Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

If you choose not to, then you can try to get people to see things from your point of view, and try to explain why it doesn't make you evil!

I'm not getting this impression from our illustrious former Seer. But, we'll see how the rest of the Day goes.

[Kitanna]

Gurthang's plan isn't entirely foolproof, we still stand a damn good chance and lynching innocents with it by picking one of the names from his list, but we also have a good chance of getting more wolves (maybe even the EW).
I have doubts of this plan, but I think it is defiantely worth a try and the GW is really the best defense the village has.
So I understand the frustration (anger even) from Roa and Diamond.

That said I looked at the four names that Gurthang gave us and I think I'm the only one who doesn't see anything overly suspicious about Zali or Valier. It's probably because I have been paying more attention to other villagers. As for Eomer I still hold my suspicions from yesterday about him and I view Roa as an in between. So I'll just go over all of their posts and make a decision based on my findings.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm not getting this impression from our illustrious former Seer. (Diamond)

Ugh, I feel so light-headed.

Sorry if I misunderstood y'all. The impression I had is, you'd still vote for whomever you suspect, even ignoring the plan. From your posts I thought I saw a willingness to go over the Good Wizard's head.

If I was wrong, well . . . I'm really sorry for that. Well, I'll be dead enedwaith. So at least Gurthang's attack dog ( ) will be gone the next DAY.

So, depending on whether Gurthang's timezone situation can allow it, tomorrow we (or rather you):

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.

Plan okay with everyone?

[Lalaith]

I said I would apologise if I was wrong about Loki and I was - so I do.
Sorry, Lynched Loki.
Now for some closer reading....

[Lalaith]

First off, I'll state the fairly obvious and say the Hunter should stay well hidden for now.
Secondly, I had formulated a plan myself that was more or less like the one Nilp just sketched out up there *points.* So I obviously agree with you, Nilp. This plan should also make our individualists happy, as well, we all a chance get to shape the village's destiny. I hope there'll be time for Gurth to draw up tomorrow's shortlist. If not, then maybe you could do it, Nilp, before nightfall.

Gurth, I *knew* there was something different about you. I thought it was something bad different. I thoroughly approve of your suggestion of looking at the list of who the EW picked to do what. It might tell us something. We should also bear in mind that the wolves - and presumably the EW as he would have approved the kills - wanted you dead last night. Why?
Did you say something, or was it a similar case to what I believe led to Cailin's death - that most thought her innocent? On the other hand, given the fact that most people trusted Cailin, why didn't the EW make her a wolf? So did Cailin say something, too? What players might the EW have made into wolves last night?

As for the lynch-list, I'm currently inclined to vote Valier. No offence, Valier, in fact quite the contrary. So much has been said about your wolf-spotting instincts, I suspect that the EW would rather have you inside the tent than out.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I hope there'll be time for Gurth to draw up tomorrow's shortlist. If not, then maybe you could do it, Nilp, before nightfall. (Lalaith)

Um, not me! Why, I've timezones so horrible I could be awake for three-fourths of the day and still miss the action!

Maybe Firefoot, another proven innocent, could help. Yes, she definitely should, at least for toDAY, while we're sure she's innocent.

Vzv, where's Zali?

[Lalaith]

Yes, timezones, of course. Ok, Firefoot it is then (if Gurthang can't do it for whatever reason.) No-one else can be trusted.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Argh, should have remembered this sooner.

Only Gurthang can do it. He has the name of the Hunter. What if the Hunter is under suspicion, and we include him in the list, and then we lynch him? BIG trouble.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Oh... I was already wondering what all the black cloaks were doing in my laundry basket. Wise decision, Gurthang and Nilp, to step forward.

Originally Posted by Nilp

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.

This is very much how I'd like to see things to be done because even though it were Gurthang who had the last word in nominating the lynching candidates, we are all still able to see who chose to make a case against whom, how they reacted etc. The Days will pass in usual Wizard/Wolf catching style, but the voting just will be a bit different.

Right now I'm baffled by this issue between Valier and Roa. It's clear that Valier wasn't the Seer, so I wonder what has made her so unusually confident about Roa. I know Valier has excellent instincts, but the way she's been campaigning against Roa seems odd. I must admit that I've had some suspicions of Roa, too, but they seem to be based more on a gut feeling than anything concrete.

My first thought when Gurthang revealed himsef was that the EW won't probably argue against the plan (if the EW has already spoken). They will accept it trying to appear helpful, and if none of their minions is on the list, why shouldn't they? If the EW has Wolves on the list, s/he will sacrifice them because it's safer than to start arguing against a clear plan. If that theory is right, it would indicate that Roa isn't the EW. However, the EW's picks (Loki, Nogrod, Naria, Nilp) look like something that Roa could choose, and Roa did vote according to the plan although it was spiced up with some sarcasm.

Anyway, if we assume that the EW has posted toDay (which isn't certain), the person that looks the most EWish to me would be Fea. It could possibly be due to her "mind-numbing headache", but I found her early posts odd. Besides, I think Fea would have been a good match for Gurthang as the other Wizard.

Originally Posted by Nilp

We should give thought to the silent players. What do we do about them?

True. It's just so hard to anylyse people who don't talk. Sleepy has made 3 posts and so has Eonwe. Oddwen has spoken 5 times, Zali seven...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

We should give thought to the silent players. What do we do about them?