trust me.

I was rather enjoying being single. Still... who might it be?

Originally Posted by Thinlo

I would rather not have people voting preventively, with reasons "oh, the EW might have chosen him/her, since s/he is so xxx" or "s/he's too dangerous if s/he is turned into a lycantrophe, let's kill him/her". That's so wrong that it screams.

At the risk of dying early, I have to say that this is a pretty good idea and shouldn't be discounted due to dubious morality. Why leave those around that you trust that much less than others? Then again, it's rather reassuring to have people around that you don't trust because at least then you aren't totally without target. Whichever way, don't be so quick to deny possible strategies; it makes you look nervous.

I also agree with whomever it was that mentioned searching out the wizards. It gives us a legitimate project for day one. It will put them off guard. Sure, it would mean sacrificing the good wizard in all probability, but since the good wizard lives to die in such a way, I won't feel too badly about it. Consider: who would expect that an entire village would gang up on their wizards? Surely we would want to keep our good wizard around. Blah blah pros and cons blah blah. With the pressure of an entire village actively seeking, the evil wizard will have to be REALLY good to avoid screwing up.

Since we can't get rid of our evil'uns until the evil wizard is gone, it's in our best interest to kill him/her as quickly as possible.

As for me... I'll be in and out over the next few hours until I have to go [tend sheep]. I can't guarantee that I won't disappear again... I hope more than you can imagine that I won't, but I can't guarantee it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

What's the point in saying "I trust so-and-so"? I'm assuming this refers to thinking like "I trust Loki less than I trust Saucepan Man". Where does this get us? In this village, at this moment, it is totally irrelevant.

Maybe I just misunderstand what you are saying, Fea.

Now, I'm just saying, that if I were a wizard, of any persuasion, I would have chosen Lalaith. She's my number one pick for the wolf-who-was-cured. And I base that on pretty much nothing but a feeling.

I'm just saying.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The point is, there are some players that, when wolf and when innocent, act noticably different. There are some players that you are more confident in your ability to gague. And there are some that you will never understand regardless of anything pertaining to anything else. Mormegil, for instance: if he's a wolf, we're screwed; we'll never know... it would be mere whim that would ever have us catch the dear.

See what I mean? If you kill the players that you are completely uncertain that you'll ever be able to nail down in any situation, you'll simplify your own life.

Of course, the village would be more boring without them, but you might keep your sanity longer.

[JennyHallu]

Well I'm back, I've read over everything and have decided that I need to go read over some things more carefully. I'll probably be voting between 4 and 5 hours early, so be warned. It seems it has taken us a good 12 hours to come to the conclusion that we ought to out the Evil Wizard, which is certainly slow moving for a village of so many souls.

I have had a few thoughts: In the first post, Loki claimed to be the reclaimed wolf, but SPM, you didn't even mention that in your "lists", making up three possible wolf teams that did not include Loki at all. That struck me as odd, if not a little careless coming from you. My poor Celuien! Whyever did she marry you?

I hate to admit it, as I love to disagree with a particular supernatural phenomenon, but his analysis of the motivations and fears of each of the Wizards makes a good deal of sense, and seem very well thought out indeed. Thank you, one among many semi-anonymous ghouls.

Now I wish to read more closely the ruminations of Nogrod, the Fool. Be back with more thoughts.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

At the risk of dying early, I have to say that this is a pretty good idea and shouldn't be discounted due to dubious morality. Why leave those around that you trust that much less than others? Then again, it's rather reassuring to have people around that you don't trust because at least then you aren't totally without target. Whichever way, don't be so quick to deny possible strategies; it makes you look nervous.

I didn't say we should rightaway discard the tactic, I just said in my opinion we should preferably look at the actions of the people, not at the people themselves. I repeat that I'm afraid that if we start to use only one viewpoint we won't get very far and in the worst scenario we'll be blind to what really is going on and who is who.

I'm afraid the EW is reading this thread and laughing. This confusion serves him/her very well, I fear.

And who wouldn't be nervous in a maniac game like this?

edit: x-posted with Jenny

[Eonwe]

Well, I am here, after a long journey from my woodlands cottage.

I've browsed the thread and read snippets here and there, but didn't really find much to interest me, except for this:

Originally Posted by Diamond, my illustrious mother-in-law

This includes Nogrod, Lhuna, Zali, Firefoot, and if he's a really good boy, Eonwe.

You see Mom, I'm a good little boy, a good little boy...

Anyway, I'll try me best.

I haven't much to post right now, but I promise to actually read the thread right after this post and come back with something or other.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I didn't say we should rightaway discard the tactic, I just said in my opinion we should preferably look at the actions of the people, not at the people themselves.

But some people act really weird. Always. You can't trust actions. You can trust that there are some people you'll never trust.

I like my logic. I dunno about you guys.

[Kitanna]

Kitanna ~ Will eat her beau for midnight snack before the game is over.

Diamond, how ever did you learn my plan?

Loki seems to have gathered some suspicion around himself.

I am, obviously, the best pick(And, being newest to the forums) and least suspicious of the group. Chances are good that I would not have been considered to be anything evil and wrong... just yet

This caught my eye when I first read it and then I see Nogrod also feels this comment needs to be watched. Nogrod also mentioned Loki's "wolfish" defense of himself ofone little comment made. I'm not really concerned about that it's his first game and Day one. It's not all that surprising he's a bit jumpy. But the comment above has me worried. What exactly is Loki trying to tell us? Trying to taunt us?

I merely remarked that being new to the game would make me appear to be rather UN-canine in nature. A very good choice to curse, if you would. However, if you do so wish to ignore this offer of insight upon the thought processes of those who had attempted to transmogrify me, be it well on yourself. Think of it as me being a wolf. It's your bloody loss, villager. Unless, of course, you are a wolf, and turning suspicions on me is naught but a not-so-clever scheme to remove suspicions from yourself. Bear in mind, lycanthrope, that when I am lynched, eyes will turn upon thee...

An open challenge to Nogrod? And he says "when" he's lynched, not "if" he's lynched.
Also Loki says since this is his first game he is less likely to be accussed of wolvery. Not true in my opinion and saying that only brings more suspicion on him.

But moving on the plan Gurthang set forth and phantom elaborated on is a good one.

Now, phantom makes the situation sound pretty bright for us, but that's what the Evil Wizard would like to do; to make the Villagers believe that we don't have much to be scared of.

A terrifying idea. Phantom the EW? I'd rather not think about it. The plan is still a good one and the things the EW should fear still hold true.

Well I really must run now, but I shall return in an hour or so to contribute some more.