Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[littlemanpoet]

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up. SPM, however, his ancestors were out early in the last great tide of evil, and so he's raring to go. As to different playing style, I refer you to the fact that votes are retractable, and therefore, why not? Puts a little pressure on those suspected. Seems appropriate to use the device if it's there to be used. That's all for now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

As to Saucepan Man… I am inclined to trust him, still, but I acknowledge that we cannot blindly assume his innocence. That is why -in his case- I rely on the Seer / Changeling dreaming / becoming him.

With all these warm, fuzzy vibes I seem to be getting at the moment, it’s quite possible that the Wolves will remove me from the equation overnight. Come on people, I want some suspicion!

Originally Posted by Fin

The actions of someone who would fit into this pattern posts little of substance, instead choosing to leach off of others arguments while doing little theorizing.

I agree that this would have been the Wolfish strategy yesterday, when there was little sense in the Wolves taking risks. Today, they might be a little more influential in an attempt to sway the village, particularly if one of their number is in the firing line. Those who seemed to me yesterday to fall into the pattern described by Fin are Mith, Elempi, morm, TGWBS and Caran.

I am still wary of Caran. I take the point that she has been less careful than we might expect from a Wolfish Caran and that she is not the type to go for the bluff of killing the one who voted for her. On the latter point, though, she would be one of three Wolves and she has acknowledged that she is easily swayed. Today, she has spent a fair bit of energy defending herself, but that could go either way. I also remain doubtful that a Wolf would openly have admitted trying to place a safe vote. If she is innocent, then there may indeed be something malign behind the quick votes for her today, following the suspicions initially raised by TGWBS and me – especially on Elempi’s part, given the speed with which he changed his vote following some points raised in Caran’s favour.

I also remain wary of Lommy, since she seemed to be the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday. Plus, on reviewing what she said, she did get rather tangled up and flustered in the retractable votes and Day 1 debates yesterday, when pressed by Boro and me.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #33

Retractable votes create confusion. There are lots of early votes thrown around... I understand people just want to stir the discussion a bit, or have fun, but wouldn't that make a perfect cover for a wolf? Especially when there's plenty of these random votes around...

Negative and unhelpful.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #33

... the prevailing conditions being retractable votes and Day 1, I really can't say anything, except that whoever the wolves are it's easy to hide for them toDay.

Again, unhelpful.

Originally Posted by Lommy@ #41

I didn't say retractables are not a benefit to the village, because they are, in some situations. I just don't like people toying with them.

She may not have said retractable votes were of no benefit to the village but, in labelling them confusing and as providing cover for Wolves, she was pretty much saying that they are of gereater benefit to the Wolves than to the village.

Originally Posted by Lommy @ #71

So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.

This was her objection to my suggestion that she was anti-Day 1s. But my point was that sitting and railing about how awful Day 1s are and doing little else is entirely unhelpful. As Boro noted at the time, disliking Day 1s on Day 1 falls into that category. This is also the post where she seized upon Tom’s point about Boro being suspicious for not explaining what he was doing with his votes, essentially the argument which led to Boro being lynched.

In Lommy’s favour, I am still doubtful that any of the Wolves would have felt the need to vote for Boro yesterday. However, when she voted, it was by no means certain that his neck would end up in the noose. Perhaps, having pursued him with such vigour, she felt that voting for him was less risky than switching suspicions. Her other main suspect, I believe, was me, and I was looking to be in some danger at the time she voted.

Originally Posted by Lommy

morm really worries me. Yesterday he posted twice, both posts only a few lines. He explained he had a lot of work, so I let it be. Today, however, when I came to check how our village is doing, I find one post from morm, only a few lines echoing things that have been said and adding one vote to a bandwagon. I find this very odd. This is not his usual playing style.

Agreed. I would be surprised if a Wolfish morm chose to adopt such an uncharacteristic approach. But it may be that it has been forced upon him by circumstances. Not enough to arouse major suspicion, but I’ll be keeping my eye on him.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Finally, this probably makes no sense but I'm a bit wary of Fea. Randomness is always scary.

No, it makes perfect sense. She can be a tricksy one, that Fea. I am still concerned over the way she was so keen to stomp on the mild suspicions expressed about her early on yesterday. It was, as I recall, her main contribution to the debate yesterday. I also don’t like her last minute vote for me. With only Fin and Nogrod to vote, and with Nogrod having made clear that I was not high in his suspicions, there was little chance that I would be lynched at that point, so it was a fairly safe “throwaway” vote. She certainly remains high in my suspicions.

Finally, as to Durelin, I wouldn’t put it past her to be a bold Wolf either, but her behaviour yesterday was unduly reckless for a Wolf on Day1.

[tom bombariffic]

In looking over sauce's actions, It hit me just how little morm has participated - I knew he's only posted a little, but it's all been very low on content as well.

I take lmp's point about werewolf fatigue - but that's no reason not to explain your votes. I know it would be silly for him to change his playing style so drastically - but this may be the perfect bluff. Also, as I've already suggested, he may have felt that he had to after his immediate ancestor's success.

I'll be watching to see if he posts later in the day.

bombariffic

[The Saucepan Man]

Nice analysis, Tom.

A few points:

Fea didn't persuade me not to vote for her. My early vote for her was, in part, a ruse and was never intended necessarily to stand. Even though it did provoke a reaction, I was concerned that I might be reading too much into it, influenced by the fact that I always find Fea suspicious. I didn't like Form's Day 1 attitude and thought he looked more suspicious than her at the time, so switched my vote. Fea remains very much in my thoughts, though.

With regard to your Boro vote, it looked to me at the time to be a rather makeshift argument to get you in the village consciousness without attracting too much attention, and I did not agree with it. But I accept that there was little to go on at the time. Your contributions today have been impressive, and I am feeling pretty comfortable about you at the moment.

As for me taking control, well I do like to get my thoughts and arguments across and sometimes I do so aggressively. If I think someone is suspicious, I generally like to outline my reasoning as best I can. It's the advocate in me. My ancestors have been accused of trying to take control and influence the village. To an extent, that's kind of the point of the game (at least the way I play it). But no one should simply accept anyone else's arguments, theories or reasoning without considering them and making up their own mind. And there are some pretty strong-willed villagers in this particular village, so I am not sure that there is much of a danger of any one preson taking too much control.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up.

A good point I didn't think about. But according to my experiences, this weariness usually occurs only with ordos. So should we conclude morm's most probably innocent? Or could he bluff here? I'm waiting for an explanation, whatever the case is.

Originally Posted by Saucie

I also remain wary of Lommy, since she seemed to be the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday.

What do you mean by "the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday"? That it was mainly my fault he got lynched?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up. SPM, however, his ancestors were out early in the last great tide of evil, and so he's raring to go. As to different playing style, I refer you to the fact that votes are retractable, and therefore, why not? Puts a little pressure on those suspected. Seems appropriate to use the device if it's there to be used. That's all for now.

I'm doing my morning catch up and have to say that I agree 100% with this one. I wish I could give you a big hug right now LMP because this is exactly how I feel. Thinlo, perhaps I don't wish to use the town notice board to explain an absence of a couple of hours as everybody else seems so set on. I never mind a bit of suspicion about me but Thinlo your desire to grasp at any straw that might be moderately suspicious is in itself rather suspicious to me. If memory serves me well you did this yesterday with Boromir. I haven't had a lot of time to reread the thread and garner suspicions yet but one thing that sticks out to me is you and your desire to twist and turn everything said and done. Your interaction with SpM yesterday shocked me at how you would twist his words and weren't willing to understand what he was saying.

My current top suspects today are
Caran
Thinlo
TGWBS

Oh and just so nobody, Thinlo and others, freak out I've been told that there is a 'butchers' conference today and I will be in attendance. However this lets out at the same time as the village ends voting so I won't be back until tomorrow, if I'm alive.

[Mithalwen]

Am reading now and then - not able to really post yet.. sorry.... Bad RL day. As soon as I can you will get my full attention.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I never mind a bit of suspicion about me but Thinlo your desire to grasp at any straw that might be moderately suspicious is in itself rather suspicious to me. If memory serves me well you did this yesterday with Boromir.

Grasp any straw that might be moderately suspicious? Morm, have you ever heard that you have to suspect somebody in ww since not everyone is innocent? Good heavens, I have to vote somebody. And I think it's better to vote someone you suspect a little bit than throw a random vote. Anyway, I understand that it's a matter of opinion, so...

Originally Posted by morm

...one thing that sticks out to me is you and your desire to twist and turn everything said and done. Your interaction with SpM yesterday shocked me at how you would twist his words and weren't willing to understand what he was saying.

Well, I didn't quite get some of his points. Maybe I'm stupid. Or maybe he can't explain so that I can understand. If I twisted his words, like you said, it was unintentional. If you want to show me the passages I did so in your opinion I'm only glad to explain/correct you or admit my mistake, if I've misunderstood something. For I can't know what passages you mean. And if I was aggressive towards SPM yesterday, it was because I suspected him because I felt he twisted my words, and other people's as well.

but she seems a bit edgier than usual.

Maybe I'm finally taking after my dad and his well-known aggressiveness...

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by SpM

Actually, that was addressed to Caran.

Oh. Now I look stupid. Thank you.

Originally Posted by Cailin

And a quick question: Mormegil and Spawn voice suspicion of TGWBS and I'd like to know their reasoning behind this, because either I missed or there never was a case against him...

I didn't notice her Spawniness, but the Monkey Man seems rather reluctant to voice his worries whilst maintaining me on his likely to be lupine list.

As for SpM-Boro. That could just be a clever SpM. To be honest, I've resigned myself to not knowing what SpM is and largely ignoring him in my analyses. He's too tricksey.


In other news, I saw a Pinsir today, which was rather exciting as they are quite rare. Malheureusement, it fainted afore I could catch it.

Pokemon! Attrapez-les tous!

What? No in-character posts after day one? Are you all completely barking?
Like Growlithe? This is far too much fun to give up.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Ooh, Saucie's thinking about me. It's okay, I'm used to guys thinking about me. Just no wolf-whistles, 'k love?

Seriously, though... TGWBS is currently my biggest interest.

[tom bombariffic]

I've rather abandoned my big-players conspiracy having talked myself into believing SpM, and unexpected RL issues took up my morning, which I planned to spend looking at one or two others.

I have to be off in about half an hour, and will probably be voting for Caranlondien or Spawn. I'm going back now to quickly look back over their activity, may not have time to make a long analysis like I did with Sauce but will do my best.

bombariffic

[Thinlómien]

A lot of people are voicing suspicions of TGWBS and I can clearly see why. Relying to my lorebooks I hesitate to take sides though I'm a bit suspicious of him, since my lorebooks tell of me being quite confident of his wolvishness and contributing to his death only to find out he was an innocent. He can be quite baffling.

Morm is still think suspicious, since he has been mostly nonsense toDay as well, his latest post only naming three suspects without explanations except his counter-attack on me.

I read through Cara's posts as I said I would, and I found out that she mostly speaks nonsense (sorry, ex-sis), voices suspicions (but mainly old ones) and the only interesting point she makes is that the Changeling would probably try to take the Evil side, instead of taking the safer path.

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

...as the Changeling would likely take it as a challenge to do the more difficult thing... Who among us would read that and think, "Okay, I'll take the easy option"? No, we all want grand tales to tell at the end. And I think this Changeling is a threat because of this ego factor.

Maybe. We can't know before we know who the Changeling is. When I reread this I started to wonder if it's a wolf we see here, trying to sway the Changeling to play for the evil side...? I would also like to add the point that I wouldn't be surprised to find Cara a bold wolf.

Fea I found most baffling. She's slippy. I don't know what to make of her. She certainly needs to be watched.

Mith worries me too. She's posts pretty much, but she's quite insubstantial. Of this, if of something, could be used Sauce's term "maintaining a presence".

LMP is too a lot more nonsense than usually. I'm gradually getting more worried of him.

Someone pointed an interesting point on Cailín and her being swayed by spawn rather flip-floppily (don't say I'm not the best one to accuse anyone of flip-floppery, but I mean that whereas I tend to flip-flop, Cailín doesn't). Also, it seemed that she started to make sense after there had been worried remarks on her behaviour.

Fin feels quite innocent right now, but I'd like to mention her in this post since I have the feeling that she will fly under the radar and if she's a wolf that's a very bad thing.

Now, I see that's about half the village, if not even more. So maybe this could be of use, to arrange my thoughts and let you be aware of them:

Order of suspiciousness
Morm/Cara
LMP
Cailín/Mith
TGWBS
Fea
Fin

EDIT: xed with spawn, bomba and guy

[Nogrod]

Just reporting in...

Sorry about toDay so far, but I've been at work for the last 13 hours (and still have some 30+ essays to read tonight)! But now I need something completely different for a while.

I'll just check the thread and join you then.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Elempi

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up.

Originally Posted by morm

I'm doing my morning catch up and have to say that I agree 100% with this one. I wish I could give you a big hug right now LMP because this is exactly how I feel.

What is this werewolf weariness rubbish? A man who is weary of Werewolf is weary of life!

But seriously, if you cannot find the energy to commit, you should not be in this village. Personally, even if I am weary, I cannot resist rabbiting on at length whenever I come to the village square. I generally find so much to talk about and comment on that I am almost compelled to pipe up. And morm and Elempi are usually the same. I don’t buy this werewolf fatigue thing and I am beginning to wonder if it is a tactic. Then again, they would be foolish Wolves indeed if they were both to use the same excuse for their quietitude.

Originally Posted by Lommy

What do you mean by "the main protagonist behind the briefings against Boro yesterday"? That it was mainly my fault he got lynched?

Frankly, yes. As I see it, you got into a tussle with him and so found yourself arguing against him. Then, when grounds for suspicion of him were aired, you seized on and promulgated them. Those grounds formed the main plank of the argument against him. It does not follow, of course, that you are guilty. You may just have been a misguided innocent. But, as I said, I am wary of you.

Originally Posted by spawn

Sauce still seems different from his usual self …

This seems to be said about me by someone in every village I inhabit. And they never seem to explain exactly what they mean by it.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Saucie decidedly defended Boro, and Boro turns out innocent. Isn't it possible that this was set up so that Sauce turned out looking good?

Ah yes. I wondered how long it would be before this came up. I actually indicated my belief in Boro’s likely innocence a long time before he became a serious lynch candidate and was very surprised when he ended up being lynched. Fact is, he never looked particularly guilty to me, quite the contrary, and the arguments against him always looked rather spurious. Those responsible for promulgating them are either malign or they were misguided. Besides, if I was a Wolf and had decided to align myself with an innocent Boro, I would have wanted him to stick around a lot longer than he did.

Originally Posted by Elempi

Spawn's rather diatribic reaction to my (retractable) vote for her leaves me more dubious regarding her than before. She doth protest too much, methinks.

You think so? I thought that it was a rather reasonable response. It is understandable for someone to expect some reasoning when a vote is cast for them.

Originally Posted by Cailín

And a quick question: Mormegil and Spawn voice suspicion of TGWBS and I'd like to know their reasoning behind this, because either I missed or there never was a case against him...

I am slightly uneasy about TGWBS. He contributed very little yesterday and made a “random” vote that could be interpreted as a safe Wolfish vote. And today, despite a promising start, he is failing to live up to his promise. In #154, he said that he could not trust what anyone was saying and would carry out his own analysis and reach his own conclusions. Yet, despite an a lengthy analysis of Boro’s death (#156), he seems to have come up with little to show for it so far.

My main thoughts remain with Fea, though. And no, Fea, they are not wolf-whistly thoughts (in either sense), but similar to the thoughts that might run through the mind of a mouse when eyeing up a particularly hungry cat. Has Fea actually made any contribution to this village other than reacting to some mild suspicion on Day 1 and casting an unreasoned (and safe-looking) vote for me? Because, if she has, I have not noticed it. Busy elsewhere she may be, but she still manages to pop in every so often without ever actually saying anything that might help us in catching the Wolves. She hasn’t even tried messing with our minds very much, which is unusual for her. Now she’s interested in TGWBS, but doesn’t say why. She’s unnerving and unhelpful, so I am going to revert to my original gut feeling on this.

+ + FEANOR OF THE PEREDHIL

Edit: Cross-posted with some of TGWBS's "Death of Boro" conclusions, so he has at least come up with something now in consequence of his early analysis.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

LMP is too a lot more nonsense than usually. I'm gradually getting more worried of him.

Care to explain what you mean? This is awfully vague, which is in its turn rather suspicious, although, Lommy, I suppose you tend to be vague, so maybe this is just you theorizing out loud. Either way, I'd appreciate it if you would do me the courtesy of explaining what "nonsense" you're talking about? Thanks.

Originally Posted by SPM

I cannot resist rabbiting on at length whenever I come to the village square. I generally find so much to talk about and comment on that I am almost compelled to pipe up. And morm and Elempi are usually the same. I don’t buy this werewolf fatigue thing and I am beginning to wonder if it is a tactic. Then again, they would be foolish Wolves indeed if they were both to use the same excuse for their quietitude.

This is precisely the kind of bold in-your-face wolvish statement I've been waiting for from you, SPM. The lorebooks show that such a disregard for your fellow innocent villagers' state of mind was precisely the key that showed your ancestor's wolvishness. Nobody at that time saw it for what it was until too late. I am making sure nobody misses it this time. Thank you for slipping up in this fashion. I challenge you to vindicate yourself. But you are slippery, sir. Perhaps the only sufficient vindication may be your lynching or the seer declaring you innocent, since your very efforts to clear yourself will most likely be so full of loyerly misdirection and logic chopping that you persuade people against their better judgment that you are not the werewolf I strongly suspect you to be.

Originally Posted by SPM

You think so? I thought that it was a rather reasonable response. It is understandable for someone to expect some reasoning when a vote is cast for them.

Yes, I thought so. I gave reasons. Since you, my dear sir, are exploding with vim and vigor, feel free to do the research.

Originally Posted by tom

[Morm] took the trouble to come in and catch up reading, but then listed 3 votes without saying why.

You obviously don't know how Morm plays this game. This is his typical means of checking out the three named. He was looking for reactions. It doesn't mean he's guilty. Nor innocent. I suppose this looks like me defending Morm. Heck, I like the guy. He did want to give me a hug, after all. (here's bear-hug for ya morm) But facts are facts, and it's a shame for someone to waste a lynch vote on not knowing what's going on.

Originally Posted by Feanor

I'm very intentionally playing the role of a quiet villager. Or at least trying to do so. Let me do it in peace and I might be able to help you.

This seems for real to me.

SPM's aggressive response to the same quote I just posted, is noted. An aggressive SPM is a typical SPM. An aggressive, wolvish SPM is the kind who will pick a few likely villagers who he is rather sure he can turn into scapegoats, and ride them for all they're worth, making sure not to allow them to get lynched and proven innocent until it's well along in the game and they have served their purpose. So watch whom he attacks and rides mercilessly. And I would suggest that if you are really unwise enough to keep him around, then please do lynch his victims and once you see that they are innocent, you'll have a stronger indication that SPM is a werewolf.

That said:

-- DANCING SPAWN OF UNGOLIANT

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

I'll post this up in hopes that it might be helpful to others before it's too late.