Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Diamond, I highly doubt they're both wolves. Why would they set themselves up that way when all they need is one innocent kill? One of them is, definitely, but not both.

Well, here's my logic, such as it is:

The wolves can afford to lose one, at this point. Lalaith and Eomer have lately been gaining lost of suspicion, so it's likely one or the other will die. Instead of trying to fight this, they have embraced it and decided that if one must die they will at least make it look very good for the other. Tomorrow the survivor of this little game will then use his/her increased trustworthiness (in collusion with the third wolf) to rather effortlessly direct the village onto an innocent, ending the game. It's a more reliable tactic for an Eomer/Lalaith duo than trying to keep both of themselves alive. Fear of this one small failure could be shooting themselves in the foot, so they are meeting it head on, going at each others' throats.

I don't know any of this for sure, but it's what entered my head when I read their opening posts.

Lalaith, I'm sure you all know by now, is someone I do not feel comfortable leaving alive.

As for Aimé, yesterday I felt pretty confident in my guess that he's innocent -- but Oddwen's innocent death has somewhat shaken that. We all make mistakes, and I too voted for Oddwen, but he seemed to have instigated the lynching. Which worries me. Also, in his argument against Lalaith today he used the phrase "so sweet and innocent" which is the words I used to describe her earlier... and this coupled with my earlier declaration of trust in him makes me wonder if he's trying to take advantage of my earlier thinking him innocent. Perhaps I am a villager he thinks to use as his puppet. This could be true whether or not Lalaith is a fellow wolf. At any rate, I highly dislike the idea of being made someone's patsy so.... Perhaps I just find it odd that he's now expressing many of the same opinions about Lalaith as I did earlier, and claiming to have felt so all along, when I don't remember him being particularly anti-Lalaith before. (Perhaps I need to go back and read his posts more closely.)

But I do not want to abandon my pursuit of Lalaith and turn on Eomer so quickly -- that would be ignoring instincts in the light of a little new confusion, and somehow it seems to me that abandoning instinct is the worst thing to do. If my instinct leads me foul, at least I can live with that, if I ignore my instinct and it proved to be true, then I'll be kicking myself all up and down the forum.

[Lalaith]

As luck would have it, I was able to get on again this morning before I leave.
I voted right out because
a. I didn't think I'd get another chance (see T-i-G thread)
b. we HAVE to get this right today, and I didn't want the wolves to start yet another fruitless bandwaggon.

The wolves can afford to lose one, at this point. Lalaith and Eomer have lately been gaining lost of suspicion, so it's likely one or the other will die. Instead of trying to fight this, they have embraced it and decided that if one must die they will at least make it look very good for the other

This just doesn't stand up, Di. The wolves will win today, in all likelihood. If an innocent is lynched today, we will be down to four/three. The wolves kill another toNIght, and bingo, wolf victory.

Why on earth would the EW pick me to be a wolf?

Because she had a LOT of picks, and you'd survived a long time already when she picked you. I'm not saying she would have picked you right off, I think you were turned quite near the end.

I haven't been going for Eomer for "days." Just yesterDay and today, and I think The reason I'm gung-ho, btw, is because someone has to be. I get the feeling that there have been very few active innocents left in the last few days.

And btw, innocents - statistically, it is very likely that at least one wolf is disagreeing with me right now about Eomer.

Think about that. And think about who was saved by the Sleepy bandwaggon, and who was saved by the Oddwen bandwaggon.
I'm going now, and won't back until sometime late on the next Day, in the unlikely event that we are all here.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I agree with Jenny that "frustrated" posts can convey innocence...the situation you set up with Lalaith consistantly attacking Eomer is one that I'm going to have to review that thread to look into. If that's the case, Eomer, I certainly feel your pain. If this is the case, it makes Eomer look very innocent, and I doubt it's a good wolf plan to constantly attack another wolf, as it's one that could easily backfire.

Lalaith's last post does bear some consideration. If we don't lynch a werewolf toDay, we will lose. So it's a high-pressure situation.

Unfortunately, I'm going to have to vanish in about three hours, and probably won't be back until the next Day (if there is one). So I'm going to review the thread, do some careful consideration, and wait and see what happens.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Right, hold on just a moment.

First of all, in defence of Lalaith's tactics, I wouldn't say she's been going after me like crazy; but I do think she's being rather narrow-minded and stuck in her ways.

Second, Diamond, I didn't even look at your posts about Lalaith when making my first post today. I knew you were the one villager to really suspect Lalaith but the only point I remembered you making was that Lalaith posts a lot without ever really saying much.

I will post again in a few minutes to show that I am not hopping on any bandwagon. Diamond, you may be the original Lalaith-accuser but you haven't voted for her for a couple of days now. I hardly think that's bandwagon-jumping. I'm not accusing Lalaith of bandwagoning me due to the votes I received earlier in the game, am I?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, that didn't take long. My second post of the game (#80) includes my first direct suspicion.

"If I were a wizard, of any persuasion, I would have chosen Lalaith."

And I repeat it later that day in #151. As you can see, Diamond, while I may never have been as anti-Lalaith as you (and why should I have been with less evidence back in those days?) I have always suspected that she would be cursed by the EW. As I kept saying back in those early days — and why so many of you thought I was the EW because of this I don't know — were I the Evil Wizard, Lalaith would have been the first villager I would have cursed. So even though I think she is instilled with evil, you can see how much of a compliment that is.

Diamond, looking back I see that you called Lalaith 'pleasant and innocent' in #879 (not 'sweet and innocent', which to be honest, are words I use to describe pretty much any female), and I also saw your case against her when voting for her in #922. It doesn't really come that close to what I said about Lalaith earlier today. Could you maybe clarify where my points are similar to yours?

[JennyHallu]

I've thought about it, slept on it (well the mattress anyway but I did) and I really see Lalaith as the most likely wolf out of these two. I really hope I'm right, because I want to have at least a chance for us to win this...

And as soon as I wake my husband up I plan to have a really busy day, so i'm voting now.

++Lalaith

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Eomer's last two posts have pretty much convinced me of his innocence. He's reasonable, smart, and I agree with him--he's not hopping on any bandwaggon by voting for Lalaith...merely following through on a long-standing suspicion. In general, I only see a bandwaggon as happening when someone already has at least three votes to their name.

Because I believe now that Eomer is innocent, I'm going to vote for

++Lalaith

Because I am pretty much positive that one of the Eomer-Lalaith pair is a wolf. And because I'm pretty much positive that Eomer is the innocent one...Either that or they're both wolves and they're pulling a remarkable stunt that shouldn't be able to fly, but somehow is...But I doubt that very much.

I know that wolfing times are very foggy, but I feel like Eomer was under a lot of scrutiny from Morm early on, until he switched to an easier target (namely, me). Of course, Morm may not have yet been a wolf, but who knows. I'm just trying to say that my gut says Eomer is innocent and to watch out for Lalaith.