Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The consensus seems to be that the GW doesn't want to scry people who are likely Wolf kills or people who manage to get themselves lynched. The EW or his picks won't be certain people because they are likely Seer dreams or they, too, could get themselves lynched during Day. If this affects the Seer's dreaming choices, s/he might not dream of those who would be natural options in any other Village thus making them safe picks for the EW. I'm not speculating how the Good team should act, far from it, but it might be a good thing if we villagers wouldn't completely rule out different options.

I'm wary of those who seem to be helpful suggesting what to do, but do not show example or give possible names by themselves. YesterDay it was Lhuna. Today Lommy acts quite similarly. Yes, there are timezone issues. Lommy's post was made in the morning, so she might not have had much time, but apparently she had time enough to make a scheme about how we should act today. Keeping that in mind, I would have liked to hear more, how she, for example, is defining EWish/ Wolvish behaviour.

Originally Posted by Eomer

So, if SPM was onto something (and let's be honest: if he was way off then the wolves would not have picked him) and that's why he lies dead, I would pick a lynching candidate from the following:

Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa or Gurthang. Two wolves in that lot!

Even though Oddwen was on Sauce's list, he ended up excusing her.

"I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further." ~Sauce #117

Anyway, I rather agree on some of your choices, Eomer.


edit: I see that Lommy has posted again, so I'll take my words back concerning her - for now.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

I'm wary of those who seem to be helpful suggesting what to do, but do not show example or give possible names by themselves. YesterDay it was Lhuna. Today Lommy acts quite similarly. Yes, there are timezone issues. Lommy's post was made in the morning, so she might not have had much time, but apparently she had time enough to make a scheme about how we should act today. Keeping that in mind, I would have liked to hear more, how she, for example, is defining EWish/ Wolvish behaviour.

Yes, in the morning after I had woke up and done my usual morning things I had 1/2 hour time before going to steal candy (=school) so I had just the time to skim through today's posts and write my own.

Err... Spawn I hope you have good intentions but I'm not sure of it. I don't think it'd be very wise from me to publish the signs I'm looking after: that'd only make the wolves avoid falling to those. Besides, I'm sure it would cause discussion on the topic and that would make even more profit to the wolves to hear all villagers' tricks to catch wolves. So, no thanks.

Mrs. Felagund, is there anything you wish to confess?

edit: xed with Gurthang

[JennyHallu]

Hello again...

I may never have much liked my brother-in-law, but I stand with my sister to mourn his passing. Celuien, dear, use a hankie. Naria, since your sister's off gallivanting with that boy, maybe you could...um...clean up the kitchen a bit. Put some of those saucepans away, maybe.

The village seems to have gained some direction today, focussing on who would be a clever pick of the Wizards. I am afraid I would knock Caranlondien off of the likely-wolf list, though. While my lorebooks show her ancestors as wise and learnèd villagers, a wolvish ancestor could only be categorized as somewhat...jumpy. I think the EW would go for someone who has shown finesse with the role of werewolf, since even some of the best villagers can make horrible wolves. He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.

As such, I agree with many of the people on likely good wolf/gifted choices, but with one twist. Most people yesterday seemed to doubt Loki's claim on the assumption that the Wizards would be going for the same people, and Loki appeared on no one's mental list of likely "cursees".

But our Wizards are no doubt intelligent and well-versèd in werewolf lore, and it would surely occur to both of them that the wise among the villagers would have such a hit-list prepared, and that these choices would probably be much the same for either. For that reason, it does not seem at all unlikely that both Wizards might have made a selection meant to sidestep both the predictions of the village and their counterpart. Loki's claim rang true to me just because it seemed so unlikely.

So I would not be surprised to see the Wizardly selections swing towards vocal and controversial players just because we, the village, might assume the Wizards would never choose that person.

And: Lal and a phantom, both of you have shown incredible sense and judgement (especially the incorporeal one), and are therefore in my mind prime lynch candidates. Are your secret theories and assumptions so sensitive that it is worth the chance they are lost to the village?

[Nogrod]

=Jenny
I think the EW would go for someone who has shown finesse with the role of werewolf, since even some of the best villagers can make horrible wolves.

This is a case in point, as we still have to remember the wolves being hand-picked. My deficient lorebook comes up with two over all the others (playing well and been wolves for many times), the ancestors of Roa and Jenny. You others who have played more should see your books for others this way highly qualified. Even though, it can be maintained, that also this "fame" might just be a reason for the wizard not to pick these people up in the first place.

He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.

This is very helpful indeed. So: about anyone...

So I would not be surprised to see the Wizardly selections swing towards vocal and controversial players just because we, the village, might assume the Wizards would never choose that person.

I still think, that the first picks would be more likely somewhat on the under-radar -side, but the third one could already be different.


Some preliminary thoughts after running through yesterday's posting.

Nicely unseen / not suspicious enough to come lynched during the first days ie. the possible "original duo":
Caran, Valier, Kitanna, Eonwe, Lalaith

Good candidates for EW to pick as the third one (seem to have been mainly trusted by all on DAY1):
Eomer, Phantom, Fea, Spawn, Firefoot

I know, that this kind of lists are - as yet - quite random, but there's the direction I'm looking at right now: reasonable picks having a bit different basis before DAY1 and DAY2.

[Roa_Aoife]

OOC Getting this post in- Sorry I'm late but last night involved a rather lengthy discussion with my parents and my new fiancé (they just found out.) So, this is quick, and I haven't read all the way through, but I'll be back with more this time, I promise! OOC

I don't know why you believe Loki and I are friends in RL, Diamond, but as for my reasons for believing him innocent, I laid those out already. However, for the sake of expediency- Loki's claim was believable

a. Because no one contradicted him. In the case of a villager turned wolf turn villager, there would really be nothing to fear from coming forward, so the fact that Loki was the only one who made the claim added to his believability.

b. His timing. Why come forward right away with this information unless it is true? A wolf certainly would not want to attract attention like that. He had no reason to do so unless it was the truth and he wanted the village to know immediately.

c. Lying wouldn't be that plausible. It would be easy for someone to contradict him. As I said yesterday, that move is far too bold for even me.

d. If he had been believed rather than immediately attacked for his claim *coughcoughNogrodcoughcough*, it wouldn't have caused confusion but clarity- we would have a known innocent and so could look elsewhere for lynching.

Given all of this, I would say it was Nogrod who started the confusion, not Loki.

Also, since a question of my connection to Loki arises, if I were a wizard and Loki was my friend, do you really think that I would pick him on that alone? Give me some credit- I'm a little more subtle than that. But as for the nature of our relationship, Loki is not my friend in RL. Just so ya'll know.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm sad that Loki had to go. I for myself tried to get him lynched yesterday, as I was myself being bandwaggoned and he was the second one in the line.

This statement has me wondering- you admit to bandwagoning, but you give an odd reason for it. You were certainly throwing suspicion on Loki from your first post. And your reasons were terrible. I'd have to say that you were the driving force behind Loki's lynching, not after you were on the kill list, but from the very beginning.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Concerning the EW. S/he would do well to enlist people who are not the primary targets / most vocal ones (as they are in most cases the first to be lynched.

Nice blanket statement- certainly throws suspicion off you almost immediately.

I'll have a more in-depth analysis later.

Originally Posted by Morm

Second, I cannot for the life of me understand why you killed of Loki. He screamed innocence to me and I do believe he was the double pick of the night. I do not know this for certain but his claims rang true in my ears. I actually didn't find him offensive or rude and think that many of you who went after him should feel slightly ashamed at yourselfs for ganging up on him. I haven't decided yet if I believe the EW is in the group of votes for him or not. Lalaith's 'cannon fodder' idea makes great sense and that is why I consider that to be a possibility.

Major dido to Morm.

[Celuien]

Points appreciated, Roa.

I'm swayed enough by what you've written to remove you from my suspicion for today. And to want to keep a closer watch on Nogrod tomorrow.

The time has come for a vote.

++ LALAITH

The theory in 176 doesn't sit right with me, as I've already explained. And the others on the list have behaved compellingly innocent enough for me to be less willing to vote for them.

Off to the convention.

[Nogrod]

Well. I know this might look bad to some eyes, but as I'm going to be off for several hours (and remember my last game just too well when Spm and Kath arranged my death and their win while I was away), I think I have to make a few corrections on some stuff flying in the air.

Please Roa. If you just check the DAY1 posts from the beginning, you should see, that what was going on, was mainly typical DAY1 bantering - with the slight twist of Loki being somewhat overtly defencive. So not driving lynch from the first moments. Roa: you ask others to give you credit of not being a fool. Please give me that credit too...

Some people have voiced their concern of me changing my style between DAY1 & 2. Surely. That's what I always do. I need to get some suspicion on me on DAY1 to live over the nights. Simple as that. And I've played that way from my second game onwards.

[Oddwen]

*walks in, a purloined chicken under each arm*

I am in agony. So much to read through, and so little time for me to decide what to do!

Originally Posted by Cailin

She's odd.

Never heard *that* before.

Gah! So much talk, and yet so little to glean!

Just hit me - the Wolves don't know who each other are, this means they aren't certain who's innocent either. I personally would like to see the wizards gone, only because it would be less confusing for me. (A selfish wish indeed, I fear).

I'm going to go brush my teeth, and try to come up with a vote. It'll be the only time I can, because those chickens won't catch themselves.

[Lalaith]

don't know if there is a villager who would at the same time be a good cannon fodder and Seer

Spawn, you misunderstood me. Three wolves were picked by the EW. One would be, in my theory, "cannon fodder". This would NOT be the same wolf that was changed back.

I'll be back to post more, including the quotes Spawn requested, in a moment when I've had a bit more time.

[Oddwen]

I've decided, I suppose.

++LALAITH

Because she never really loved me! And for a few things that Spawn pointed out, and a few little hunches of my own.

Must leave now, see you toMorrow

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Oddwen

Never heard *that* before.

Always happy to state the obvious.

What you say is actually very much to the point. All wolves and the wizard are working individually. The wolves will as likely accuse each other as anyone else. If I were a wolf now, I'd probably play no differently than I do now, for why would I?

Therefore, the only likely way to find out the wolves is to ask yourself the question: if I were the EW, who would I have chosen to be my minions?

If we assume Loki was indeed speaking the truth -and I'm starting to think he did- who would you team up with him? Surely not another controversional person likely to be a loudmouth. Loki and Nogrod or Roa -for example- seems like a destructive choice.

Concerning Lalaith and her canon fodder theory... I don't find it as logical as some. The Evil Wizard will -I think- be more concerned with creating as many decent wolves as fast as possible than prolonging his own life using eccentric tactics. The more days pass, the more likely it is he will be scried and challenged.

(Oh, and, if the evil wizard is Fea, these would have been her wolves: Loki, Lalaith and Lhunardawen. I shall support this theory for now, as it seems to be no less rational or irrational than anything we come up with.)

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Noggie

Quote:
He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.
This is very helpful indeed. So: about anyone...

I meant this to exclude anyone who behaves differently when a wolf or gifted than otherwise. I suppose I would mean Roa would be a bad choice, because when innocent she is vocal and controversial, and when wolvish or gifted, she is much more careful. OOC- Congratulations on your engagement, by the way, Roa...

[Lalaith]

It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.

Celuien, isn't this a case of "shoot the messenger"? Yes it will be harder to find people to trust but that is not my fault - it's what the new rules involve, I'm afraid. I've thought a lot about the possibilities in this game and I've come to the conclusion that there are even more chances than usual for the evil side to subvert logic. So while I usually like to combine deduction and instinct, I've realised that particularly in the early stages of this game, I'm going to have to rely more on instinct than I usually do, and less on logic.
The only thing in our favour is that the wolves don't know who to trust either.

Oh and here's that quote you wanted, Spawn, it's from Diamond's post 210:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fea
I also agree with whomever it was that mentioned searching out the wizards. It gives us a legitimate project for day one. It will put them off guard. Sure, it would mean sacrificing the good wizard in all probability, but since the good wizard lives to die in such a way, I won't feel too badly about it. Consider: who would expect that an entire village would gang up on their wizards? Surely we would want to keep our good wizard around. Blah blah pros and cons blah blah. With the pressure of an entire village actively seeking, the evil wizard will have to be REALLY good to avoid screwing up.


Not much more to say except that I agree with this and am of basically the same mind. The GW lives to be martyred in order to cease the creation of Wolves. Nuff said.

As for the music thing, I was just having a bit of fun. I AM meant to be frivolous, you know...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

(Oh, and, if the evil wizard is Fea, these would have been her wolves: Loki, Lalaith and Lhunardawen. I shall support this theory for now, as it seems to be no less rational or irrational than anything we come up with.)

Hang on, that's not true at all. I'd have loved to be the wizard and anybody that knows me would know it, but what with all of my [shepherdessing], I just haven't the time for those sorts of shenanigans. I want no wolves near my sheep, thanks much.

However, this is why it's that much more wrong: If I was EW, I wouldn't have picked them. Well... not two of them. Loki, yes. Lalaith and Lhuna, no. I'd have picked Loki, the phantom, and JennyHallu. One newbie to be taken for granted, one "yeah freaking right", and one just subtle enough to make a right evil wolf. That and Jen's been evil so often that I wouldn't want to break with tradition.

Next night would be morm, next would be Cailin. Actually, I might have tossed Nilp into the mix. I like my variety, wouldn't you know.

Still, I'm dead curious as to why you picked Lalaith and Lhuna for me and why you support the theory of Fea=EW.

Next tangent: I liked the cannon fodder idea.

Originally Posted by Aimè

F....f....fe.... ahem. It's you, right? Just a guess. [img]ubb/wink.gif[/img]

Keep guessing.

Here's my afternoon schedule: stop procrastinating and write a story due at 2:15; go to class; work; don't get back until the Day is over.

So I have to vote for somebody.

Since Roa denies being "the friend," I'm now fascinated by her strong defense of Loki.

Why would anybody be defending anybody unless they had a reason? If her reason isn't that they're the friends, what is it? Since I don't have any more time to ponder, I'm going to go with that reasoning. She defended somebody very staunchly and that's a stupid idea in such an unpredictable village.

++ROA

[the phantom]

*Phantom pops into the village tavern*

"I'll be able to speak in about three hours. Just letting everyone know so you didn't wonder where I was."

*Phantom pops back out of the village tavern*

"Probably off with Zali," observed several villagers.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Lommy, making polls about what other people find suspicious makes me uneasy, too, for the reasons you mentioned (more to be found in various lorebooks). What I was expecting from you was your own thoughts of Villagers. The scheme seems helpful, but have you tried it yourself? If yes, did you manage to divide people to those different groups that you spoke of? I think that kind of discussion and analysing the villagers in general would be most useful in catching the baddies.


Something in Lalaith is making me uneasy. I've tried analysing her posts, but I guess it's just the general impression than anything she'd have said directly that has caught my attention. Still, I'll take a moment to comment her posts.

#176 - the cannon fodder theory. The villager who was chosen by both Wizards is someone who'd make a good Seer.

I don't know if there is a villager who would at the same time be a good cannon fodder and Seer. The theory of making an expendable Wolf is interesting and something that the EW might try at some point, but considering that his/her job is to make as many wolves as s/he can, I don't think that sacrificing a wolf would be very profitable now that it's easy to hide among the masses.

#178 - asks when the sun will go down.

#180 - still confusion about the deadline, votes for Loki because he filled the criteria of her cannon fodder theory.

She tied Loki with Nogrod giving him a fifth vote.

#246 - several questions about rules.

Hmm, your ancestor suspected mine once for asking questions... should I suspect you?

- Says Sauce's death can be simply explained although then she wonders if she and phantom are thinking along the same lines. She will keep her thoughts to herself, though. Says that no one is suspecting phantom, and she doesn't either although then she starts browsing old lorebooks.

Are you saying that there might reason to suspect phantom after all? As to the lorebooks, I kind of warned the Village about same thing yesterDay, but whatever.

- Doesn't agree with Di and Fea, and thinks that revealing the GW is a silly plan. Suspects Diamond for bad taste in music?

Would it be possible for you to give the quotes from Di and Fea? I'd appreciate that. Anyway, phantom has been pretty vocal about the benefits of the GW revealing themselves soon, so is there some reason why you chose to pick those two ladies?

"The wolves - there were only two last night and presumably they either came, via their mod, to some arrangement, or the EW picked one of their two choices, or the EW may even have made a few suggestions to them regarding their kill, if such things are permissible." ~Lalaith

According to the rules:

Order of Night Activities:
1. Evil wizard picks whom to curse.
...
7. Werewolves pick whom to kill.

I understand it that way that there were three Wolves making the decision of the kill.


I need a break. I'll be back later.

edit: some cross-posting.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Even though Oddwen was on Sauce's list, he ended up excusing her.

"I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further." ~Sauce #117

I agree with his assessment. Though if she is a wolf, his excuse of her no vote would have made him a safer target for her. I'll move her to the bottom of the list of candidates who might well be the original two wolves, but will remain wary of her.

I most likely will not vote for Alcarillo. I'm thinking that it would have brought a lot of attention to him to have killed SPM. But again, I'm still wary of a bluff, so while I'll pass for today, he is staying high on my list of those who I'll be keeping a close eye on. He currently ranks just above Oddwen in my mind.

Lommy seems less suspicious today. She's making more sense, and I rather like her flowchart.

And I still trust my father Morm. Likewise about the phantom, spawn, and Eomer. Nogrod speaks sensibly, so I would, again, be disinclined to vote for him.

Nilp is more difficult to get a handle on, due both to personality and time-zone disease, but because he strikes me as a very poor EW pick and because nothing is really striking me as furry, I don't think think he's cursed.

Sleepy, Valier, Roa and Kitanna I can't tell much about yet because they fall into the quiet category.

The only thing I have against Lhuna is her call for the GW to declare from yesterday. That issue has been discussed by me and by others, so I won't go into the reasons I think that's a bad idea right now. And again, she seems to be a riskier EW pick, so she doesn't take a prominent place on my list of suspects. I think she does, however, bear some observation. Similar reasoning applies to Fea.

The Lady Battledore doesn't seem wolvish. Too likely to get herself lynched the way she goes around swatting everyone with her handywork.

Which leaves me with a large contingent of intermediately chatty villagers whom I just don't know about one way or the other (read - everyone whose name isn't mentioned above or on SPM's list, which I'll get to in a minute).

So back to Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa and Gurthang.

Oddwen I've already discussed. Gurthang has been relatively quiet, which makes me uneasy, but what he has said doesn't strike me as wolvish. Besides, he agrees with the phantom about the wizards, which seems to be a good thing. Caran has been on the right side of the GW revealing debate () and generally making sense. While she could be a wolf using sensible behavior as cover, I'm inclined to trust her for now. Roa defended Loki yesterday, and turned out to be right. She suspected those who were eager to see him gone and voted for Nogrod on that basis. My lorebooks say that her ancestors have been sensible and intelligent, and very effective at hiding as wolves until cornering made them defensive. I can't tell, however, if she suspicious or not just now. As for Lalaith, she had a very interesting interpretation in post #176 about the EW making cannon fodder wolves for the purpose of revealing them to earn village trust, then voted for Loki. It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.

Hmm. And that didn't get me very far in my reasoning, did it? If the EW did pick from among those 5, it was a wise choice, because they are quite effective at deflecting suspicion.

I now have both good news and bad news. The good news is that the morning Cupper's convention was canceled, which allowed me to remain with my excellent and admirable fellow villagers these last few hours. The bad news is that afternoon sessions are still scheduled, and I don't know how far into the evening they are going to last, so my vote will need to come soon lest I risk returning the the village too late.

Expect the vote in the next couple of hours.