Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Durelin · 06-05-2006, 12:54 PM

The only reason I'm still alive is because the wolves like all the attention I'm drawing away from them. And so they simply need to nudge the village in the direction of lynching me to get rid of me. Which I suppose isn't going to be hard for them, is it?

As TGWBS has pointed out, everyone's been going after the loudmouths. The lynchings have all been of innocents so far. Perhaps it's about time everyone reconsidered the direction their suspicions are headed in.

Innocent:
Caran

Probably Innocent:
Cailin
lmp
morm

Possibly Innocent:
TGWBS
Lommy
Nogrod

Possibly Guilty:
Mith
Lhuna

Probably Guilty:
Celuien
Tom

Now, the votes have LMP and myself tied. But I seriously doubt he is a wolf. His post that seemed to somehow ignite a SPM bandwagon really doesn't work. It could have been well-timed, but why would he have risked drawing the attention away from Caran? And the kind of bandwagon that followed had a lot to do with only Caran's revealing of her role.

Celuien and Tom would be an interesting pair of wolves. They have, in a way, worked together, without actually working together at all. (Today they're both going after me, maybe with reason, but Tom conveniently mentions that he is uncertain about Celuien. That seems to be about the first time he's mentioned Celuien at all in a while, if he ever did.) Yesterday, before the craziness with Fea occured, Tom had voiced suspicions about all three of the top candidates for lynching yesterday: morm, myself, and TGWBS (though of course he was not quite up there with morm and myself). Celuien voices suspicions about all three as well. And who do they end up voting for? Tom for morm, Celuien for me. morm and myself end up tied. Then, Fea jumps in.

Fea's whole routine was because of RL problems and to try and get some reactions. But most importantly, I believe, was a whole other reason.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fea

Celuien: when tomorrow comes, do me a favor if my plan suddenly becomes clear.

I'm trying to keep deaths from being wasted. Wink... Wink... Deaths, plural.

Analyze the bejeezus out of everybody that took part in this little exchange. And rip apart anybody that needs it. 'K?

Both Morm and I were tied. That's two deaths. And it's quite possible that Fea thought either one of us or both of us was/were gifted. She said time and again that if everyone thought they knew that someone was a wolf, that they should vote for them, but she wanted to avoid needless deaths. Plus she wanted out. Fea was an ordinary villager, and so, technically, did not necessarily have any clue herself, but she did find the way yesterday's voting was going to be stupid.

And then she says 'analyze the bejeezus out of everybody that took part in this little exchange.' Her actions were a good way to test people's reactions. And, obviously, anyone who quite willingly took part in voting for Fea could very well be a wolf. What would there be for a wolf to lose in such a situation? A strange cry of suicide - it could mean anything. A villager might want to vote for Fea because of the chance that she would be the Changling. But so would a wolf. And a wolf wouldn't have to worry about the chance that Fea would turn out to be just another 'ordo.' That's another down, with no mark against them.

And who was at the head of the Fea lynching? Celuien.

So my top suspects remain as stated on the list: Celuien and Tom.

Question, though: Would the wolves know that the Changling picked one of them?

the guy who be short · 06-05-2006, 01:14 PM

You raise some very interesting points Durelin. One of the things that often betrays a wolf is an unwillingness to comment on an ally.

Quote:

Question, though: Would the wolves know that the Changling picked one of them?

Presumably, as they would lose their powers for a night.

The clincher for me is that he has voted durelin after Cailin clearly said "Oy! Youse guys! Stop voting Durelin." Perhaps he's handily ignored it.

--LHUNA

++TOM BOMBARIFFIC

Who knew retractables could be so fun? Ha. I'm sticking to that vote because I don't think I can return today. Farewell.

Edit: Sorry about not being able to finish my Lhunanalysis.

littlemanpoet · 06-05-2006, 01:22 PM

Confession: I was from the get-go looking for something from Saucy to seize on so I could ride him for all he was worth. Luck would have it that he got lynched first try. Why would I do such a thing? Two possibilities: either I'm a werewolf and liked the idea of riding him, or I was going for sweet revenge for past games. I must confess the latter.

And here I am doing an Anguirel (see a former game in which LMP was more righteous than he has been in this one).

Okay then, confession done.

If I am that much of a distraction to the rest of you ordos such that you need to lynch me in order to have a clearer look at who the werewolves really are, so be it.

I AM NOT DOING WHAT FEANOR DID.

I don't want to be lynched, but if you guys insist, I will go along with you. Votes being retractable, I think enough of you might do the right thing and see what I'm up to, and go instead for an actual werewolf.

-- Durelin

++ littlemanpoet

Just to be absolutely clear: I'll die if you want me to, but you will not have lynched a werewolf. Best of luck to you all. I may be around in the next 2:40 to see how things go...

the guy who be short · 06-05-2006, 01:25 PM

Sigh.

What is it with this village and innocent suicidal maniacs?

Nogrod · 06-05-2006, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Sigh.
What is it with this village and innocent suicidal maniacs?

Indeed! This is just nonsense - or risky wolf-tactics. The two first Days this villages runs rampant after some of its greatest assets (ok. I admit that I too felt Boro behaving somewhat oddly, but surely not so much as to lynch him) and then we have this suicidal madness!

What is it now?

Mith: don't break your nerves just yet, we have at least two-three days left to start performing better.

Lommy: read the thread...

Durelin: interesting analysis on Celuien and tom. That should probably be looked more carefully.

RL: We'll go playing with Lommy's little sister now as she mopes on the livingroom about our WW-craze (she really hates this game...). But we both will be back before the Day is at an end. On the next Day we will be living here together with Lommy. You might guess that we will be then really giving at last some time and real effort with this game - being around.

Mithalwen · 06-05-2006, 01:27 PM

Are you all out to rob me of what remains of my sanity? Now I have doubts about both my main suspects.

LMP - that was such a selfish thing to do if you are telling the truth that if it weren't for the fact things are so desperate I'd ..... well I really feel used and it coulkd so easily have got me killed. If you are a villager this is a team game.

LMP confesses and the only explanation I have for Fea is a a beilef Durelin was innocent. Aaaarrrrghhhhhhh

Now I am confused and not a little narked...

littlemanpoet · 06-05-2006, 02:51 PM

sorry for the potential double post...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

LMP - that was such a selfish thing to do if you are telling the truth that if it weren't for the fact things are so desperate I'd ..... well I really feel used and it coulkd so easily have got me killed. If you are a villager this is a team game.

I didn't trust him. Look at it this way: I relieved the seer of having to waste a dream on somebody who HAD to be dealt with one way or another in that he is always so dominant. This was one way, and YOU DID choose to follow some good reasoning, Mithalwen, so you bear as much blame as I in Saucy's lynching.

littlemanpoet · 06-05-2006, 03:13 PM

I'm not going to say who I think the seer is, but if I'm right, Saucy was dreamt on Night One. (darn it) On Night Two I was dreamt and found to be innocent. Guy was dreamt Night Three and found to be innocent. I'm really getting more certain of this the more I read, based on context. Mormegil was dreamt on Night Four, and found to be innocent.

I am not going to out who I believe to be the seer.

Add to the above Cailin's claims as the assumed Changeling, that Mormegil, Guy & Durelin are innocent, and that she doesn't know about, but suspects me.

Based on this theory:

known innocents
Caranlondien
Durelin
Guy
Mormegil
littlemanpoet
Cailín

unknown (so far)
Mithalwen
Celuien
Lhuna
Nogrod
Lommy
tom

littlemanpoet · 06-05-2006, 03:16 PM

Good moves, people.

-- littlemanpoet

++ tom bombariffic

littlemanpoet · 06-05-2006, 03:24 PM

Correction to my last post of who I think was dreamt:

Night One: Saucy
Night Two: littlemanpoet
Night Three: Mithalwen (I think)
Night Four: Mormegil
Night Five: Nogrod (I think)

Just the way it looks to me.

Durelin · 06-05-2006, 01:33 PM

*smacks herself*

Well, I suppose that's a way to prove your innocence. Or a good gamble for a wolf.

You've just gone and made this all more difficult, lmp. I would think you might be covering for Tom, except that it's too early to feel that Tom is actually in danger of being lynched.

I'd say this almost garuantees your innocence. But only almost. You're certainly still at risk for being lynched, and many might assume that this gamble is too much for a wolf, and so would assume your innocence. The odds might be for letting you live, so perhaps this would be a wise move for a wolf.

But for now, I still think you're innocent.

EDIT: Cross-posted with last three people...

06-05-2006, 01:22 PM	#3
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Okay, I'll do it. Confession: I was from the get-go looking for something from Saucy to seize on so I could ride him for all he was worth. Luck would have it that he got lynched first try. Why would I do such a thing? Two possibilities: either I'm a werewolf and liked the idea of riding him, or I was going for sweet revenge for past games. I must confess the latter. And here I am doing an Anguirel (see a former game in which LMP was more righteous than he has been in this one). Okay then, confession done. If I am that much of a distraction to the rest of you ordos such that you need to lynch me in order to have a clearer look at who the werewolves really are, so be it. I AM NOT DOING WHAT FEANOR DID. I don't want to be lynched, but if you guys insist, I will go along with you. Votes being retractable, I think enough of you might do the right thing and see what I'm up to, and go instead for an actual werewolf. -- Durelin ++ littlemanpoet Just to be absolutely clear: I'll die if you want me to, but you will not have lynched a werewolf. Best of luck to you all. I may be around in the next 2:40 to see how things go...

06-05-2006, 01:27 PM	#6
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Are you all out to rob me of what remains of my sanity? Now I have doubts about both my main suspects. LMP - that was such a selfish thing to do if you are telling the truth that if it weren't for the fact things are so desperate I'd ..... well I really feel used and it coulkd so easily have got me killed. If you are a villager this is a team game. LMP confesses and the only explanation I have for Fea is a a beilef Durelin was innocent. Aaaarrrrghhhhhhh Now I am confused and not a little narked... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

06-05-2006, 03:13 PM	#8
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	I'm not going to say who I think the seer is, but if I'm right, Saucy was dreamt on Night One. (darn it) On Night Two I was dreamt and found to be innocent. Guy was dreamt Night Three and found to be innocent. I'm really getting more certain of this the more I read, based on context. Mormegil was dreamt on Night Four, and found to be innocent. I am not going to out who I believe to be the seer. Add to the above Cailin's claims as the assumed Changeling, that Mormegil, Guy & Durelin are innocent, and that she doesn't know about, but suspects me. Based on this theory: known innocents Caranlondien Durelin Guy Mormegil littlemanpoet Cailín unknown (so far) Mithalwen Celuien Lhuna Nogrod Lommy tom Last edited by littlemanpoet; 06-05-2006 at 03:18 PM.

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06-05-2006, 01:25 PM	#4
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Sigh. What is it with this village and innocent suicidal maniacs?

06-05-2006, 03:16 PM	#9
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Good moves, people. -- littlemanpoet ++ tom bombariffic

06-05-2006, 03:24 PM	#10
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Correction to my last post of who I think was dreamt: Night One: Saucy Night Two: littlemanpoet Night Three: Mithalwen (I think) Night Four: Mormegil Night Five: Nogrod (I think) Just the way it looks to me.

06-05-2006, 01:33 PM	#11
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	smacks herself Well, I suppose that's a way to prove your innocence. Or a good gamble for a wolf. You've just gone and made this all more difficult, lmp. I would think you might be covering for Tom, except that it's too early to feel that Tom is actually in danger of being lynched. I'd say this almost garuantees your innocence. But only almost. You're certainly still at risk for being lynched, and many might assume that this gamble is too much for a wolf, and so would assume your innocence. The odds might be for letting you live, so perhaps this would be a wise move for a wolf. But for now, I still think you're innocent. EDIT: Cross-posted with last three people...