Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Kath

Zali - I don't really get the suspicion around her, could someone explain that please?

I'll try my best, as it's my own life on the line...

1. I've hopped on bandwaggons.
2. I voted early for Eomer a couple days ago.
3. I've been careless.
4. I made three posts in a row in my own defence.
5. I have the unfortunate tendency to apologize for votes.

Help me out, people. What else have I done?

(I'm not sorry at all if I sound a little irritated and/or sarcastic. I'm getting a little frustrated. To defend oneself is suspicious, not to defend oneself is a pretty good way of landing in the noose without making any attempt to prevent it...and I don't know about the rest of you villagers, but I don't want to give up yet. I haven't been too helpful so far, and one can only have so many second chances...*sigh*)

Hope that clarifies things for you, Kath.

[Kath]

Hey ignore that Kitanna thing all, read back to check it out and realised I was in fact making things up

Cheers for that Zali, mind answering some more questions since you're around?

That early vote for Eomer, was that on the Day that Gurthang revealed himself, and if so did you vote before or after he put his list up?

Oh and if you want some advice, don't apologise for votes. I know, I know, it's natural, but it just gets on some people's nerves, and why offer them ammunition?

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Kath

Cheers for that Zali, mind answering some more questions since you're around?

No, not at all. It makes me feel like I'm being interviewed

That early vote for Eomer, was that on the Day that Gurthang revealed himself, and if so did you vote before or after he put his list up?

That vote was on Day Three. Gurthang didn't reveal himself until Day 4, which was yesterDay. I voted for Alcarillo yesterDay.

Oh and if you want some advice, don't apologise for votes. I know, I know, it's natural, but it just gets on some people's nerves, and why offer them ammunition?

No worries. I've already learned that particular lesson!

[Kath]

No, not at all. It makes me feel like I'm being interviewed

That's lucky, I've a few more to get through yet!

Ok, in that case what was it about the vote for Eomer that made you so suspicious? Or at least, what did people claim made it suspicious?

And what did you mean by you were careless? Meant to ask that earlier.

[Lalaith]

Fea, if you'd like to be useful, come up with some EW theories - there's a dear!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Will do. If y'all have anything else for me to do or any niggling questions a la Zali, I'll be lurking all afternoon.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Kath

That's lucky, I've a few more to get through yet!

Ok, in that case what was it about the vote for Eomer that made you so suspicious? Or at least, what did people claim made it suspicious?

And what did you mean by you were careless? Meant to ask that earlier.

The vote for Eomer was the first vote of the day, and it looked like a safe vote, hopping on an easily-visible future bandwaggon. It was already obvious that he'd be a big vote-earner, and so my vote looked like just a safe vote. It was honestly made out of suspicion for him, but given that I had so far voted for every bandwaggon that came along: Loki, Nogrod, and now Eomer, it looked bad. I knew it looked bad when I first made it.

Someone suggested that I just shouldn't have voted if I could only get on so early in the day...And my response to that is, it was a lose-lose situation. I knew my vote looked bad when I made it...and I had contemplated not voting at all, but after weighing the two, I decided that both would earn me about the same amount of suspicion.

The carelessness? Well, I feel like I haven't been performing up to the standard of my ancestors. It's actually a word I lifted from someone else's post, I think Morm's. Perhaps he knows better than I do. Honestly, I've just made some dumb choices--apologizing, that vote for Eomer, etc. I also haven't posted as frequently as others have.

Edit: Crossposted with Lalaith and Fea.

I'm going to vanish for a while in about 15 minutes...just as a heads-up. I'll be back later, though, so if anyone wants/needs to know anything else from me, feel free to ask.

[Roa_Aoife]

Back! A few things...

Zali, after the read through, and reading her responses to Kath, looks decidedly un-EW-ish. She also doesn't seem like a likely wolf choice, especially with all the suspicion she's come under. It could be a double bluff, or triple bluff, or whatever, but I doubt it. There's also a possibility that she's the last original, but given the number of wolves that have died, and the times at which they died, it seems highly unlikely that one of the originals remain.

Eomer is clearly a misogynist. No, I can see where his idea has merit, but if it's wrong, we run the risk of allowing the EW to escape simply by looking away from the males. Not only that, if we only lynch females, then the EW could simply make all the wolves male, and by the time we get the EW, it will be too late.

I'm still not seeing the whole Alcarillo suspicion. The claims still seem loosely based to me, and not really well founded.

Fea looks... normal, really. Which is frightening. I've only got one entry of Fea in my lorebooks (my very first story, infact), and she died early but active. It seems she and I butted heads a few times, I thought she was guilty, and she turned out to be a gifted.

Kitanna I'm not sure about. I strongly doubt her as the EW. It just doesn't seem likely. (Besides, I'm harboring a pet theory of Diamond=EW.) As a wolf, it's possible. Of course, I wonder if we might have caught a wolf turned last night?

Truthfully, no. I have realized that, although you could find him by lynching, it is unlikely. There are far more wolves, so I actually think you should try to keep their numbers down.

I think I said this on Day one. The game ends when the wolves are dead, not when the EW dies, or at least that's my understanding of it. And the longer we keep wolf numbers down, the longer we keep the EW from having an oportune time to reveal, which I suspect it's Gurthang's biggest worry. The best situation for the EW would be if we kept lynching innocents to find the EW, he kept making wolves, and suddenly, we lost our seer again. The EW might then challenge Gurthang, and remove our only chance of getting more gifteds, leaving a rather high ratio of wolves to innocents, and near impossible chances of a village victory. If we can for certain catch the EW, then by all means we should, but until then we need to catch wolves to sto pthe EW from being able to take advantage of us in a weakened state.

Also, to those suspecting me simply because I might have done some thing like what's happened were I the EW, please, come up with better reasons. You don't know who I would pick or what I would do as an EW. The role is entirely different than that of a wolf, which you have recorded in you lorebooks. You can "see" me doing something to that effect, but all that is just speculation, and not really evidence.

(We had a talk about the Da Vinci Code in church today. Does it show?)

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I have realized that, although you could find him by lynching, it is unlikely. There are far more wolves, so I actually think you should try to keep their numbers down. If you find the EW in the process, well that would be the best luck ever.

I agree. Somebody has to keep down the wolf population, right? I mean, we should of course keep theorizing about the EW-ness of different villagers, and certainly if we think the EW is on The List, we should vote for them, but in general we can leave it to Gurthang to try to find the EW at night.

Maybe the EW is purposefully acting like a wolf... [S]he could then tell the 4 wolves to loudly proclaim they think [s]he could be a wolf but not the EW, and thus we shouldn't lynch them yet. After all, the EW doesn't care about escaping suspicion entirely; [s]he is just trying to last long enough to give the wolves a good chance of winning.

I have to vote soon. I've suspected both Kitanna and Zali, but both seemed pretty innocent in their posts yesterDay. Kitanna I don't feel very worried about anymore. She's seemed helpful toDay. And Zali, well, her posts seem so earnest. I'm concerned that Zali might be fooling us with sheer earnestness, though. Still, I can keep doubting myself around in circles, or I can go with my gut. My gut tells me those two are innocent.

So, that leaves Alcarillo and Fea. Both seem a bit wolvish, but my lorebooks tell me nothing about the behavior of either. I tend to suspect Fea more, though, from others' analyses.

So, as I must go:

++Feanor

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

This post is based on how I suspect an EW might act. This is not an accusatory post, but a thinking aloud one.

There is always a general consensus that players fit into one of three categories: loud and bold, quiet and creepy, suspiciously average and non-suspicious. "He" will be used for convenience.

S1: Quiet and Creepy:

Our Evil Wizard is clever, hiding out behind villagers and wolves that are naturally loud and suspcion-drawing. He won't need to worry about attention being shifted to him until after the village has relieved itself of everyone that garners attention on their own. He could do as little as post only once in a while, saving his activity for the darkness of night, or he could be ambitious and perhaps nudge attention toward people that it's easy to set up. However, this Evil Wizard does not take chances. He is a player that is always quiet because he knows as well as anyone that switching traditional tactics is almost a guarantee of death.

S2: Loud and Bold:

This Evil Wizard plays with no holds barred. He will blatantly lie and laugh when his bluffs, double-bluffs, and even triple-mega-uber-hugeoriffic-mondo-bluffs work. This Evil Wizard is the one that knows how people think and manipulates them right out in the open. This Wizard is either somebody that you’ve suspected from the beginning or is somebody that you don’t suspect because it would be too obvious. This is the one that should have been dreamt of first night but is counting on the idea that everybody else knows it and doesn’t think he’d have the audacity to be intentionally evil when he knows perfectly well they’ll kill him. Perhaps less crazed as that, a loud Wizard might be less obviously suspicious and more generally helpful. This wizard posts theories, suspicions, occasionally defends people, and analyzes objectively (or at least as much so as one can). This Wizard, however bold he or she might be, is most definitely a vocal Wizard. This Wizard couldn’t avoid the spotlight if he wanted to, so he plays to his own fame.

S3: Suspiciously Average and Non-Suspicious

This Wizard is one of two things: everybody vaguely suspects him because he’s vaguely suspicious or everybody vaguely suspects him because he isn’t. Either way, nobody actually suspects him enough to do anything about him. He plays averagely, posting neither too much, nor too little, with careful deliberation before saying anything. He posts suspicions after careful analysis, positing few original or far-fetched theories, but rather playing purely by the facts. This Wizard is a player that is generally trusted because he is generally helpful and objective.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Next post coming soon to a store near you.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lalaith, you'll no doubt notice that I already laughed about me being male and my theory excluding me from EW-ness. Of course it's not 'relevant' as such, but I think it's very likely that the EW is female. Your own attempt to discredit such an obviously decent idea is quite suspicious in itself, especially as I think you make a better evil one than most others.

Sleepy, your idea is interesting but ultimately unlikely. Were I the EW and the village discovered it, you would no doubt go after Fea in a big way the next day, considering what I've been saying about her. So it would be stupid for me to play the way I've played if I were the EW and Fea was my minion.

Azaelia's recent posts are doing her no favours. They are extremely self-centred. If you are going to die then at least spend your remaining time giving the village your genuine thoughts, so we will be helped tomorrow. Thy constant defence is only a negative.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm not your minion ergo you could play however you wanted pertaining to me if you were EW.

still working on second big post

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, the EW could now make all his wolves male if we think along the lines 'EW = female'; but that only comes into consideration tomorrow.

Edit: Fea, you miss my point. I was demonstrating how Sleepy's theory doesn't work. He doesn't know you're not my minion.

[Thinlómien]

I'm afraid I might not be able to come back after this, so here it goes:

++Alcarillo

He hasn't sat right with me at any phase during this game. He is a wolf, I think.

Now, you must be asking, why am I after wolves though a few hours ago I was convinced that we must find the EW and raging about a stupid list. I apologise, Gurthang, O Mighty GW, I did not see the point. After reading your and Cara's posts I can see it. The village hunts wolves. GW and the seer hunt the EW.

[Glirdan]

Sorry it took me so long to get back. I kind of dozed off for a bit and just woke up.

Glirdan--Far too little talk and I always fear that this could be a diversionary tactic. Of course he wouldn't be a wolf because he's never around...but then wouldn't that be just perfect?(morm)

Did I not say that I was going to be away for two Days (four in RL)? I could have sworn I did...

Morm's analysis of Zali really makes her look guilty in my eyes, yet, I'm not quite convinced she is. How do we know that she's not a very confused innocent?

I don't think he's the EW. Now, you may think this is a somewhat dangerous strategy, and I am well aware of the troubles we could face, but don't you think it would be worth lynching our females to get the EW? I am certain the Great One made the EW female to balance the male GW. Don't you all think that's very likely?

(And I'm not just saying that because some people suspect I'm the EW. ) (Eomer)

You know, this isn't that much of a crackpot theory as it first sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if you happened to be right and it might be a good idea to follow this stratagey. Let's see, there are seven men and twelve women. Seeing as Gurthang is the GW, that leaves a total of six unkown men and still twelve unknown women. If we look at these statistics, it looks far more probable that the EW is a woman.

You know what? I'm under suspicion again. Terrific.(Zali)

[sarcasam]
No! Really? I thought it was the man in the moon.
[/sarcasam]

C. I have not been playing well, and I know it. I think my brain is having a stupid week. I'm smarter than this, and if I was a wolf, I'd certainly be working a little harder to attract less suspicion. I've made some dumb choices

Ya, I've noticed you've been playing oddly as well, which makes you suspicious. According to my books of lore, there are very few people who play the same way whether they be innocent, Gifted or Cursed and, by the looks of it, you don't fall under that category.

I'll be around if you need me.