Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Gurthang]

Roa, I ask that you not be upset with Nilp either, please. He and I are kind of in the same boat here.

We're both 'proven' innocents. So we proclaim ourselves thinking that the village will be all "Oh, yeah, we know two people who are NOT EVIL" and that you would all rally around us. Yet our proclaimations, well mostly mine, was met with disapproval of the plan I wanted to use to help the village. It's definitely a dream killer, if you will. It's very difficult to know how to respond in that situation.

But, now, I must take my own advice and analyse our four candidates for toDay.

Oh, and Roa, I was serious. The only reason you're on the "List of Death" ( ) is because that coin came up heads. (Actually, it bounced under my bed when I flipped it, and it took me about a minute to find it and see how it had landed. )

[Valier]

Mormegil I still don't understand your reasoning on me being made a wolf two nights ago, why would I then try my hardest to get people to vote for Roa? I believe she is the EW and lynching her will prove my suspisions. I assure you I read everything, but my mind sometimes gets muddled with all the extra stuff going on in this game, but I do not think I'm careless. Even if I was a wolf I would surely read everthing more careful, would I not? because making up lies is far harder than telling the truth or how I feel, which has been what I've been doing. I understand how others think I look suspicious but, like always in the Lore books if you check I am always found innocent when lynched because of my weird outbursts and accusations. I am leaning towards voting for Roa again since I would like her to be exposed for the EW I think she is, but I will wait until tomorrow (my time) to read through more and vote.

[Caranlondien]

Well, after some time away clearing my mind, then re-reading a bit and trying to collect my wits, I've come to the conclusion that I desperately need some sleep. I'll be back sometime around 3pm GMT.

[Diamond18]

My Post On All Things Kitanna

I’m not going to recap her posts: you wanna read ’em, click on the link.

#90

Nothing particularly suspicious, as such, but as a wolf she could easily be picking up on the criticism of Loki and zeroing in on a weak member of the village. She expresses agreement with both tp and Gurthang on a plan, which could be honest agreement or just wanting to appear positive.

#195

In voting for Loki she is remaining consistent with her one other post, which is not wolfish per se but can be considered cautious. I find it interesting that she never really seems to consider that he could be telling the truth.

#303

I don’t find anything suspicious in this post.

#315

Interestingly, when Roa questions her vote and reasons for voting Loki, she really doesn’t say anything about beyond commenting about Nogrod and Loki... doesn’t really stand up for her own reasons, beyond saying it was a blanket statement by Loki that made her suspect him. But, the rest of the post seems reasonable. Yet... I’m wary of cautiousness and her posting feels quite cautious.

#329

Well, all her points about Nogrod are quite “on” as he did in fact turn out to be a wolf. One reason why I didn’t remember her Day 2 posting very clearly is because her posts weren’t very suspicious in and of themselves -- but consider that going along with what a lot of people were saying about Nogrod is quite a canny way of making up for contributing to Loki’s death.

I, by the way, did the same thing as Kitanna voting-wise -- first Loki, than Nogrod. But I made my case and my vote for Nogrod before Roa really went after him, whereas Kitanna did it after. So, make of that whatever you will.

#444

Now comes Day 3, when started getting bad feelings about her. She starts out defending Celuien here, but will end up voting for her eventually. She also seems to lean towards agreeing about Eomer being the evil wizard, which could be cautiously testing the bandwaggoning waters.

#448

Here she starts turning away from her defense of Celuien (and me) -- in the first half of the post she seems to be on Celuien’s side (cautiously) but at the end makes what I still feel is a very odd comment in response to me. As I’ve said, why should that comment I made make her regret defending Celuien?

#513

Here is where her reasoning continues to puzzle me. She initially defended Celuien’s pre-defense of her actions, but now she finds it condemning enough to vote for her. Like I said, I didn’t find Celuien’s posting that day to worsen my perception of her, yet as she came under more suspicion Kitanna found her defense of herself to be less warranted. Interesting.

#592

I felt like she was sidestepping my question here, making a rather unnecessary clarification. I don’t know, did anyone else think I was talking about THE phantom?

#598

Here’s an answer, but not one I’m totally comfortable with. She says that she was referring all the way back to Celuien’s first post of the game -- but this is the same post she defended, and when she actually did vote, she said it was because of:

Celuien's continued defense of phantom accusations of herself.

and

when Celuien continued it and regarded anyone looking at her as a "pointless arguement" I began to suspect her even more.

So her vote was not, in fact, about the earliest posting, it was about the later posting, which I found less suspicious, not more.

#620

Now, this interests me, because it’s very safe. She’s not taking sides with anyone in particular... which isn’t totally wolfish, but it continues her mostly safe way of doing things. I do not expect the Evil Wizard or one of his wolves to have the temerity to butt heads with him on thread, here, so this fits with my expectation of how a cautious baddy would react to the news of the Good Wizard’s coming out party.

In Summary:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kitanna is innocent and all this has a reasonable explanation. But that, in itself, worries me -- Kitanna is exactly the sort of middle-ground, slightly-under-the-radar, comes-across-as mostly-reasonable-because-of-her-cool-tone sort of Wolf I’d want if I were the EW. So the fact that I can pick up on niggling things in her posts makes me fear having her around, quietly being evil. She’s like a spider, I’m afraid when I can’t get a clear view of her. (Um, I don’t mean that to be insulting, Kit, I’m just highly arachnophobic, so that seemed like an apt analogy.)

Plus, we’ve already seen the EW choose the Loud Wolf (Nogrod) the Unknown Element Wolf (Loki) and the Super Uber Quiet Wolf (Naria). Kitanna is the fourth type of poster and since the EW has selected one from each of the other demographics, I’m feeling that someone like Kitanna and Azaelia may have rounded out the pack.

This all said, I’m not as upset about voting Azaelia as I may have sounded -- yeah, like Roa, I pretty much voted early in a state of pique with Nilpaurion Knowitall but like I said, Zali was my pick yesterDay and I haven’t seen anything from her that changes my previous view.

[Gurthang]

Just thought I'd update this, if anyone still wants to try this method of reasoning:

The Evil Wizard did pick:

Loki
Naria
Nogrod
Nilp
(hmm... maybe s/he does have a fascination with allteration *coughFeacough* )

The Evil Wizard did not pick:

The Saucepan Man
the phantom
Celuien
Lhunardawen
Cailín
Firefoot


morm, the list is final for toDay. Tomorrow, it may change quite a bit. Then again it may not change but for one. I won't say for sure until then.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, I'd love to debate you a bit more, Gurthang, but it's near 1:00 am where I am, and I have an early day tomorrow. I hope to be back on several hours before voting closes.

[Diamond18]

My Post On All Things Azaelia

Might as well, since I voted for her, and she’s my second suspect behind Kit.

#104

Nothing much to comment on -- besides that she agrees with me about Loki’s ’tude and that she’s against focusing on the middle-ground people such as herself. Though she words it in a rather humble matter, she is basically saying, “Oh, the wizard wouldn’t pick little ol’ meeee.” I do, however, agree that it wasn’t a good idea to make a list of people you consider middle ground and ignore the rest, so she’s not saying anything strictly controversial.

But see my above comments on non-controversial posting.

#113

A time zone clarification... really, you’d think from looking at the whole time zone discussion that no one remembered to look at this site. Okay, that didn’t really have anything to do with Zali, but I thought I’d comment. Anyway, this is Zali’s second post of the entire game.... Now that’s a low profile.

#196

Votes for Loki for basically, it would seem, the same reasons that I did -- but she’s careful to point out that she is not bandwaggoning, despite how it looks, and even says she doesn’t like bandwaggoning. And then apologizes if it “looks” rushed... she seems very concerned with how she is perceived.

#227

Starts right off with yet another agreement, this time with Caran, and then speculates on why Sauce was killed. This isn’t particularly noteworthy except that it is yet another safe post, as it was fairly obvious to most people that Sauce was killed for his staggering intellect. (And I’m only being half facetious ’bout that, Sauce. ;;-)

#349

A vote for Nogrod late in the day -- easy to do, since he was looking mighty suspicious. So, more bandwaggoning, but she yet again makes a point of saying that she is not bandwaggoning, it just looks that way.

#382

Interesting that she had defended Alcarillo the previous say but now says he’s looking mighty suspicious. She compares his in character stuff to my in character stuff, using mine as a positive example -- and as counterintuitive as it may sound, this worried me, because no one usually says good things about my in character posting. *_* Maybe I’m just being ungrateful. But, it still worries me that she turned on Alcarillo based on, it seems, Morm’s continued suspicion of him. Then, she edits to agree some more with Morm that Eomer is now highly suspicious.

#387

More of the preoccupation with how her actions appear, and apologizing for them. Continuing to suspect Alcarillo and Eomer, and votes for Eomer in what seems to be a parroting of Morm’s whole case against him. As this preceded the announcement of RL issues that would keep her away for a long time, I can see how as an innocent she would go for the most persuasive argument around -- but since this was her apparent modus operandi all game, it unsettles me all the more.

In Summary:

All my points about safe posting in Kit’s analysis go for Azaelia but on a higher level. All her posts contained agreeable comments with other people’s theories, except when it came to focusing on quiet people like herself as wolves. I won’t say that her behavior cannot be justified as an innocent, but in my view that makes it all the more dangerous if she is, indeed, a wolf.

[Diamond18]

For my own curiosity I'd like to do a post on all things Fea -- but I fear I won't be doing it anytime soon, as she has 23 posts in Days 1-3 (and a couple more toDay) and such a task tonight would surely be the end of my sanity. What little a week of Werewolf has left me. Perhaps I will wait till she is actually a sanctioned lynch candidate.

I see that Valier is the favorite to die so far, and I don't really agree with that. Val strikes me as an innocent who got a bit sloppy because as an Ordo she has nothing much to lose and wasn't thinking things through enough. My lorebooks don't tell me anything about evil ancestors of hers and how they might have behaved, so I'm a little lost on that score. I could do a post by post analysis but that would more than unhinge me, it would leave me gasping for breath on the floor. Sorry Val. But I count 37 posts Day 1-3 and a few more for toDay so far.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Caran

All right, this looks like I'm jumping on a bandwagon, but my internet connection was down and I haven't really had time to explain my thinking...

++Celuien

I don't really feel good about voting for any of the choices. I was leaning towards Zali, but I just don't want to vote for her when she's not here, for obvious reasons. And I had missed the points on Celuien, too. Sorry if you're innocent, Celuien!

Okay in post 593 Caran brought this back up and it alarmed me. It always alarms me when people decide them must vote for one of the top candidates. It screams that they don't want to stand out. If you really don't think Celuien guilty then don't vote for her. Does this make sense? It appears that she's so concerned with making herself stand out that she makes it a point to fit it with the main stream.

Unfortunately the village is still so large that it makes it difficult to think about everybody. I sense that most of us are focusing one 2 to 3 people each. But to reread this entire thread would be crazy. This is so frustrating because of the aspect of people potentially changing from one day to the next.

Diamond you've left yourself unanalyzeable due to your size and frequency of posts . I think you have some valid points about Kitanna and I'm glad you are looking at her because I know that I have not been able to. Regarding Zali you are bringing up points that I have felt for a while. I'm not sure how I feel about Kitanna being guilty but it could be a potential.

Valier everything fits so well that you would have been converted two nights ago. Your drastic behavior shift and your posts that where you kept persiting the points about the phantom and your post today.

[Gurthang]

I just had a good sized post destroyed; about 10 quotes or so from our four.

I'll look about getting those quotes tomorrow, but basically here's what I found:

Eomer - Could be evil, but he seems sincere to me. If he is bad, he's pulling a great bluff.

Valier - Her sudden switch after Night 3 is what really troubles me. She jumped to four new suspects, none of whom she had been suspicious of before, and then went all out for one of them. I believe her about her insticts being good, but I wouldn't put that much trust in them. And then there was this weird confession post...

Azaelia - mostly what I see as suspicious is her vote for Eomer yesterday. Yet that's about the only thing.

Roa - I found her pretty consistant the first few days. Between yesterday and toDay, though, she did change. She said before last Night that Valier was a misguided innocent. ToDay she said she'd be looking at her and then voted for her.

So for me it's between Valier and Roa. I'm leaning towards Valier, but I'll see what developes. I'm going to bed, I'll be back in the morning to vote.