Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Findëasëa]

I find all of these early votes for Caran interesting. YesterDay she was jumpy and flip-floppy, but it seemed to me like she was genuinely busy in the RL. Form was killed right after being the only one to vote for her. If she is a werewolf this would draw more attention to her, and she already had come under suspicion as of last night. The wolves could be pulling a double bluff, but at this stage of the game, why risk it?

Something is not right about all of the suspicion of Caran. My ancestor was in a village when one of her ancestors was a wolf, she did not act like she is acting now, instead she was the last wolf to die. She managed this by playing the helpful villager and flying under the radar. She might just be making a lot of mistakes, but my knowledge of Caran's playing style leads me to believe she would be a lot more careful about who she accused were she a wolf. Frankly, I did not follow her reasoning to vote to lynch SPM. It seemed like she was trying really hard to find a flaw. I don’t think that the wolves would take such a shaky path so early just to get SPM out of the picture. I think that we need to look at some of the more ‘safe’ looking people as wolves toDay.

X- posted with Caran and SPM
edit- typo

[littlemanpoet]

I see your point, Findëasëa.

So..... posting frequency:

The Saucepan Man 20
Caranlondien 11
Celuien 10
Thinlómien 9
Mithalwen 8
Kath 8
Findëasëa 8
the guy who be short 8
Cailín 7
Durelin 6
Feanor of the Peredhil 5
dancing spawn of ungoliant 5
Nogrod 7 (4 if you discount his after-Day One rampage)
littlemanpoet 4
mormegil 3
Lhunardawen 3
Nilpaurion Felagund 2
tom bombariffic 2

I'm not claiming that this tells us a WHOLE lot, only who may be trying to fly under the radar early. Nogrod has called undue attention to himself, as have Caranlondien and Durelin. My take on that is likely innocence. If this seems like a flip-flop to some of you, so be it: I reserve the right to change my mind based on new thoughts presented by intelligent co-players.

So I'm still suspicious of Spawn

Originally Posted by Saucy

I am surprised that spawn was caught up in the shoddy reasoning that led to him being lynched.

Originally Posted by Guy

spawn, in a very long post, casually remarked that she thought Form was being more defensive than usual.

Originally Posted by Saucy

Tom, Lommy, spawn and Fin voted for Boro yesterday.

I hunch that one of the werewolves may have voted for Boro.


Therefore:

-- Caranlondien

++ Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

[Findëasëa]

Although posting frequency is something that we should examine, I think that there is a difference between volume and substance. The acting pattern that I find most suspicious at this time is that of the falsely helpful villager. The actions of someone who would fit into this pattern posts little of substance, instead choosing to leach off of others arguments while doing little theorizing. So instead of a contribution they might offer more of a commentary. I am going to look back to try to identify people who might fit into this category.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Fascinating reading material that you've all given me.

Based on vibes (cut me slack, I'm tired after packing my entire room up and moving home in one 103* afternoon while also stressing over the coming weekend and trying to finish rewrites), I'm currently leaning toward the innocence of Saucie and LMP. Those vibes are subject to change at any time, but right now I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and given that I'm leaning toward Spam's innocence, I'm also leaning toward listening to his opinions with more than a "he's probably a wolf so I'm going to ignore him."

I'm reserving my thoughts on Form's death and the Caran Bandwagon until after I've had some sleep.

[Thinlómien]

morm really worries me. Yesterday he posted twice, both posts only a few lines. He explained he had a lot of work, so I let it be. Today, however, when I came to check how our village is doing, I find one post from morm, only a few lines echoing things that have been said and adding one vote to a bandwagon. I find this very odd. This is not his usual playing style. Usually he discusses and gives theories and ends up with quarreling with somebody. (No offense, morm.) If I could imagine morm trying to fly under radar it'd be this, but this would be a stupid move from wolf-morm since it gathers attention. Furthermore, I've seen a wolf-morm and he played his normal way. So I have no idea what to make of this (expect that morm's busy and he just doesn't mention it on the TiG-thread ). I will keep my eyes on this weird creature (). And morm, I'd be glad if you cared to explain.

Caran looks pretty bad now, but I hesitate to make her my suspect before I've reread through her posts myself. I think I might only be influenced by the public opinion.

[Cailín]

A lot of early suspicion and even some bandwagoning, I see. Now I may be wrong, but Caranlondien personally does not strike me as decidedly wolvish. I will have to review her posts again myself - as Lommy said, tis easy to be swayed by public opinion - yet she seems too forward and too genuine to be a wolf. My lorebooks say nothing on Caran as a fanged one, I think, but I'd say she'd be a more flying under radar type. So for now, I must agree with Fin.

The death of Boromir surprised and disappointed me greatly. His innocence was pretty obvious to me. Of course, I voted for an innocent too..

Originally Posted by TGWBAsh

I find this very suspicious and wouldn't put it past both of them being wolves. I would like to hear why Cailin suddenly changed her mind. Spawn, meanwhile, appears to be very influential in her summary posts.

Well, I am not denying Spawn is not very influential, but my reasoning was as follows: there was no one I was really suspicious of, as I clearly stated before. So in traditional Day 1 style, I was grasping at straws. Secondly, I really had expected more contribution from Formendacil later on, and he did post more, but only after I had already left. And thirdly, I was trying to be 'fair'. A lot of time, people are exempt from Day 1 votes based on their reputation (oh - they'll be more helpful later on), which might not be the right way to go about this. Now I admit that's a bit shoddy, but frankly, I couldn't come up with a more decent case.

Form as an innocent dying does not surprise me. Probably the "be more helpful later on" thing combined with leaving the tiniest trail as possible.

As to Saucepan Man… I am inclined to trust him, still, but I acknowledge that we cannot blindly assume his innocence. That is why -in his case- I rely on the Seer / Changeling dreaming / becoming him. It sounds a little paranoid, but he's just too good to neglect.

I also agree - to an extent - with Lommy's thoughts on Morm.

I'm going to review Spawn's, Caran's and Fin's posts. Be back later.

[Lhunardawen]

I know I'm not the tragedienne, but I'm almost tempted to keel over and die with the wanderer, with whom I feel a bit of connection - we're both lost...sort of. Yet maybe I can help with finding and destroying the fiends who did this before I do.

So. Boromir's lynching yesterDay is really odd...reminds me of a certain Gurthang from a village of old: he died for presenting a possible strategy without really presenting it, if you know what I mean. Why can't we all learn that when people do this they're usually innocent? Just usually, mind.

Anyways, I mostly agree with SpM's analysis of the Boromir-voters. Right now I'm not yet suspicious of dancing spawn - the mere thought of her being a wolf makes me shudder. However with the usual mayhem of Day Ones I doubt the wolves would actually contribute to an innocent's death, so here ends my thoughts on Boromir's lynching.

Now, on to last Night's kill choice *wipes away tear*. The easiest explanation so far as I can see is that he left no trails yesterDay. And of course, it will confuse us. I think a double bluff from Caran is too far-fetched a theory; I'm more ready to believe that at least one of his voters - Elempi, SpM, or Cailín - is lupine. But even that is not enough basis to suspect them much.

I know how hard it is to read lengthy posts so I'll post my own suspicions separately, after I have time to organize my thoughts. Sort of.

[Lhunardawen]

Lommy got there before I did: yes, I find morm...unsettling. It doesn't seem to be him. So with Elempi. I find it hard to believe that he will jump to vote just like that. Maybe there's RL to blame for both of them, or they're trying a different playing style, or they're gauging reactions, or they're executing what Boromir insisted yesterDay as a way of using retractable votes to catch wolves. But I'm sure it's safe to say that this is odd behavior for them.

A case has also been made against Kakashi...I mean Durelin. Elempi said in her defense that she is capable of recklessness, but that's exactly the kind of reasoning that lets us ignore the bold wolves.

Finally, this probably makes no sense but I'm a bit wary of Fea. Randomness is always scary.

[Cailín]

Looking back, I cannot find the post TGWBS was referring to, which could have swayed me. That's a relief.

Spawn looks less wolvish to me after reviewing what she has said. Her vote for Boromir is a bit odd and something I don't agree with, but she also expressed suspicion of Formendacil. I would think Spawn the Wolf a little more subtle than having her main Day 1 suspects both killed off immediately, if you get what I mean.

Caranlondien was acting a little flip-floppy yesterDay. If she's a wolf, she is a decidedly lot braver than I guessed she would be (no offence meant, of course, Caran strikes me as the careful wolf type). She accused almost all the 'big names' which is quite a daring strategy.

I think a double bluff from Caran is too far-fetched a theory; I'm more ready to believe that at least one of his voters - Elempi, SpM, or Cailín - is lupine. But even that is not enough basis to suspect them much.

I agree and I don't.

I personally think the (majority of) wolves are among those people who mentioned Formendacil little if at all.

[Lhunardawen]

I forgot to add that though I'm uncomfortable with Fea's randomness, I count her unwillingness to use the retract votes function in her favor. So that's my opinion for everyone to see: I've never played with them before, but I will not retract my votes if I can help it, and I shall keep an eye on those who do it a lot.

Time to give in to timezones. We really need a doctor in these parts.

Hoom, hoom.

++DURELIN

I wouldn't put it past her to be a bold wolf.

Good Day, everyone.

[tom bombariffic]

Just checking in before I begin my morning's analysis of day 1 key players.

I'll be around more today than on day 1, which is good news (hopefully). As far as what has already been said goes, I'm certainly slightly swayed by this caranlondian suspicion. I think morm's emphasis on her over-reaction (lmp may have said this too) is a key point, and one that strikes me as very odd. I'm witholding judgement for now but I've got my better eye on you, Caran...

Having said this, I'm also suspicious of morm. This issue had been alluded to, most substantially by thinlomien, but never really discussed. I'm just very aware that morm's most recent ancestor was a wolf, who was very successful because he kept playing exactly like his ancestors. To behave the same again would cause suspicion, and so perhaps he felt that a change in style, becoming less dominant, may help him slip through the net. I'll be interested to see how he acts today.

I'll be back shortly having looked back properly at day 1.

bombariffic