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#1 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Some preliminary thoughts after running through yesterday's posting. Nicely unseen / not suspicious enough to come lynched during the first days ie. the possible "original duo": Caran, Valier, Kitanna, Eonwe, Lalaith Good candidates for EW to pick as the third one (seem to have been mainly trusted by all on DAY1): Eomer, Phantom, Fea, Spawn, Firefoot I know, that this kind of lists are - as yet - quite random, but there's the direction I'm looking at right now: reasonable picks having a bit different basis before DAY1 and DAY2.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#2 | |||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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OOC Getting this post in- Sorry I'm late but last night involved a rather lengthy discussion with my parents and my new fiancé (they just found out.) So, this is quick, and I haven't read all the way through, but I'll be back with more this time, I promise! OOC
I don't know why you believe Loki and I are friends in RL, Diamond, but as for my reasons for believing him innocent, I laid those out already. However, for the sake of expediency- Loki's claim was believable a. Because no one contradicted him. In the case of a villager turned wolf turn villager, there would really be nothing to fear from coming forward, so the fact that Loki was the only one who made the claim added to his believability. b. His timing. Why come forward right away with this information unless it is true? A wolf certainly would not want to attract attention like that. He had no reason to do so unless it was the truth and he wanted the village to know immediately. c. Lying wouldn't be that plausible. It would be easy for someone to contradict him. As I said yesterday, that move is far too bold for even me. d. If he had been believed rather than immediately attacked for his claim *coughcoughNogrodcoughcough*, it wouldn't have caused confusion but clarity- we would have a known innocent and so could look elsewhere for lynching. Given all of this, I would say it was Nogrod who started the confusion, not Loki. Also, since a question of my connection to Loki arises, if I were a wizard and Loki was my friend, do you really think that I would pick him on that alone? Give me some credit- I'm a little more subtle than that. But as for the nature of our relationship, Loki is not my friend in RL. Just so ya'll know. Quote:
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I'll have a more in-depth analysis later. Quote:
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#3 |
Riveting Ribbiter
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Assigned to Mordor
Posts: 1,767
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Points appreciated, Roa.
I'm swayed enough by what you've written to remove you from my suspicion for today. And to want to keep a closer watch on Nogrod tomorrow. The time has come for a vote. ++ LALAITH The theory in 176 doesn't sit right with me, as I've already explained. And the others on the list have behaved compellingly innocent enough for me to be less willing to vote for them. Off to the convention.
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People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff. |
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#4 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Well. I know this might look bad to some eyes, but as I'm going to be off for several hours (and remember my last game just too well when Spm and Kath arranged my death and their win while I was away), I think I have to make a few corrections on some stuff flying in the air.
Please Roa. If you just check the DAY1 posts from the beginning, you should see, that what was going on, was mainly typical DAY1 bantering - with the slight twist of Loki being somewhat overtly defencive. So not driving lynch from the first moments. Roa: you ask others to give you credit of not being a fool. Please give me that credit too... ![]() Some people have voiced their concern of me changing my style between DAY1 & 2. Surely. That's what I always do. I need to get some suspicion on me on DAY1 to live over the nights. Simple as that. And I've played that way from my second game onwards.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#5 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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The problem is that I don't feel anyone particularly suspicious. The people I suspected yesterday are acting more reasonably today (Nogrod, Alcarillo).
I have no real suspects, but I feel the following people should be watched: Nogrod - very strange yesterday, I don't feel his reasonability toDay wholly excuses him Celuien - makes sense, I agree, but I think she was rather unfair with the analysis on me yesterday. (Oh well, I'm not sure if I feel more insulted than suspicious... ![]() Lalaith - as pointed out, her theory is rather odd. I don't see how it could succeed nor why the EW would like to waste one wolf on it. Kitanna, Firefoot, Kath, Zali - all of them contributed to the game, but they all masterfully avoided attention. I fear they will slip under the radar. the phantom - the village trusts him too much. Eomer - his sudden vote for Nogrod was pretty strange yesterday Jenny, Gurth - they leave me with absolotely no opinion, though they participate. That makes me feel that I should watch them in order to get a picture of them. Alcarillo, Oddwen - their behaviour disturbed me yesterday. I need more time to get an image of them. Sleepy - no record from yesterday (with understandable reasons). As my list seems to include nearly all of the villagers ![]() Diamond - babbling all the time (no insult intended). (Maybe she's substituting Roa... ![]() Cara - she's smart, I don't deny it. Nothing in her has caught my suspicion. spawn, Cailín, Roa - make good points and sense. Lhuna, Fea, morm - nothing particularily suspicious here either. Glirdy - sympathic, my dear brother. Innocent most probably. Valier, Eonwe, Nilp - completely their normal style. Don't raise any suspicions in me. Naria - was chatty early yesterday but started to make sense later. Feels innocent. If I forgot somebody, please let me know. edit: xed with the lot posting after Oddwen's previous post (not the newest)
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
Last edited by Thinlómien; 05-15-2006 at 08:55 AM. |
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#6 | |
Drummer in the Deep
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Next Sunday A.D.
Posts: 2,145
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*walks in, a purloined chicken under each arm*
I am in agony. So much to read through, and so little time for me to decide what to do! Quote:
Gah! So much talk, and yet so little to glean! Just hit me - the Wolves don't know who each other are, this means they aren't certain who's innocent either. I personally would like to see the wizards gone, only because it would be less confusing for me. (A selfish wish indeed, I fear). I'm going to go brush my teeth, and try to come up with a vote. It'll be the only time I can, because those chickens won't catch themselves.
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But all the while I sit and think of times there were before
I listen for returning feet and voices at the door |
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#7 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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I'll be back to post more, including the quotes Spawn requested, in a moment when I've had a bit more time.
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
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#8 |
Drummer in the Deep
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Next Sunday A.D.
Posts: 2,145
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I've decided, I suppose.
++LALAITH Because she never really loved me! And for a few things that Spawn pointed out, and a few little hunches of my own. Must leave now, see you toMorrow
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But all the while I sit and think of times there were before
I listen for returning feet and voices at the door |
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#9 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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![]() What you say is actually very much to the point. All wolves and the wizard are working individually. The wolves will as likely accuse each other as anyone else. If I were a wolf now, I'd probably play no differently than I do now, for why would I? Therefore, the only likely way to find out the wolves is to ask yourself the question: if I were the EW, who would I have chosen to be my minions? If we assume Loki was indeed speaking the truth -and I'm starting to think he did- who would you team up with him? Surely not another controversional person likely to be a loudmouth. Loki and Nogrod or Roa -for example- seems like a destructive choice. Concerning Lalaith and her canon fodder theory... I don't find it as logical as some. The Evil Wizard will -I think- be more concerned with creating as many decent wolves as fast as possible than prolonging his own life using eccentric tactics. The more days pass, the more likely it is he will be scried and challenged. (Oh, and, if the evil wizard is Fea, these would have been her wolves: Loki, Lalaith and Lhunardawen. I shall support this theory for now, as it seems to be no less rational or irrational than anything we come up with.) |
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#10 | |
The Pearl, The Lily Maid
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<=== Lookee, lookee, lots of IM handles! |
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#11 | ||
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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The only thing in our favour is that the wolves don't know who to trust either. Oh and here's that quote you wanted, Spawn, it's from Diamond's post 210: Quote:
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
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#12 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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I find it odd also that Lalaith is garnering so much suspicion. All she has said and done seems rather logical and helpful. I think her 'Cannon Fodder' theory on Day 1 was to help explain a way in which Loki would be innocent.
Does anybody else find it problematic that the majority of us are saying things like..."If I were the EW I would select ...." We are telling the EW who we think he/she would pick thus giving them the opportunity to select others whom we do not think they would choose. The same goes for selecting the EW, of course LMP wouldn't select the phantom or Eomer...or would he knowing that we would think he wouldn't. See what I mean about over thinking this? I would really like to analyze Diamond more as well as Thinlomien, however they are the top posters and as a mayor it is my job to fill vacant slots therefore I have interviews to do all day long (RL) and will be able to poke in and out but not read past post overly but some people are sticking out to me. Alcarillo: was extremely defensive without much suspicion cast on him. It seems as if he almost didn't vote to kill SpM last night but was over ruled by his comrades and now is anxious to exonerate himself first thing. Diamond: with all the banter it's hard to find what she is saying. Her post coming out and addressing everything I said today I found interesting and attention grabbing. Celuien: Sorry daughter but WW don't respect familial ties, and what better shield to hide behind than family? Glirdan: Just isn't sitting right Nogrod: Different behavior, a bit less rash and more cautious. Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal and helpful but hasn't really given much by actual suspicion. She gives a lot of wide sweeping statments that cover a lot of people. Behavior that I would find consistent with lycanthropy. There are others that I am watching and others I am currently trusting, but that is another problem. If we all trust the phantom, which I do, it would be easy to turn him into a wolf and we would all continue that trust for a while. I believe the seer wouldn't dream of him early, I wouldn't because it would be a waste to dream of him so early.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#13 | ||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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edit: marked the quote properly
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#14 |
Mischievous Candle
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In response to Lommy... somewhat
Do two votes make a bandwagon? I see your point, though. Quite a few people has voiced suspicion of her, so for early voters Lalaith might be the "safe vote" of the Day. I still find Lalaith suspicious and she might get my vote toDay, but I'd like to hear other people's theories of other villagers, too.
Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. I think I'll add Oddwen to my suspicion list. edit: Forgot this: Valier got a vote from Nilp, so Lalaith isn't the only one who has votes.
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Fenris Wolf
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#15 | |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel
Posts: 339
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Whew, finally caught up.
First, I now believe Loki's story. Despite the sarcastic personality, Loki was proven innocent at the end, and I see no reason for lies. No one else has come forward as the true former wolf. ToDay I am beginning to suspect my little sister Lommy. I agree with Mormegil's thoughts: Quote:
I'm unsure about Lalaith, and I guess I ought to go back over her posts (So much talking... ![]() Finally, I don't personally find Oddwen that odd (a misnomer!). That is, I don't think her behavior would be that likely from a wolf. She gave little reasoning for her early vote, and I think if she were a wolf, she'd know better than to do that. EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa and Diamond |
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#16 | ||
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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Oy vey. Took me 50 minutes to catch up. But I'm not complaining. Really.
I'm going to have to vote, and I'm at a loss. So many darn suspects. Oh well, as I'm pondering that I'll amuse myself with the usual behavior that nobody really likes: Quote:
Consulting my lorebooks, this is what they tell me: Quote:
Roa: I'm satisfied with your answers to my suspicions. (Yes, I had suspicions, who would have thought amongst all that banter that I actually said something Roa found worth responding to!) Anyway, my theory about you and Loki was based mostly on stuff that happend in those halcyon days prior to dear Elempi's death, when he got into that fight with tp. I didn't mean to insult you in implying you as a Wizard would pick a Wolf from your friends. I won't tell you that I wouldn't do such a thing. A bit of straying from cold hard logic can always be good for throwing the logic-sniffers off the trail. ![]() All that said, I don't think Gurthang cared to deny anything when I mentioned his name as my other consideration. Kind of interesting. I don't think he's a Wizard, because.... I just don't. See Fea's RL reasoning. So I pretty much think, now, that whoever was the friend certainly isn't going to step forward after I made it sound all suspicious. No matter if I was on to something or totally off base. Because who wants to say, "Yes, Diamond, I am that suspicious person you speak of." Lommy: Babbling, eh? I think this is a compliment coming fom you. ![]() Drrrrrrrrrrr. Blah. It's time to vote, and I still haven't even fully woken up yet. Curses. + + NOGROD *gasp* I'm sorry, hubby. There are lots of people now pinging my suspicions, but frankly, you did worry me yesterDay. I let it slide because, well, you're my hubby and I couldn't very well off you before Loki. But even though his reactions were over defensive, that whole "banter" thing you had going on seemed... off. You don't usually banter and accuse randomly like that. And a faux paus though it was, posting fifteen minutes early was no indication of wolfishness. From anyone else, such accusations I might not think twice about. But it's you, and you feel different. There's always the "Why would a wolf/wizard draw such attention to himself?" thing. But Noggie should know more than anyone that him being quiet is suspicious. So this feels like overcompensation. Trying a little too hard to maintain the high profile, without the usual genuine content I'm sorry if you're innocent. I'll never be able to face my daughters again if you're lynched and innocent. But then, if you're a wolf (which is seemingly quite likely) what else can a mother do besides protect her young, even from their father.....?
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All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression. |
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#17 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Nogrod claimed that his tiff with Loki was just day one banter, but his very first post of the day, while it had the dressings of nonsense, was actually an accusation. Naturally, a wolf learning the identity of a former teammate and an obvious innocent would act as quickly as possible to throw doubt on him, which is exactly what Nogrod did. Nogrod started off the day by trying to muddy up the waters rather than trying to clear him. If he doubted Loki so much, why did he never ask for the "true" convert to come forward? I think it's because Nogrod really believed Loki, and thus wanted him dead.
I also found several contradictions. In his effort to make Loki doubtful, Nogrod said that he didn't believe Loki would be a good choice; however, later on he admits that high-profile players (the opposite of Loki) would likely be avoided by the wizards. The there was this: I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon I'm sad that Loki had to go. Then, Nogrod makes a point of suspecting the people who voted for him- one very wolfish tactic, to be sure. He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players. He expresses this point three times in 4 posts. It seems quite clearly an attempt to throw suspicion away from him. I'd also like to point out that Nogrod was never mentioned on SPM's list of possible wolf candidates, making SPM the safest kill for him of the night. Also, Day 1 saw very little of Nogrod's usual theorizing and discussion, and while he had quite a few posts, they were of little substance. According to my lorebook, that's something that various Nogrod's of the past have frowned upon as suspicious. And really, while vote updates are a common thing from the Nogrods of the past, that many of them in succession with nothing else is highly unlike the Nogrods of the past.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#18 | ||
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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commenting as I'm reading the thread...
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However, this is why it's that much more wrong: If I was EW, I wouldn't have picked them. Well... not two of them. Loki, yes. Lalaith and Lhuna, no. I'd have picked Loki, the phantom, and JennyHallu. One newbie to be taken for granted, one "yeah freaking right", and one just subtle enough to make a right evil wolf. That and Jen's been evil so often that I wouldn't want to break with tradition. Next night would be morm, next would be Cailin. Actually, I might have tossed Nilp into the mix. I like my variety, wouldn't you know. Still, I'm dead curious as to why you picked Lalaith and Lhuna for me and why you support the theory of Fea=EW. Next tangent: I liked the cannon fodder idea. Quote:
Here's my afternoon schedule: stop procrastinating and write a story due at 2:15; go to class; work; don't get back until the Day is over. So I have to vote for somebody. Since Roa denies being "the friend," I'm now fascinated by her strong defense of Loki. Why would anybody be defending anybody unless they had a reason? If her reason isn't that they're the friends, what is it? Since I don't have any more time to ponder, I'm going to go with that reasoning. She defended somebody very staunchly and that's a stupid idea in such an unpredictable village. ++ROA
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peace
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#19 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#20 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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peace
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#21 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Fea, I thought the reasons I gave for my defense of Loki were quite good. If you disagree, you're welcome to do so, but I'd like an explanation. I'd also like to point out that I was not the only one who deemed Loki innocent. At least Morm and Firefoot believed the same as I, and there may have been others, but I'm not really aware of them at the moment. As for me being just as good a choice as any, there are plenty of suspcions being thrown around today, some of which have actually good backings behind them. Maybe you should check a bit more carefully before you accuse.
And as a notice to everyone, please do not just throw away your votes randomly. We are beyond day one, and nothing has really changed except for one player switching from good to evil. We have 8 pages of evidence. randomness is not needed. Please give more thought to your votes.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#22 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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++Feanor Edit: Cross-posted with Thinlomien.
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And tonight we can truly say, together we're invincible... Middle-Earth Football World Cup 2007 |
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#23 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Okay... I'm really going to stop procrastinating now. Paper... due at 2:15... must write it... *tears self away from village*
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peace
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#24 |
Twisted Taleswapper
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity
Posts: 1,706
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There has been lots of talk today so far....I see I have a vote....from Nilp! I will not defend myself on this because looking at crossposting is no way to find a wolf! Now I did find it odd that SPM got killed last night.I would have thought the wolves would want to keep him around, seeing as he gets lots of suspicion...I have many thoughts on who I think could be baddies, but not much to back them up with yet...I will post my thoughts anyways since my gut seems to be right alot of the time, even if noone notices till after I'm dead...
Baddies? Celuien Caranlondien Spawn Lhuna Glirdan Kitanna Firefoot Alcarillo Cailin Oddwen Azaelia Lalaith Naria Eonwe Gurthang Goodies? Diamond Roa Lommy Nogrod Kath Sleepy Mormegil Valier Feanor Phantom Jenny Eomer Nilp Ok I know there is alot of Baddies, but some I could not put down as Goodies yet so they stay there for now....My biggest suspects for toDay would be....Celuien, Caran, Kitanna, Naria, Alcarillo .Not that I have any concrete evidence yet, but I go with what I feel and toDay I thought of these....I will be around for the rest of the day, so I will have more time to read through and post some more.
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grand return?........ Last edited by Valier; 05-15-2006 at 11:27 AM. Reason: Fixed list |
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#25 | |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel
Posts: 339
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The voting thus far: (and please correct me if I'm wrong) 1. Nilp --> Valier (Valier 1) 2. Celuien --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1) 3. Oddwen --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2) 4. Diamond --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1) 5. Feanor --> Roa (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1) 6. Sleepy --> Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1, Feanor 1) 7. Lommy --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Feanor 1) |
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#26 |
Beloved Shadow
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*Phantom pops into the village tavern*
"I'll be able to speak in about three hours. Just letting everyone know so you didn't wonder where I was." *Phantom pops back out of the village tavern* "Probably off with Zali," observed several villagers.
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
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