Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Celuien]

Subjectively, I was disturbed by her yesterday.

Objectively: Here's what she had to day...

54: Vote for SPM in the midst of ninja moves.
94: Says that Panman is interfering with teamwork and says that bandwagoning is not the same thing as team work. Dislikes retracting votes – thinks it causes confusion. Says she might retract her vote for SPM, but would then be accused of vote-retracting-bandwagoning. Suspects Boro for disrupting team work by retracting votes and suggests he may be voting randomly even though he said nothing good comes from day 1 random voting.
99: Tells Boro that non-team players play alone. Says her vote isn’t final.
106: Says the bandwagon is turning on her and that everyone hates day one. Says wolves don’t want to draw attention to themselves, so Tom Bombariffic may be a wolf. Switches vote from SPM to Tom.

Assessment: Appears to flip flop regarding retracting votes - starting against them because they cause confusion and then switching herself. Strong emphasis on teamplaying, which is both good and bad. Good in that the village does need to work together to catch the wolves. Bad in that it seems to cast suspicion on those who want to debate, which the village also has to do to catch wolves. Also bad because a wolf trying to sway the village wouldn't want disagreement either. But very, very attention getting moves for a wolf on day one. And so, very risky. Most likely something a wolf would not want to do unless a bold bluffer, which Durelin could be. She feels more innocent in her last post, but still has some odd things about her.

Plan: I still want to keep an eye on Durelin.

[Durelin]

*emerges from the mists*

Just checking in.

I hated retracting my vote, believe me. I don't like flip-flopping. But just as a number of people did, I popped in with a vote, caught up in the excitement. I suppose that is due to me being late.

Unfortunately, I'm afraid I don't have the time right now to do any detailed analyses.

So we'll have to make do with...

Originally Posted by SPM

Obviously, he did not want to explain his plans precisely, since that would only have alerted the Wolves to what he was trying to achieve.

Yes, now it's obvious. The problem with retracting votes is that flip-flopping adds to confusion, and that's not always good. Wolves like to do that, though not overtly. Now...is retracting votes overt or not? That I'm not sure of. I suppose it was for Boro, knowing what we do now.

Sorry, but for now, I'm off to ninja in the night...

EDIT: Of course, I cross-posted with two people...

[Durelin]

(Ah, one last word because I can't help it.)

^^Enough with the retractable votes thing, I know...

[The Saucepan Man]

YesterDay he seemed careful; he only went so far as to call my behavior "interesting" and the like. Meanwhile, a lot of other villagers, probably innocent, began to more vocally accuse me, showing the wolves that I'm a safe target for them. ToDay I'm on SpM's Decidedly Wolvish list.

My suspicions lay elsewhere until I reviewed the events of yesterday. I had already left the village square before your flip-flopping began, so there was little reason for me to consider you particularly suspicious before. It was precisely that flip-flopping and the apparent care which you were taking in placing your vote which led to a number of people beginning to suspect you towards the end of the Day and which prompted my suspicions overnight.

Interesting that you should seize on my comments when TGWBS was the first to voice suspicion of you today.

Originally Posted by Durelin

The problem with retracting votes is that flip-flopping adds to confusion, and that's not always good. Wolves like to do that, though not overtly.

It seems to me that, all else being equal, Wolves are less likely than innocents to switch votes, as they leave less of a trail by voting only once. Especially on Day 1 when their main objective will be to avoid any major suspicion. And most especially yesterday, when I suspect that none of their number were ever in any serious danger.

[Celuien]

23: Joking suspicions Nogrod. LMP, SPM and Feanor are listed as three interesting and straightforward people.
24: Jokingly votes for me because I’m a ketchup grower. (Ketchup is a healthy vegetable! For shame! )
51: Retracts vote for me and votes SPM for his instructions to the Changeling.
78: Says that there wasn’t much to go on in her vote for SPM but didn’t want to leave a silly vote for me standing. Voted for SPM in case she couldn’t get back to change her vote, but thinks it would be a shame to lose him since he’s valuable when innocent. Says Boro is confusing, but probably just having fun with day one. Suspicious of under the radar type spawn, morm and LMP.
87: Dislikes day one because of personality adjustments. Says she doesn’t see her SPM vote as bandwagoning and is voting based on honest suspicion.
89: Points out never having played with retractable votes before. Is second guessing herself, thinks it’s nerve wracking.
98: Doesn’t think bandwagons are as suspicious as some people might believe. Says she’s suspicious whether she stands by her vote or not.
101: Suspcious of everyone. Thinks SPM lynching would be hasty now, only voted for him because she thought he’d be safe (!), switches to Durelin for ‘random postings without much substance.’

A few alarming things. Repeatedly says that she found SPM suspicious and voted for him as a result, then also says that it would be a shame to lose a valuable innocent, then says she only voted for him because she thought he'd be safe and never garner enough votes for lynching!

That last bit is classic lupine strategy. Cast a throwaway vote, and you'll never come under fire for lynching an innocent. And it seems that she's covering all approaches to her vote. Fishy.

Adding her to my watch list.

[Caranlondien]

Well, I started to make a list of all the villagers and my impression of them so far, but most of them were turning out to be "I won't know what to think until they've talked some more". So it seems better to do my usual disorganized, thinking aloud type of post...

As for toDay, SpM's latest post (#128, just in case I cross-post with him) seems reasonable, which is frustrating, as I'm finding it hard to single out any other suspects, aside from my general paranoia. YesterDay the other person I found most suspicious was Durelin, whose post (well technically posts) toDay seems innocent enough.

One thing that struck me is that Lommy seemed more aggressive than usual yesterDay. I'll be especially interested to hear more from her toDay. (Though my ancestors have a history of wrongfully suspecting her ancestors )

I was also struck by LMP's quietness. However, I believe someone mentioned RL issues, which might explain that. morm seemed unusually quiet, too.

A few have struck me as particularly innocent-looking, but I don't think I'll help the wolves by singling them out

EDIT: Cross-posted with Celuien

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

However, I believe someone mentioned RL issues, which might explain that.

That would have been me. I'm not positive about what's happening now, but I know LMP was busy recently, so I put it out as a suggestion for fairness' sake. He'll have to be the one to say definitively.