Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

tom bombariffic · 06-05-2006, 11:15 AM

Hi all,

Just the one post and vote for me today I'd imagine - it's been a titanic monday for us tree surgeons. May be able to get back for one more post in an hour or so, but lots to do in between, so apologies for my knock-and-run appearance today.

Fea. I don't know what happened...when reading through I, like everyone else, assumed her to be the changeling. She clearly had a plan in mind, but I honestly think it was simply to rid the village of its most useless player. She was extremely earnest, but I think she felt that she had to be to combat the village's opposition to her suicide. I can only assume that she thought the other lynching candidates were innocent, and saw herself as a sacrificial lamb. Morm's point about her having to drop out anyway and thus saving a life is also a possibility. As I said...just don't know.

So why is she still here? I see three possibilities (in no particular order):
1) That fin's suspicions were so threatening, she HAD to be killed immediately.
2) That they worried that the ranger would protect her/she would hunt them
3) That they want to leave her until she starts to gather suspicion for still being alive.

----

General consent seems to be that the second is the most likely option. Her vote (and thus her main suspicion) yesterday was for TGWBS, who seems to have gained the village's trust today. I remain uncertain; I suspect him less than yesterday, because his posts seem genuine and he has more concrete arguments behind his points today than perviously, for example that we should explore the darker corners of the village (even if that includes me!). I still do not fully trust him, mostly because I disagree with his actual ideas, for example the one I just cited. I think that to simply trust vocal villagers because recently dead vocal villagers were innocent is foolhardy, and could lead to us trusting a strong wolf, who will lead us astray - we all know from neighbouring villages how much damage a strong wolf that everyone trusts can do. This is NOT to say that quiet villagers should not be investigated as well; I imagine that the wolves will play with as varied styles as possible, and probably consist of at least one loud and at least one quiet villager. But to ignore the vocal villagers is foolish, in my opinion. In conclusion: I trust TGWBS's earnestness and something about his language makes me think he believes what he is saying, but I'm still wary of him because I don't agree with what he says, and fear that if my judging of his earnestness is wrong, he could do a lot of damage.

---

I fear Durelin. I smell a rat. Having noticed how strongly she defended herself yesterday, my attention was more focused on her today, and so perhaps I am looking for suspicious signs, but I do not trust her suggestions to be genuine. In post 443, she suggests that we should uncover the changeling. Her reasoning is poor and she admits at the end that it may just be a way for the wolves to cause more confusion by being dishonest, but then why did she post the message, and not simply remove the suggestion? I suspect that perhaps she wanted someone else to take up her argument and eventually to reveal the changeling, who of course she (if she is a wolf) could then kill.

She has also toned down her defensiveness from yesterday, but seems to still protest her innocence too readily, using smilies to soften the blow. I simply don't trust someone who feels the need to question everything that goes against them: suspicion is part and parcel of the game, and unless it is a serious and threatening accusation, most people would choose to leave it.

----

I have to go; I've just looked over morm, lommy and celuien's posts from today, but I have no time for lengthly analysis I'm afraid: I'll give it in brief:

MORM seems the same to me as yesterday. He has become no more suspicious, whilst in my mind Durelin has skyrocketed for the reasons above and her hasty vote yesterday, mentioned numerous times by others on the thread.

CELUIEN I have been unsure for a while - I never know what to think of her, whether she is helping expose suspects or getting others' backs up to cause trouble. today she seems trustworthy and intelligent, and for the moment I feel comfortable with her.

LOMMY was a suspect from yesterday who did not grab my attention today, and when I went back and looked over her posts, I saw nothing blatantly wolvish - she remains behind Durelin and Morm in my suspicions.

My vote:

++ Durelin

have to run.

bombariffic

Caranlondien · 06-05-2006, 11:35 AM

I'm afraid once again I'll have to leave the village somewhat early. I'm thinking over my vote....

Sorry, I just can't help updating the voting list 20 times a day:

lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)
tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
Tom => Durelin (Durelin 3, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)

Mithalwen · 06-05-2006, 11:49 AM

Hi I am here again.

Going to have a look at LMP... that SpM fiasco is still bugging me. Also want to try and work out what Fea was playing at. Best guess wiothout reading is that she thought Durelin, who seemed doomed, was innocent. But as an innocent herself she cannot have been certain. So Durelin, again must be examined..although her individual reaction to the Fea situation my count for her.

I als would be surprised, alas, if our Seer and Changeling could tell us much helpful. While there are too many fine players in this game to speculate with certainty who they have picked. I be very surprised if at least a few of our illustrious dead did not figure amongst their choices. Off to read thoroughly..

Caranlondien · 06-05-2006, 11:51 AM

++littlemanpoet

Sorry, lmp, I can't help suspecting you.

lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)
tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
Tom => Durelin (Durelin 3, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
Caran => lmp (Durelin 3, lmp 3, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)

06-05-2006, 11:15 AM	#1
tom bombariffic Wight Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: In the house of Tom Bombariffic Posts: 196	Hi all, Just the one post and vote for me today I'd imagine - it's been a titanic monday for us tree surgeons. May be able to get back for one more post in an hour or so, but lots to do in between, so apologies for my knock-and-run appearance today. Fea. I don't know what happened...when reading through I, like everyone else, assumed her to be the changeling. She clearly had a plan in mind, but I honestly think it was simply to rid the village of its most useless player. She was extremely earnest, but I think she felt that she had to be to combat the village's opposition to her suicide. I can only assume that she thought the other lynching candidates were innocent, and saw herself as a sacrificial lamb. Morm's point about her having to drop out anyway and thus saving a life is also a possibility. As I said...just don't know. So why is she still here? I see three possibilities (in no particular order): 1) That fin's suspicions were so threatening, she HAD to be killed immediately. 2) That they worried that the ranger would protect her/she would hunt them 3) That they want to leave her until she starts to gather suspicion for still being alive. ---- General consent seems to be that the second is the most likely option. Her vote (and thus her main suspicion) yesterday was for TGWBS, who seems to have gained the village's trust today. I remain uncertain; I suspect him less than yesterday, because his posts seem genuine and he has more concrete arguments behind his points today than perviously, for example that we should explore the darker corners of the village (even if that includes me!). I still do not fully trust him, mostly because I disagree with his actual ideas, for example the one I just cited. I think that to simply trust vocal villagers because recently dead vocal villagers were innocent is foolhardy, and could lead to us trusting a strong wolf, who will lead us astray - we all know from neighbouring villages how much damage a strong wolf that everyone trusts can do. This is NOT to say that quiet villagers should not be investigated as well; I imagine that the wolves will play with as varied styles as possible, and probably consist of at least one loud and at least one quiet villager. But to ignore the vocal villagers is foolish, in my opinion. In conclusion: I trust TGWBS's earnestness and something about his language makes me think he believes what he is saying, but I'm still wary of him because I don't agree with what he says, and fear that if my judging of his earnestness is wrong, he could do a lot of damage. --- I fear Durelin. I smell a rat. Having noticed how strongly she defended herself yesterday, my attention was more focused on her today, and so perhaps I am looking for suspicious signs, but I do not trust her suggestions to be genuine. In post 443, she suggests that we should uncover the changeling. Her reasoning is poor and she admits at the end that it may just be a way for the wolves to cause more confusion by being dishonest, but then why did she post the message, and not simply remove the suggestion? I suspect that perhaps she wanted someone else to take up her argument and eventually to reveal the changeling, who of course she (if she is a wolf) could then kill. She has also toned down her defensiveness from yesterday, but seems to still protest her innocence too readily, using smilies to soften the blow. I simply don't trust someone who feels the need to question everything that goes against them: suspicion is part and parcel of the game, and unless it is a serious and threatening accusation, most people would choose to leave it. ---- I have to go; I've just looked over morm, lommy and celuien's posts from today, but I have no time for lengthly analysis I'm afraid: I'll give it in brief: MORM seems the same to me as yesterday. He has become no more suspicious, whilst in my mind Durelin has skyrocketed for the reasons above and her hasty vote yesterday, mentioned numerous times by others on the thread. CELUIEN I have been unsure for a while - I never know what to think of her, whether she is helping expose suspects or getting others' backs up to cause trouble. today she seems trustworthy and intelligent, and for the moment I feel comfortable with her. LOMMY was a suspect from yesterday who did not grab my attention today, and when I went back and looked over her posts, I saw nothing blatantly wolvish - she remains behind Durelin and Morm in my suspicions. My vote: ++ Durelin have to run. bombariffic __________________ The 'hum' generated by an electric car is not in fact the noise of the engine, but that of the driver's self-righteousness oscillating at a high frequency.

06-05-2006, 11:49 AM	#3
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,460	Hi I am here again. Going to have a look at LMP... that SpM fiasco is still bugging me. Also want to try and work out what Fea was playing at. Best guess wiothout reading is that she thought Durelin, who seemed doomed, was innocent. But as an innocent herself she cannot have been certain. So Durelin, again must be examined..although her individual reaction to the Fea situation my count for her. I als would be surprised, alas, if our Seer and Changeling could tell us much helpful. While there are too many fine players in this game to speculate with certainty who they have picked. I be very surprised if at least a few of our illustrious dead did not figure amongst their choices. Off to read thoroughly.. __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

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06-05-2006, 11:35 AM	#2
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	I'm afraid once again I'll have to leave the village somewhat early. I'm thinking over my vote.... Sorry, I just can't help updating the voting list 20 times a day: lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1) Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2) mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1) Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1) tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1) tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1) Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1) tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1) Tom => Durelin (Durelin 3, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)

06-05-2006, 11:51 AM	#4
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	++littlemanpoet Sorry, lmp, I can't help suspecting you. lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1) Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2) mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1) Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1) tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1) tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1) Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1) tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1) Tom => Durelin (Durelin 3, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1) Caran => lmp (Durelin 3, lmp 3, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)