Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Caran

I don't think, though, that the GW should declare him/herself. It's up to his/her discretion when to declare, and until then, it's best to stay hidden, in case the EW gets into a good position to challenge before the GW does.

Originally Posted by Caran

I also find Lhuna's suggestion about the GW revealing him/herself slightly odd. It doesn't seem like a good idea to me

Originally Posted by Spawn

I think it's a bigger blow to the Village to be left without all three Gifteds and fewer wolves than with a fully functioning trio of gifts and a wolf or two more.

Originally Posted by Spawn

I find there to be something odd in Lhuna's behaviour.
Firstly, I don't agree with her suggestion that the GW might want to reveal themselves now...
Now that the GW has no Gifteds on his/her side, and there are two wolves among 30 villagers, the numbers wouldn't be very favourable for us.

No. I completely disagree with you guys. There is nothing wrong with Lhuna asking the GW to reveal. He doesn't fear a wizard challenge now. It's better for the village (worse for the EW) to have 2 wolves versus nearly thirty innocents than it is to have 10 wolves, 3 gifteds, and 10 innocents, so just because we don't have gifteds does not mean the wolves have a greater advantage now.

Honestly, what are the odds of one of the two wolves surviving down to the end? Pretty darn low.

Anyone who is saying or thinking that the EW may want to challenge soon is off their rocker. The EW wants things to drag on as long as possible. The EW WILL NOT CHALLENGE EARLY.

He will wait and wait and wait, and will only challenge if he has several wolves and gets lucky during the night (he ungifts someone or his wolves kill a gifted or two- that would be the perfect time to challenge).

Here's a bit more yapping and strategy from me...

The GW is bound to be discovered by the time the population favors the EW (he can be discovered through lynching, wolf kill, or EW curse). In addition, the GW wants to preserve his gifteds and lynch wolves, therefore he will feel considerable pressure to step forward and provide the village with safe lynch candidates.

There is nothing for the GW to fear right now, and odds say he won't escape detection long enough for it to be profitable, not to mention there is the risk of losing his gifteds in the daily lynch without his guidance.

The GW WILL REVEAL himself by the end of Day 3, or at the latest Day 4 (could be as early as tomorrow). Revealing himself is the logical thing to do. Each day he will lead our lynch mob. He will provide two or three candidates whom he knows aren't gifted or Seer-dreamed-innocent, and we will pick from them. He will also take all of his scry info and the Seer's dream info and pass it to at least one other gifted besides the Seer so that even when he is gone all knowledge will be preserved in at least two individuals.

It is also possible that one wolf will be held back as a Hunter target. In other words, if the Seer finds a Wolf tonight, the GW will leave him alone and will not try and uncurse him or get him lynched, but instead pass that wolf's name to the Hunter in case the Hunter is killed. That way, he'll have a guaranteed wolf kill.

That could be very valuable late in the game. If there are only a couple wolves left and the Hunter is the last of the gifteds, he could go ahead and reveal himself, tell the village outright the results of all Seer dreams and GW scries up to that point (but leave out the identity of the known wolf), and then that night when the wolves slay him he takes one of them down.

A terrifying idea. Phantom the EW? I'd rather not think about it.

Actually, I don't think it's that terrifying. What are the odds that I will escape the attention of both the GW and the Seer? Not too high. Phantom=EW would lead to a resounding villager victory, I assure you.

Lastly, I have decided to blindly trust Sauce until the Wizards die. As I said earlier, Sauce and I both might be attractive wolves for the EW to pick, but he would want to do it late in the game. And even then it would be risky.

I'm going to trust the GW and Seer to take care of Sauce, and listen to what he has to say.

That's all I have time for right now. I have a bit of business to attend to. I'll be back later.

[Nogrod]

I must agree with Phantom. I jut can't see any reason of the EW picking up her/his wolves from the stack of Spm, Spawn, Ang etc.. That would be very risky indeed. A wise EW would pick her/his chances differently. And we shall see these dynamics unfold in the days to become.

The EW would like to engage the "good players" into her/his camp, but the first day s/he would not be so bold? Spm, Spawn, Morm, Ang, etc. would be great assets to the EW along the game - as they had first built up an appearance of innocence. But then, they would be too obvious.

I'm really scared about those that have not posted yet - or just have posted namely. I will have to look at that too. Basically voting for those who do not share the game anyhow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Just checking: Does this day end in 3 hours? So many votes still to come!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Just checking: Does this day end in 3 hours? So many votes still to come!

No, it is ending in 5 hours.

I'm convinced about the phantom's theory. It just makes sense. Nogrod is talking sense as well. But that doesn't release them from my suspicion.