Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Oh, and just so everyone knows, the lynch list was the phantom's idea.

Anybody have questions?

I really think this is a good plan. I'll be back within an hour, probably to post my list.

Well, I suppose it's a good plan for not revealing your Gifteds. The thing that worries me is that if you pick four people I don't have any strong suspicion of and don't think should be voted for, I'm still forced to vote for them or be considered as disobedient and evil. And the idea of having to vote for someone I more or less find innocent, lest I be castigated and lynched, rankles me.

So I suppose it depends on your list. I understand why you can't take nominees, so I guess there's really nothing I can say about who I would consider worthy lynch candidates, besides what thoughts I've already given. I feel like I've come under suspicion just because you dislike my style and don't find my posts to be particularly worthy contributions, and as I have not intended them as space wasting filler, it bothers me. But I suppose I'll just hush up now, as it doesn't matter.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Valier (from yesterDAY) and now Roa and Di has me uneasy.

[Diamond18]

Ummmm... Nilp, are you saying you're the Seer?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Good job, son. I really thought morm was the GW.

I'm still uneasy about Zali, too, vzv.

So, if you ask me what I think:

NIGHT 1: Zali, ++Nogrod, ++**Loki

NIGHT 2:++Naria

NIGHT 3: Valier

NIGHT 4: Roa, Diamond, **Nilp

++ - killed
** - scried by the GW

[Roa_Aoife]

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Are you the seer? Do I need to tear my Firefoot analysis into little pieces now?

[Diamond18]

Nilpy Nilpy Nilpy, where did you go? Well, I can't think of any other reason for Nilp's assurance, so... yay! Firefoot was someone I was fairly suspicious of, so it's nice to be able to take her out of contention.

x-posted with Nilp. Seems my patented "three name call" is still working.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm going to assume this means your the ex-seer. Unless Gurthang says otherwise, I'm inclined to believe you, too. So.. . *tears up Firefoot analysis* Glad that's out of the way. Now I don't know whether to wait for Gurthang's list and risk ignoring someone truly suspicious, or to move forward on my own and risk being "disobedient." (I despise being told what I can and cannot do... does it show much?)

Edit: Cross-posted with Gurthang.

Chill out. No one accused you of anything. We don't like your plan, but that doesn't mean we think you're stupid. We just don't like the idea of having you choose who we can and cannot look at. It's not because we doubt you or your abilities, it's because we like to think things out for ourselves. As I said, it becomes more of You vs the baddies, than Us vs. the baddies, and that is something I wish to avoid. So relax. Just because we don't to accept you as our dictator doesn't me we don't like you.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

(I despise being told what I can and cannot do... does it show much?)

Yes. And I happen to be in the same boat, so Gurthang and Nilp are going to flog us with dead fish. I don't much mind a fish flogging as long as it's not fatal.

I was going to wait until tomorrow and was heavily leaning toward voting for Kitanna, based on my finding her the most suspicious, but since I am not allowed, fine, whatever, I'm just a little Ordo and I'll let the big important Gifteds call the shots. Meh.

+ + Azaelia

Not around, can't defend herself, my own dear daughter. But I voted for her yesterDay and so she's the only real choice I'm inclined to vote for off of the list.

Oh, and I'm voting early since I don't see anymore point in saying anything that's not sanctioned by Gurthang or Nilp -- and I'm not in a mood to PM them all my posts for approval.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, the fact that Nilp just came out and gave us information kind of invalidates this post I've been working on... But I'm going to post it anyway! I spent a darned long time on it! So here's what I was going to say...

About Gurthang's plan...

These are our villagers:
1. Diamond
2. Caranlondien
3. Roa Aoife
4. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
5. Kath
6. Lommy
7. Glirdan
8. Valier
9. Sleepy Ranger
10. Kitanna
11. Firefoot
12. Alcarillo
13. Oddwen
14. mormegil
15. Feanor
16. Zali
17. Jenny Hallu
18. Lalaith
19. Eonwe
20. Eomer
21. Nilpaurion
22. Gurthang

We now know the last of those to be the GW. So that brings us down to 21 unknowns (for us ordos, anyway). If we vote on our own, we have a 5/21 (a little less than 1 in 4) chance of getting a baddie.

Now, Gurthang knows the identities of two innocents, correct? The Hunter and the former Seer. So for him there are 19 unknowns. 5 of those 19 are baddies. So eliminating the middle steps, our chances are 5/19 of getting a baddie. The middle steps can't hurt our chances, and they might help them (I'm not so good at statistics...).

The psychological problem with the proposed plan is that the choice is less in our hands. But from a randomly speaking point of view, our chances are improved.

You might read lorebooks saying my ancestors have been known to argue against plans based on statistics. It's true. But in those cases, it was because I felt that the game wasn't random, because we were using our own judgement. But in a village this big, with so much uncertainty, and with people's roles changing, I think we are as near randomness as we can get.

Listen to the GW!