Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

My problem with the list is that there's no-one on it apart from Fea that I think could be the EW.

I've been meaning to ask this, but is there any specific reason why the list has to be limited to only 4 people? There are still 19 living people, so I personally think the option pool could be at least slightly larger without giving away too much about who's Gifted or not.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

I've been meaning to ask this, but is there any specific reason why the list has to be limited to only 4 people? There are still 19 living people, so I personally think the option pool could be at least slightly larger without giving away too much about who's Gifted or not.

Well, first day we try it, there's 22 people. So I put four on the list. At that time there were four wolves, so let's say we had two on the list. And me as the Good Wizard. That narrows the EW's "possibly gifted" list to 14 people, since he knows the two innocents on the list won't be gifted and he knows all four of his wolves and me.

Two die at night, another is gifted. Total 19 people left. Still four wolves, this time two gifteds. Four listees, let's say I'm lucky and we have two wolves again (unlikely). That's still runs 7 people off the list, so it's down to 11 already. Plus, there were two people on yesterday's list who the EW knows aren't gifted. One might have been a wolf, but that's still down to 10.

And that's a high estimate. It might be as low as 7. (If Valier was the only wolf on yesterday's list and no wolves are on toDay's list.) Assuming I'll have anyone new on the list tomorrow, that could be down to 4, counting two wolf kills toNight, and three gifteds in that stack.

Basically, four is pushing it. It narrows down the field of possible gifteds too quickly for the EW. If we had five on the lists, he would have great odds changing/killing a gifted toNight.

Originally Posted by Diamond18

If I obey the list, my vote toDay will be either given to Azaelia or Alcarillo. Problem is, I do not think that either of these people is the Evil Wizard... just possibly wolves. And are we, or are we not, looking for the Evil Wizard?

Truthfully, no. I have realized that, although you could find him by lynching, it is unlikely. There are far more wolves, so I actually think you should try to keep their numbers down. If you find the EW in the process, well that would be the best luck ever.

Originally Posted by Jenny

Kitanna, my dear, excepting Gurthang, any of us could be a wolf. And I don't like that this analysis mode was such a sudden change, and no one else picked up on that. Sudden changes are what I most fear in this game.

I noticed it too. I've been busy all Day so far, but I'm going to get to reading everything by all four before the deadline.

But now, again, I have to leave... this time for church. Later.

[Lalaith]

I've looked into the lorebooks about Alcarillo. (We should have a village librarian, all this lorebook study...) When he's innocent, he's lynched or eaten early. When he's not, he survives until late or almost til the end.
Make of that what you will.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Lalaith, you make interesting points in your post #754.

I've to go now and I'm in a hurry, so here are my final thoughts.

Zali - my opinion about her hasn't changed. She might very well be a Wolf.

Kitanna - she has been really helpful with her analyses, but as others have said, her sudden helpfulness is a bit odd. I haven't had time to analyse her, so I can't tell if there's something else that looks weird in her posts.

Fea - the one on the list who looks the most EWish.

Alcarillo - possibly a Wolf.


I really think that catching the EW would be most useful now, so therefore I vote for

++Fea

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I've been quiet on the issue because I do not wish to be an orphan (or the sole member of my family), but I can see what you all mean about Alcarillo. He seems pretty suspicious, and I am very convinced that his death will be provided by the noose.

I don't think he's the EW. Now, you may think this is a somewhat dangerous strategy, and I am well aware of the troubles we could face, but don't you think it would be worth lynching our females to get the EW? I am certain the Great One made the EW female to balance the male GW. Don't you all think that's very likely?

(And I'm not just saying that because some people suspect I'm the EW. )

Tell me what you think. I still reckon it's Fea, and because I'm not about to argue with Gurthang (whose plan, in my opinion, is a mathematically good one) I will almost certainly be voting for Fea today.

A couple of you have today stated that she seems pretty clingy on the issue of RL. This definitely worries me. She's probably not a wolf (she'd make the most horrendous wolf pick) but being the EW she needs to buy time. That's why she keeps up this charade concerning RL difficulties, such as her earlier "I should have asked to come out of the game like Lhuna", to put her doom on hold, to make us give her the benefit of the doubt. That's fine from her point of view: she doesn't need to survive 'til the end; she just needs a good run to create numerous monsters.

Yes Fea, I'm being stubborn; but so what?

Another point I was considering yesterday. I noticed a couple of comments concerning Roa's and Diamond's unhappiness with Gurthang's plan. They seemed to be like: "Oh, no wolf would come out that strongly against the GW in public." But isn't this what the evil ones would bank on? We're all thinking it would be more likely for the monsters to just hide in the shadows as regards the plan of the GW; and this grants them the privilege to hide in the open, as it were.

Just a thought. Maybe those two (or one of them) are particularly bold and have hit upon a new method of allaying suspicion.

[Sleepy Ranger]

I've been quiet on the issue because I do not wish to be an orphan (or the sole member of my family), but I can see what you all mean about Alcarillo. He seems pretty suspicious, and I am very convinced that his death will be provided by the noose.

After reading what little I could I'm not really inclined to believe Alcarillo could be a wolf or the evil wizard. And in all honesty I'm not really sure how well our past performances would be a valid point in this game, quite some fluctuation, isn't there?

I am certain the Great One made the EW female to balance the male GW. Don't you all think that's very likely?

Quite likely, do you suggest we begin searching for Gurthang's female equivalent? I am inclined to believe it is a female, in fact I've been inclined to believe a female was the evil wizard right off the bat but that was probably because of too much Kingdom Hearts...

Tell me what you think. I still reckon it's Fea, and because I'm not about to argue with Gurthang (whose plan, in my opinion, is a mathematically good one) I will almost certainly be voting for Fea today.

Hmm... I'll probably vote Fea again as I've done twice before, the words Fea and Evil are synonymous.

A couple of you have today stated that she seems pretty clingy on the issue of RL. This definitely worries me. She's probably not a wolf (she'd make the most horrendous wolf pick) but being the EW she needs to buy time.

That would actually be a brilliant reason to make her a wolf. Is somebody trying to protect one of his minions? No, of course not you're setting it up against her. Quite possibly a move on your part to clear yourself?

That's why she keeps up this charade concerning RL difficulties, such as her earlier "I should have asked to come out of the game like Lhuna", to put her doom on hold, to make us give her the benefit of the doubt. That's fine from her point of view: she doesn't need to survive 'til the end; she just needs a good run to create numerous monsters.

Yeah, that doesn't sound kind of sneaky then again I havent been around much either. And no the evil wizard doesn't need to go the end but it would be nice to. Eomer, are you sure you didn't turn Fea into a wolf and are now trying to get her lynched as the EW but in the end shall be a werewolf and hence get you at least a bit in the clear?

Eomer or Fea...? Who shall I got with? Further study is required.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

You know what? I'm under suspicion again. Terrific.

People have said they're going to wait to hear what I have to say for myself. I've already said all I can say, in my triple post yesterday.

Here's a quick review.

A. I'm not the evil wizard. I don't have enough time. And the amount of suspicion I've come under is pretty much all the proof that is necessary that I would be a really dumb choice for a wolf.

B. Again, You all could do worse than to lynch me today--I'm not a gifted, or anything else special. All you'll be doing is lowering the ratio of people with special roles to those without, which has got to be helpful for the village, though I'm certainly not advocating deliberately lynching an ordinary villager.

C. I have not been playing well, and I know it. I think my brain is having a stupid week. I'm smarter than this, and if I was a wolf, I'd certainly be working a little harder to attract less suspicion. I've made some dumb choices

and D. [in character nonsense] If I die, I'll be with my love Phantom. It'll be an escape from a village that seems wrongfully bent on my destruction. [/in character nonsense]

I'm at the point where I feel like I'm under attack from all directions and that not all of this attention is deserved. Morm seems to be trying to make me look guilty, but I suppose it's fairly easy to do that. He's been helpful in the past, but I feel like I'm under attack, rather than just under criticism.

I'd like to hear more from Alcarillo. I still am getting red flags from him, and I feel that he's sort of trying to fade into the background after making some mistakes. This makes me nervous.

I've made mistakes, I know, and I own up to it. I'm not trying to fade away.

He, on the other hand, has made mistakes and is dealing with it by trying to vanish. I'm not into that, and I want to hear what he has to say for himself. I'll probably be voting for him again today.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I very much regret my inability to post more and of more substance. I don't really know what to do right now (just like last night) stemming from how I've been unable to do more than read as I go and develop a few thoughts that way. I have nothing conclusive on anybody.

However I have the whole next six hours free, I'm in my right state of mind, and I'm not in any excruciating pain.

Exactly what does the village need done right now that I can do to help?

[Kath]

My computer is taking an age to load pages (if it ever gets there ) so I'm going from what I remember from my readthrough earlier. I think I'm right in saying that the list goes:

Zali
Fea
Alcarillo
Kitanna

Assuming that's correct, I don't think Kitanna is a wolf. I've simply seen nothing that would suggest that over the last few Days. However, I would be more inclined to believe that she was the EW, but that depends on a certain set of circumstances being true and until I can get this useless lump to work properly I won't put that theory up in case I've been imagining things.

Zali - I don't really get the suspicion around her, could someone explain that please?

Fea I think innocent. As I recall from my lorebooks, she does often bring RL into her posts so I don't find that suspicious, and I can well believe that she is too busy to be the EW. She could be a wolf but I don't think it likely that she would be this early.

So that leaves me with Alcarillo. Someone put up an analysis of him (I think it was spawn) that showed him in a rather unfavourable light. He has done a lot of in character posts which, while not suspicious in themselves, do become so when the game has been going a while and there is absolutely no substance in the post. He has also been very defensive, often a wolvish trait.

If my theory on Kitanna doesn't pan out (quite likely ) I will most likely vote Alcarillo, unless someone can explain to be why Zali has generated all this suspicion.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Kath

Zali - I don't really get the suspicion around her, could someone explain that please?

I'll try my best, as it's my own life on the line...

1. I've hopped on bandwaggons.
2. I voted early for Eomer a couple days ago.
3. I've been careless.
4. I made three posts in a row in my own defence.
5. I have the unfortunate tendency to apologize for votes.

Help me out, people. What else have I done?

(I'm not sorry at all if I sound a little irritated and/or sarcastic. I'm getting a little frustrated. To defend oneself is suspicious, not to defend oneself is a pretty good way of landing in the noose without making any attempt to prevent it...and I don't know about the rest of you villagers, but I don't want to give up yet. I haven't been too helpful so far, and one can only have so many second chances...*sigh*)

Hope that clarifies things for you, Kath.

[Lalaith]

I don't think the gender of the EW is relevant and your focus on it, Eomer, is actually one of the few suspicious things about you. What with you being a bloke yerself, and that.
The reason I don't particularly suspect you as EW is that the wolf choices we know about so far aren't ones I'd expect you to make. I don't think you've played very much if at all with any of them.
They are rather Roa-ish choices which is one of the reasons I'm worried about her.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Another point I was considering yesterday. I noticed a couple of comments concerning Roa's and Diamond's unhappiness with Gurthang's plan. They seemed to be like: "Oh, no wolf would come out that strongly against the GW in public." But isn't this what the evil ones would bank on? We're all thinking it would be more likely for the monsters to just hide in the shadows as regards the plan of the GW; and this grants them the privilege to hide in the open, as it were.

I've thought about this too, and that's a reason that I find Azaelia suspicious. Her vote yesterday was definitely against everything that the plan was about, and more or less earned her another day on the list.

Azaelia is now actually looking innocent to me. Her posts, from 768 onward, are, quite frankly, the kind of thing I would do if I were in her shoes. Under a lot of suspicion and possibility/likelihood of getting lynched, I'd simply post the facts about myself. So now I don't really want to vote for her.

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, to those suspecting me simply because I might have done some thing like what's happened were I the EW, please, come up with better reasons. You don't know who I would pick or what I would do as an EW. The role is entirely different than that of a wolf, which you have recorded in you lorebooks. You can "see" me doing something to that effect, but all that is just speculation, and not really evidence.

This is true, and one reason that I think we as villagers (I may be the wizard, but I'm still a villager, too.)should be looking for the wolves. I have plenty of resources to help me find the EW during the Night, and you guys are way better at picking out who are wolves.

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

Odd choice of wording, my friend. Possibly a harmless slip but for some odd reason it clears you in my mind...

Odd, perhaps; clearing, definitely not. This makes me suspect you, Sleepy, because it really doesn't seem logical in my mind to say such a thing.

Originally Posted by Feanor

Why haven't I been scried or dreamt of? That's pretty much the first thing that's always done, but it hasn't been.

Not sure. I know I've thought about it before, but it seemed like there was always someone who I felt more urgent to know about. And I think that you being the first one scried/dreamed of makes you less likely to be picked for evil. And, by that reasoning, I do not think I wll be voting for Fea.

And lastly, as far as Roa's post (two above), there might be a point, actually. It does seem a bit flippish. But on the same note, I agree that it probably isn't anything. I think that if it was a landslide in her direction, Fea would just add to the avalanche. If it's close, she'd push it to someone else. Two different situations; two different actions.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I think that if it was a landslide in her direction, Fea would just add to the avalanche. If it's close, she'd push it to someone else. Two different situations; two different actions.

True enough. Though it's more like: at the beginning of the day, I really had no idea what I was doing based on my limited participation over the past week. Now, after having gone through things and made lists and had Ideas, I'm a lot more comfortable with actually thinking for myself.

I just accidentally hurt myself. I'm going to go try and fix it. I'll be back soon, I think. Because if it's a long-term fix like my shoulder, I'm just going to ignore it until at least 6:00.