Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Glirdan]

I don't know, Glirdy. While my father often said he'd like to kill my poor husband, I don't think there's much evidence for his being a wolf. Of course, there isn't much evidence of anything from yesterday. How like a politician. But I'd rather that we didn't start throwing random accusations at him for his personal dislike of my marriage. I'd prefer not to lose any more of my family for the present.

Like I said, I didn't want to sound accusatory but we must look at all possible options.

Btw, crossposted in my other post with those above me

[Alcarillo]

It looks like I have some defending to do.

If I were a wolf (which I'm not), and I killed the Saucepan Man, what good would that do me? If people said "Oh, it's too risky, Alc would never do it" and my fiendish plot succeeded, there'd be no guaranteeing I'd be thought of as innocent for long when anybody can be turned into a wolf any night. And then there'd be the risk of people saying "Alc's double bluffing. He's a wolf! ++Alc!". And then I'd be dead as a door-nail. I could either gain temporary innocence or die really quick. Why would I risk it when I can just lay low and survive far longer?

Whatever people would say, there'd certainly be plenty of discussion about me. Why on earth would I want this attention?! You people know my ancestors' methods of survival: laying low, keeping quiet. This doesn't fit with me killing Saucie. I'm not a werewolf, and if I were, I wouldn't be as dumb as killing Saucie.

And besides, Saucie always had a beer at hand whenever I returned to port, and he was most understanding of my son's courtship with Kitanna, having had a rocky time with in-laws himself.

[mormegil]

Okay, first sorry about yesterday's inactivity. Hopefully it won't happen again.

Second, I cannot for the life of me understand why you killed of Loki. He screamed innocence to me and I do believe he was the double pick of the night. I do not know this for certain but his claims rang true in my ears. I actually didn't find him offensive or rude and think that many of you who went after him should feel slightly ashamed at yourselfs for ganging up on him. I haven't decided yet if I believe the EW is in the group of votes for him or not. Lalaith's 'cannon fodder' idea makes great sense and that is why I consider that to be a possibility.

Third, I plea to slow down!!! 200 posts! That's just ridiculous. There is no way a sane person can keep up with that. For the next day or two we should try and keep a small check on our post and not go overboard in size or quantity.

Fourth, the phantom is innocent! I can sense it in him and there are others that I believe are innocent such as Eomer, Fea, Firefoot, Spawn, Roa and others that I can't think of currently. That was yesterday and today could change that.

Fifth, GW please get your pick in quickly and everybody WAKE UP and check periodically to see if you are a new gifted. We cannot afford to loose dreams or protections.

Finally Celuien, Diamond and Glirdan are looking rather suspicious today though admittedly I am posting this after reading only a couple of today's posts. But all of their reactions seem markedly odd. Though I am sorry for my poor daughter and granddaughters for their loss. Even though I didn't always agree with the chap he treated my family well enough.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Second, I cannot for the life of me understand why you killed of Loki.

I cannot speak for everyone, but it seems to me most of them explained their votes pretty clearly anyway. As for myself, I have already explained my logic ad nauseum. Which must mean that my logic is a foreign language to you. Which is fair enough, I suppose. But, as you may be able to tell from my location line, I like to try understanding other people's logic even if it does not match my own and isn't something I really approve of.

I actually didn't find him offensive or rude and think that many of you who went after him should feel slightly ashamed at yourselfs for ganging up on him.

Well I don't. And I never will. I could go on to explain just why I did find him offensive and rude, complete with quotes and such, but this would be pointless because he's dead and he can't defend himself without breaking WW rules. The important thing is that I meant what I said when I said how I felt. You may not agree with me, but asking me to be ashamed of my opinions and conclusions because they didn't mesh with yours is a bit presumptuous.

Third, I plea to slow down!!! 200 posts! That's just ridiculous. There is no way a sane person can keep up with that. For the next day or two we should try and keep a small check on our post and not go overboard in size or quantity.

Well I both agree and don't agree with that. For instance, right now things are rather quiet and I wish they were a bit brisker, because this is when I have time and leisure -- a nice Sunday evening when I don't have any committments or restraints and I can devote my time and thoughts to posting. Yet, I know that while I am sleeping and then away at the "battledore shop" and other various tasks tomorrow is when people are going to start nattering away in earnest and I won't have any chance of catching up before Day-end, forcing me to vote early which I dislike doing.

However, this is my problem and I'm not going to ask people to cramp their style to please me. I'll deal. I hope you'll deal too. There are still close to 30 people around, you ought to have known from the start that this would be a very, very loud village.

Fourth, the phantom is innocent!

Well, finally we agree on something. He seems pretty clean. For now.

Fifth, GW please get your pick in quickly and everybody WAKE UP and check periodically to see if you are a new gifted. We cannot afford to loose dreams or protections.

I'm not sure I get this comment. Do you have some sort of knowledge of gifteds shirking their duty? Or would you just like us to think that? Hmmmmmmm?

there are others that I believe are innocent such as Eomer, Fea, Firefoot, Spawn, Roa and others that I can't think of currently. That was yesterday and today could change that.

Finally Celuien, Diamond and Glirdan are looking rather suspicious today though admittedly I am posting this after reading only a couple of today's posts. But all of their reactions seem markedly odd.

Sorry, I had to shuffle your comments for easier reply. Anway, I have thought that you (er, your ancestors) generally have good instincts for werecreatures, so I'll keep this in mind, but I'm not sure that in this case I can agree about your feelings on Spawn, Roa, Celuien, and Glirdan. I know it's pointless to say what I think about my categorization, as it pertains to me, but what it tells me about the other players isn't pointless, if you take my meaning. That is, I'm an innocent and I'm suspect, so I can't really trust your view of the others as much as I might otherwise.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by morm

Fifth, GW please get your pick in quickly and everybody WAKE UP and check periodically to see if you are a new gifted. We cannot afford to loose dreams or protections.

Originally Posted by Diamond

I'm not sure I get this comment. Do you have some sort of knowledge of gifteds shirking their duty? Or would you just like us to think that? Hmmmmmmm?

To answer your question, Diamond, in the narrative it says that the Seer didn't dream last night because of timing issues. Here's what it says-

Originally Posted by lmp

The good wizard gave serious thought to whom to scry. It took a few hours to come to a conclusion. The scry was made. The villager scried was ordinary. The good wizard gifted the villager to be the seer. The only problem was that by the time this occurred, it was mere minutes before dawn. The seer didn't dream.

Can you say "oops"?

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by tp

Can you say "oops"?

That must have been part of the edit, because I didn't see it when I read it. I thought he'd just edited in the Tally at the bottom and the italics. Well that explains it.

Good to know Morm hasn't suddenly become frighteningly clumsy, at any rate.

Edit: I suppose, also, that it could have been there from the start and I just didn't read close enough, and when I posed my question early on LMP was too polite to say, "Foolish wench, read more carefully before ye cast doubts upon my speeches, or I'll be forced to whip thee with thine own battledore! Fie!"

[Thinlómien]

Hullo all!

I think lynching SPM was an act of pure cowardice. The wolves/wolf decided that they didn't want him their enemy.

The more I think about the wizard-lynching plan, the more it makes sense.

I made a plan, which describes how we should treat people in my opinion. (See the attachment.)

The idea is that primary enemies (word "suspect") used in the chart should be voted first, if there are none, then secondary and then tertiary.

From now on I will be using feminine pronouns when speaking about an unknown person, fg. the EW.

Now I'm off to check if someone's left her candy unguarded...

edit: xed with phantom and D18

[mormegil]

I'm not sure if it's because she's one of the few talking currently or not but I am really starting to wonder about Diamond. She seems to want to respond to everything and yet there really isn't a lot of substance in each post, rather she has a lot of banter going on. Granted I generally enjoy reading her banter but all the same it is possible, yea probable, that it is a ploy or a decoy rather.

One thing important to remember that family is a good thing but don't fool yourself for one second that a wolf wouldn't turn on his/her family.

I guess I'm having a difficult time seeing why we are giving so much attention to the EW spotting. I really think that we are just over thinking things and telling the EW whom to or whom not to pick and thus negating any good we are doing by it. Perhaps if we find a wolf we can then speculate a bit but I think we are working in reverse here. Let's leave the seer and GW to find the EW, or the EW will make a slip at which point it will be easy to spot him/her but until then I suggest we focus on wolves and try and keep the population at a reasonable rate. I would hate to see it climb above 3 as we will be loosing 2 villagers a night and much higer than that 3 villagers a night.

[Cailín]

Ai no… Dear Saucy, dead. My condolences, Celuien and daughters, this is most grievous news indeed.

This does mean that I do not have to waste any breath defending the Saucepan Man, as I had planned. The kill, however, tells us little enough: it was not the result of careful planning and discussions -for our wolves cannot do this- and probably entirely a matter of chance. Saucy was a smart man. I can only conclude that at least one of the wolves is a traditional: they wished him out of the way despite the fact that he came under suspicion.

My mind jumps to Kath, for no particular reason.

As for the lynching today… it is going to be difficult. We have so little to go on: no voting patterns, no hidden alliances… one who was innocent yesterDay has now joined the army of the EW. Probably someone who 1) was not suspected much, 2) did not appear on both Eomer's and SpM's list, 3) was not likely to be scried by the GW. That still leaves numerous options.

Originally Posted by Mormegil

I guess I'm having a difficult time seeing why we are giving so much attention to the EW spotting. I really think that we are just over thinking things and telling the EW whom to or whom not to pick and thus negating any good we are doing by it.

I do agree - a little. However, it will be hard to spot the wolves all working individually: kinda like spotting the Werebear. The depressing thing is that it is right now almost everyone for himself, excepting the Good Wizard and his Gifted. I'd be happy if we would just manage to find any trace of any evil activity, wolf or wizard.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sorry Morm, but this village is monstrous in size. We're probably going to reach about 40 pages before the end so chin up, sir!

O Saucepan Man, I mourn your death. Whatever will become of your beautiful family; and what of the essential public house! Truly, this is cause for sadness.

Now, onto business. My initial thoughts on the kill are in line with my dear mother Cailín, but I am interested (as always) to hear what theory my brother The Phantom has up his sleeve. I can't see how this kill is a masterpiece of wolvish strategy. In fact, I think this was a strange kill from the wolves' point of view. Saucepan Man was always unlikely to be given a gift, and he was always likely to be a lynching-candidate and a Seer dream. Yes, he adds so much intelligence to the discussion; but I wonder whether this was a snap-decision from the wolves, made without too much thought. Maybe I'm not seeing this aright, but were I a wolf I would certainly not have murdered Saucepan Man.

Strange.

While I thought that Loki was innocent, I don't think his innocence should give the village carte blanche to slay the Loki bandwagon. Strategy today requires careful deliberation, and we shouldn't just assume that the wolves had something to do with the death of the first innocent.

Diamond, you weren't on my list of wolves because I can see you getting lynched very early. Sorry, but that's the truth.

Gurthang, I did indeed think some of the early votes were inappropriate. The vote for Lommy, somewhat, because I think she's always prime lynching material and wouldn't be picked to be a wolf. But (and you're absolutely right!) especially Lhuna's vote for me. My survival chances are among the lowest of anyone in this village: there is no way the EW is picking me to be a wolf.

Maybe Lhuna senses evil lurking somewhere within me ( ) but she's mistaken. I have never attempted to learn sorcery and I never will. Not my cup of tea.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Belated Happy Mother's Day to all mums here, real and in-game.

Okay, now let's get down to business.

Nobody bothers to take cross-votes into consideration, except probably me. Here are the ones I saw:

(Times are in GMT +8)

3.54: Morm --> Kath (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
3.56: Naria --> Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)

4.00: Eomer --> Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
4.01: Lommy --> Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
4.03: Alcarillo --> SPM (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)

4.32: Fea --> Loki (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 3, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
4.33: Loki --> Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 3, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)

4.58: Lalaith --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 5, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
4.59: Celuien --> Lommy (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 3, Loki 5, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)

5.33: Valier --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 6, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)
5.35: Kitanna --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 7, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)
5.35: Azaelia --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 8, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)

The underlines are about ties made and broken.

Now cross-votes are interesting because the cross-voters haven't had a chance to factor their fellow cross-voter's vote into the tally by the time they voted. Therefore, so far as we are concerned, Valier, Kitanna, or Zali gave Loki's 6th vote.

Interesting, eh? But probably useless for now.

I voted for Nogrod yesterDAY because:

a) he was on my possible Wizard's list, and I wanted to see some reaction, or lack of it, from him;
b) he had already posted much by the time I had to vote.
c) Now, the phantom was also on my possible Wizard's list, and he had posted much then, too, so I went with Nogrod because he's already up against someone: Loki. They ended up being the two to compete for the dubious honour of DAY 1 lynchee. Wow.

I got what I needed out of the strife. And I found Valier's vote most interesting . . .

++Valier

That's it. See you tomorrow, then.

[Caranlondien]

Alas for poor SPM and his family! Not to mention how our village is now down a barkeep. Regarding the wolves' choice, on the one hand, he was garnering suspicion, which makes his death look odd. But given the fact he was innocent, I can't say I'm surprised. SPM would have been dangerous to the EW and the wolves were he ever to become a gifted.

As for lynching Loki yesterDay, what Diamond has already said about that goes for me also. On a personal level, I'm sorry for having lynched an innocent newbie. I think doing so is something to be avoided, in general. However, someone has to be lynched on Day 1! We never have much to go on, and thus I voted for the person I honestly found most suspicious given our very limited evidence. This time, those criteria happened to point to our unfortunate leech-collector. I apologize to Loki, but I stand by my vote. Day 1 is pretty darn random, and our chances were slim of not lynching an innocent.

I don't think we can expect to find many clues from what SPM said yesterDay. The werewolves couldn't have thought him a gifted, because we didn't have any yet. And even if they thought he was the GW, the only thing the GW knew yesterDay was the identity of one innocent who had for a very brief time been a wolf. I tend to think he was killed for his reputation as someone you don't want on the team opposite yours.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I agree with what Caranlondien had to say about voting for Loki. I feel especially bad about voting for him, as mine was the decisive one...and so figuratively pulled the stool from under him (or would have, had not the dashing Phantom done so for me *ducks a battledore* ).

All that said, I think it is possible that Saucey was killed simply because he has, according to my lorebook, a fairly good track record as being an astute, experienced village member. In other words, he's smart and experienced, which alone could be a major factor in why he was killed. Too dangerous to keep around. If this is a frame-up, it's a fairly subtle one...though I think that we didn't give the wolves and EW too much to go on yesterDay--day ones, I suspect, are hard all around. So he could have been a "oh, hey, who do we kill tonight..." "Oh! I know! Let's get Sauce!"

Edit: Cross-posted with Fea
And also to say that I probably won't be back on until an hour or less before voting time. It's unfortunate, but it's the way it's going to be until Thursday at the latest (assuming, of course, that I survive that long). So many apologies in advance, and I request that you all bear with me.

[Firefoot]

Saucepan will certainly be missed. And Loki... even if I really didn't like his attitude, I didn't think he was guilty. But what's done is done.

Mostly I just want to say now that I'm extremely tired, and most of my posting will come in the last few hours of the day (I may check in with some comments in eight hours or so, though). I can only agree with Morm that trying to keep up with all this is completely nuts. It's all kind of blurry and no way am I going to be able to come up with anything comprehensible right now.

[the phantom]

There's a lot I could say about why SPM was chosen, but I'm going to wait a bit to give my opinion. I'm guessing there is a very simple explanation, but it's possible the pick was extremely careful and strategic, in which case I want to watch for people doing certain things today, because there are certain things someone does if they make a kill for a certain reason.

Of course, the very fact that I've said I'm watching for unnamed suspicious activities might result in the Wolves chickening out of whatever they had planned (if they did indeed have a sort of plan for the day, given to them by the EW perhaps).

But I'll say more later in the day about that.

Originally Posted by me

Phantom=EW would lead to a resounding villager victory, I assure you.

Originally Posted by Diamond

I tend to agree with this, in the sense that tp is one of the ones more likely to be found out by the GW or Seer pretty quickly. Which is why I doubt that he would have been selected for this role.

I'm glad to see you believe that I'm not the EW.

Originally Posted by me

because Roa is a Wizard, of course.

Originally Posted by Diamond

I have to say I was thinking this, too.

Of course you were. Great minds...you know the rest.

Now, the only way to find out if we're right is to lynch Roa, but I don't feel like pushing for someone's death this early in the day. I haven't seen much from Roa, and I'd like to wait and hear what she has to say for herself.

Originally Posted by Fea

and while I lean a little toward Loki as that double-choice, it's not because of her, it's because that's the choice I'd have made

Or because that's the choice you did make, of course.

I don't have time to say more now. I promised Zali I'd take a walk with her down by the creek today. We should be back soon though.

Or maybe not.

*ducks battledore*

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Or because that's the choice you did make, of course.

Sure is.

PS: not really

[Diamond18]

I think one more post should cover things, unless I've forgotten anything.

Originally Posted by tp

Great minds...you know the rest.

Buttering me up, eh? You know how to court a girl's mother, dontcha? Puts me in mind of an old folk song of the Reindeer Folk, I Want to Be the Boy to Warm Your Mother's Heart.

Now, the only way to find out if we're right is to lynch Roa, but I don't feel like pushing for someone's death this early in the day. I haven't seen much from Roa, and I'd like to wait and hear what she has to say for herself.

I hope she shows up earlier tomorrow than yesterDay, because I'll be voting early again. I too want to hear from her. Roa, Roa, wherefore art thou Roa? (And I know that's incorrect usage of "wherefore" but whatever.)

I don't have time to say more now. I promised Zali I'd take a walk with her down by the creek today. We should be back soon though.

Or maybe not.

*ducks battledore*

AHEM.

Just remember, while you're doing all this courting, it's highly unseemly considering the girl's grandfather just died and we're supposed to be in mourning.

And you can save your honeyed words about comforting because I know what that means.

Originally Posted by Fea

I've been wondering about Roa as "the friend" for a while now too. I have no final thoughts on her wizardliness, however, and while I lean a little toward Loki as that double-choice, it's not because of her, it's because that's the choice I'd have made.

Well, I do take into consideration that even there is the slightest bit of veracity in my theory, it still only applies to one Wizard. Either both were thinking logically or one was, either way there was some logic involved. It's only possible that friendship entered into the equation. And my main reason for believing this was because of the secrecy. For all I know Loki made the "secret friend" up in a diabolical scheme to watch us try and figure it out. (Note: I really, really don't think this is the case. But the internet is so strange a place I can imagine tons of these weird scenarios. What this says about the way my diabolical mind works, is up to you. )

(Totally useless comment, but I feel compelled to express my frustration with the 3 smiley limit. I'm always coming up against it in these longer posts. Especially when I quote people. Argh!)